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Rin's 5 min take on Bitcoin


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2021 Feb 27, 7:59pm   8,724 views  149 comments

by Rin   ➕follow (13)   💰tip   ignore  

In another thread ...

Just for some fun, I've decided to run a weekly price bar chart, with Fibonaccis on the whole thing ...



Here's the scoop, now that bigger institutes, along with the retail traders are into this speculation, there are actually trading zones for this thing because there are lots of players, not just the penny stock speculators.

So since last week's bearish candle engulfs the prior week's bullish one, we're on a retest of the price near the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. If that level holds, we have a bounce in place ... ready to go.

If it falls through that region w/ no intraweek support, then it falls to the next trading zone, and so on.

For this to be a bust, it needs to get back to the baseline.

I suspect that the big fish will issue a huge buyback in the 23K range, if not earlier (29K-35K). Sure, this thing may evaporate in the future if the concept of digital gold doesn't hold but between now and then, this is a trader's entity.

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21   Onvacation   2021 Mar 1, 3:07pm  

G36 says
they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold.

That or they have so much fucking money that throwing a couple billion into a crypto gambling bet is chump change. FOMO. Another possibility is that the executives of some of these companies are moving money offshore.

Or maybe it is Gold 2.0.

A big disadvantage over real gold is that after it is mined it has to be mined again and again...

With real gold you mine it and refine it once, and it is useful for the ages.
22   Eric Holder   2021 Mar 1, 3:12pm  

G36 says
they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold.


Paypal is not "buy and hold" - Paypal is collecting hefty fees from every transaction made by their customers trading Bitcoin.
23   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 1, 7:20pm  

Onvacation says
maybe it is Gold 2.0.


yep. you go it
24   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 1, 7:20pm  

Rin says
of digital 'gold' may emerge

exactly
25   GlocknLoad   2021 Mar 1, 9:38pm  

Onvacation says
A big disadvantage over real gold is that after it is mined it has to be mined again and again...

Wait, what? I've never heard of that. Please explain.
26   Patrick   2021 Mar 1, 9:56pm  

For any transaction to happen with Bitcoin, some miners have to be paid enough commission to "mine" the transaction, ie scan through a zillion possible hashes of the transaction to find one that has the right number of 0's at the end.

Summary: transactions all have a cost with Bitcoin. I suppose that's true for gold as well.
27   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 4:17am  

Patrick says

Summary: transactions all have a cost with Bitcoin. I suppose that's true for gold as well.

Every transaction with anything has a cost since humans started transacting. Ultimately it's the value of what you're transacting in. Food and water is more valuable than BTC. Actually fresh water is the most valuable asset on the planet and that value grows daily as population grows. A place like Phoenix, AZ would cease to exist overnight (much of it) if water was cut off.

Yes the dollar is just a piece of paper. But that paper is backed by something that can blow other people up at the push of a button. There are assets, land, resources, etc. Metals and other physical assets can be used. BTC can't. Ever. It's recreating the wheel under the guise of "tech" and "currency" of the future. It's marketing...

BTC and crypto is nothing. It's a spreadsheet. It's a video game. All other fiat currency is backed by something. Crypto is not currency, it's a made up video game that rich people now manipulate and extract money from those that don't know it's a game. If you can play the game and win some cash, go ahead. No different than a slot pull. Ultimately the house wins though if you play long enough.
28   theoakman   2021 Mar 2, 5:23am  

The thing about Bitcoin is that it has already survived more than 10 years and the network has consistently grown. Nigeria and India are trying to shut it down and it appears they are failing. The system really was an ingenious design. As far as another crypto making it obsolete, that would have happened already IMO. Light coin is a literal clone of bitcoin yet trades for less than 1% of the price.


Ethereum seems to have real staying power as well as their decentralized network keeps consistently growing.

