patrick.net

Booger says

Worst case is that very few people die and we are still grossly overpopulated.

If it clears out the Sunol Grade at rush hour, it was all worth it.

Another graph from the Wikipedia which shows that the number of cases has leveled off in China.

When that graph starts falling, expect the stock market to start rising.

Patrick says

When that graph starts falling, expect the stock market to start rising.

I don't think this is paying attention to the situation at hand.

It falls in China because of major clamp down on activity, forcing people to stay at home, forcing them to report temperatures, closing schools, severely limiting transportation, etc... that's a severe economic disruption by itself.

It's obvious that this thing will go increasing exponentially in the west until we do the same as China. It's a direct straight line from here to there. So huge economic disruption is baked in. It would take a miracle for this not to happen. For example, maybe warmer temperature will make it go away? Like yes - miracle.

It will also happen in places that don't have the medical infrastructure or social authority to do something like China did. I.e. this thing will keep moving around and be a pain long term.

Don't kid yourself.

The flu has killed over 15000 people in the US alone and is just reaching its peak. If people confine themselves when they get sick with flu like symptoms this is nothing more than another serious flu. Not good but by far not as bad as the media shills make it appear. These things will recur every decade or so, most will either disappear or become mild and endemic.

mell says

It's not 10 x lethal, outside of China it's a bit more lethal than the flu.

This is the first time I heard this. I just heard Italy had about 3% mortality rate, while I usually hear 2%, sometimes up to 3%, for China.

edit - I saw a source claim 3.5% for Iran.

Do you think maybe the lower death rate outside China is due to them receiving better/any hospital care? I'd imagine China hospitals overloaded quickly, leaving most with little to no care. That can happen happen outside of China too, given a bit of time.

edit - I'm now questioning "the death rate being lower outside of China" given that Italy and Iran are the top locations, and they have the same or higher death rate.

I hope Mell is right, but we just don't know. I have had a weird feeling about the way the media has treated this, but I think it is becasue we don't know, and people are erring on the side of caution, becasue that's what will make a difference if it is really bad. I don't think it's a conspiracy against Trump. IF anything this is a chance for him to be Presidential, to the extent that's possible.

I think what we hear from Italy and Iran in the next week or so should be very telling. I guess someone else said something similar above.

In these situations I find myself wanting to be optimistic, maybe becasue it's my nature, but probably also becasue of the relative false alarms in the past few decades, such as avian flu and Ebola. That is false alarms in the sense that they were contained, I don't think this will be similarly contained, but hopefully like Mell said, people maybe it will just be like another flu. People are less likely to go to school or to work than they would with the flu, but will the carriers even know they have it ? Will they have fevers ? I think it's true with flu also, that people are sharing it, before they know they have a fever.

They say children have very mild symptoms with CV, which is good, but it might not be the best time to be working in a school, not that I am particularly worried.

Heraclitusstudent says

There will be 100 cases in CA in a week

Costco this weekend then soon I plan to start working from home for a while.

Heraclitusstudent says

It will also happen in places that don't have the medical infrastructure or social authority to do something like China did. I.e. this thing will keep moving around and be a pain long term.

Define long term pain, and let's bet.

This is a giant nothingburger. I'll bet $10k US deaths never gets to 5% of flu deaths. Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

People choking on grapes is a bigger threat than the corona virus.

Hircus says

mell says

It's not 10 x lethal, outside of China it's a bit more lethal than the flu.

This is the first time I heard this. I just heard Italy had about 3% mortality rate, while I usually hear 2%, sometimes up to 3%, for China.

Do you think maybe the lower death rate outside China is due to them receiving better/any hospital care? I'd imagine China hospitals overloaded quickly, leaving most with little to no care. That can happen happen outside of China too, given a bit of time.

