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Shaman says

I predict that by this time next year most of us will have had corona virus, and gotten over it without much fanfare.

Jazz is actually right... it can’t be contained for long. It’s too fucking contagious and people walk around without symptoms for a week before they get a cough. It will spread

This is a very unlikely scenario unless it is so mild that most cases go undetected and mistake as common cold, but then the death rate is insignificant as in extremely low. Will we evolve and one year or another perhaps get the coronavirus as it may return seasonally? Likely, esp. for younger more mobile people. That will also build up immunity for those to come after us. However for this season a pandemic is currently unlikely, even per WHO. Now they may change their stance if there are new developments, bit so far even in China only a small fraction of the population contracted it (after drastic containment measures).

jazz_music says

Shaman says

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000

No, that’s incorrect.

The current prognosis is 1 in 1000-2000 members of the human race.

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke? You're talking a 100% difference within the estimate. Just admit this is pure guesswork at this point. It's been around since December at least and we're mid March practically. If it was that contagious we'd have substantially more than 80-100k people infected. Again, only infected. Mostly in China. Check out population densities. You're not acknowledging the hype and relying on Chinese data. 1M out of 1B people should be infected in China alone if this was a problem.

It's not a problem. I think some are showing their age here....

jazz_music says

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke

No, it’s ONE DEAD from every 1,000 to 2,000 humans.

So the joke stands. A range of 1 out of 1,000 to 2,000 is fucking hysterical. Just admit that no one knows that data. Admit this isn't a big fucking deal. Put it this way, let's say it's 10 out of 10,000 to 20,000. That's a fucking 10k variance. That's complete guessing and not statistical data. That's where we're at with this. It's complete bull shit.

WookieMan says

jazz_music says

Shaman says

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000

No, that’s incorrect.

The current prognosis is 1 in 1000-2000 members of the human race.

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke? You're talking a 100% difference within the estimate. Just admit this is pure guesswork at this point. It's been around since December at least and we're mid March practically. If it was that contagious we'd have substantially more than 80-100k people infected. Again, only infected. Mostly in China. Check out population densities. You're not acknowledging the hype and relying on Chinese data. 1M out of 1B people should be infected in China alone if this was a problem.

It's not a problem. I think some are showing their age here....

lol but age is no excuse - they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Oh yes and AIDS was supposed to kill a big chunk of the world population as well since some "epidemiologists" theorized HIV can be spread at the hair dresser or barber (scissors, combs etc.) or bites from flies and other insects, leading to mass panics and mass accusations. Turned out even in unprotected sex the change of transfer was 1 to a few thousand, lesser for anal and the rougher you get. But yeah HIV was another one to doom humanity.

mell says

they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Y2K!!!

CBOEtrader says

mell says

they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Y2K!!!

Ah yes that one too, the preppers were out in full force there as well! Truth be told, even I expected a few more serious problems and was stupefied by how little went wrong.

And just last week, all polls and papers were predicting a serious Super Tuesday victory for Bernie....

Mutating like a mofo. The bioinformatics here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

just_dregalicious says

Mutating like a mofo. The bioinformatics here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Interesting how that plot shows NOTHING in Iran.

Prolly no strain data

More people have had their hair sniffed by Joe Biden than have died from the Corona Virus in the US.

WookieMan says

So the joke stands. A range of 1 out of 1,000 to 2,000 is fucking hysterical. Just admit that no one knows that data. Admit this isn't a big fucking deal. Put it this way, let's say it's 10 out of 10,000 to 20,000. That's a fucking 10k variance. That's complete guessing and not statistical data. That's where we're at with this. It's complete bull shit.

Like every poll too? And the data on amount of homeless? Pretty much all "data" from the MSM.

komputodo says

Like every poll too? And the data on amount of homeless? Pretty much all "data" from the MSM.

Yup, it's almost as if simple math is Chinese to them... lol. Or, like I'd probably guess, they manipulate it with "variables" and "what if" type data to shape the story.

It's like the difference between 1 and 2 doesn't seem all that dramatic. So they use lower numbers, 1k-2k. The difference between say 1M and 2M people dying is astronomical though. It's double the fucking number of deaths by one fucking million. That's not a rounding error or within a typical margin of error.

Been on the phone today, getting lots of event cancellations. People are telling me left and right that the illness responsible for 15-30% of the common cold diagnosis in the United States is like the Fucking Andromeda Strain.

This is why we need the Irresponsible Fearmonging Regulation

Everytime the media mentions a Disease, they must mention the CDC US official death rate or an official CDC statement at the beginning and end of the segment, such as "Less than 1% and almost only among the elderly and severe immune compromised. Just wash your hands and stay home if you're sick" or be fined $10M per incident by the FCC.

NoCoupForYou says

Been on the phone today, getting lots of event cancellations. People are telling me left and right that the illness responsible for 15-30% of the common cold diagnosis in the United States is like the Fucking Andromeda Strain.