I avoided investing out of fears of government reprisal and better networks making it obsolete. Institutional investment and ETFs holding it is the final piece of the puzzle that ultimately makes this legit. Fact remains, the 3rd world has been successfully using it to avoid the shenanigans of their governments. So far it's been a success.
29   HeadSet   2021 Mar 2, 6:28am  

theoakman says
Fact remains, the 3rd world has been successfully using it to avoid the shenanigans of their governments.

Yes, and that stealth quality made bitcoin an integral component in creating the ransomeware criminal industry.
30   Onvacation   2021 Mar 2, 7:15am  

GlocknLoad says
Onvacation says
A big disadvantage over real gold is that after it is mined it has to be mined again and again...

Wait, what? I've never heard of that. Please explain.

Gold is a store of value because a lot of capital and labor was used to mine and refine it. Once that is done you forever have a lump of shiny useful metal. It's a store of value for the capital and labor put into it.

When a bitcoin is "mined" it means a "miner" has been first to figure out the puzzle to update the ledger. All of the coins already "mined" are updated. If the "mining" stopped there would be no record of "ownership". No shiny lump of nothing. It takes a lot of capital and labor to "mine" a bitcoin but that effort is not stored in the "coins". It is consumed by the "miners". Bitcoin is just an elaborate scheme to make the fools think they have "digital gold".
31   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 7:20am  

theoakman says
I avoided investing out of fears of government reprisal and better networks making it obsolete. Institutional investment and ETFs holding it is the final piece of the puzzle that ultimately makes this legit. Fact remains, the 3rd world has been successfully using it to avoid the shenanigans of their governments. So far it's been a success.

Success is relative. BTC itself has done this before. It's been pumped and then dumped for 3 years starting in late 2017. Prior 6-7 years is was basically flat and no life changing growth. The market makers are getting in now after the last cycle in 2017/18. This one will result in the same thing as 2018 for crypto. It will crash. It's a game.

I'm sorry, but physical assets of any kind matter. There is no physical asset with BTC and it's traded in fiat, which is why it's doomed. And there was a creator. Likely a group of wealthy people. Or wealthy people took it over and will manipulate it to take your money. This is wealth extraction at its finest.

Key in life is to start a business and extract money from others instead of gambling on a payout from the owners. Be the owner. Be the casino. Crypto is a fraud. Enron paid employees a lot at one point too....
32   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Mar 2, 7:56am  

G36 says
Bitcoiners dont sell. Sure, there is new money that panic sells at losses (dumb money) but the majority of Bitcoin holders dont sell. They HODL because they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold. So why would the price dumb then?
Its miner pools. Mining is a business. They have to sell at some point and they have massive amounts of Bitcoin that they accumulate during bear markets and unload during a bull run. Its actually extremely healthy to prolong the cycle and it gives new money and traders an entry point. During the last Bull run in 2017 we saw 30-40% dips at least 3-4 times before the peak. Its normal for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will see at least 100k this cycle. You can bet the farm on it. Watch and see.


WookieMan says
There is no physical asset with BTC and it's traded in fiat, which is why it's doomed. And there was a creator. Likely a group of wealthy people. Or wealthy people took it over and will manipulate it to take your money. This is wealth extraction at its finest.


Silly Wookie. Don't you know, "It's different this time"?.
33   Rin   2021 Mar 2, 8:53am  

G36 says
Rin says
of digital 'gold' may emerge

exactly


With the caveat that what's at present ... doesn't earmark the future.

In 1999, the internet was on the verge of becoming global w/ hi-speed access from nearly anywhere on the globe. Only a dozen years later, that was the case for much of the nations outside of toilets like central Africa.

Global Crossing, the highly capitalized 1 tier telecom conglomerate was suppose to lead that run with cables under all the ocean floors, etc back in '99. Well, thanks for accounting shenanigans and the dotcom bust, they went bankrupt by 2002.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/globalcrossing.asp

Still, the fall of the dotcom giant didn't end the proliferation of the internet. But who'd want to be stuck with Global Crossing shares come 2002?

