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Wuhan virus "cases surging" news is fear mongering

By Patrick follow Patrick   2020 Jun 27, 1:33pm 121 views   6 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Exhibit A:



Note that cases rose while deaths fell or remained flat.

Why would daily deaths peak in mid-April if there were fewer than half today's daily new cases back then?

Exhibit B:



Gosh, tests are continuously increasing. What do you think is going to happen with ever more tests per day? If you guessed "ever more cases reported per day", you are correct.
1   Ceffer   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 27, 1:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

People waking up, I hope, to the travesty? The surf cams show very few people walking along the beach wearing masks any more. A handful are wearing bandido kerchiefs around the neck in case harrassed by a Karen.

Right now, the psyops artists are merely calculating the social control attenuation and post-exhaustion factors and they need to keep the panic pumped to see how long they can maintain the politics of the situation. They want to know the saturation and pushback levels, which seem pending. However, I thought the pushbacks would come a lot sooner than they did.

It would be just lovely if it all fell flat as a pancake two to three months before actual elections. Deep State FAIL! Bring on ACT IV, which will need to be a false flag whopper or assassination of major proportions, so it might get quite a bit uglier before November.
2   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 27, 1:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ceffer says
It would be just lovely if it all fell flat as a pancake two to three months before actual elections. Deep State FAIL! Bring on ACT IV, which will need to be a false flag whopper or assassination of major proportions, so it might get quite a bit uglier before November.


I'm afraid you're right.

Nearly four years of anti-Trump media hysteria didn't work.

Russia didn't work.

Impeachment didn't work.

Wuhan virus media hysteria did wipe out millions of jobs, but Trump still looks likely to win in November.

So yes, I'm afraid the people who profit from outsourcing jobs to China and insourcing illegals at the expense of US citizens' jobs will create the mother of all false-flag operations to protect those profitable operations.
3   mell   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 27, 1:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

To play devils advocate, deaths come in somewhat delayed to new cases - however most of the new cases are all young people and generally the Chinese/Wuhan virus has been adapting to become less lethal as most viruses do to survive, currently it's 99% vs 1% mild to serious cases, if you assume that maybe max. 1 out of 10 serious cases dies, the death rate would be around 0.1% or lower. So I expect the deaths to solidly below 1k, probably mostly below 500 per day, which are mostly deaths with Covid not due to Covid anyways. And yes we're testing more so we will have more confirmed cases with the real number of infections/exposure likely 10-fold higher. It is clear now that we are being harassed and denigrated for political reasons and a leftoid power-grab only.
4   Patrick   ignore (1)   2020 Jun 27, 1:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Yes, there are some new cases that are above the rate of new testing, but they are not going to result in deaths, because, as a commenter on https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/when-will-exploding-cases-lead-to-more-deaths put it:

Axiom7
21 hrs

You cannot predict change in death rate without knowing the age of the new cases. If they are under 75, there will be no uptick in deaths. If they are asymptomatic with a positive antibody test, no uptick in deaths.

Just simple conditional probability. But people don't like math so more hysteria.

Said another way - you CANNOT predict future deaths with CONFIRMED CASE statistics if you don't adjust for (1) age; (2) age; (3) age; (4) in nursing home; (5) # of comorbidities.

A case on a person under 75 with no comorbids is 0.1% chance of death.
5   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 27, 9:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Unless or until there’s a vaccine, the total dead probably won’t be different between places where extreme lockdowns were done and places like Sweden.

The shape of the graphs will vary, but the areas under them will be the same, total deaths will likely be the same.

The bullshit panic is so maddening.
6   mell   ignore (5)   2020 Jun 28, 1:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Deaths are declining fast. It's possible or even likely that the death rate is quite like the seasonal flu and far less than the pandemic flu. If you assume 25 Million likely had it (confirmed times 10) even with the inflated reporting of deaths with not due to Covid it is already well below 1% and falling. My estimate is it will end up somewhere around 0.1% (which is equal to the seasonal flu) or below. We probably have never tracked and overreported a respiratory virus like this one which (confirmation bias) led to false initial high death rates.

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