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1
mell
2018 Dec 22, 9:31pm
Could go to $500 if they didn't cook their books for the last quarter and actually turn around to profitability. Long term though they will lose out against Porsche et al, companies that know how to manufacture good cars cost-effectively on a large scale without subsidies. Maybe turn around to roughly $2/sh eps, then apply a forward p/e of 200 (hype multiplier) to roughly arrive at $500.
2
Eman
2018 Dec 22, 9:35pm
Eman
2018 Dec 22, 9:35pm
Patrick,
Have you driven a Tesla? It’s a phenomenal car.
I have a tennis friend who made it huge with TSLA. He read Steve Jobs’s book where Steve mentioned that if you believe in a product, make a huge bet, walkaway and wait. He did just that. He put his whole life savings into TSLA when it was in the $20’s. When the stock skyrocketed, he sold some, bought a house all cash, bought himself a brand new Tesla, quit his job and opened his own consulting firm.
Peter Thiel said “Don’t bet against Elon.”
Whenever you figure out the valuation, let me know. If the stock comes back down to $250-$260/share, I’ll pick some up.
You can test drive my Model S anytime. Let me forewarn that after driving a Tesla, you won’t want to buy an ICE car ever again except maybe the supercars. However, I plan to buy the Tesla Roadster so no ICE supercar for me. ?
One happy Tesla car owner,
E-Man
Have you driven a Tesla? It’s a phenomenal car.
I have a tennis friend who made it huge with TSLA. He read Steve Jobs’s book where Steve mentioned that if you believe in a product, make a huge bet, walkaway and wait. He did just that. He put his whole life savings into TSLA when it was in the $20’s. When the stock skyrocketed, he sold some, bought a house all cash, bought himself a brand new Tesla, quit his job and opened his own consulting firm.
Peter Thiel said “Don’t bet against Elon.”
Whenever you figure out the valuation, let me know. If the stock comes back down to $250-$260/share, I’ll pick some up.
You can test drive my Model S anytime. Let me forewarn that after driving a Tesla, you won’t want to buy an ICE car ever again except maybe the supercars. However, I plan to buy the Tesla Roadster so no ICE supercar for me. ?
One happy Tesla car owner,
E-Man
4
Booger
2018 Dec 23, 4:47am
Booger
2018 Dec 23, 4:47am
Personally I prefer to buy stocks in companies that are actually making money. Buying Tesla stock at this time isn't investing, it's gambling.
5
BayArea
2018 Dec 23, 5:31am
BayArea
2018 Dec 23, 5:31am
Patrick, my thoughts:
- An all electric vehicle that’s beautiful, reliable, and has become a status symbol in the Silicon Valley. People are captivated by these cars.
- Elon can’t build them fast enough to meet demand. Engineers I work with are frustrated that they continue to get their commit date pushed out for the model3.
- Have you noticed that these cars aren’t depreciating? Look up the price of a used modelS from 2013 or 2014.
- Although I’m a believer in the product, my Finance friends say the same thing - the stock has too much risk because it is over speculated. Compare Tesla’s market cap to GM and Ford. Compare how many cars each sells and the revenue each brings in. Take a deep breath and try not to lose your balance once you realize the numbers. Their stock price represents massive success that hasn’t yet been realized.
- Tesla hasn’t yet released their $35k “middle class” version model3. That could be where their highest upside remains if they can get manufacturing costs down and weekly volume production up.
- An all electric vehicle that’s beautiful, reliable, and has become a status symbol in the Silicon Valley. People are captivated by these cars.
- Elon can’t build them fast enough to meet demand. Engineers I work with are frustrated that they continue to get their commit date pushed out for the model3.
- Have you noticed that these cars aren’t depreciating? Look up the price of a used modelS from 2013 or 2014.
- Although I’m a believer in the product, my Finance friends say the same thing - the stock has too much risk because it is over speculated. Compare Tesla’s market cap to GM and Ford. Compare how many cars each sells and the revenue each brings in. Take a deep breath and try not to lose your balance once you realize the numbers. Their stock price represents massive success that hasn’t yet been realized.
- Tesla hasn’t yet released their $35k “middle class” version model3. That could be where their highest upside remains if they can get manufacturing costs down and weekly volume production up.
6
theoakman
2018 Dec 23, 5:58am
BayArea says
With all the competition coming their way from companies with much more cash flow and efficiency, I can't see them come close to even justifying their stock price. I'd hate to see what a high interest rate environment does to them. They are valued like a tech company.
I'm also very alarmed by the Elon Tweets which were obviously made to try to manipulate the market and squeeze some shorts. Between that and cooking the books to pretend they were profitable, I think there must be some desperation behind the scenes.
Patrick, my thoughts:
- An all electric vehicle that’s beautiful, reliable, and has become a status symbol in the Silicon Valley. People are captivated by these cars.
- Elon can’t build them fast enough to meet demand. Engineers I work with are frustrated that they continue to get their commit date pushed out for the model3.
- Have you noticed that these cars aren’t depreciating? Look up the price of a used modelS from 2013 or 2014.