Likewise, the current wave of cryptos may go belly up but come 2030, perhaps some digital media, held between a basket of nations and their servers' ledgers, may be a sort of international crypto.
34   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 2, 9:25am  

2030 sounds good to me. I will be filthy rich by then (got in early with Bitcoin, ADA, ETH, etc)
35   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 9:29am  

G36 says
2030 sounds good to me. I will be filthy rich by then (got in early with Bitcoin, ADA, ETH, etc)

On $20k? Lol.
36   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 2, 9:43am  

yeah, with your portfolio of 5k in stocks (LUV) you wont be rich, thats correct @wookieMan.

BTW, beautiful weather here in Socal. Sorry its another shitty day in IL (heard this is the case all year).
Sry bud!
37   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 10:42am  

G36 says
yeah, with your portfolio of 5k in stocks (LUV) you wont be rich, thats correct @wookieMan.

BTW, beautiful weather here in Socal. Sorry its another shitty day in IL (heard this is the case all year).
Sry bud!

I was in Phoenix spending my gains I got on NCLH and LUV. 30% and 37% ain't bad. Golfed Dove Valley, Rancho Manana, Legend Trail and Quintero. I don't do free activities because I have money.... Enjoy the bike though that cost less than my driver.

Next up is FL. I'm not insane, I like to get out to new places and meet new people. Change is good. You should think about traveling with all your crypto gains..... Let me know if you want to see the view. It was better than your place, I can promise that.
38   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 2, 10:45am  

WookieMan says
I can promise that.


I know. You told us you only have 100 shares in LUV. You wont go far with that. No need to promise it.

BTW. beautiful weather here in Socal. Sorry you live in IL and have shitty weather all year. Are you depressed?
39   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 2, 10:49am  

maybe we can call it the BSDS?

40   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 10:55am  

G36 says
Are you depressed?

Projecting much? You can't even mention ONE place you've traveled. No evidence of anything besides a reused screenshot from someone else's account or frankly just made up. Understand that no one here takes you seriously.
41   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 2, 11:04am  

thanks for confirming! I knew we had to put a name on it! BSDS it is!

42   EBGuy   2021 Mar 2, 5:14pm  

theoakman says
Nigeria and India are trying to shut it down and it appears they are failing. The system really was an ingenious design.

I'm still trying to catch up (and am about 8 years behind the times with my questions). So every ISP could block port 8333, but then you'd just move the client over to a different port. Hmmmm...
43   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 5:35pm  

EBGuy says
theoakman says
Nigeria and India are trying to shut it down and it appears they are failing. The system really was an ingenious design.

I'm still trying to catch up (and am about 8 years behind the times with my questions). So every ISP could block port 8333, but then you'd just move the client over to a different port. Hmmmm...

All they have to do it make it illegal with hefty penalties or jail time. The funny part is they don't have to do that. They don't care about it and won't until some super rich guy gets burned on the pump. Then it will be consumer protection and holding or having evidence of BTC will get an immediate warrant to investigate all your electronics.

Because you trade BTC with USD, at least for most those in the states, your transaction is tracked by an exchange. Unless I trusted the person, I'm not exchanging flash drives, and either way to get what you're looking for, USD..... you have to convert it. BTC is not what is being sold and why you won't get an answer from the pumpers.

It being a "sneaky" way to transfer fake coins is of no value if you cannot convert it into usable fiat or currency. It's a video game. Not one BTC lover has been able to dispute that. I don't mind the guys that trade it, but know your risk. The game ends.
44   EBGuy   2021 Mar 2, 6:02pm  

WookieMan says
All they have to do it make it illegal with hefty penalties or jail time.

Interestingly, the US government has blacklisted a couple of Iranian bitcoin addresses. They can't block transactions to those bitcoin addresses, but the government can prosecute those individuals who transact with the blacklisted Iranian addresses (as seen on public bitcoin ledger).
45   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 6:20pm  

EBGuy says
WookieMan says
All they have to do it make it illegal with hefty penalties or jail time.

