patrick.net

Why gold is going down, all this money poring causes inflation, doesn't it.

KgK one says

Why gold is going dow

Hasn't gold already made its move? It's been range bound in that $1100/oz to $1200/oz zone for years, since the financial crisis ended.

And unlike crypto, gold is somewhat established as a precious metal hedge against poor monetary policies. The current crypto thing looks more like Web 3.0, with lots of promises but no concrete plans for mass implementation, outside of perhaps buying Teslas on a hybrid payment plan.

Love how Bitcoin keeps slapping the Bitcoin haters - daily :)

Sry haters, Bitcoin aint going back to 20, 30k :)

G36 says

Bitcoin aint going back to 20, 30k :)

Those are still Fibonacci support levels, esp around $29K. Even gold had such a pullback during the 70s, before making its all time high in '78.

If you're bullish on the current run-up, then your "bounce" is at the 0.618 level or $40.7K

"If you're bullish on the current run-up, then your "bounce" is at the 0.618 level or $40.7K"

Why?

Zak says

Why?

This is kinda how momentum trading works.

If aggregations of interested parties join in on a trade (which looks like started this early winter), and see it's first true pullback, i.e the weekly bearish candle encompassing the bullish candle of the prior week, then the momentum traders are gearing up for a re-entry near a/o around that 0.618 Fibonacci level.

Until the market loses steam, this type of stuff goes on when ppl grow excited by the next hot thing.

@Zak

this must be your first Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoiners dont sell. Sure, there is new money that panic sells at losses (dumb money) but the majority of Bitcoin holders dont sell. They HODL because they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold. So why would the price dumb then?
Its miner pools. Mining is a business. They have to sell at some point and they have massive amounts of Bitcoin that they accumulate during bear markets and unload during a bull run. Its actually extremely healthy to prolong the cycle and it gives new money and traders an entry point. During the last Bull run in 2017 we saw 30-40% dips at least 3-4 times before the peak. Its normal for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will see at least 100k this cycle. You can bet the farm on it. Watch and see.

I think various governments will have to kill it because it competes with their monopoly on currency (or money if you think the dollar is money). That should be very easy for governments. Just point out that bitcoin is a major facilitator of payment for contraband (drugs, guns, etc). Soon we'll be hearing that the latest mass murder spree was carried out with guns purchased using bitcoin. At that point anyone with bitcoin will be assumed to be up to nefarious activities.

Bitcoin is no longer being used for the illegal markets. They have all moved on to using Monero as it is more anonymous. The reality is, governments are in a bind. They are woefully ignorant and arrogant of the fact that their printing press actually does devalue their currency. They've always mocked hard currencies like gold/silver and they did the same for bitcoin. They are in a bind because it's not possible to just shut off the network. You would have to shut off the internet worldwide for that to happen. You wouldn't want to shut your country out of the cash cow.

And, now that institutions and big billionaires own it, they can't do it. Politicians are easy to payoff. 10% for the big guy...and it was only like 10% of a million dollars. That's the cost of bribing our current president. Coinbase and Paypal can easily make it so that it's here to stay now.

"this must be your first Bitcoin bull market."

lol, yeah, i've clearly never seen a speculative mania before in all of history.. nope.. I'M the one not seeing the fundamentals here!!

Is it different this time? We can do this. G36 (Suzeanne) researched it!

"This is kinda how momentum trading works."

Ahh yes .. you want to sucker some greater fools.. gotcha..

theoakman says

And, now that institutions and big billionaires own it, they can't do it. Politicians are easy to payoff. 10% for the big guy...and it was only like 10% of a million dollars. That's the cost of bribing our current president. Coinbase and Paypal can easily make it so that it's here to stay now.

This makes sense to me. If Bitcoin, in fact, survives and thrives as a currency, what is to stop any and all cryptos from doing the same? This really gets into funny business if no one can control what happens.

One thing about tech...it is fantastic until in breaks.