Yes the hospital care in China is likely atrocious or for many non existent. The majority of of people who die are very old and/or have underlying conditions. It's def less than 1% in ROW. Italy has botched it as well and I agree with strict containment measures simply because we cannot afford another flu on top of peak flu season. But the measures in the US are pretty tight, regardless you will see some community spread simply because for most it's very mild and they go undetected. Still of people shoe common sense and self contain them as soon as they get sick it should be very containable.

CBOEtrader says

Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

I would take the other side of your bet, but I don't want to betting on more people being sick and dying. I think you need pretty big odds to bet on it being less than 1%. I wish I thought you were right.

But yeah, I've been thinking similarly, about the media concern being a little out of proportion, for reasons I stated above. But I know I don't know.

We should all have a much better idea soon enough.

marcus says

CBOEtrader says

Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

I would take the other side of your bet, but I don't want to betting on more people being sick. I think you need pretty big odds to bet on it being less than 1%. I wish I thought you were right.

But yeah, I've been thinking similarly, for reasons I stated above. But I don't know.

We should all have a much better idea soon enough.

Flu kills around 500k each year on avg. so 1% is 5k deaths, 10% 50k deaths.

I'm optimistic but 1% may be tight. 2%-3% is a good bet. The problem with the high death rates are countries with poor to no medical care like China or Iran. Even Italy's rate is high at 2%, but Italians are known to occasionally mess things up and they has a lot of elderly among the infected in Lombardy.

mell says

Flu kills around 500k

CBOE was talking about U.S. only. I don't know the average, it swings pretty wildly between about 30 to 80,000. Perhaps the average is near 45,000. Probably trending up with the boomer cohort getting up there. So 5% ? I would take the bet, except that I'm just not comfortable betting on more deaths, even if it is hedged in the sense that it would be nice to lose. Still, yeah, not going to do it, but sadly I fear over a few thousand deaths is very likely.

marcus says

CBOEtrader says

Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

I would take the other side of your bet, but I don't want to betting on more people being sick and dying. I think you need pretty big odds to bet on it being less than 1%. I wish I thought you were right.

But yeah, I've been thinking similarly, about the media concern being a little out of proportion, for reasons I stated above. But I know I don't know.

We should all have a much better idea soon enough.

mell says

I'm optimistic but 1% may be tight. 2%-3% is a good bet. The problem with the high death rates are countries with poor to no medical care like China or Iran. Even Italy's rate is high at 2%, but Italians are known to occasionally mess things up and they has a lot of elderly among the infected in Lombardy.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

34000 deaths from the flu in the US. I doubt the US will see 340 deaths from corona virus.

This will go the way of Ebola and Zika virus in a few months.

marcus says

mell says

Flu kills around 500k

CBOE was talking about U.S. only. I don't know the average, it swings pretty wildly between about 30 to 80,000. Perhaps the average is near 45,000. Probably trending up with the boomer cohort getting up there.

You think we will have 450 deaths in US from this? We shall see

I heard many viruses dont spread well when it warms up. If that holds true for covid-19, the quickly approaching warmer months could be the main thing that prevent it from hitting the usa much. Look at how concentrated the flu deaths are during the winter months, and barely anything in summer months:

I got the flu this year despite the shot. Came on quickly and had a sharp peak. I was fine within a week. Last one was the swine flu. I woke up at 4AM moaning which has never happened. Thought to myself: Damn you are REALLY sick because you sure aren't going to get any sympathy by moaning. Nobody else is here.

I've got some mutations on my CFTR gene that unfortunately make me a prime candidate to die from corona virus. I'm healthy, non-smoker. I dindonuthin.

CBOEtrader says

I doubt the US will see 340 deaths from corona virus.

By when?

I think we have a chance that it stays very low over the next 6 months, but I'm not so sure about the coming fall and winter at the end of the yr.

CBOEtrader says

marcus says

mell says

Flu kills around 500k

CBOE was talking about U.S. only. I don't know the average, it swings pretty wildly between about 30 to 80,000. Perhaps the average is near 45,000. Probably trending up with the boomer cohort getting up there.