Interestingly, the US government has blacklisted a couple of Iranian bitcoin addresses. They can't block transactions to those bitcoin addresses, but the government can prosecute those individuals who transact with the blacklisted Iranian addresses (as seen on public bitcoin ledger).

And that will be threat enough for the average person. BTC is skyrocketing because the average person is getting fleeced by people with more money. It's a losing game. You have a guy investing $1.5B of OPM that smoked pot on a video podcast. He knows the game makers. He'll win. The average player won't. Play while you can. It's the wild west now and people made a shitload of money during that time as well.
46   Kepi   2021 Mar 2, 7:24pm  

Let's get to the bottom of this. Ronny Chieng to the rescue.

https://youtu.be/nRItzSX0aCM
47   WookieMan   2021 Mar 2, 8:01pm  

Kepi says
Let's get to the bottom of this. Ronny Chieng to the rescue.

https://youtu.be/nRItzSX0aCM

Spot on. No question is ever answered outside of those that understand trading patterns.
48   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 2, 8:34pm  

EBGuy says
They can't block transactions to those bitcoin addresses


correct. Bitcoin cant be banned and cant be hacked. They tried for over a decade. And now Tesla buys 1.5B USD worth of Bitcoin. Along with Paypal, Square, Microstrategies and hedge funds. Elected officials in the US love Bitcoin. They even created a crypto bank. To see the Bitcoin haters keep losing is entertaining but also a bit pathetic.
49   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Mar 2, 8:58pm  

WookieMan says
G36 says
Are you depressed?

Projecting much? You can't even mention ONE place you've traveled.


I dunno about that. For a few years before he took his life, a friend of mine was doing more and more frequent leisure travel, bringing along his partner and kids.

I reckoned that he was frustrated about stuff and all that travel was to run away from what bothered him. The problem with that, is you have to return. The travel is only a temporary escape.

I knew he was frustrated, and angry, but I didn't know he was depressed. Now he's "escaped" for permanent.

So that's another way of looking at frequent travel. So without knowing more, I would not mock someone who hasn't boasted about travel.
50   WookieMan   2021 Mar 3, 4:28am  

B.A.C.A.H. says
I reckoned that he was frustrated about stuff and all that travel was to run away from what bothered him.

I understand what you're saying here. For me though it's a hobby for the wife and I. The act of researching and finding value/deals is a super fun activity for us. At the end of the tunnel is a kick ass trip after we've found ways to get free money and enjoy it in the end. It's effort/time to ultimately print money to get to go to cool places. I hate IL politics and finance, but it's actually a pretty great place to live.

The reason I always ask G is because you could just make something up. Say you drove to Vegas from Socal. There's nothing. Never answers an actual question, ever. Having played around in penny stock forums, this is what they do. Pump that stock and don't answer logical and legit questions about what they're soooooooo invested in (not).

Put it this way, I wouldn't worry about me traveling being a way to cover up depression (I'm not). I'd be more worried about people betting on spreadsheets #BTC. Money isn't everything, but they're chasing something they're deficient in, clearly. And they're afraid and run around pumping it. I don't know a single person that doesn't like travel. Most everyone I know won't touch crypto and for good reason.
51   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 3, 8:17am  

B.A.C.A.H. says
WookieMan says
G36 says
Are you depressed?

Projecting much? You can't even mention ONE place you've traveled.


I dunno about that. For a few years before he took his life, a friend of mine was doing more and more frequent leisure travel, bringing along his partner and kids.

I reckoned that he was frustrated about stuff and all that travel was to run away from what bothered him. The problem with that, is you have to return. The travel is only a temporary escape.

I knew he was frustrated, and angry, but I didn't know he was depressed. Now he's "escaped" for permanent.

So that's another way of looking at frequent travel. So without knowing more, I would not mock someone who hasn't boasted about travel.