- Although I’m a believer in the product, my Finance friends say the same thing - the stock has too much risk because it is over speculated. Compare Tesla’s market cap to GM and Ford. Compare how many cars each sells and the revenue each brings in. Take a deep breath and try not to lose your balance once you realize the numbers. Their stock price represents massive success that hasn’t yet been realized.
- Tesla hasn’t yet released their $35k “middle class” version model3. That could be where their highest upside remains...
With all the competition coming their way from companies with much more cash flow and efficiency, I can't see them come close to even justifying their stock price. I'd hate to see what a high interest rate environment does to them. They are valued like a tech company.
I'm also very alarmed by the Elon Tweets which were obviously made to try to manipulate the market and squeeze some shorts. Between that and cooking the books to pretend they were profitable, I think there must be some desperation behind the scenes.
7
NDrLoR
2018 Dec 23, 7:41am
NDrLoR
2018 Dec 23, 7:41am
"Musk was spending the weekend in the Gigafactory, attempting to discover why machines weren’t functioning, why parts kept misaligning, why the software was crashing. Musk had demanded that his factories be automated as much as possible. But among the consequences of this extreme roboticization were delays and malfunctions"
Sounds like GM's first experience with robots in 1984 as their market share was falling.
Sounds like GM's first experience with robots in 1984 as their market share was falling.
8
Patrick
2018 Dec 23, 8:42am
Patrick
2018 Dec 23, 8:42am
One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.
Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?
Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?
9
rocketjoe79
2018 Dec 23, 8:59am
rocketjoe79
2018 Dec 23, 8:59am
I think the time for Tesla has passed. Way too overspeculated. I'm actually more interested in SpaceX, but only the rich can invest in non-public companies. Musk will probably start a new company to sell internet access as he get's his ~12000 satellites up. 5-7 years, tops. I think Comcast, Dish Network and other rural internet providers will be toast - unless they make a deal to license his network.
10
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 23, 9:12am
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 23, 9:12am
You know this is one I did miss. I remember when they went IPO and I just didn't see how they were going to be big. Today they are at $300.
Their cars are extremely expensive, they are not practical, repairing those is nightmare, and yet the company is filthy rich through government subsidies. So I don't understand how it works anymore.
Their cars are extremely expensive, they are not practical, repairing those is nightmare, and yet the company is filthy rich through government subsidies. So I don't understand how it works anymore.
11
Rin
2018 Dec 23, 9:39am
Rin
2018 Dec 23, 9:39am
BayArea says
That's a big part of the whole story ... it's both a fad and a status symbol. In some ways, a re-boot of the DeLorean story of the late 70s/early 80s, which 'Back to the Future' immortalized with its role as a time machine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeLorean_Motor_Company
Excerpt: "Reception by the car-buying public and automotive magazines was mixed. Although the early vehicles had impressive waiting lists of anxious consumers, the MSRP sticker price of $25,000; this is equivalent to approximately US$67,405 in 2017 was cost-prohibitive for the majority of the market — especially for what many considered to be an under-powered and impractical plaything."
I suppose, unlike DeLorean, Musk won't get taken down by a shady entrapment scheme, but the inability to get its product outside of the stupid ppl with money and delusions of grandeur, may do the trick.
Here's my thread on my friend with a Tesla ...
http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what?0#comments
An all electric vehicle that’s beautiful, reliable, and has become a status symbol in the Silicon Valley. People are captivated by these cars.
That's a big part of the whole story ... it's both a fad and a status symbol. In some ways, a re-boot of the DeLorean story of the late 70s/early 80s, which 'Back to the Future' immortalized with its role as a time machine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeLorean_Motor_Company
Excerpt: "Reception by the car-buying public and automotive magazines was mixed. Although the early vehicles had impressive waiting lists of anxious consumers, the MSRP sticker price of $25,000; this is equivalent to approximately US$67,405 in 2017 was cost-prohibitive for the majority of the market — especially for what many considered to be an under-powered and impractical plaything."
I suppose, unlike DeLorean, Musk won't get taken down by a shady entrapment scheme, but the inability to get its product outside of the stupid ppl with money and delusions of grandeur, may do the trick.
Here's my thread on my friend with a Tesla ...
http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what?0#comments
12
Evan F.
2018 Dec 23, 10:16am
Rin says
Teslas are in many ways the complete opposite of a Delorean. Teslas have gobs of power, and in spite of being luxury cars they're vastly more efficient and practical than their counterparts. That's an apples to oranges comparison if I've ever seen one.
The notion that Tesla is a flash in the pan may be off the mark now. Sure, companies like Porsche are getting into the game, but they're going to be competing with a company that has a decade jump on them in battery tech, and a battery manufacturing wing that dwarves every other company. That's Tesla's saving grace, and it's why Musk had often said Tesla isn't a car company, it's a battery company.
If they can post another profitable quarter I'll likely buy some stock long.
what many considered to be an under-powered and impractical plaything
Teslas are in many ways the complete opposite of a Delorean. Teslas have gobs of power, and in spite of being luxury cars they're vastly more efficient and practical than their counterparts. That's an apples to oranges comparison if I've ever seen one.