You think we will have 450 deaths in US from this? We shall see

I agree for the US, thought you meant worldwide.

Hircus says

I heard many viruses dont spread well when it warms up. If that holds true for covid-19, the quickly approaching warmer months could be the main thing that prevent it from hitting the usa much. Look at how concentrated the flu deaths are during the winter months, and barely anything in summer months:

Yeah that's the hope and there's a decent chance it will turn out that way.

just_dregalicious says

I've got some mutations on my CFTR gene that unfortunately make me a prime candidate to die from corona virus. I'm healthy, non-smoker. I dindonuthin

You have CF?

atypical. I pretty much walk around 24/7 with low grade pneumonia though. Just waiting for an event the little bastards can take advantage of.

Ok but def work from home if it turns out there's community spread here in the BA. Wifey has asthma and parties and travels like there's no tomorrow. Pisses me off a bit since I'm concerned for her but we're all adults here. Darn Irish.

Yeah, I wasn't joking about costco and working from home. Not sure that'll matter though.

I'm 100% WFH coder and love it but then you get stuck with doing the dishes, laundry, picking up packages, opening the door, moving cars. But it's great for a regular workout routine. Would hate to see my studios close due to CV.

Fortunately I left the lab late 90s to become a bioinformatics coder. I hope your wife listens to you!

just_dregalicious says

Fortunately I left the lab late 90s to become a bioinformatics coder. I hope your wife listens to you!

I have a MS in bioinformatics but have never coded in that field. The irony. But I've been trading biotechs for a while - addicted to the research and the rollercoaster stock rides.

I'm not surprised. You really know your $hit.

Thanks - likewise. Hoping to become the biotech trading partner for my buddies hedge fund one day. But the stock market is so much more than just good research. Lots of psychology at play akin to a poker game since you always only have partial info.

Also my interest peaked when I had CFS or PVFS of unknown origin (usually the case). I'm generally very healthy and sporty but those were the 5 darkest years in my life til full recovery. Started during the swine flu year in 2009 but can't say it caused it. Doctors were of no help - high ebv antibodies were detected. Imported immune-stimulants and started self medicating, eventually successful. Started running half marathons the years after when I couldnt jog a mile during the illness. But also can't say for sure the meds did it. Medicine is fascinating.

I know the feeling. Spent so much cash trying to figure out why I had sinusitis and lung infections so often. Docs were clueless. Not their fault, that was pre-human genome. Pneumonia vaccination helped a lot. Also explains why the some number over 100 chicks I banged never got prego.

marcus says

I don't think it's a conspiracy against Trump.

I agree - what media needs is panic so that people would listen to them. Coronavirus is more panic-worthy than ebola (which was more difficult to transmit), bird flu, or swine flu, so they are going at it to lift their sagging popularity. They do throw barbs at Trump but that is simply their SOP - trump can say that he loves children and media will find that he says it because he is an orange raycist.

I think it's an informal conspiracy. That is, not centrally planned, but the three opposition groups happening to find common ground in their efforts to fuck poor US citizens out of jobs:

1. China
2. corporate fuck weasels
3. the dying legacy media

Patrick says

I think it's an informal conspiracy. That is, not centrally planned, but the three opposition groups happening to find common ground in their efforts to fuck poor US citizens out of jobs:

1. China
2. corporate fuck weasels
3. the dying legacy media

Yeah it is not a planned conspiracy but they are clearly exploiting it to hurt Trump. I mean what else can they do besides canceling flights, airport screenings, testing and quarantines?

Patrick says

I think it's an informal conspiracy. That is, not centrally planned, but the three opposition groups happening to find common ground in their efforts to fuck poor US citizens out of jobs:

1. China
2. corporate fuck weasels
3. the dying legacy media

@Patrick,
#1 does not make sense, if anything, coronavirus will bring jobs back to US thus making poor people here better off.
#2 and 3 - fucked in head media will use anything against Trump. If he found cure for all cancers, that would still be somehow bad.

rd6B says

#1 does not make sense, if anything, coronavirus will bring jobs back to US thus making poor people here better off.

