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Coronavirus toll could be up to 0.0003 of the US population!
invite response
2020 Mar 29, 9:38pm 20,096 views 376 comments
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113
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 8:09am
NoCoupForYou says
Obviously, covid-19 isn't caused by capitalism, but capitalism ain't looking that good in the wake of covid. The profiteering off of respirators and toilet paper doesn't exactly make that economic system look good -- and yes, communism is worse, but whataboutism isn't a defense. The federal government should have enacted emergency powers to get respirators produced and distributed to where they are needed most -- as opposed to whoever could pay the most -- as soon as this crisis started. Rationing tp like things were rationed in WWII would have prevented the run on it and people spreading the infection as they stood in line for stores to open to rush to get tp. Tourist attractions should have been closed immediately instead of keeping them open for profit like the mayor in Jaws.
Also, the Trump administration should not have closed the White House pandemic office. That was just plain stupid. How much does that office really cost? It's a pittance compared to maintaining a single air craftcarrier. The federal government's response to this pandemic has been extremely incompetent.
One can only hope that America will pull its head out of its ass, learn from this pandemic, and prepare for the next one -- and there will be a next one, and it will be much worse. We've known for decades that eventually a major plague would hit the world. Yet, we ignored this threat. Unfortunately, I doubt we'll learn form this. Americans have short memories, and humans suck at dealing with threats whose impacts that aren't immediate including pandemics, uncontrolled climate change, drug-resistant microbes, asteroid impacts, and the threat of nuclear war. These existential should be taken seriously before one of them becomes too late. We're a single-planet species, and that makes us vulnerable.
What's
Obviously, covid-19 isn't caused by capitalism, but capitalism ain't looking that good in the wake of covid. The profiteering off of respirators and toilet paper doesn't exactly make that economic system look good -- and yes, communism is worse, but whataboutism isn't a defense. The federal government should have enacted emergency powers to get respirators produced and distributed to where they are needed most -- as opposed to whoever could pay the most -- as soon as this crisis started. Rationing tp like things were rationed in WWII would have prevented the run on it and people spreading the infection as they stood in line for stores to open to rush to get tp. Tourist attractions should have been closed immediately instead of keeping them open for profit like the mayor in Jaws.
Also, the Trump administration should not have closed the White House pandemic office. That was just plain stupid. How much does that office really cost? It's a pittance compared to maintaining a single air craftcarrier. The federal government's response to this pandemic has been extremely incompetent.
One can only hope that America will pull its head out of its ass, learn from this pandemic, and prepare for the next one -- and there will be a next one, and it will be much worse. We've known for decades that eventually a major plague would hit the world. Yet, we ignored this threat. Unfortunately, I doubt we'll learn form this. Americans have short memories, and humans suck at dealing with threats whose impacts that aren't immediate including pandemics, uncontrolled climate change, drug-resistant microbes, asteroid impacts, and the threat of nuclear war. These existential should be taken seriously before one of them becomes too late. We're a single-planet species, and that makes us vulnerable.
114
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 8:18am
Patrick says
The covid death toll has been very small so far, but viruses expand exponentially. Humans are very bad at understanding exponential growth. We don't know how far we're along the growth curve we are. The death toll could easily rise to over a million, or it could stop in the tens of thousands. We don't know, and the only tool we have to fight it right now is social distancing.
Yes, the economy would be better off if the virus were to run its course quickly, but that comes at the cost of many more lives lost.
PANIC!
Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
The covid death toll has been very small so far, but viruses expand exponentially. Humans are very bad at understanding exponential growth. We don't know how far we're along the growth curve we are. The death toll could easily rise to over a million, or it could stop in the tens of thousands. We don't know, and the only tool we have to fight it right now is social distancing.
Yes, the economy would be better off if the virus were to run its course quickly, but that comes at the cost of many more lives lost.
115
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 11:35am
annoyed1 says
Speak of yourself. It's actually not an exponential curve but the left side of a Gaussian curve, due to two exponential curves racing (subtracting) each other: the exposed-and-recovered-therefore-immune vs. the virus. The more you suppressed the exposed-and-recovered-therefore-immune, the longer it will take the Gaussian curve to flatten and then decline on the right side of the curve.
We got a clue from the Diamond Princess: if nobody had immunity, 100% of the people onboard should have been tested positive after mingling on the ship festively for weeks. Instead, only 20-30% were tested positive. That meant a large cross-section of the population had already been exposed to the disease in the previous months, and were immune.
What's really bad about fighting it with the lock-down is that the hospitals are not locked down! In effect the locking down of the rest of the society while not locking down the hospitals is artificially selecting the most deadly strains of the virus and giving them an advantage to spread more freely over more benign strains of the virus. The effect of that was actually shown in the original chart comparing Philadelphia vs. St. Louis during 1918-1919 Asprin-Flu (that was cited by the "public-heath/slaughter" government officials to justify lock-down): while more people dying in Philadelphia per head-count was likely due to higher population density and more pharmacies handing out Asprin (which killed patients at 30 times higher rate than patients who did not get Asprin), Philadelphia didn't have a second hump whereas St. Louis did get a second hump that killed more people than the first hump due to the lock-down policy.
The lock-down policy is designed to kill more people!