The notion that Tesla is a flash in the pan may be off the mark now. Sure, companies like Porsche are getting into the game, but they're going to be competing with a company that has a decade jump on them in battery tech, and a battery manufacturing wing that dwarves every other company. That's Tesla's saving grace, and it's why Musk had often said Tesla isn't a car company, it's a battery company.
If they can post another profitable quarter I'll likely buy some stock long.
13
GNL
2018 Dec 23, 10:34am
GNL
2018 Dec 23, 10:34am
"Tesla. The newest entry to the automotive industry has a market cap larger than Honda’s and is headed by Elon Musk, the modern era’s Leonardo da Vinci or Thomas Edison. Why not jump on this can’t-fail opportunity? Again, there are niggling little details. Tesla’s shares took off in 2013 when the company announced the Model S. Musk is burning cash in the billions, except for the most recent and highly suspect quarter when earnings appeared just as new funding was needed (Figure 12).ref 86Tesla began hemorrhaging senior executives right before the suspect earnings report.ref 87 The cash burn prompted Tesla to ask suppliers to give back some of their money,ref 88 rendering customer security deposits a little less secure. Tesla is supposedly making state-of-the-art cars in the desert in what are tents,ref 89 affording them an analyst-pleasing high sales-to-tent ratio. (I hasten to add that P. T. Barnum made some serious coin in tents.) Tesla had a fire at one of its factories.ref 90 What? No flame retardant on the tents? The Tesla Model 3 had a first-pass yield—the percent of cars requiring no additional work—of 14% during the last week of June compared with an industry norm of 80%. The tent-constructed cars, after making it through a rigorous inspection, began to spontaneously lose bumpers,ref 91 lock owners out of their cars,ref 92 and, on bad days, blow up.ref 93 Tesla owners are rumored to be fabricating unavailable parts to fix their own cars.ref 94 Note to Elon: hire those guys. Musk seems to have cut a few corners, like terminating “brake tests.”ref 95 The company also forgot to tell investors that the DEA (not the SEC) was investigating alleged meth and cocaine sales running through its Nevada Gigafactory.ref 96
“Tesla is the perfect metaphor for where the U.S. economy is at: a company stuffed with debt plus government subsidies, unable to deliver the wished-for miracle product—affordable electric cars—whirling around the drain into bankruptcy.”
~James Kunstler, Kunstlercast
Figure 12. Cash burn.
Musk showed evidence of brain cell burn along the way, causing some to suspect that he was popping too much Ambien, downing too many mushroom pizzas, or going heavy on the poppy seed bagels at the Nevada Gigafactory. Before-and-after videosref 97 make the new-era Musk look more like Dave Chappelle’s homeless character with the white stash. He started harassing analysts on conference calls for their “boring, boneheaded questions” about, oh, useless crap like “inventories.”ref 98Harassment of the shorts included forcing an insider posting as “Montana Skeptic” (Lawrence Fosse) to shut down his Twitter feed by complaining to Fosse’s bosses.ref 99 Elon sent one of his detractors, David Einhorn, a pair of “shorts” to mock him. Late night (early morning) Tweets include gems like jokes about being bankrupt and insolvent,ref 100which prompted fast response from the SEC (just kidding). He routinely taunted the SEC’s inability to reign him in.ref 101
“Musk is at it again. He’s doubling down on his pedophile comment.”
~James Chanos, Kynikos Associates
“You don’t think it’s strange he hasn’t sued me?”
~Elon Musk tweet, prompting a lawsuit for the “pedophile” comment
“Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can’t believe it.”
~Elon Musk tweet
“When you’re massive negative free cash flow, your 7-year bonds are trading $86 bid, and you need debt capital markets financing . . . you don’t joke about bankruptcy.”
~David Tamberrino, Goldman Sachs, on his “sell” recommendation
The fateful moment came when Musk announced that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share, well above the asking price, causing a gargantuan wad of money to change hands in the short squeeze:
“I think the Thomas Edison of our age has come off the rails. ‘Funding secured’ means he has the money lined up, or he’s guilty of market manipulation.”
~Scott Galloway, author of The Four
“Funding secured” reached meme status, and the SEC did wake up this time. Elon and Tesla scrambled to find somebody to pretend like they were the ones tendering the offer (to no avail), eventually settling with the SEC for a $20 million fine and the requisite temporary demotion of Musk from CEO to CBW (Chief Bottle Washer).ref 102 Of course, that triggered another massive short squeeze,ref 103 yet again hurting those betting against Musk. Charlie Gasparino says Tesla could be bracing for “billions of dollars in potential liability from private lawsuits,” from both market longs, shorts, and, of course, cave-dwelling pedophiles. The street hasn’t yet figured out how to price Tesla’s shares (Figure 13). I think Tesla will eventually be auctioned off for parts on the courthouse steps. Of course, all this chaos has had a huge deleterious effect on its current share price (Figure 14).
“He claimed there is a specific source of funding, so that better be true. He also claimed that there is a specific amount available for funding, so that has to be true; otherwise even if it’s not manipulation it would be fraud.”
