There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 79,111 views 699 comments
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563
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm
Goran_K says
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
564
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm
marcus says
Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
Goran_K saysBut if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
565
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm
It’s almost certain that Ginsburgs seat will be filled by a conservative.
567
socal2
2018 Nov 6, 7:37pm
marcus says
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
568
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:41pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:41pm
The historical average pickup by non incumbents is 28 seats in the house and 2 senate seats.
So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected) and lose 4 - 5 senate seats (totally unexpected).
This isn’t a blue wave.
So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected) and lose 4 - 5 senate seats (totally unexpected).
This isn’t a blue wave.
569
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:43pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:43pm
Goran_K says
Well, the refugees got a lot of free water bottles from his campaign (donors).
Finally, Hollywood gave up it's wealth to the poor.
Good bye Beto. All that Hollywood money for naught.
Well, the refugees got a lot of free water bottles from his campaign (donors).
Finally, Hollywood gave up it's wealth to the poor.
570
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:45pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:45pm
Aphroman says
Losing 5 senate seats looks like a crushing defeat. Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
socal2 saysmarcus saysdon't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?
Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.
What does that look like to you?
It looks like they flipped the House
What does it look like to you?
Losing 5 senate seats looks like a crushing defeat. Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
571
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:46pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:46pm
Aphroman says
IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
What does it look like to you?
IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
572
SoTex
2018 Nov 6, 7:47pm
SoTex
2018 Nov 6, 7:47pm
Goran_K says
Yup, they were just yacking about that on the newz..
But Guam! har har
Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
Yup, they were just yacking about that on the newz..
But Guam! har har
573
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
Goran_K says
Closer to 35 or more, apparently.
So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected)
Closer to 35 or more, apparently.
574
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm
marcus says
Marcus, the Republicans already got Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota . They're already Up 3, and have a good chance of gaining Arizona and Missouri.
What REALLY helped the Dems is that liberal Supreme State Supreme Court Judges forced a pro-Dem redistricting of Pennsylvania.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
Marcus, the Republicans already got Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota . They're already Up 3, and have a good chance of gaining Arizona and Missouri.
What REALLY helped the Dems is that liberal Supreme State Supreme Court Judges forced a pro-Dem redistricting of Pennsylvania.
575
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:52pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 7:52pm
Ymarcus says
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
Aphroman saysWhat does it look like to you?
IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.
I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
576
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:57pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 7:57pm
Goran_K says
I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.
I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked), that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very optimistic and hopeful prediction. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.
You're disappointed right now.
I'm not.
Not that I see you as being honest (with yourself or the forum) enough to admit that I'm right about that.
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.
I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked), that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very optimistic and hopeful prediction. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.
You're disappointed right now.
I'm not.
Not that I see you as being honest (with yourself or the forum) enough to admit that I'm right about that.
577
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:01pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:01pm
marcus says
Your expectations must be low. Trump can replace federal judges at will for the next two years with a solid senate majority including the SCOTUS, no more Gorsuch or Kavanaugh nail biters. Also Trump being impeached out of office is now impossible.
The house thing sucks (true) but was expected.
Just ask yourself this. Would you rather own the POTUS, solid majority in the senate, solid majority in SCOTUS or small majority in the house?
We know the truth Marcus.
Goran_K saysYou thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).
Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.
I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked, that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very opimistic. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.
You're disappointed right now.
I'm not.
Not that I see you as being honest enough to admit that I'm right about that.
Your expectations must be low. Trump can replace federal judges at will for the next two years with a solid senate majority including the SCOTUS, no more Gorsuch or Kavanaugh nail biters. Also Trump being impeached out of office is now impossible.
The house thing sucks (true) but was expected.
Just ask yourself this. Would you rather own the POTUS, solid majority in the senate, solid majority in SCOTUS or small majority in the house?
We know the truth Marcus.
578
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:08pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:08pm
Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
579
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:09pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:09pm
marcus says
I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
That seems ... peculiar.
Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
That seems ... peculiar.
580
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:10pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:10pm
Just got a 4th Senate Seat, called by several outlets now.
That's Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.
The Dems had 26 seats up for a vote, and the Republicans took 20% of those. And most of those were in invulnerable in Deep Blue. Almost any Senate Seat the GOP has a chance to take, they took and willl take.