The second part of the sentence is simply wrong. More lives are lost as a result of a lock-down policy. The hospitals as they are set up are simply not designed to deal with large numbers of contagious disease patients. High death count in any locality is correlated to people flocking to hospitals! That happened in Wuhan (death per million was likely hundreds times that of the rest of that country and the rest of the world so far, because people packed the hospitals in the first 3 days, before emptying out; whereas most of the rest of China and most of the rest of the world learned that lesson), and in Bergamo. I had been wondering why Bergamo; now we know from the CBS footage. The small towns people apparently didn't see the stupidity of people in Wuhan in those 3 days in January packing hospitals.
Today's normal metro hospitals for treating masses of contagious disease patients is about at the same level as Asprin for treating severe flu/cold 100 years ago (during the 1918-1919 Asprin-Flu) and blood-letting therapy 200 years ago (that killed Mozard, George Washington, etc.). The medical establishment is looking at a possible fat tail event, and mistakenly think they can solve the problem by linearly projecting their usual practices that had been proven effective against smaller problems the other 99% of the time. It's the same reason why "experts" like those Nobel-Prize winning economists and quants guys blew up LTCM.
The covid death toll has been very small so far, but viruses expand exponentially. Humans are very bad at understanding exponential growth.
Speak of yourself. It's actually not an exponential curve but the left side of a Gaussian curve, due to two exponential curves racing (subtracting) each other: the exposed-and-recovered-therefore-immune vs. the virus. The more you suppressed the exposed-and-recovered-therefore-immune, the longer it will take the Gaussian curve to flatten and then decline on the right side of the curve.
We don't know how far we're along the growth curve we are. The death toll could easily rise to over a million, or it could stop in the tens of thousands. We don't know, and the only tool we have to fight it right now is social distancing.
We got a clue from the Diamond Princess: if nobody had immunity, 100% of the people onboard should have been tested positive after mingling on the ship festively for weeks. Instead, only 20-30% were tested positive. That meant a large cross-section of the population had already been exposed to the disease in the previous months, and were immune.
What's really bad about fighting it with the lock-down is that the hospitals are not locked down! In effect the locking down of the rest of the society while not locking down the hospitals is artificially selecting the most deadly strains of the virus and giving them an advantage to spread more freely over more benign strains of the virus. The effect of that was actually shown in the original chart comparing Philadelphia vs. St. Louis during 1918-1919 Asprin-Flu (that was cited by the "public-heath/slaughter" government officials to justify lock-down): while more people dying in Philadelphia per head-count was likely due to higher population density and more pharmacies handing out Asprin (which killed patients at 30 times higher rate than patients who did not get Asprin), Philadelphia didn't have a second hump whereas St. Louis did get a second hump that killed more people than the first hump due to the lock-down policy.
The lock-down policy is designed to kill more people!
Yes, the economy would be better off if the virus were to run its course quickly, but that comes at the cost of many more lives lost.
The second part of the sentence is simply wrong. More lives are lost as a result of a lock-down policy. The hospitals as they are set up are simply not designed to deal with large numbers of contagious disease patients. High death count in any locality is correlated to people flocking to hospitals! That happened in Wuhan (death per million was likely hundreds times that of the rest of that country and the rest of the world so far, because people packed the hospitals in the first 3 days, before emptying out; whereas most of the rest of China and most of the rest of the world learned that lesson), and in Bergamo. I had been wondering why Bergamo; now we know from the CBS footage. The small towns people apparently didn't see the stupidity of people in Wuhan in those 3 days in January packing hospitals.
Today's normal metro hospitals for treating masses of contagious disease patients is about at the same level as Asprin for treating severe flu/cold 100 years ago (during the 1918-1919 Asprin-Flu) and blood-letting therapy 200 years ago (that killed Mozard, George Washington, etc.). The medical establishment is looking at a possible fat tail event, and mistakenly think they can solve the problem by linearly projecting their usual practices that had been proven effective against smaller problems the other 99% of the time. It's the same reason why "experts" like those Nobel-Prize winning economists and quants guys blew up LTCM.
116
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Apr 2, 11:48am
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Apr 2, 11:48am
thomasdong1776 says
Irrelevant. Trump won a state by state popular vote. That there was an excess of Californians voting for Hillary isn't important.
irrelevant. One person received more votes than the other. How those votes were distributed across the states means nothing if you're claiming "the people" rejected the one who received the most votes.
Irrelevant. Trump won a state by state popular vote. That there was an excess of Californians voting for Hillary isn't important.
117
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 11:50am
ThreeBays says
Are the hospitals magically exempt from the same laws of physics and math? Why are the hospitals not locked down? In fact, hospital air would have even higher viral load than at a church: due to the concentration of people who are sick!
There's a pretty good chance that the severity of Covid-19 & dying is related to viral load and how you get the virus. If you get it in aerosol form at a church or choir it can go directly deep in your lungs. If you get it via touching your mouth or nose, it's a much longer process to invade the lungs.
Are the hospitals magically exempt from the same laws of physics and math? Why are the hospitals not locked down? In fact, hospital air would have even higher viral load than at a church: due to the concentration of people who are sick!
118
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Apr 2, 11:52am
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Apr 2, 11:52am
Why aren't nursing homes and assisted living and senior communities under quarantine with a cop outside the doors/gates?
