patrick.net

A model of the predicted timeline of the disease from http://perkinslab.weebly.com/uploads/2/5/6/2/25629832/perkins_etal_sarscov2.pdf

WookieMan says

am not a prepper or gun owner.

There is no excuse for the latter. What's wrong with you?

CovfefeButDeadly says

I like you Wookie, but you are completely wrong on this and more than a tad hysterical.

I appreciate the honesty. I want to be wrong so you know. Air travel is going to be shut down soon from my sources. Likely longer than 9/11. Again, I hope my source is shit and I'm wrong.

Shitloads of businesses are going to go under if this response isn't recalibrated. And it likely won't be.

WookieMan says

Shitloads of businesses are going to go under if this response isn't recalibrated. And it likely won't be.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/ca4c0226-6713-11ea-9596-8a889527719f

“They are throwing money in the wrong place,” Bair said of an unprecedented move by the Fed on Sunday to slash benchmark rates to zero and start a $700 billion Treasury- and mortgage-bond buying program.

“This isn’t a financial crisis — at least not yet,” she told MarketWatch on Sunday evening following the Fed’s announcement, which drops the target U.S. benchmark rate to zero and aims to shore up liquidity for banks and investors in the $15.6 trillion Treasury and $8.5 trillion agency mortgage bonds markets.

“Lowering interest rates to zero doesn’t help if businesses can’t pay their loans back and they don’t have cash flow,” she said. “We need to get help out there, especially to small businesses and people already losing their jobs.”

TEOTWAWKI says

WookieMan says

am not a prepper or gun owner.

There is no excuse for the latter. What's wrong with you?

I'm an idiot. Had a FOID card for years so I've always been able to get one. Kids kind of deterred me, but I'm likely going tomorrow to resolve this situation. Got recommendations from my army buddy. Also have a good neighbor friend that I could grab ammo and multiple guns from, so it's not like I'm sitting out here naked.

I'm also in an area where that type of mass hysteria is minimal. I worry about cities and urban areas. As things get locked down, crime in the ghetto is gonna get hot. Might get to the point cops just back out of areas.

Patrick says

WookieMan says

Shitloads of businesses are going to go under if this response isn't recalibrated. And it likely won't be.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/ca4c0226-6713-11ea-9596-8a889527719f

“They are throwing money in the wrong place,” Bair said of an unprecedented move by the Fed on Sunday to slash benchmark rates to zero and start a $700 billion Treasury- and mortgage-bond buying program.

“This isn’t a financial crisis — at least not yet,” she told MarketWatch on Sunday evening following the Fed’s announcement, which drops the target U.S. benchmark rate to zero and aims to shore up liquidity for banks and investors in the $15.6 trillion Treasury and $8.5 trillion agency mortgage bonds markets.

“Lowering interest rates to zero doesn’t help if businesses can’...

It's a cashflow crisis that turns into a financial crisis. Just not right away.

I think I've said it here, my cruise cancelled. I can get a future cruise credit worth 125% of the purchase price or a 100% cash refund. Guess what, can't request the refund until March 23. I don't think they have the cash on hand to manage this along with all the people cancelling 60-120 days out where they already have their cash. It's a ponzi scheme in essence and now that the future cruisers are bailing, they don't have the cash to reimburse. I hope I'm wrong.

Remember, this is spring break time people. Summer is a long period, but besides X-mas, spring break is probably #2 or 3 for jacking up prices and making huge $$$$. Airlines and travel industry is getting fucking smashed. Then domino it down to the local economies of rental cars, Ubers, restaurants, hotels, etc. and shit ain't good.

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this, they eventually figured it out, and that’s why there is such an extreme reaction by the governments of the world to try to contain it, and they are trying to prevent panic by covering up the actual death toll in China.

PaisleyPattern says

Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this, they eventually figured it out, and that’s why there is such an extreme reaction by the governments of the world to try to contain it, and they are trying to prevent panic by covering up the actual death toll in China.

I don't even think the Chinese know what's going on in China unfortunately. There's a reason these fucking virus' seem to keep coming from there.

I'm a dick, but wanted to mention it. Paragraph breaks help. Hard to read. Consider it constructive criticism and if you want to be a dick to me, whatever, I can handle it.