~Harvey Pitt, former SEC chairman
Figure 13. Chick fight over a few decimal points.
Figure 14. Tesla share price."
-- Dave Collum
“Tesla is the perfect metaphor for where the U.S. economy is at: a company stuffed with debt plus government subsidies, unable to deliver the wished-for miracle product—affordable electric cars—whirling around the drain into bankruptcy.”
~James Kunstler, Kunstlercast
Figure 12. Cash burn.
Musk showed evidence of brain cell burn along the way, causing some to suspect that he was popping too much Ambien, downing too many mushroom pizzas, or going heavy on the poppy seed bagels at the Nevada Gigafactory. Before-and-after videosref 97 make the new-era Musk look more like Dave Chappelle’s homeless character with the white stash. He started harassing analysts on conference calls for their “boring, boneheaded questions” about, oh, useless crap like “inventories.”ref 98Harassment of the shorts included forcing an insider posting as “Montana Skeptic” (Lawrence Fosse) to shut down his Twitter feed by complaining to Fosse’s bosses.ref 99 Elon sent one of his detractors, David Einhorn, a pair of “shorts” to mock him. Late night (early morning) Tweets include gems like jokes about being bankrupt and insolvent,ref 100which prompted fast response from the SEC (just kidding). He routinely taunted the SEC’s inability to reign him in.ref 101
“Musk is at it again. He’s doubling down on his pedophile comment.”
~James Chanos, Kynikos Associates
“You don’t think it’s strange he hasn’t sued me?”
~Elon Musk tweet, prompting a lawsuit for the “pedophile” comment
“Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can’t believe it.”
~Elon Musk tweet
“When you’re massive negative free cash flow, your 7-year bonds are trading $86 bid, and you need debt capital markets financing . . . you don’t joke about bankruptcy.”
~David Tamberrino, Goldman Sachs, on his “sell” recommendation
The fateful moment came when Musk announced that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share, well above the asking price, causing a gargantuan wad of money to change hands in the short squeeze:
“I think the Thomas Edison of our age has come off the rails. ‘Funding secured’ means he has the money lined up, or he’s guilty of market manipulation.”
~Scott Galloway, author of The Four
“Funding secured” reached meme status, and the SEC did wake up this time. Elon and Tesla scrambled to find somebody to pretend like they were the ones tendering the offer (to no avail), eventually settling with the SEC for a $20 million fine and the requisite temporary demotion of Musk from CEO to CBW (Chief Bottle Washer).ref 102 Of course, that triggered another massive short squeeze,ref 103 yet again hurting those betting against Musk. Charlie Gasparino says Tesla could be bracing for “billions of dollars in potential liability from private lawsuits,” from both market longs, shorts, and, of course, cave-dwelling pedophiles. The street hasn’t yet figured out how to price Tesla’s shares (Figure 13). I think Tesla will eventually be auctioned off for parts on the courthouse steps. Of course, all this chaos has had a huge deleterious effect on its current share price (Figure 14).
“He claimed there is a specific source of funding, so that better be true. He also claimed that there is a specific amount available for funding, so that has to be true; otherwise even if it’s not manipulation it would be fraud.”
~Harvey Pitt, former SEC chairman
Figure 13. Chick fight over a few decimal points.
Figure 14. Tesla share price."
-- Dave Collum
14
joshuatrio
2018 Dec 23, 11:30am
joshuatrio
2018 Dec 23, 11:30am
My wife and I consider the Model X before purchasing our Highlander this year. She loved the way they look and drove, however, when they start at $84k (for a grocery getter) we decided that the Toyota was the more practical choice.
Tesla's are beautiful cars and are here to stay. I know a few people who drive them and would never go back to an ICE car due to the numerous advantages. It's only a matter of time before this technology gets cheaper and it becomes even more common.
Tesla's are beautiful cars and are here to stay. I know a few people who drive them and would never go back to an ICE car due to the numerous advantages. It's only a matter of time before this technology gets cheaper and it becomes even more common.
15
Rin
2018 Dec 23, 1:36pm
Rin
2018 Dec 23, 1:36pm
Evan F. says
Apples to pears, not oranges, sure, Tesla may have greater power, ala the electric ver of the muscle car, but everything else needs to come together for it to be a car of the masses and not some luxury fad.
Evan F. says
Let's hope that battery tech may be a way of the company's success, regardless of whether or not the car does.
WineHorror1 says
A person like Musk could have easily parked money into our firm, earned 20% per year, and used that for collateral to raise money for his future ventures. It's sad but the truth of the matter is that our firm attracts the sovereign funds and trust fund baby foundations instead of real entrepreneurial types who could use our annual yields, to fund their enterprises. C'est la vie.
That's an apples to oranges comparison if I've ever seen one.
Apples to pears, not oranges, sure, Tesla may have greater power, ala the electric ver of the muscle car, but everything else needs to come together for it to be a car of the masses and not some luxury fad.
Evan F. says
and a battery manufacturing wing that dwarves every other company. That's Tesla's saving grace
Let's hope that battery tech may be a way of the company's success, regardless of whether or not the car does.