And only pharma, grocery deliveries, and/or cafeteria supply deliveries allowed?
And only pharma, grocery deliveries, and/or cafeteria supply deliveries allowed?
119
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Apr 2, 11:55am
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Apr 2, 11:55am
annoyed1 says
And non-genetically diverse viruses newly introduced into the human population burn out quickly, especially if allowed to infect healthy people more than capable of eliminating them. Then there is huge resistance in future outbreaks, which slows the sspread and weakens the virulence.
The covid death toll has been very small so far, but viruses expand exponentially.
And non-genetically diverse viruses newly introduced into the human population burn out quickly, especially if allowed to infect healthy people more than capable of eliminating them. Then there is huge resistance in future outbreaks, which slows the sspread and weakens the virulence.
121
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 1:09pm
ThreeBays says
Where did you learn your math? An exponential curve with a lower exponent would still be an exponential curve!
What causes the left side of the Gaussian curve to flatten is the gradual exhaustion of not-yet-exposed population! At the beginning almost the entire population are virgins and susceptible to being infected; as more and more people have been exposed and have fought it off therefore becoming immune, the virus is hitting been-there-and-done-that crowd and therefore getting stopped. The more you lock-down, the longer it takes to reach that stage.
Patrick saysThe graphs for Italy are no longer exponential at all.
Yep, suppression orders have flattened the growth. It's not clear if it's hit an apex or not yet though.
Where did you learn your math? An exponential curve with a lower exponent would still be an exponential curve!
What causes the left side of the Gaussian curve to flatten is the gradual exhaustion of not-yet-exposed population! At the beginning almost the entire population are virgins and susceptible to being infected; as more and more people have been exposed and have fought it off therefore becoming immune, the virus is hitting been-there-and-done-that crowd and therefore getting stopped. The more you lock-down, the longer it takes to reach that stage.
122
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 1:15pm
Hausmeister T says
LOL! Another shill! Do you not realize you are plotting "total death count" not "Daily Death Count"?
Patrick saysThe graphs for Italy are no longer exponential at all.
Right, suddenly a sharp drop down
LOL! Another shill! Do you not realize you are plotting "total death count" not "Daily Death Count"?
123
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 1:22pm
Reality says
If you want to get technical, it's a sigma curve of which the left side is exponential. A Gaussian curve is a normal distribution curve, which is not an exponential curve on the left side.
That is completely wrong. All mathematical models, all simulations, and all expert analysis agree that the least in-person social interaction there is, the more the infection curve will flatten and the fewer people will die as the health care system will not have to perform as much triage.
Speak of yourself. It's actually not an exponential curve but the left side of a Gaussian curve,
If you want to get technical, it's a sigma curve of which the left side is exponential. A Gaussian curve is a normal distribution curve, which is not an exponential curve on the left side.
The second part of the sentence is simply wrong. More lives are lost as a result of a lock-down policy.
That is completely wrong. All mathematical models, all simulations, and all expert analysis agree that the least in-person social interaction there is, the more the infection curve will flatten and the fewer people will die as the health care system will not have to perform as much triage.
124
CBOEtrader
2020 Apr 2, 1:28pm
CBOEtrader
2020 Apr 2, 1:28pm
ThreeBays says
Guessing at the deathrate and everything else in the model should never be considered insight.
The stanford professor who called out this model says the flu modeling uses random testing within a population to find % with antibodies. These models also assume 80 people have the flu currently for everyone tested at the hospital. Therefore, the correct method of determining deathrate is to take total deaths, and divide by a combination of empirically determined % of population w antibodies plus (80 times all known survivors of flu in the hospital).
Ferguson would absolutely know this. BUT he and the WHO decided to use total number of deatys divides by total tested at the hospital.
The Stanford professor points out that no scientist feels that number could be accurate YET many within the science community feel a large headline number better communicates the gravity of our situation therefore dont think it's appropriate to put caveats all over those obviously flawed headline numbers.
If you care about facts, I'd ignore ferguson completely.
think that models that actually use epidemiological insights like the one from Neil Ferguson, Imperial College are better.
Guessing at the deathrate and everything else in the model should never be considered insight.
The stanford professor who called out this model says the flu modeling uses random testing within a population to find % with antibodies. These models also assume 80 people have the flu currently for everyone tested at the hospital. Therefore, the correct method of determining deathrate is to take total deaths, and divide by a combination of empirically determined % of population w antibodies plus (80 times all known survivors of flu in the hospital).
Ferguson would absolutely know this. BUT he and the WHO decided to use total number of deatys divides by total tested at the hospital.
The Stanford professor points out that no scientist feels that number could be accurate YET many within the science community feel a large headline number better communicates the gravity of our situation therefore dont think it's appropriate to put caveats all over those obviously flawed headline numbers.
If you care about facts, I'd ignore ferguson completely.
125
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 1:28pm
NoCoupForYou says
Virus that cause epidemics "burn out" by infecting and killing most of a population before they can continue to spread. Before modern traveling that meant just a village. Today it means the world. Your solution sucks. Let's try a solution that involves a few million fewer dead Americans.
And non-genetically diverse viruses newly introduced into the human population burn out quickly, especially if allowed to infect healthy people more than capable of eliminating them.