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this, they eventually figured it out, and that’s why there is such an extreme reaction by the g...

This is tinfoil hat conspiracy. China is not a closed off country and working with the WHO. The reason China got better so rapidly is that they don't fuck around, their containment policy is much harsher than the West cause they don't have to worry about "human rights" or being called racist. They're not covering up anything we know workers there who are all slowly but surely returning to work. Whether one thinks it's necessary or not, the fact is containment works.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/16/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-saved-77000-lives-in-china-just-from-pollution-reduction/amp/

Wookie, No offense taken, I’ll take it as constructive criticism, I’m really just trying to make a point and get some feedback because it’s something that I have researched quite extensively and it seems to make a lot of sense to me.

My theory that the number of dead in China is much higher than publicly being reported is supported by
1/ the extent of China’s reaction,
2/the number of dead already, outside of China,
3/ the extreme reactions by governments, especially the United States, now, to try to control it.

Also, I have been following this thread all along, and your attitude has changed dramatically in the last day to one of extreme panic, whereas earlier you were definitely in the camp that this whole thing is overblown.

Do you still think that the fatalities are going to be minor, but that that the economic consequences of the over reaction will be the real problem?

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, it’s possible that the United States and other governments are well aware of this...

Well, I hope you’re right , I’m not immune to tinfoil type thoughts. I still don’t really understand why China would’ve reacted so extremely and threatened their whole economic stability over a disease that eventually only killed 3000 people. It’s possible that they realized it could’ve had a much greater impact I suppose and they stopped it in time.

PaisleyPattern says

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But the numbers in China don’t make sense based on what’s happened since it left China. Also, ...

For them with so much pollution and so many smokers the fallout would have been unbearable, losing factory workers en masse. So a hard curfew / lockdown for a few weeks was a good decision on their part. It will work in Italy and Spain as well now that people can't go out at all and can only be in numbers of two at the grocery store at the same time and are only allowed to leave house for emergencies and groceries. This is a serious illness mainly due to its high R0 so of you want to save your elderly and prevent spread these measures are necessary. Wookie is right though if you would toss morals aside it would prob be better for the youth to keep running the country and quarantine the old instead. We're sort of doing the opposite. Either way the measures enacted by many states will slow the spread.

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

mell says

PaisleyPattern says

Slightly off the current topic. But, china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion with a delayed containment effort. They claim only somewhere around 70,000 cases, 3000 deaths in their country. Italy is already up to around 1000 in a few weeks, Iran is close, the death rates in other countries seem to be advancing pretty fast. Doesn’t it seem hard to believe China only had 3000 deaths in their country. The level of reaction in their country, the extent of the clamp down, all suggest that it was a much more serious situation than 3000 deaths. Seems to me this is much more deadly than China has admitted and the uninformed populations of the world are starting to find out right now. I don’t want this to be true at all. But...

As I understand it, the current approach by the CDC in the US is to slow the spread of the virus so that the number of cases won’t overwhelm our healthcare capacity. The CDC is assuming that there is no way no way prevent the eventual exposure of the entire population to the virus, with the eventual infection of 40 to 70% of the population.

Their goal is just to slow it down so that there will be smaller numbers of sick people in the healthcare system at any given time, and also this will give the pharmaceutical companies time to develop treatments , and possibly a vaccine, and to build up medical supplies and devices which will be necessary to handle the number of sick and dying people. Even if only 50% of the country eventually gets infected, that would mean more than two million deaths.That sounds pretty substantial to me. No one in the CDC is claiming that we will be able to prevent widespread infection.

PaisleyPattern says

Do you still think that the fatalities are going to be minor, but that that the economic consequences of the over reaction will be the real problem?

I haven't really cared about the fatalities in all honesty. In the grand scheme of world population, it's not going to be a big deal at all.

The economic consequences will most certainly kill more people. I still think we're overreacting 100%. But, at this point if we're going to overreact let's go full retard I guess is my point of view in the timeline of events, hence my change of tone in the last 24 hours.

I also don't have much choice as the reaction is government mandated. Starting tomorrow I cannot go have lunch at a bar here in IL. Have a flight scheduled for Saturday, but realistically know that it's going to be cancelled and have decent info that domestic air is going to be grounded.