True - unless they can prevent Trump's almost-certain re-election. Maybe they are desperate enough to try this. I know it seems unlikely, but you should be paranoid in proportion to the amount of money involved.

And the money involved here is in the trillions.

Patrick says

True - unless they can prevent Trump's almost-certain re-election. Maybe they are desperate enough to try this. I know it seems unlikely, but you should be paranoid in proportion to the amount of money involved.

Their competence and intellectual abilities are quite low, which is the reason why I do not believe conspiracies in this case. Only thing they can do is slander Trump on TV with foaming mouth. They got trump elected against all odds, for Christs' sake...

Air pollution in China has dropped dramatically.



from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967

https://spectator.us/donald-trump-vs-corona-hysteria/

No sooner had news of the virus emerged than the left tried to weaponize it against Donald Trump. But his response to this apparent medical emergency has been magnificent. At first, the media condemned him for taking swift action to stop flights from places, like China, where the infection was rife and growing. ‘Can you believe it? Trump restricted flights from China. What a racist!’ ...

Anyone wanting to see what patient leadership in action looks like should watch the president’s press conference Wednesday on coronavirus. He did what a leader should do. He reassured people. He presented the facts, so far as we know them. He outlined the many actions his administration was taking to mitigate danger and the various contingency plans should the disease worsen or spread more than we currently expect.

The president called on medical experts to explain various aspects of the situation. He was calm but serious, cautious but optimistic. The danger to the US at present, he pointed out several times, is very low. Currently, he said, there are 15 confirmed cases here. Fifteen. Most patients are recovering; one is in a serious condition. He also highlighted that every year, the flu claims anywhere from 25,000 to 60-odd thousand lives.

I said that Trump exhibited ‘patient leadership.’ The element of patience was paramount. Not for the first time, I was reminded that the White House press corps resembles a flock of bad-tempered schoolchildren, lazy and slightly dim, but from fancy families so firm in their sense of entitlement and outrage.

All the adults in the room were on or next to the podium. The press gaggle, desperate to find something to blame the president for, kept repeating the same questions, fighting to frame ‘gotcha’ remarks, and appearing exactly like they are: snotty, ill-prepared hacks whose goal is not to report and inform, but play smarmy partisan games. The president, just back from a trip to India, looked tired but commanding. The press looked small, sweaty, petulant.

I'm sure the think tanks have all figured out the Monte Carlo stats on the deployments of bioweapons. However, such deployments would have the character of crude, rusty cleavers rather than fine ceramic knives.

The blowtorch of captive media attention reeks of propaganda event. It seems little early in the election cycle to precipitate a recession/depression to use against Trump, but I would have anticipated such a manipulation some time this year.

How do you engineer a recession without blowing up the world economy with depression? These media driven downturns are great buying opportunities for the elites and gamblers with ready cash to buy devaluated assets. Maybe they think they can plunder, and then navigate the ship of state adroitly out of danger? Of course, there are the benefits of imposing martial law without protest, and keeping people from assemblage. Who knows what calculus is being applied.

Patrick says

the White House press corps resembles a flock of bad-tempered schoolchildren, lazy and slightly dim, but from fancy families so firm in their sense of entitlement and outrage.

BTW, this fits perfectly with the description of the "clerisy" here:

https://patrick.net/post/1330528/2020-03-01-the-two-middle-classes

They constitute “the privileged stratum,” in the words of French left-wing analyst Christophe Guilluy, operating from an assumption of “moral superiority” that justifies their right to instruct others. This power is greatly enhanced by their control of culture, most media, the education systems—eight in 10 British professors are on the Left—and throughout the bureaucracy.