Virus that cause epidemics "burn out" by infecting and killing most of a population before they can continue to spread. Before modern traveling that meant just a village. Today it means the world. Your solution sucks. Let's try a solution that involves a few million fewer dead Americans.
126
CBOEtrader
2020 Apr 2, 1:33pm
CBOEtrader
2020 Apr 2, 1:33pm
annoyed1 says
You are ignoring lowered standards of living which have proven to shorten lives and even kill people, especially the poor, not to mention suicides.
Put some statisticians on calculating years of life lost via worldwide economic shutdown. I can guarantee you it is more than corona virus years saved via lockdown.
I heard a stat from the ferguson team today that 80% of the corona virus deaths in Italy were people who would have died within 3 months anyways.
That is completely wrong.
You are ignoring lowered standards of living which have proven to shorten lives and even kill people, especially the poor, not to mention suicides.
Put some statisticians on calculating years of life lost via worldwide economic shutdown. I can guarantee you it is more than corona virus years saved via lockdown.
I heard a stat from the ferguson team today that 80% of the corona virus deaths in Italy were people who would have died within 3 months anyways.
127
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 1:38pm
NoCoupForYou says
I haven't been on this site long, but I get the distinct impression that if the democrats were in power, the people here would be calling the pandemic the worst thing in all of history.
Politics should not even enter your mind when thinking about covid. The virus doesn't give a shit about politics or who is president, and it will infect those on the left and the right without prejudice.
Irrelevant. Trump won a state by state popular vote.
I haven't been on this site long, but I get the distinct impression that if the democrats were in power, the people here would be calling the pandemic the worst thing in all of history.
Politics should not even enter your mind when thinking about covid. The virus doesn't give a shit about politics or who is president, and it will infect those on the left and the right without prejudice.
128
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 2:48pm
annoyed1 says
LOL! "Sigma Distribution Curve" is the Gaussian Curve. It is indeed not an exponential curve on the left side, but the start of it (the left tail) approximates exponential. That's why the mathematically inept mistake it for the exponential curve.
The so-called talking-heads "experts" are making a mistake similar to what the "experts" 100 years ago did with their Asprin prescriptions (which killed the majority of the 50 million people died in the 1918-1919 Asprin-Flu), and "experts" 200 years ago did with their blood-letting therapy.
Scientific facts are based on math and physics (Chemistry and Biology are fundamentally physics too at the lower implementation level), not based on the opinions of talking heads, who are obviously too inept to make big money in practicing the real craft but having to resort to becoming propagandists. Even the Imperial College model revised from 2.2 million to less than 200k, after 2days of semi-lockdown; it's obviously a hack piece with no scientific rigor or merit. The hospital can only save 10% or so of people who are put on the ventilator/intubation, which are the only tools that they have that are uniquely available at hospitals (pills and oxygen can be delivered at home); so in order to save 2 million by fitting "flattening the curve" and fitting patients under hospital capacity, the would have to be 20 million deaths at the same time! The entire theory of lock-down to "flatten the curve" makes zero sense when one realizes only a tiny percentage ICU patients suffering from the contagious disease survive . . . yet at the same time a trip to the hospital carry high risk of getting the disease and high risk for medical personnel to bring the disease to their families! The most deadly strains of the virus at the hospitals! Years from now, the 2020 disease will be known as the "2020 Lying Bureaucrats and Hospital Flu"
Reality saysSpeak of yourself. It's actually not an exponential curve but the left side of a Gaussian curve,
If you want to get technical, it's a sigma curve of which the left side is exponential. A Gaussian curve is a normal distribution curve, which is not an exponential curve on the left side.
LOL! "Sigma Distribution Curve" is the Gaussian Curve. It is indeed not an exponential curve on the left side, but the start of it (the left tail) approximates exponential. That's why the mathematically inept mistake it for the exponential curve.
The second part of the sentence is simply wrong. More lives are lost as a result of a lock-down policy.
That is completely wrong. All mathematical models, all simulations, and all expert analysis agree that the least in-person social interaction there is, the more the infection curve will flatten and the fewer people will die as the health care system will not have to perform as much triage.
The so-called talking-heads "experts" are making a mistake similar to what the "experts" 100 years ago did with their Asprin prescriptions (which killed the majority of the 50 million people died in the 1918-1919 Asprin-Flu), and "experts" 200 years ago did with their blood-letting therapy.
Scientific facts are based on math and physics (Chemistry and Biology are fundamentally physics too at the lower implementation level), not based on the opinions of talking heads, who are obviously too inept to make big money in practicing the real craft but having to resort to becoming propagandists. Even the Imperial College model revised from 2.2 million to less than 200k, after 2days of semi-lockdown; it's obviously a hack piece with no scientific rigor or merit. The hospital can only save 10% or so of people who are put on the ventilator/intubation, which are the only tools that they have that are uniquely available at hospitals (pills and oxygen can be delivered at home); so in order to save 2 million by fitting "flattening the curve" and fitting patients under hospital capacity, the would have to be 20 million deaths at the same time! The entire theory of lock-down to "flatten the curve" makes zero sense when one realizes only a tiny percentage ICU patients suffering from the contagious disease survive . . . yet at the same time a trip to the hospital carry high risk of getting the disease and high risk for medical personnel to bring the disease to their families! The most deadly strains of the virus at the hospitals! Years from now, the 2020 disease will be known as the "2020 Lying Bureaucrats and Hospital Flu"
129
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 2:56pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 2:56pm
thomasdong1776 says
Yes, but I am replying anyway. If we did not have an electoral college we would not have a constitutional republic. And God help us if we lived in a democracy. Can you imagine what the "Democratic Peoples Republic of America" would be like? The "people" would loot the treasury through the ballot box, dispossess the productive, and Venezuela would start to look like a place to go on vacation again.
irrelevant.