The second we knew this was out there, we should have isolated the older folks. They'll lie, but the WHO and CDC have know about this since October or November. They were hoping it wasn't a big deal and it backfired. Same with China.

PaisleyPattern says

3/ the extreme reactions by governments, especially the United States, now, to try to control it.

In an overly litigious society, one should not be surprised at an over reaction.

PaisleyPattern says

china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

Population 1,427,647,786 (2018 data)

Booger says

PaisleyPattern says

china had massive outbreak in a country of 1 billion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

Population 1,427,647,786 (2018 data)

Yes, thanks for that correction. I should’ve double checked that number. My point though still stands. A very widespread breakout of coronavirus in China and we are supposed to believe they were only 3000 deaths. Italy is now close to 2000 in only a few weeks.

PaisleyPattern says

Italy is now close to 2000 in only a few weeks.

Italy is different from the US or China.
Italy has open borders.
Italy has an unusually large elderly population.
Italy seems to have flu issues in other years as well:
https://www.thelocal.it/20180119/italy-worst-flu-season-in-14-years
2018 was an unusually bad year everywhere, even in the US, but nobody made a big deal about it:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/02/flu-season-arrives-after-highest-death-rate-in-four-decades-80000-estimated/

WookieMan says

PaisleyPattern says

Do you still think that the fatalities are going to be minor, but that that the economic consequences of the over reaction will be the real problem?

I haven't really cared about the fatalities in all honesty. In the grand scheme of world population, it's not going to be a big deal at all.

The economic consequences will most certainly kill more people. I still think we're overreacting 100%. But, at this point if we're going to overreact let's go full retard I guess is my point of view in the timeline of events, hence my change of tone in the last 24 hours.

I also don't have much choice as the reaction is government mandated. Starting tomorrow I cannot go have lunch at a bar here in IL. Have a flight scheduled for Saturday, but realistically know that it's going to be cancelled and have decent info that domestic air is going to be grounded.



Paisley responds:

My concern is that China’s reaction, which was extreme, is an indication of the true nature of the risks and fatalities of this virus. Similarly, our countries reaction, which really is unprecedented and immense is also indicative of our governments knowledge of the actual infectiousness and likely fatalities and impact on our healthcare system and our society in general. I think the government isn’t telling us the truth.

If you assume this is much worse than our government is telling us, then China’s reaction, and our country’s reaction makes sense, and it isn’t an overreaction, it’s an appropriate reaction to a scenario that they are keeping from the public to prevent widespread panic.

I’ve already been accused of tinfoil thinking, and that is fair enough, I am suggesting
the US government is perpetrating a massive cover-up on our population, it wouldn’t be the first time, and I’m sure it would be justified by the goal of preventing panic.

zzyzzx says

PaisleyPattern says

Italy is now close to 2000 in only a few weeks.

Italy is different from the US or China.
Italy has open borders.
Italy has an unusually large elderly population.
Italy seems to have flu issues in other years as well:
https://www.thelocal.it/20180119/italy-worst-flu-season-in-14-years
2018 was an unusually bad year everywhere, even in the US, but nobody made a big deal about it:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/02/flu-season-arrives-after-highest-death-rate-in-four-decades-80000-estimated/

The first article states that typically flu deaths in a bad Italian season around 250 a month.Italy has had 2000 deaths in under a month, from coronavirus.

What I've been saying.... https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/social-distancing-could-have-devastating-effect-people-depression-n1157871

Gonna kill more through our reaction. But hey.... old people.

Booger says

PaisleyPattern says

3/ the extreme reactions by governments, especially the United States, now, to try to control it.

In an overly litigious society, one should not be surprised at an over reaction.

This x 1000 - everyone and their mother will sue if granny or grampa dies.

WookieMan says

What I've been saying.... https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/social-distancing-could-have-devastating-effect-people-depression-n1157871

Gonna kill more through our reaction. But hey.... old people.

I agree with that - many are already isolated and this makes it much worse. My hope is that the containment will work quickly and paired with the warmer weather we can lift it sometime in April. The growth rate in the US is by far not what Italy had, despite alarmist articles. Of course we don't know how many are undiagnosed but as testing ramps up the picture is getting clearer.

mell says

My hope is that the containment will work quickly and paired with the warmer weather we can lift it sometime in April. The growth rate in the US is by far not what Italy had, despite alarmist articles.