WineHorror1 says
“He claimed there is a specific source of funding, so that better be true. He also claimed that there is a specific amount available for funding, so that has to be true; otherwise even if it’s not manipulation it would be fraud.”
A person like Musk could have easily parked money into our firm, earned 20% per year, and used that for collateral to raise money for his future ventures. It's sad but the truth of the matter is that our firm attracts the sovereign funds and trust fund baby foundations instead of real entrepreneurial types who could use our annual yields, to fund their enterprises. C'est la vie.
16
Hircus
2018 Dec 23, 7:47pm
Hircus
2018 Dec 23, 7:47pm
I've been continually amazed at how great of a product they make. I'm just so impressed that they entered a mature industry where everyone more or less did things the same way for so long, yet managed to successfully innovate in so many ways. They're skilled, agile, and brave.
I don't know much about the auto industry, but I have this gut feeling that Big Auto suffers from age, and most companies are filled with employees that worry more about keeping their job than being high performers. The individual's motto is "I just need to be a little better than my coworkers". The employees prefer the safety enjoyed by not rocking the boat, opposed to taking a risk in pursuit of major change / improvement. Meanwhile, Tesla is taking names and kicking ass.
I think they will hold this advantage for at least the near future. Tesla is "cool", electric is eco friendly, and self-driving is a revolutionary tech and moment for humanity. They will find it easy to attract top talent because people feel good about their work. When people think "electric car", or "self driving", they think Tesla - I have a hard time imagining that changing within the next 5, maybe 10 years. But past 10 years I have no idea - things change.
One thing I do worry is that China will steal their battery tech, and they will lose a major competitive advantage when that happens.
I don't know much about the auto industry, but I have this gut feeling that Big Auto suffers from age, and most companies are filled with employees that worry more about keeping their job than being high performers. The individual's motto is "I just need to be a little better than my coworkers". The employees prefer the safety enjoyed by not rocking the boat, opposed to taking a risk in pursuit of major change / improvement. Meanwhile, Tesla is taking names and kicking ass.
I think they will hold this advantage for at least the near future. Tesla is "cool", electric is eco friendly, and self-driving is a revolutionary tech and moment for humanity. They will find it easy to attract top talent because people feel good about their work. When people think "electric car", or "self driving", they think Tesla - I have a hard time imagining that changing within the next 5, maybe 10 years. But past 10 years I have no idea - things change.
One thing I do worry is that China will steal their battery tech, and they will lose a major competitive advantage when that happens.
17
B.A.C.A.H.
2018 Dec 24, 11:04am
B.A.C.A.H.
2018 Dec 24, 11:04am
Patrick says
Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
That's to say nothing of their utility as feedstock for all manner of manufactured stuff.
I reckon, even at $500 per barrel for crude oil, for what you pay for what it can do for you, (ignoring the Climate Change consequences), the liquid hydrocarbon fuels are The Bargain of the Millenia. Try going on some glamorous travel to hip destination in Europe or Cambodia or whatever on a battery powered aircraft.
Lots of hydrocarbon used to extrace and process the materials used in making those batteries.
Hydrocarbon is gonna be around for a long time. Solar and battery storage of it will have a place too.
I know some folks who made mid-life career transitions to different aspects of solar. One of them is a neighbor who has an incarceration record, busy working as an installer on Bay Area Hipsters' roofs. That could be the best way to "invest" in solar: invest in making a career of it.
One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.
Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?
Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
That's to say nothing of their utility as feedstock for all manner of manufactured stuff.
I reckon, even at $500 per barrel for crude oil, for what you pay for what it can do for you, (ignoring the Climate Change consequences), the liquid hydrocarbon fuels are The Bargain of the Millenia. Try going on some glamorous travel to hip destination in Europe or Cambodia or whatever on a battery powered aircraft.
Lots of hydrocarbon used to extrace and process the materials used in making those batteries.
Hydrocarbon is gonna be around for a long time. Solar and battery storage of it will have a place too.
I know some folks who made mid-life career transitions to different aspects of solar. One of them is a neighbor who has an incarceration record, busy working as an installer on Bay Area Hipsters' roofs. That could be the best way to "invest" in solar: invest in making a career of it.
18
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Dec 24, 11:08am
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Dec 24, 11:08am
Hircus says
There needs to be a communication made that if China steals the battery IP, it's going to mean a 100% tariff on all Chinese Vehicles and anything battery powered, including smartphones.
One thing I do worry is that China will steal their battery tech, and they will lose a major competitive advantage when that happens.
There needs to be a communication made that if China steals the battery IP, it's going to mean a 100% tariff on all Chinese Vehicles and anything battery powered, including smartphones.
19
RWSGFY
2018 Dec 24, 2:34pm
RWSGFY
2018 Dec 24, 2:34pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Wait a sec, didn't Elon declare that all Tesla IP is free to use by anyone?
Hircus saysOne thing I do worry is that China will steal their battery tech, and they will lose a major competitive advantage when that happens.