Yes, but I am replying anyway. If we did not have an electoral college we would not have a constitutional republic. And God help us if we lived in a democracy. Can you imagine what the "Democratic Peoples Republic of America" would be like? The "people" would loot the treasury through the ballot box, dispossess the productive, and Venezuela would start to look like a place to go on vacation again.
130
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 2:58pm
CBOEtrader says
Killing millions of Americans to prevent anticipated "lowered standards of livings leading to shorter lives and suicides" is just plain stupid. Anti-poverty programs could prevent such poverty. Nationalizing health insurance could also prevent shorter lives, as could taxing soda. You have a really bad solution for a problem that you are merely assuming will get worse if we don't let multitudes die. Bad solution.
You are ignoring lowered standards of living which have proven to shorten lives and even kill people, especially the poor, not to mention suicides.
Killing millions of Americans to prevent anticipated "lowered standards of livings leading to shorter lives and suicides" is just plain stupid. Anti-poverty programs could prevent such poverty. Nationalizing health insurance could also prevent shorter lives, as could taxing soda. You have a really bad solution for a problem that you are merely assuming will get worse if we don't let multitudes die. Bad solution.
131
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 2:59pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 2:59pm
thomasdong1776 says
They do have online civics and government classes where you can learn how our country works.
More votes equals more votes regardless of where they were cast.
They do have online civics and government classes where you can learn how our country works.
132
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 3:02pm
annoyed1 says
The lock-down of the society (while not locking down hospitals) will actually kill more people by artificially selecting the most deadly strains of the disease. We see that in the 2nd hump in the "flattening the curve" graph for St. Louis. The 2nd hump was larger than the 1st hump. Philadelphia didn't have the 2nd hump. Philadelphia had higher death in the 1st hump likely due to much higher population density and higher availability/use of Asprin from the far more common pharmacies in the city; St. Louis was a relatively frontier town back then.
Killing millions of Americans to prevent anticipated "lowered standards of livings leading to shorter lives and suicides" is just plain stupid. Anti-poverty programs could prevent such poverty. Nationalizing health insurance could also prevent shorter lives, as could taxing soda. You have a really bad solution for a problem that you are merely assuming will get worse if we don't let multitudes die. Bad solution.
The lock-down of the society (while not locking down hospitals) will actually kill more people by artificially selecting the most deadly strains of the disease. We see that in the 2nd hump in the "flattening the curve" graph for St. Louis. The 2nd hump was larger than the 1st hump. Philadelphia didn't have the 2nd hump. Philadelphia had higher death in the 1st hump likely due to much higher population density and higher availability/use of Asprin from the far more common pharmacies in the city; St. Louis was a relatively frontier town back then.
133
annoyed1
2020 Apr 2, 3:06pm
Reality says
Mathematicians understand the sigma function. No one is saying that virus infections increase exponentially indefinitely. Obviously you quickly run out of people in the world.
The 3blue1brown video clearly shows this at 5:00. The area of the curve left of the inflection point is, for all practical purposes, exponential. You are nickpicking. The bottom line is that the growth is dramatic until it reaches a maximum value, and you really don't want that max value to be 100% of the population. Optimistically, the fatality rate is 1%. It may be as high as 5%. But even 1% of Americans dying is over 3 million. I'm just saying we might want to avoid that.
www.youtube.com/embed/Kas0tIxDvrg
LOL! "Sigma Distribution Curve" is the Gaussian Curve. It is indeed not an exponential curve on the left side, but the start of it (the left tail) approximates exponential. That's why the mathematically inept mistake it for the exponential curve.
Mathematicians understand the sigma function. No one is saying that virus infections increase exponentially indefinitely. Obviously you quickly run out of people in the world.
The 3blue1brown video clearly shows this at 5:00. The area of the curve left of the inflection point is, for all practical purposes, exponential. You are nickpicking. The bottom line is that the growth is dramatic until it reaches a maximum value, and you really don't want that max value to be 100% of the population. Optimistically, the fatality rate is 1%. It may be as high as 5%. But even 1% of Americans dying is over 3 million. I'm just saying we might want to avoid that.
www.youtube.com/embed/Kas0tIxDvrg
134
Booger
2020 Apr 2, 3:07pm
Booger
2020 Apr 2, 3:07pm
annoyed1 says
Lots of hospitals are still relatively empty.
That is completely wrong. All mathematical models, all simulations, and all expert analysis agree that the least in-person social interaction there is, the more the infection curve will flatten and the fewer people will die as the health care system will not have to perform as much triage
Lots of hospitals are still relatively empty.
136
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:15pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:15pm
annoyed1 says
And if the virus don't get them the wetbulb will!