It's really fucking annoying. I know people have their opinions of cruises (I don't want to hear them), but I'm boarding one in about 17 days. That mother fucker gets cancelled or redirected because of this absolute bull shit I'm going to go nuts.

I've got travel insurance, but I need to look at the policy. Not sure overhyped viruses are covered. If I catch CV and die on the beach, hells yes. So if you don't hear from Wookie by say April 10th or so, I've likely died from CV or am being quarantined in the Caribbean in a 2 bedroom suite... the horror.

WookieMan says

I've got travel insurance, but I need to look at the policy. Not sure overhyped viruses are covered. If I catch CV and die on the beach, hells yes. So if you don't hear from Wookie by say April 10th or so, I've likely died from CV or am being quarantined in the Caribbean in a 2 bedroom suite... the horror.

This was on the news a few days ago and the reporter said in most cases travel insurance will not cover it unless the policy was for "cancel for any reason" which i guess is twice as much.

RC2006 says

This was on the news a few days ago and the reporter said in most cases travel insurance will not cover it unless the policy was for "cancel for any reason" which i guess is twice as much.

Yup, I've read/heard the same. Just haven't looked at the damn policy. Not in the mood to read that much, too lazy.

Although I've heard most lines cancelling Asian cruises are giving future credit because of this. Would be bad business to not at least do that. The fucking Italians are the one's that introduced CV to the Dominican/Haiti. Problem is just one cruise ship in the Caribbean gets infected the entire fucking system will get shut down. Too many old people on these boats for the cruise lines or islands to risk it.

WookieMan says

RC2006 says

This was on the news a few days ago and the reporter said in most cases travel insurance will not cover it unless the policy was for "cancel for any reason" which i guess is twice as much.

Yup, I've read/heard the same. Just haven't looked at the damn policy. Not in the mood to read that much, too lazy.

Although I've heard most lines cancelling Asian cruises are giving future credit because of this. Would be bad business to not at least do that. The fucking Italians are the one's that introduced CV to the Dominican/Haiti. Problem is just one cruise ship in the Caribbean gets infected the entire fucking system will get shut down. Too many old people on these boats for the cruise lines or islands to risk it.

If the cruise line cancels it you should get a refund regardless of insurance. The question is for connecting flights and separate hotels, right?

mell says

If the cruise line cancels it you should get a refund regardless of insurance. The question is for connecting flights and separate hotels, right?

Direct flight to San Juan, PR with points with Southwest. So I can cancel 24 hours in advance with no penalty. Hotel in PR paid with Hilton points, and now that I'm typing this I need to check the cancellation policy for that, lol. It would suck, but that's just points and not actual after tax out of pocket cash, but I'm pretty sure I can cancel that. Going to check though. Thanks.

All this said I have no intention of cancelling and this god damn overhyped virus can't stop me. Or so I hope.

The Chinese numbers are obvious BS.
This thing is spreading everywhere... but supposedly receding in China....

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-survived-coronavirus-2020-the-products-people-are-buying-and-selling-in-response-to-the-deadly-new-virus-2020-01-24

Coronavirus is driving sales of face masks, a game called Plague, and an ‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt

zzyzzx says

‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt

Isn't that one a bit premature?

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt

How about: "I survived Coronavirus 2020, but succumbed to the press hysteria"

‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt
Isn't that one a bit premature?
Not really, the survivors can just pull a T-shirt of a nearby corpse.

The massive 350M US has a fraction of the cases of far less populous Burgomeister Eurocratic Countries with their National Healthcare Programs.

Clap clap clap... Good one Jazz.

My god, Jazz. Stop embarrassing yourself and your kind.

www.youtube.com/embed/ycrqXJYf1SU

You know, coronavirus is going to do much more to cut down on illegal immigration than Trump has been able to so far.

Restaurants are already feeling the hit from less traffic. They are just not going to need as many illegals to man the kitchens and clean up. So this puts backpressure on the firehose of illegals streaming in. If they can't find work here, they will tell others.

Flights, cruises, restaurants, cinema, sports arenas, nightclubs, shopping malls, casinos.

These are all frivolous expenses, folks spending too much on them is one reason folks don't have much of a rainy day fund.

(Unless you're an employee or stockholder of those) life will go on just fine when people cut back on or eliminate such frivolity.

personal

@HEYYOU try logging out and then logging in to https://patrick.net (without the www!)

Does that fix it?

We do have community spread now in the bay area and I expect a few if not many school closures. Still the reaction seems a bit crazy, while Europe, esp. Italy, and South Korea are still grappling with many new cases, it seems overall to have started to level off slightly. The rise in Europe and US was not unexpected as a delayed reaction from infections brought by travel and then spreading in the community, plus increased testing missing less cases. I assume it has been spreading for a while and expect the infections to peak within the next few weeks then to level off.