There needs to be a communication made that if China steals the battery IP, it's going to mean a 100% tariff on all Chinese Vehicles and anything battery powered, including smartphones.
Wait a sec, didn't Elon declare that all Tesla IP is free to use by anyone?
20
JZ
2018 Dec 24, 3:32pm
JZ
2018 Dec 24, 3:32pm
1. Definition of investment -> A projection of positive cash flow in the future with good confidence, trading at a reasonable price with safety margin.
2. I do NOT think anybody will call Telsla an “investment” based on above definition.
3. If you ask Warren Buffet about “investment” his will pull out a list of 3000 car companies in the 1930s and tell you all have died but 3. The remaining 3 makes little money and is at the brink of bankrupcy all the time. Conclusion, car business is a BAD business. Chewing gum and See’s candy are good business. Would electrical car be a good business? It is still a car.
4. A good product does NOT mean a good business.
5. Telsla cars can be cool, but please look at Porsche and Audi’s 2019 Electrical cars. I am sure you don’t want to drive Telsla any more.
6. So if know you are speculating about the electrical car industry, there are competitors coming and make it profitless because Elon can NOT defend the competition.
7. If you think you are speculating on Tesla being cool and sexier than GM’s Volt, understand that sexy E cars are coming to blow Telsla off the road.
2. I do NOT think anybody will call Telsla an “investment” based on above definition.
3. If you ask Warren Buffet about “investment” his will pull out a list of 3000 car companies in the 1930s and tell you all have died but 3. The remaining 3 makes little money and is at the brink of bankrupcy all the time. Conclusion, car business is a BAD business. Chewing gum and See’s candy are good business. Would electrical car be a good business? It is still a car.
4. A good product does NOT mean a good business.
5. Telsla cars can be cool, but please look at Porsche and Audi’s 2019 Electrical cars. I am sure you don’t want to drive Telsla any more.
6. So if know you are speculating about the electrical car industry, there are competitors coming and make it profitless because Elon can NOT defend the competition.
7. If you think you are speculating on Tesla being cool and sexier than GM’s Volt, understand that sexy E cars are coming to blow Telsla off the road.
21
Booger
2018 Dec 24, 7:34pm
Booger
2018 Dec 24, 7:34pm
Rin says
You don't have to entrap someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.
I suppose, unlike DeLorean, Musk won't get taken down by a shady entrapment scheme
You don't have to entrap someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.
22
Automan Empire
2018 Dec 24, 8:22pm
Automan Empire
2018 Dec 24, 8:22pm
Booger saysBooger says
It's almost like he's running a Francisco d'Anconia "Careless Playboy" act. Act conspicuously crazy while suckers invest, give 'em the "Well what did you expect?" when the shell game all crashes down.
someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.
It's almost like he's running a Francisco d'Anconia "Careless Playboy" act. Act conspicuously crazy while suckers invest, give 'em the "Well what did you expect?" when the shell game all crashes down.
23
Patrick
2018 Dec 25, 11:28am
Patrick
2018 Dec 25, 11:28am
Booger says
Would it be the same if they showed him having a few beers?
You don't have to entrap someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.
Would it be the same if they showed him having a few beers?
24
Booger
2018 Dec 25, 11:39am
Booger
2018 Dec 25, 11:39am
joshuatrio says
Sure, but those cheaper electric cars won't be Tesla's.
It's only a matter of time before this technology gets cheaper and it becomes even more common.
Sure, but those cheaper electric cars won't be Tesla's.
25
Booger
2018 Dec 25, 11:39am
Booger
2018 Dec 25, 11:39am
joshuatrio says
Sure, but those cheaper electric cars won't be Tesla's.
It's only a matter of time before this technology gets cheaper and it becomes even more common.
Sure, but those cheaper electric cars won't be Tesla's.
27
gsr
2018 Dec 25, 11:59am
E-man says
Absolutely agree.
You can test drive my Model S anytime. Let me forewarn that after driving a Tesla, you won’t want to buy an ICE car ever again except maybe the supercars.
Absolutely agree.
28
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 25, 12:30pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 25, 12:30pm
gsr says
I've driven a Tesla. I would have to say it's nothing impressive. Interior was cheap, like Honda Civic. The giant tablet in the middle was some strange clunky mess, felt like a cheap Android tablet. Motor sure feels strong, it's electric so it doesn't spool up or anything, its like a giant stepper motor.
Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.
E-man says
You can test drive my Model S anytime. Let me forewarn that after driving a Tesla, you won’t want to buy an ICE car ever again except maybe the supercars.
Absolutely agree.
I've driven a Tesla. I would have to say it's nothing impressive. Interior was cheap, like Honda Civic. The giant tablet in the middle was some strange clunky mess, felt like a cheap Android tablet. Motor sure feels strong, it's electric so it doesn't spool up or anything, its like a giant stepper motor.
Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.
30
gsr
2018 Dec 25, 5:56pm
FortWayneIndiana says
Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.
Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.
Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.