Virus that cause epidemics "burn out" by infecting and killing most of a population before they can continue to spread.
And if the virus don't get them the wetbulb will!
137
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:18pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 3:18pm
Reality says
The asymptote of disaster!
That's why the mathematically inept mistake it for the exponential curve.
The asymptote of disaster!
138
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 3:21pm
annoyed1 says
Not nit-picking at all. The alarmists were/are claiming it to be an exponential curve. More importantly: the "running out of people in the world" is not limited by the total number of people but by the total number of people not yet exposed to the virus. That's why getting as many people exposed to the virus as quickly as possible is actually a good thing! Given that we have no real effective cure in the hospital. The alarmists were also against the Hydroxychloroquine, which is fairly close to an effective cure! So it's quite clear that the alarmists were trying to kill as many people as possible! i.e. Murderous on top of being Treasonous for trying to kill the economy.
The fatality rate is not anywhere close to 1%, but more likely 0.03%. That means close to 100k Americans, or similar to a bad flu (80k+ for 2018). Nearly 100% of the population will be exposed to the virus, as it will become the 5th communal coronavirus, along with the 4 other types of coronavirus that cause cold and flu every year before 2019.
If there were a highly contagious disease that kills 1% to 5% of the population, locking down still wouldn't work: anyone not exposed to it yet would get it as soon as the lockdown is lifted! So any lockdown without massive deaths taking out the most deadly strains of the virus is just a waste of time. A prolonged lockdown would result in crime waves and social collapse that kill far more than 5% of the population!
Mathematicians understand the sigma function. No one is saying that virus infections increase exponentially indefinitely. Obviously you quickly run out of people in the world.
The 3blue1brown video clearly shows this at 5:00. The area of the curve left of the inflection point is, for all practical purposes, exponential. You are nickpicking.
Not nit-picking at all. The alarmists were/are claiming it to be an exponential curve. More importantly: the "running out of people in the world" is not limited by the total number of people but by the total number of people not yet exposed to the virus. That's why getting as many people exposed to the virus as quickly as possible is actually a good thing! Given that we have no real effective cure in the hospital. The alarmists were also against the Hydroxychloroquine, which is fairly close to an effective cure! So it's quite clear that the alarmists were trying to kill as many people as possible! i.e. Murderous on top of being Treasonous for trying to kill the economy.
The bottom line is that the growth is dramatic until it reaches a maximum value, and you really don't want that max value to be 100% of the population. Optimistically, the fatality rate is 1%. It may be as high as 5%. But even 1% of Americans dying is over 3 million.
The fatality rate is not anywhere close to 1%, but more likely 0.03%. That means close to 100k Americans, or similar to a bad flu (80k+ for 2018). Nearly 100% of the population will be exposed to the virus, as it will become the 5th communal coronavirus, along with the 4 other types of coronavirus that cause cold and flu every year before 2019.
If there were a highly contagious disease that kills 1% to 5% of the population, locking down still wouldn't work: anyone not exposed to it yet would get it as soon as the lockdown is lifted! So any lockdown without massive deaths taking out the most deadly strains of the virus is just a waste of time. A prolonged lockdown would result in crime waves and social collapse that kill far more than 5% of the population!
139
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 3:27pm
annoyed1 says
We are at the end of the flu/cold/coronavirus season!
If a lot of people flock to the hospitals, they will get the virus at high viral load! Just like in Wuhan and in Bergamo, the only two cities in the world that experienced multiple times the normal local winter daily death count. The alarmists/exaggerators were/are literally screaming fire in a crowded theater in their desire to start a stampede in order to kill people! They desired to topple Trump, but their own stupidity is actually making Trump's re-election a certainty: because in times of crisis, people flock to the flag and their existing leaders.
Lots of hospitals are still relatively empty.
Again, exponential growth.
We are at the end of the flu/cold/coronavirus season!
If a lot of people flock to the hospitals, they will get the virus at high viral load! Just like in Wuhan and in Bergamo, the only two cities in the world that experienced multiple times the normal local winter daily death count. The alarmists/exaggerators were/are literally screaming fire in a crowded theater in their desire to start a stampede in order to kill people! They desired to topple Trump, but their own stupidity is actually making Trump's re-election a certainty: because in times of crisis, people flock to the flag and their existing leaders.
140
EBGuy
2020 Apr 2, 4:00pm
Overall fatality rate in South Korea is 1.69%. This is how it breaks down by age.
141
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 4:22pm
ThreeBays says
The overwhelming majority of cases of exposure/infection result in no symptoms or very mild symptoms. "Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures. The Diamond Princess case showed us that there can be as many as 70-80% of the population out there having had exposure but no illness (i.e. they tested negative despite having mingled with carriers for weeks! proving their body had the antibodies that could fight it off). Death with corona-virus of any kind doesn't mean death with COVID-19, much less death due to COVID-19. Re-examining the Italian cases showed that only 5% of the allegedly dead with the corona-virus was actually due to COVID-19.
The total daily death from all causes is not showing any spike anywhere in the world except for Wuhan (a metro of about 10 million people) and Bergamo (a town of about 120k people). Both spikes were likely due to people flocking to hospitals and getting themselves exposed at high viral load as they waited in hospitals for hours! There is no pandemic when there is no spike in total daily death count (3x normal or more, as normal bad flu year can kill 3x or more than usual). Classifying the same comparable number of daily dead bodies whichever way is quite a meaningless exercise. The whole thing is quite possibly a hoax, and the propagandists caused more flu deaths than there would have been in a bad flu year as they scared people into rushing into hospitals.
