patrick.net

Reality says

If that's how that article presented the 2nd peak, then the article was classic FUD. Nov 13 vs. Nov 27 was only 14days apart. Both dates belonged to the same peak in the graph, which was showing a second peak many months after the first peak.

That was me editorializing about this graph.

The whole "excess death" question is interesting. I'm sure it was a bit more obvious with the Spanish Flu as it hijacked the immune system, with healthier, young people being more susceptible.
Even today, NYC Health is showing less than 2% of the deaths attributed to individuals having "No Underlying Conditions" (numbers juiced a bit by including 380 deaths with Underlying Conditions Pending).

Reality says

I did not write what you put between quotation marks. See, Marcus, one thing about a person capable of independent thought process is that I do not regurgitate what other people say. In fact, I hadn't even read what you put between the quotation marks there. You will have to ask whoever wrote those to explain to you what he or she meant.

Well, I'll take this as a sign of where we are at in this.

Maybe it's wrong to put quotation marks around a paraphrasing of someones argument. How could it not be obvious that I did not think you said exactly that ?

I was paraphrasing. Was this not an indication of anything to you ?

Reality says

DO I have the following right ?

Was asking if if my paraphrasing is correct.

In any case, it's very clear where we are in this argument. "I hadn't even read what you put between the quotation marks there."

Gotcha, I'm done.

marcus says

Well, I'll take this as a sign of where we are at in this.

Maybe it's wrong to put quotation marks around a paraphrasing of someones argument. How could it not be obvious that I did not think you said exactly that ?

I was paraphrasing. Was this not an indication of anything to you ?

It was an indication that you were resorting to mis-attribution and lies. I used to have more respect for your integrity.

marcus says

Reality says

DO I have the following right ?

You wrote that sentence. I didn't.

marcus says

Was asking if if my paraphrasing is correct.

In any case, it's very clear where we are in this argument. "I hadn't even read what you put between the quotation marks there."

Gotcha, I'm done.

I not only did not write what you put between the quotation marks, I hadn't even read anyone writing that before reading your words between the quotation marks. What you put between the quotation marks had little to do with what I wrote. Your words between those quotation marks were projecting your own murderous proclivities, whereas I was pointing out removing the lock-down would save lives even without considering economic effect.

Marcus, you are proving to be a shameless lying propagandist with little knowledge in science or math but resorting to silly word games to facilitate your lies. At this point, I'm inclined to disbelieve your claim to be a public school math teacher, but likely a paid shill that one day may well hang upside down from a lamp-post if this lock-down continues for any significant length. To answer your titular question of the thread: the biggest error in thinking regarding Covid-19 is that whoever cooked up this hoax exploiting a bad flu season mistakenly thought destroying the economy under the pretense of a pandemic would automatically make Trump unpopular due to bad economy, whereas in reality crises tend to galvanize support for sitting presidents . . . and the overwhelming majority of the public see through the scam quite readily and lay the blame on the scammers.

There are now 3000+ different strains of "Covid-19" having been genetically sequenced. Obviously, much of whatever are tossed under "Covid-19" umbrella have been in existence among human population for many years if not decades; what used to be called Flu, Cold and Pneumonia in years past are all being tossed under the "Covid-19" label.

:

Some people just aren't good at losing arguments.

Me, when I'm wrong I admit it.

marcus says

DO I have the following right ?

"The reason why it's growing like this now is that the hospitals are petri dishes for the most deadly strains of the virus. And since we have lockdown the population itself isn't out there as a buffer against the deadly strain(s) that's being shared by the hospital workers."

I can be accused of trying to make sense of what largely didn't make sense to me. Or of using quotation marks for what very obviously was not a quote, otherwise why would I say "have I got this right ?"

I was arguing in good faith and not attacking you. But when someone is too self absorbed to even care or listen to a person they are arguing with, or when they are triggered becasue they realize their argument doesn't make sense, I guess this is what happens:

Reality says

Marcus, you are proving to be a shameless lying propagandist with little knowledge in science or math but resorting to silly word games to facilitate your lies. At this point, I'm inclined to disbelieve your claim to be a public school math teacher, but likely a paid shill that one day may well hang upside down from a lamp-post if this lock-down continues for any significant length. To answer your titular question of the thread: the biggest error in thinking regarding Covid-19 is that whoever cooked up this hoax exploiting a bad flu season mistakenly thought destroying the economy under the pretense of a pandemic would automatically make Trump unpopular due to bad economy,

Well at least now I get the goal of your word games. I tried to cut through the crap and make sense out of them, and right when I had dug deep enough to see it was a conclusion looking for an argument, and your logic completely falls apart, somehow I'm a liar that's attacking you.