32
Eman
2018 Dec 25, 6:36pm
Eman
2018 Dec 25, 6:36pm
gsr says
LOL! You called him out. I have had between 30-40 people test-drove my 75D. Some of them were like wow. They asked how come they don’t see Tesla owners drive like that. I said why? To piss off others? We know the power is there whenever we need it. No need to show it off and give Tesla owners a bad rep.
My neighbor ended up buying one. After a few months of owning it, she said there’s no other car like a Tesla. Her previous car was a 2011 Lexus ES350.
Wife’s siblings bought two Model 3 LR (one each) using my account to cut in-line.
I did a YoY cost analysis a couple months ago. 14,000 miles driven, YoY increase in electricity usage was 3,600 kWh. YoY delta in electricity bill was $188. Got 85 kWh from Chargepoint which costed me $23. Total cost was $211. I was averaging 290 wH/mi. Looks like I got around 1,200-1,400 kWh of free charge from superchargers.
My previous car was a 2003 MBZ E500, which averaged around 18 mpg. At $4/gal, it would have costed me $3,111 in gas. The delta in fuel consumption was around $2,900/year, and I haven’t factored in the time savings from the diamond lane.
We already see ourselves buying at least 2 more Tesla’s. It’s likely going be a Model Y and a Roadster but it’s too early to say at the moment.
FortWayneIndiana says
Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.
Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.
LOL! You called him out. I have had between 30-40 people test-drove my 75D. Some of them were like wow. They asked how come they don’t see Tesla owners drive like that. I said why? To piss off others? We know the power is there whenever we need it. No need to show it off and give Tesla owners a bad rep.
My neighbor ended up buying one. After a few months of owning it, she said there’s no other car like a Tesla. Her previous car was a 2011 Lexus ES350.
Wife’s siblings bought two Model 3 LR (one each) using my account to cut in-line.
I did a YoY cost analysis a couple months ago. 14,000 miles driven, YoY increase in electricity usage was 3,600 kWh. YoY delta in electricity bill was $188. Got 85 kWh from Chargepoint which costed me $23. Total cost was $211. I was averaging 290 wH/mi. Looks like I got around 1,200-1,400 kWh of free charge from superchargers.
My previous car was a 2003 MBZ E500, which averaged around 18 mpg. At $4/gal, it would have costed me $3,111 in gas. The delta in fuel consumption was around $2,900/year, and I haven’t factored in the time savings from the diamond lane.
We already see ourselves buying at least 2 more Tesla’s. It’s likely going be a Model Y and a Roadster but it’s too early to say at the moment.
33
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 25, 8:09pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 25, 8:09pm
gsr says
It would blow a hole in my budget with electricity costs. I'd need an expensive charger, or you are charging it all night to not go very far. You need a lot of electricity to drive it. If you like it, good for you. I test drove it, did not like it at all. I still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo. Super expensive.
FortWayneIndiana says
Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.
Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.
It would blow a hole in my budget with electricity costs. I'd need an expensive charger, or you are charging it all night to not go very far. You need a lot of electricity to drive it. If you like it, good for you. I test drove it, did not like it at all. I still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo. Super expensive.
34
Evan F.
2018 Dec 26, 2:35am
FortWayneIndiana says
Lol just a 'bit' more horsepower. Top of the line Civic type R has 306 hp and 295 lb/ft torque. Tesla P100D has 600 hp and 950 lb/ft. Just a bit.
I still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo
Lol just a 'bit' more horsepower. Top of the line Civic type R has 306 hp and 295 lb/ft torque. Tesla P100D has 600 hp and 950 lb/ft. Just a bit.
35
Rin
2018 Dec 26, 10:26am
Rin
2018 Dec 26, 10:26am
Actually, the Porsche all electric is only going to cost $85K, with 600 HP & a brief re-charge window like some 15 mins per 80% capacity. And since we're talking about luxury cars, not ones which regular working ppl need to get, from point A to B, I don't see Tesla outlasting the established brands for non-essentials i.e. luxury market.
And this is where I draw the DeLorean comparison because although I wasn't born at the time, when John DeLorean unveiled his first beauties, they looked space-aged, aerodynamic, and all that jazz, inspiring the NASA loving generation, just slightly older than me. In the end, however, the "other" design work of Giugiaro, aside from the DeLorean, like the Maserati, Lamborghini, and Ferrari, lasted the test of time.
Unless Musk can get into the $30K-$35K market space and get ppl to want to purchase a Tesla over let's say a Nissan Maxima then he's in the world where the other luxury brands will have his dinner, since they missed the brunch window.
And this is where I draw the DeLorean comparison because although I wasn't born at the time, when John DeLorean unveiled his first beauties, they looked space-aged, aerodynamic, and all that jazz, inspiring the NASA loving generation, just slightly older than me. In the end, however, the "other" design work of Giugiaro, aside from the DeLorean, like the Maserati, Lamborghini, and Ferrari, lasted the test of time.
Unless Musk can get into the $30K-$35K market space and get ppl to want to purchase a Tesla over let's say a Nissan Maxima then he's in the world where the other luxury brands will have his dinner, since they missed the brunch window.