COVID-19 is now in the millionaire club with over 1M confirmed cases. 52,892 known deaths. That puts the known fatality ratio of 5.3%.
Deaths lag cases by 2 to 3 weeks. Two weeks ago there were only 245K confirmed cases, which would put the forward fatality ratio at 21.5%. Eesh.
The $10 Trillion dollar question is what % of cases are unknown.
The overwhelming majority of cases of exposure/infection result in no symptoms or very mild symptoms. "Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures. The Diamond Princess case showed us that there can be as many as 70-80% of the population out there having had exposure but no illness (i.e. they tested negative despite having mingled with carriers for weeks! proving their body had the antibodies that could fight it off). Death with corona-virus of any kind doesn't mean death with COVID-19, much less death due to COVID-19. Re-examining the Italian cases showed that only 5% of the allegedly dead with the corona-virus was actually due to COVID-19.
The total daily death from all causes is not showing any spike anywhere in the world except for Wuhan (a metro of about 10 million people) and Bergamo (a town of about 120k people). Both spikes were likely due to people flocking to hospitals and getting themselves exposed at high viral load as they waited in hospitals for hours! There is no pandemic when there is no spike in total daily death count (3x normal or more, as normal bad flu year can kill 3x or more than usual). Classifying the same comparable number of daily dead bodies whichever way is quite a meaningless exercise. The whole thing is quite possibly a hoax, and the propagandists caused more flu deaths than there would have been in a bad flu year as they scared people into rushing into hospitals.
142
Reality
2020 Apr 2, 4:29pm
Tim Aurora says
If the population were indeed coronavirus-virgins, the after mingling for weeks, the passengers on the Diamond Princess should have been 100% tested positive, but the actual tests yielde only 20-30% That means the 70-80% of the passengers had immunity from exposure earlier in the season.
Is that your conclusion "Einstein" or do you have reference to the link.
If the population were indeed coronavirus-virgins, the after mingling for weeks, the passengers on the Diamond Princess should have been 100% tested positive, but the actual tests yielde only 20-30% That means the 70-80% of the passengers had immunity from exposure earlier in the season.
143
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 4:39pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 4:39pm
Reality says
Good luck. I fear you're talking to a wall at this point.... Links would be nice, but your reasoning is logical in my opinion and non-political. I like the counter argument though... lol.
Tim Aurora says
"Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures.
Good luck. I fear you're talking to a wall at this point.... Links would be nice, but your reasoning is logical in my opinion and non-political. I like the counter argument though... lol.
Tim Aurora says
You are on a roll "Einstein"
144
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 4:51pm
Onvacation
2020 Apr 2, 4:51pm
annoyed1 says
No they don't.
50 years after Johnson's "war on poverty" the poverty rate has changed little. What has changed a lot is the out of wedlock birthrate, the explosion of entitlements (housing vouchers, food stamps, etc.), and the deterioration of inner city conditions.
What progressives don't understand is that wealth must be created AND maintained by the hard work of productive people. Wealth is not just a "thing" that can be redistributed without negative consequence. If you kill the hen for a BBQ your not getting any more eggs.
Anti-poverty programs could prevent such poverty.
No they don't.
50 years after Johnson's "war on poverty" the poverty rate has changed little. What has changed a lot is the out of wedlock birthrate, the explosion of entitlements (housing vouchers, food stamps, etc.), and the deterioration of inner city conditions.
What progressives don't understand is that wealth must be created AND maintained by the hard work of productive people. Wealth is not just a "thing" that can be redistributed without negative consequence. If you kill the hen for a BBQ your not getting any more eggs.
145
marcus
2020 Apr 2, 5:01pm
marcus
2020 Apr 2, 5:01pm
ThreeBays says
You're a fast learner
annoyed1 saysI haven't been on this site long, but I get the distinct impression that if the democrats were in power, the people here would be calling the pandemic the worst thing in all of history.
You're a fast learner
146
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 9:36pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 2, 9:36pm
ThreeBays says
What the fuck??? No one was talking to you.... Don't give a fuck what someone else was acknowledging in what I quoted in my comment. Get over yourself brah.
WookieMan saysReality says"Confirmed cases" is not at all the total number of exposures.
Good luck. I fear you're talking to a wall at this point.... Links would be nice, but your reasoning is logical in my opinion and non-political. I like the counter argument though... lol.
Considering I was acknowledging that fact in the post he quoted, these comments are hilarious.
What the fuck??? No one was talking to you.... Don't give a fuck what someone else was acknowledging in what I quoted in my comment. Get over yourself brah.
147
goofus
2020 Apr 3, 11:30am
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (scroll down to the graphs)
We're about to hit the 0.0003 (a.k.a., 10,000 deaths) by the end of the weekend. The US is continuing its exponential climb in both infections and deaths -- a rate higher than either Italy's or Spain's -- without any downward shift.
