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China: No Longer the Wave of the Future


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2019 Apr 9, 8:08am   4,644 views  53 comments

by cmdrda2leak   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  


Not too long ago the West was breezily talking of China as if the 1989 Tiananmen Square debacle and its aftermath that saw the Chinese government kill some 10,000 protesters and dissidents was a mere speed bump on the fated way to Chinese democracy and an open society. Beltway wisdom was that any year China could experience a moment akin to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

Then status quo elite thinking in Washington was that even if the Chinese ran up huge deficits, treated their trading partners in ruthless fashion, jailed critics in a vast gulag archipelago, and mimicked the colonialism and imperialism of the former Japanese Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere of the late 1930s and 1940s, Beijing, nonetheless, would inevitably translate its new affluence and self-confidence into free elections and eventual liberal society — or at least become a benign world hegemon. After all, its high-speed rail, its solar-panel factories, and modern airports wowed American pundits — as if China offered a model of green modern authoritarianism that could supersede Neanderthal resistance to green central planners. A Chinese Carmel or Upper West Side was always proverbially right around the corner.

Just as it had been awed by Western money and technology, surely China would be even more wowed by Western magnanimity and so reciprocate by mimicking Western political and cultural institutions.

That fantasy has dissipated as Donald Trump shattered its glass veneer. The vision of China as always on the cusp of consensual government was always about as accurate as the old American dreams that the more powerful imperial Japan became in the early 20th century, the more apt Tokyo would be to assume a role as a sober and judicious Westernized protector of global norms. Again, ahistorical groupthink, fueled by globalist nonsense, simply ignored Chinese history and culture.

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Groupthink explains radical transformations in conventional wisdom and received opinion. The status of China should always have been pretty clear: The Chinese government was a Communist autocracy with a long history of mass murder, racial and religious intolerance, and hatred of democracy — whether it lived hand to mouth in Maoist times or befooled naïve journalists and buccaneer corporatists who bragged about its shiny new infrastructure.

What changed was not the essence of China, but its superficial veneer, which tricked the gullible or conniving Westerners into assuming its fascist brand of capitalism led to riches and on to eventual freedom.

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44   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 5:18pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
It will be worse with China.


Ok, but then that means that they'll have to tell Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, India, etc, how to conduct business with Singapore.

There are plenty of rich ppl in Asia-Pacific who don't carry PRC passports. Plus, even famous former PRCers (ethnic Han Chinese) have given up their PRC passports for Singaporeans ones like actress Gong Li.
45   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 5:25pm  

Rin says
Heraclitusstudent says
It will be worse with China.


Ok, but then that means that they'll have to tell Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, India, etc, how to conduct business with Singapore.

There are plenty of rich ppl in Asia-Pacific who don't carry PRC passports. Plus, even famous former PRCers (ethnic Han Chinese) have given up their PRC passports for Singaporeans ones like actress Gong Li.

Do you think if Xi went all Kim fuck and lock down HK in 48 hours. Do you think trump or Pelosi is going to start WW3, send American boys to street fights in chinese soil, or napalm the city?
The Brits?
Ps, I take it back, Trump will start WW3 if he is losing to Biden!
46   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 5:28pm  

kt1652 says

Do you think if Shih went all Kim fuck and lock down HK in 48 hours.


HK is already done, they're owned by PRC. So what's the question?

The question is whether or not, PRC will launch an invasion of SE Asia, conquering Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia so that these nations don't easily exchange money with Singapore and the western NATO nations including South Korea and Japan. If that happens then yes, we're looking at a major war.
47   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 5:37pm  

Rin says
kt1652 says

Do you think if Shih went all Kim fuck and lock down HK in 48 hours.


HK is already done, they're owned by PRC. So what's the question?

The question is whether or not, PRC will launch an invasion of SE Asia, conquering Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia so that these nations don't easily exchange money with Singapore and the western NATO nations including South Korea and Japan. If that happens then yes, we're looking at a major war.

That is a non question. Beijing completely dominate V,T,M,S & Indo akready. Why would Xi start a war? It's like we can wipe out Mexico/Can, but would make no sense whatsoever.
48   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 6:10pm  

kt1652 says
Beijing completely dominate V,T,M,S & Indo akready.


They do not monetarily dominate Asia. If so, then all funds funnel through the Renminbi which it doesn't.

Boy, you guys really don't get it. The relationship between PRC and the rest of Asia is not the US, Canada, Mexico, and the Monroe Doctrine. When will you get it. Right now, the USD is the sole currency of the nation of Panama. The fact of the matter is that the USD is widely used throughout the world, esp south of the border.

And likewise, a lot of that world (not just South America but countless other nations) either want to live or conduct business within the USA.

In contrast, no one in Asia, wants to deal with PRC ... its racial politics, its currency controls, and its government. If you haven't figured it out then none of you have actually worked or lived in Asia-Pacific. The PRC is basically the Asian version of the USSR, trying to push its way through another set of Pragues, Budapests, etc, but in this case, without using armed forces but some faint notion that in the distant future, the USA, NATO, and the rest of the world will stop doing business with Asia-Pacific and it'll only be China and no one else.
49   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 6:11pm  

Goran, can you jump in and set these ideologues straight?
50   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 7:15pm  

China is Indonesia's largest export & importdestination, over Japan, USA.
China remains Malaysia's largest trading partner, 10 years running.
Vietnam...China as leading partner, to benefit from US-Sino trade war.
Google it.
These countries may not like Beijing, but they also know the USA will not shed blood over them...not enought oil there.
51   B.A.C.A.H.   2019 Apr 25, 7:26pm  

I hosted some distant in-laws who are Filipinos of modest means, in Hong Kong. Being people of modest means, it's nearly impossible for them to get a visitor visa to the US. Since I wanted to spend some time with them, I met them in Hong Kong. Because of the timing of the flights, my guests arrived the night before my kids and me.

My niece told me about the curt, officious treatment from the immigration officer at the arrivals terminal. They had to prove they had return tickets, and show proof that they had a hotel reservation that was already paid for during their stay in Hong Kong. Good thing I emailed those stuff to my niece and told her to print them out and bring them along to the airport. They also made her party all gather together as a group to exit the arrivals hall.

When my mixed race party arrived with our US passports, no problem. We were waived through, no questions asked. And we weren't asked to "gather together" to go through immigration as a group.

It was only after I was home from the trip that the subtle racism the clerks at the hotel treated my inlaws with had dawned on me. If I realized what had happened at the time, I would have read the hotel the riot act.

Walking about the streets of HK Island looking for particular stuff, my kids and I would ask locals for directions. My niece's mom was amazed, how "nice the Chinese people are to Filipinos here"; "not like in the Philippines." I didn't have the heart to tell her, it's because your with us.
52   cmdrda2leak   2019 Apr 25, 10:41pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

When my mixed race party arrived with our US passports, no problem


...


It was only after I was home from the trip that the subtle racism the clerks at the hotel treated my inlaws with had dawned on me. If I realized what had happened at the time, I would have read the hotel the riot act.


Sorry, not to pick nits here, but... That isn't racism. You said just above that the US party was mixed race. What your Filipino party experienced was the very practical application of risk management.

Chance of US nationals tasting the freedom and prosperity of life in Hong Kong and not returning: approximately zero.

Chance of PH nationals of modest means tasting the prosperity of life in HK and not returning: definitely nonzero.

53   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 11:26pm  

So what? Common Chinese are racists, they discrimate even chinese, Noth vs south, east vs west, dark vs light skin...HKers feel superior to mainlanders, and any darker Asians. Older ones hates japanese. They are rude to everyone, except the wealthy.

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