36
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 26, 2:00pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Dec 26, 2:00pm
Evan F. says
You can like your Tesla all you want, more power to you. I know there are people who like em. But I don't, I tried, didn't love it. They are not practical, cheaply made interior, expensive as hell, need a special charge station to charge, and completely unproven. They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations, you'll be hitching a ride. It's a very expensive electric motor toy for those with money burning their pockets.
FortWayneIndiana saysI still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo
Lol just a 'bit' more horsepower. Top of the line Civic type R has 306 hp and 295 lb/ft torque. Tesla P100D has 600 hp and 950 lb/ft. Just a bit.
You can like your Tesla all you want, more power to you. I know there are people who like em. But I don't, I tried, didn't love it. They are not practical, cheaply made interior, expensive as hell, need a special charge station to charge, and completely unproven. They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations, you'll be hitching a ride. It's a very expensive electric motor toy for those with money burning their pockets.
37
Rin
2018 Dec 26, 2:32pm
Rin
2018 Dec 26, 2:32pm
FortWayneIndiana says
I think you said it right there ... California.
I live in New England and for the most part, the Tesla is considered a toy for those with money to burn.
Even in finance, the ppl with cash to burn tend to prefer the Porsches, Ferraris, etc, over a Tesla because for them, money doesn't matter. They can afford the petrol bill, whether it's $1.5 or $5 per gallon.
They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations, you'll be hitching a ride. It's a very expensive electric motor toy for those with money burning their pockets.
I think you said it right there ... California.
I live in New England and for the most part, the Tesla is considered a toy for those with money to burn.
Even in finance, the ppl with cash to burn tend to prefer the Porsches, Ferraris, etc, over a Tesla because for them, money doesn't matter. They can afford the petrol bill, whether it's $1.5 or $5 per gallon.
38
Booger
2018 Dec 26, 2:33pm
Booger
2018 Dec 26, 2:33pm
A Chevy Volt is really a much more practical car when compared to a Tesla.
39
Evan F.
2018 Dec 26, 3:11pm
Rin says
Come on, this is standard marketing drivel that every auto maker vomits out to hype them up. Is it true? Maybe. The price point will likely be accurate, but to get the fast charging option and that horsepower rating you're undoubtedly going to have to pay a lot more than $85k.
I've seen pics of the Mission E/Taycan/whatever and it looks great, and honestly, the more players in the electric space, the better. Elon Musk would undoubtedly say the same thing. But it's a little disingenuous to suggest that a Model S is a toy and not say the same about a comparably priced Porsche, especially considering the S can squeeze in 7 seats where the Taycan is a 2+2.
Rin says
Just one more rebuttal of the Delorean comparison: Delorean shipped about 9000 DMC-12's in total. Tesla has shipped well north of 300,000 units and their sales figures are still accelerating. And I would argue that Tesla's design is in some ways better than the Delorean... The Teslas have simple, smooth lines. They don't look jaw dropping but they sure look nice and clean. The DMC is iconic, but boxy and awkward.
Actually, the Porsche all electric is only going to cost $85K, with 600 HP & a brief re-charge window like some 15 mins per 80% capacity.
Come on, this is standard marketing drivel that every auto maker vomits out to hype them up. Is it true? Maybe. The price point will likely be accurate, but to get the fast charging option and that horsepower rating you're undoubtedly going to have to pay a lot more than $85k.
I've seen pics of the Mission E/Taycan/whatever and it looks great, and honestly, the more players in the electric space, the better. Elon Musk would undoubtedly say the same thing. But it's a little disingenuous to suggest that a Model S is a toy and not say the same about a comparably priced Porsche, especially considering the S can squeeze in 7 seats where the Taycan is a 2+2.
Rin says
And this is where I draw the DeLorean comparison because although I wasn't born at the time, when John DeLorean unveiled his first beauties, they looked space-aged, aerodynamic, and all that jazz, inspiring the NASA loving generation, just slightly older than me
Just one more rebuttal of the Delorean comparison: Delorean shipped about 9000 DMC-12's in total. Tesla has shipped well north of 300,000 units and their sales figures are still accelerating. And I would argue that Tesla's design is in some ways better than the Delorean... The Teslas have simple, smooth lines. They don't look jaw dropping but they sure look nice and clean. The DMC is iconic, but boxy and awkward.
40
Evan F.
2018 Dec 26, 3:22pm
FortWayneIndiana says
Nope, your can use charge point, supercharger, etc. As of this month there are 20,000 charging stations in the US. Sure, there are more gas stations, but you're likely within range of a charging station anywhere in the US. Just because you think there are no stations doesn't mean there aren't. You're just not looking for them because you don't need to use them.
need a special charge station to charge, and completely unproven. They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations
Nope, your can use charge point, supercharger, etc. As of this month there are 20,000 charging stations in the US. Sure, there are more gas stations, but you're likely within range of a charging station anywhere in the US. Just because you think there are no stations doesn't mean there aren't. You're just not looking for them because you don't need to use them.
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It's over $300, with a loss of $10/share, but revenue just keeps going up. Hard to figure out what a fair price is since it doesn't make money yet.
How would you come up with a fair price per share?