Conservatives, please take this seriously. There's a "nothingburger" denialism on the right, similar to the left's "hug a Chinese person / fight xenophobia" laxity. The US is doing none of the mitigation efforts, beyond "self-quarantine," that east Asian countries have. We may doubt China's numbers (and I do, to some extent), but South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore report similar successes in keeping COVID under control. It wasn't herd immunity, either, accounting for the low infection and death rates -- S Korea tested 338,000 as of March 24th, and only 3% were positive. Additionally, the numbers flattened too quickly to reflect population-scale immunity.
We in the US must adopt what worked in E Asian countries: widespread availability of masks, medications (HCQ, azithromycin, zinc), testing, mandatory quarantine of positives, and urban spraying.
I see the CDC's weak response -- no foresight on masks, defective tests, no clinical trials of promising medication (apart from the most expensive, Gilead's Remdesivir), no availability of hydroxychloroquine -- as the fault of the CDC. Trump can be blamed insofar as he keeps worthless hacks like Anthony "masks don't work / hydroxychloroquine is anecdotal" Fauci on his task force. Fauci btw was a Clinton Foundation board member and political opportunist.
We're about to hit the 0.0003 (a.k.a., 10,000 deaths) by the end of the weekend. The US is continuing its exponential climb in both infections and deaths -- a rate higher than either Italy's or Spain's -- without any downward shift.
Conservatives, please take this seriously. There's a "nothingburger" denialism on the right, similar to the left's "hug a Chinese person / fight xenophobia" laxity. The US is doing none of the mitigation efforts, beyond "self-quarantine," that east Asian countries have. We may doubt China's numbers (and I do, to some extent), but South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore report similar successes in keeping COVID under control. It wasn't herd immunity, either, accounting for the low infection and death rates -- S Korea tested 338,000 as of March 24th, and only 3% were positive. Additionally, the numbers flattened too quickly to reflect population-scale immunity.
We in the US must adopt what worked in E Asian countries: widespread availability of masks, medications (HCQ, azithromycin, zinc), testing, mandatory quarantine of positives, and urban spraying.
I see the CDC's weak response -- no foresight on masks, defective tests, no clinical trials of promising medication (apart from the most expensive, Gilead's Remdesivir), no availability of hydroxychloroquine -- as the fault of the CDC. Trump can be blamed insofar as he keeps worthless hacks like Anthony "masks don't work / hydroxychloroquine is anecdotal" Fauci on his task force. Fauci btw was a Clinton Foundation board member and political opportunist.
148
WookieMan
2020 Apr 3, 4:02pm
WookieMan
2020 Apr 3, 4:02pm
First personal suicide I know by overdose on drugs. Wasn’t a druggie at all.... had kids and a lot of life and good family support structure she couldn’t see during these old people dying times.
For my personal sphere:
CV 2 - suicide 1
Something else is gonna hickey stick or exponentially rise. Wake the fuck up people. We’re gonna end up killing double the people we need to and lose some people that can actually produce....
For my personal sphere:
CV 2 - suicide 1
Something else is gonna hickey stick or exponentially rise. Wake the fuck up people. We’re gonna end up killing double the people we need to and lose some people that can actually produce....
149
mell
2020 Apr 3, 5:45pm
goofus says
Not true. Most states are coping relatively fine with their own measures. The majority of the cases responsible for the spike are in NY. When NY spikes total cases will recede as well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (scroll down to the graphs)
We're about to hit the 0.0003 (a.k.a., 10,000 deaths) by the end of the weekend. The US is continuing its exponential climb in both infections and deaths -- a rate higher than either Italy's or Spain's -- without any downward shift.
Conservatives, please take this seriously. There's a "nothingburger" denialism on the right, similar to the left's "hug a Chinese person / fight xenophobia" laxity. The US is doing none of the mitigation efforts, beyond "self-quarantine," that east Asian countries have. We may doubt China's numbers (and I do, to some extent), but South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore report similar successes in keeping COVID under control. It wasn't herd immunity, either, accounting for the low infection and death rates -- S Korea tested 338,000 as of Mar...
Not true. Most states are coping relatively fine with their own measures. The majority of the cases responsible for the spike are in NY. When NY spikes total cases will recede as well.
150
BoomAndBustCycle
2020 Apr 3, 5:56pm
The lesson that needs to be learned is that our healthcare workers are going to bear the brunt of this and future pandemics. And Trump downplaying the concerns of healthcare workers is shameful. If 2-3% of otherwise healthy nurses and doctors die from being overly exposed to this virus that's on poor logistics. Just be grateful this is basically a dry run for a far worse pandemic in a few years. If this virus attacked babies and school age kids... as bad as it attacked the elderly.... you would be burned at the stake for your lack of concern.
151
Eman
2020 Apr 3, 6:07pm
Eman
2020 Apr 3, 6:07pm
Mandate everyone wears a mask outside of their house and send them back to work. Practice social distance at work. Those who are sick, stay home and self quarantine. This SIP is BS and is killing people and the economy.
152
Patrick
2020 Apr 3, 6:08pm
Patrick
2020 Apr 3, 6:08pm
E-man says
Agreed.
Mandate everyone wears a mask outside of their house and send them back to work. Practice social distance at work. Those who are sick, stay home and self quarantine. This SIP is BS and is killing people and the economy.
Agreed.
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Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?
Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.
Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.
So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.
Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.
It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.