Sinema to be disappointed next.
That's Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.
The Dems had 26 seats up for a vote, and the Republicans took 20% of those. And most of those were in invulnerable in Deep Blue. Almost any Senate Seat the GOP has a chance to take, they took and willl take.
Sinema to be disappointed next.
581
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:14pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:14pm
Goran_K says
I never said that. And going in to today, I had close to zero hope for that.
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
THe thing you don't get is that I respect the analysts far more than you, so I didn't have real hopes for the senate, but was concerned about the house.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
I never said that. And going in to today, I had close to zero hope for that.
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
THe thing you don't get is that I respect the analysts far more than you, so I didn't have real hopes for the senate, but was concerned about the house.
582
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:17pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:17pm
Just a reminder that Cook, Sabato, Nate Silver, etc. etc. went into today with the Dems winning something like 30-50 seats.
583
socal2
2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm
marcus says
Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
584
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Actually Nates average and median was something like 36 to 38. Very close to what's happening.
Just a reminder that Cook, Sabato, Nate Silver, etc. etc. went into today with the Dems winning something like 30-50 seats.
Actually Nates average and median was something like 36 to 38. Very close to what's happening.
585
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:20pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:20pm
socal2 says
No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio. Trump has shown he has both states.
marcus saysAS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.
Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio. Trump has shown he has both states.
586
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
Aphroman says
But were the Dems supposed to lose 4 (probably 5) senate seats? Not even Republicans thought that would happen.
Goran_K saysmarcus saysIs that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?
Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?
That seems ... peculiar.
POTUS, Senate and SCOTUS were all already locked up...
But were the Dems supposed to lose 4 (probably 5) senate seats? Not even Republicans thought that would happen.
587
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm
Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).
588
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:22pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:22pm
marcus says
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
589
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:26pm
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:26pm
Goran_K says
Are you sure about that?
Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:
"Floridians approved a constitutional amendment to automatically restore voting rights to people with felony convictions once they complete their sentences, a historic move expanding the right to vote to about 1.4 million people and reverses a state policy rooted in the Jim Crow South.
***
People convicted of murder and sexual offenses are exempt from the amendment and won’t have their rights automatically restored.
***
The 1.4 million people in the state who have been disenfranchised by that policy represent an estimated 10 percent of Florida’s voting population and a quarter of the total disenfranchised population in the United States."
No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio.
Are you sure about that?
Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:
"Floridians approved a constitutional amendment to automatically restore voting rights to people with felony convictions once they complete their sentences, a historic move expanding the right to vote to about 1.4 million people and reverses a state policy rooted in the Jim Crow South.
***
People convicted of murder and sexual offenses are exempt from the amendment and won’t have their rights automatically restored.
***
The 1.4 million people in the state who have been disenfranchised by that policy represent an estimated 10 percent of Florida’s voting population and a quarter of the total disenfranchised population in the United States."
591
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:30pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:30pm
Goran_K says
He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5
Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
This is based on polls.
He said 80% chance it's between +2 for democrats and +4 for republicans.
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5
Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
This is based on polls.
He said 80% chance it's between +2 for democrats and +4 for republicans.
592
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:32pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:32pm
marcus says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Goran_K saysHow many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5
Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
This is based on polls.
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
593
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
marcus says
Only care what he said before today. Like I said, adjusting a model as the test of the model is ongoing is not a vindication of the model.
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5, Huge Extra Protein Shake Gains of Doom! in the Senate
Nate just now said
Only care what he said before today. Like I said, adjusting a model as the test of the model is ongoing is not a vindication of the model.
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5, Huge Extra Protein Shake Gains of Doom! in the Senate
594
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
Goran_K says
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
595
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm
Goran_K says
Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.
Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
596
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm
marcus says
Uh because they’re wrong?
Goran_K saysThat is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
Uh because they’re wrong?
597
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5
Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
598
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm
Goran_K says
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
Uh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
599
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm
Pmarcus says
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Bet confirmed?
Goran_K saysUh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Bet confirmed?
600
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm
Goran_K says
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
601
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Imarcus says
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.
Pay me.
@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
Goran_K saysYes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100.
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.
Pay me.
@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
602
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Senate = Republican
House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
« First « Previous Comments 563 - 602 of 699 Next » Last » Search these comments
Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.