Have a little honesty and read the exchange up to and including comment number 46. I know you have neither the honesty nor the integrity to admit that I was arguing in good faith. If it's wrong to use quotes on an attempted paraphrase. fine - but how can you not know what I was saying was not a quote quote.

Read what you said before. How is my paraphrase not an honest attempt to succinctly paraphrases a part of your argument ?

Such a childish tactic, but then again you are a Trump fan boy.

NoCoupForYou says

 

Schools should be open. Workplaces should be open. For anybody under 60-65,life should be normal

For those over 60-65, there should be voluntary "Senior Hours" at Pharmacies and Groceries the first couple of hours in the morning to give the old folks a chance and piss off hoarders.

No visiting assisted living, senior care facilities, nursing homes. They can set up skype chats. Retirees should stay at home, and there should be fines for repeat frivolous trips or gathering to play cards and shit for the elderly.

International Travel to places currently experiencing increasing levels or peak spread should be banned. It gets lifted a week or so after the trajectory clearly has plateaued.

Other than that, Life's a Bitch So Keep on Trucki

This is a test run for the next inevitable pandemic that kills children and babies... people would be losing their minds x100 if this virus targeted kids new immune systems.

marcus says

But when someone is too self absorbed to even care or listen to a person they are communicating with

Speak of yourself. You are way too self-absorbed in your "petri dishes" and "buffer" (treating people/population like livestock in your mind) while keep twisting my words instead of trying to listen. Virus doesn't recognize "petri dishes" or "buffer" assignment. Virus only face opportunities vs. lack of opportunities. If the government locks down the healthier human population that statistically carry the less lethal virus strains, while not locking down the hospitals where dying patients go and statistically the more deadly strains are over-represented, the result is that the more deadly strains get more opportunities to find new hosts and replicate than the relatively benign strains do. As the virus continues to mutate (as RNA virii always do), the perverse selection continues at every generation, yielding more and more deadly strains at the expense of less deadly strains. It's really not complicated.

I know you have neither the honesty nor the integrity to admit that I was arguing in good faith.

You were not arguing in good faith. It's astonishing that a self-claimed math teacher would have no inkling about the Law of Large Numbers. It's astonishing that such a person would have so little inkling about how evolution / artificial-selection works. It's astonishing that such a person would have no idea that RNA virus mutates frequently, and therefore a survey of the relative lethality of different strains snap-shot at a particular time is nowhere nearly as important/fundamental as statistical dynamics in ongoing generations. Why the insertion of "petri dishes" and "buffer"? neither words I ever used, then for you to build your core argument on them being expendables therefore they'd all be dead by definition of being expendables. My argument did not at all assume them to be expendables; it's simply a statistical Law of Large Numbers argument, pointing out the effective artificial-selection under the societal lock-down while not locking-down the hospitals.

ThreeBays says

I found this video useful for explaining more of the viruses' lifecycle that we should be considering here.

Admittedly I didn't watch this. Understand you're looking at a YouTub channel with over half a million subscribers with content that can make them money. This does appear to be a medical channel. But, every YouTube channel on the planet has come out with a Corona video. Why do you think that is? And would you necessarily believe that information?

I'm not a pilot, but a few aviation channels I watch had subscription rates double when Kobe Bryants chopper went down putting out daily updates. People need to open their eyes and understand generating revenue does not equate to truth anymore. Probably never has anyway. This is a moment of opportunity for tons of people that know dick about a virus.

The only people I'd trust right now are nurses and doctors. In my area bordering 2 of the largest cities/town in IL, things have been relatively tame. Rely on Youtube for entertainment, not medial advice. It's almost certainly clickbait. During the Trump era I'd also be HIGHLY skeptical of government, especially from parties that don't agree with Trump. We've seen it time and time again that they'll eat their young to try and take Trump down.

Reality says

Why the insertion of "petri dishes" and "buffer"? neither words I ever used, then for you to build your core argument on them being expendables therefore they'd all be dead by definition of being expendables.

I was only making a concise statement of what I honestly thought you were saying (i.e. a part of your argument) before refuting it (and I prefaced it with, "have I got this right?"). The purpose of those words was to paraphrase, it was my attempt to be concise and clear as to what I was going to refute.

I don't make rambling statements only designed to impress that are devoid of any logical content or argument . I needed to make my best attempt at understanding what you were saying before I responded. Being concise allowed me to clearly get to my logical point which had nothing to do with that choice of words.

Making a concise statement of what one believes the other is saying, before refuting it, is showing the respect of trying to understand the point the other is making. (and again, I did say, have I got this right ?)

As far as I can tell you are just floundering now in an attempt to explain why you spazzed out after comment # 46.