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know. If things go back to "normal" in June and the numbers ramp up, it's going to be hard to tell. And then does everyone hunker down again? If the economy takes a quarter off, I really don't see what the government can do. It will be a disaster.

I'm not worried about the growth rate here in the states for CV-19 besides the coastal cities (LA, SF, NYC, MIAMI, etc) and Chicago and Houston. I know there are other large cities, but the US is no where near as densely populated as Italy. Throw in open borders, age and a higher smoking rate and Italy is a bad place for this virus to be.

WookieMan says

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know.

Common colds are caused by (other) coronavirus and these do slow down with warmer weather.

WookieMan says

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know.

According to this study, heat and humidity reduce Coronavirus transmission.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

Presuming 6B plus people in the world, 30 million or so have died from all causes since November. Taking the top estimates for Coronavirus deaths, that means if attribution is accurate and Coronavirus is the sole cause of death (which it usually isn't, because most patients who die are compromised by other things), that means that about .02 percent of deaths since November in the world MIGHT be attributed to Coronavirus. Twice as many people at least have died in auto accidents in the USA alone since then as have died of Coronavirus in the world. And of course, with our "Cry Wolf" Press Deceivers and Government agencies, who knows if the reports are even real.

So, for this, the press and whoever have decided that generating mass panic and destroying the economy are advisable? Martial Law Pandemic Dress Rehearsal. As soon as the press stops, the 'pandemic' stops. Mission accomplished.

"Everybody lives forever, nobody dies or SHOULD die, the only thing killing people in the world right now is Covid-19, so panic and live forever by avoiding Coronavirus!"

WookieMan says

mell says

My hope is that the containment will work quickly and paired with the warmer weather we can lift it sometime in April. The growth rate in the US is by far not what Italy had, despite alarmist articles.

Has there been evidence though that it will slow with warmer weather? Not saying it won't, I just don't know. If things go back to "normal" in June and the numbers ramp up, it's going to be hard to tell. And then does everyone hunker down again? If the economy takes a quarter off, I really don't see what the government can do. It will be a disaster.

I'm not worried about the growth rate here in the states for CV-19 besides the coastal cities (LA, SF, NYC, MIAMI, etc) and Chicago and Houston. I know there are other large cities, but the US is no where near as densely populated as Italy. Throw in open borders, age and a higher smoking rate and Italy is a bad place for this virus to be.

If you look at CV infections across the globe, colder countries dominate massively. Similar to cold and flu viruses, CVs like cold and dry weather. Sunlight, heat, and humidity destroys the virus fairly quickly. Of course the high transmission rate obfuscates that a bit but spring should slow it down significantly.

A friend sent these in an email. Not sure where he got them. All seem like reasonable estimates:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.

Patrick says

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable.

Doubtful. Not with the quarantines. We are about to have a shelter in place. The rest seems somewhat reasonable. If everybody would roam free then 50% would catch it.

Not sure about the 50%, but it's possible if the virus is really super-infectious. People have to go out and get food and bring it home, etc.

Also unclear: several sites say that the virus is spread mostly by asymptomatic people. How though? If they are not coughing, it is just about what they touch? Or does mere breathing spread it?

Patrick says

How though?

Probably the same way any cold normally spreads.

Aren't colds spread mostly by infected people coughing and sneezing?

Patrick says

Not sure about the 50%, but it's possible if the virus is really super-infectious. People have to go out and get food and bring it home, etc.

Also unclear: several sites say that the virus is spread mostly by asymptomatic people. How though? If they are not coughing, it is just about what they touch? Or does mere breathing spread it?

Same way as symptomatic people. You still sneeze or cough or touch surfaces even if you aren't sick yet, there are allergies etc. I doubt you will catch it if you follow proper hygiene, stay 6 ft away from people and don't touch your face. At some point it's unlikely that the few people that are left out there with you in the grocery store carry CV. I highly doubt that it's mainly spread by asymptomatic people. What they mean is that those are hard to detect and so a lot of them can spread it. But the viral load of a symptomatic person is much higher and you're much more likely to catch it from them. The R0 for measles is much higher but you have a certain amount of herd immunity which usually stops local outbreaks.