Great post by @B.A.C.A.H.
He is spot on in regards to @WookieMan
52   WookieMan   2021 Mar 3, 9:31am  

G36 says
He is spot on in regards to

Lol. He struck a nerve with you. Good on him. I love seeing the world, meeting people and not being desperate and poor. It's a good feeling.

I've heard bike riding sponsorships can be lucrative. Lance Armstrong can tell you all about it wearing his gay spandex.
53   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 3, 10:40am  

G36 says
B.A.C.A.H. says
WookieMan says
G36 says
Are you depressed?

Projecting much? You can't even mention ONE place you've traveled.


I dunno about that. For a few years before he took his life, a friend of mine was doing more and more frequent leisure travel, bringing along his partner and kids.

I reckoned that he was frustrated about stuff and all that travel was to run away from what bothered him. The problem with that, is you have to return. The travel is only a temporary escape.

I knew he was frustrated, and angry, but I didn't know he was depressed. Now he's "escaped" for permanent.

So that's another way of looking at frequent travel. So without knowing more, I would not mock someone who hasn't boasted about trav...


Really great post! People who are depressed and hate where they live always want to get away. Problem is, they have to go back to their hole because they cant afford to move!
Sorry @WookieMan
54   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 3, 10:44am  

"temporary escape and depression", right @WookieMan?
This post hopefully helps you assess your root issue (BSDS).

The post by BACAH was so spot on, I had to screenshot it.

55   WookieMan   2021 Mar 3, 10:45am  

G36 says
People who are depressed and hate where they live

Human feces and needles are problematic. We agree!

Cornfields, good neighbors and people. I'll take it. I like travel to meet people and experience something different than doing nothing. Doing nothing isn't fun. I don't know, maybe you should take a visit to the doc?
56   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 3, 10:48am  

BACAH basically described what the sunshine derangement syndrome is all about. A temporarily escape but you have to always come back to your misery/depression (IL)
5 star post by BACAH. Hopefully it helps @WookieMan
57   WookieMan   2021 Mar 3, 10:53am  

G36 says
A temporarily escape

Nah. When you travel enough it's life. It's normal. Living in piss, shit, tent encampments and needles sounds awful. Only being able to afford a bike for entertainment also is awful. I'm actually substantially better off. It feels good. You make me laugh on a daily basis. Thanks.
58   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 3, 11:13am  

you still didnt buy any satoshis? That was a great dip and you could have gotten some satoshis under 50k! A bargain! Sorry you missed out again @WookieMan
59   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Mar 3, 3:20pm  

WookieMan says
Nah. When you travel enough it's life. It's normal. Living in piss, shit, tent encampments and needles sounds awful. Only being able to afford a bike for entertainment also is awful. I'm actually substantially better off. It feels good. You make me laugh on a daily basis. Thanks.


There is more to the Bay Area than the Streets of San Francisco. And there is more to LA than Skid Row. Since you enjoy travel a lot, and have the moohlah for it, maybe you should come and see for yourself.

Just because G36 doesn't boast about travel doesn't mean s/he doesn't do it and enjoy it. It just means s/he doesn't boast about it. Same goes for me.

About the bike for entertainment, well, there's a lot of entertainment that's free. For example, enjoying the outdoors in the fabulous weather that G36 and I enjoy in our different parts of California.

My point was not to insinuate that you're traveling a lot because you're depressed. My point is that what pushes your button (like travel) is good for you, but maybe don't push G36's button. (Maybe travel does push G36's button, - who knows?).

I know the travel can be freaking expensive because I have done it a bit. A hobby of speculating on stuff like bitcoin online could be a whole lot less expensive. Different strokes for different folks. G36 is no less a person for not boasting about travel. You're not either for enjoying travel.

Every person is an individual with different strokes for different folks.
60   Bitcoin   2021 Mar 3, 4:15pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Just because G36 doesn't boast about travel doesn't mean s/he doesn't do it and enjoy it. It just means s/he doesn't boast about it. Same goes for me.


BACAH gets it! Awesome! love it! Spot on as usual!

@WookieMan, take it as a learning experience!

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