GlocknLoad says

theoakman says

And, now that institutions and big billionaires own it, they can't do it. Politicians are easy to payoff. 10% for the big guy...and it was only like 10% of a million dollars. That's the cost of bribing our current president. Coinbase and Paypal can easily make it so that it's here to stay now.

This makes sense to me. If Bitcoin, in fact, survives and thrives as a currency, what is to stop any and all cryptos from doing the same? This really gets into funny business if no one can control what happens.

One thing about tech...it is fantastic until in breaks.

And that's a part of my point, the current bullishness or even bubble-like nature of cryptos, doesn't change the fact that if ppl want an alternative to let's say stockpiling dollars in treasuries/CDs or gold bars in some mint, then a type of crypto, whether it's a basket of them or some sort of blended ETF, may be in the cards long term.

Now, it doesn't mean that the entire current state of the cryptos will prevail but in the long term, some sort of digital 'gold' may emerge, after some carnage.

G36 says

they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold.

That or they have so much fucking money that throwing a couple billion into a crypto gambling bet is chump change. FOMO. Another possibility is that the executives of some of these companies are moving money offshore.

Or maybe it is Gold 2.0.

A big disadvantage over real gold is that after it is mined it has to be mined again and again...

With real gold you mine it and refine it once, and it is useful for the ages.

G36 says

they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold.

Paypal is not "buy and hold" - Paypal is collecting hefty fees from every transaction made by their customers trading Bitcoin.

Onvacation says

maybe it is Gold 2.0.

yep. you go it

Rin says

of digital 'gold' may emerge

exactly

Onvacation says

A big disadvantage over real gold is that after it is mined it has to be mined again and again...

Wait, what? I've never heard of that. Please explain.

For any transaction to happen with Bitcoin, some miners have to be paid enough commission to "mine" the transaction, ie scan through a zillion possible hashes of the transaction to find one that has the right number of 0's at the end.

Summary: transactions all have a cost with Bitcoin. I suppose that's true for gold as well.

Patrick says

Summary: transactions all have a cost with Bitcoin. I suppose that's true for gold as well.

Every transaction with anything has a cost since humans started transacting. Ultimately it's the value of what you're transacting in. Food and water is more valuable than BTC. Actually fresh water is the most valuable asset on the planet and that value grows daily as population grows. A place like Phoenix, AZ would cease to exist overnight (much of it) if water was cut off.

Yes the dollar is just a piece of paper. But that paper is backed by something that can blow other people up at the push of a button. There are assets, land, resources, etc. Metals and other physical assets can be used. BTC can't. Ever. It's recreating the wheel under the guise of "tech" and "currency" of the future. It's marketing...

BTC and crypto is nothing. It's a spreadsheet. It's a video game. All other fiat currency is backed by something. Crypto is not currency, it's a made up video game that rich people now manipulate and extract money from those that don't know it's a game. If you can play the game and win some cash, go ahead. No different than a slot pull. Ultimately the house wins though if you play long enough.

The thing about Bitcoin is that it has already survived more than 10 years and the network has consistently grown. Nigeria and India are trying to shut it down and it appears they are failing. The system really was an ingenious design. As far as another crypto making it obsolete, that would have happened already IMO. Light coin is a literal clone of bitcoin yet trades for less than 1% of the price.


Ethereum seems to have real staying power as well as their decentralized network keeps consistently growing.

I avoided investing out of fears of government reprisal and better networks making it obsolete. Institutional investment and ETFs holding it is the final piece of the puzzle that ultimately makes this legit. Fact remains, the 3rd world has been successfully using it to avoid the shenanigans of their governments. So far it's been a success.

theoakman says

Fact remains, the 3rd world has been successfully using it to avoid the shenanigans of their governments.

Yes, and that stealth quality made bitcoin an integral component in creating the ransomeware criminal industry.

GlocknLoad says

Onvacation says

A big disadvantage over real gold is that after it is mined it has to be mined again and again...

Wait, what? I've never heard of that. Please explain.

Gold is a store of value because a lot of capital and labor was used to mine and refine it. Once that is done you forever have a lump of shiny useful metal. It's a store of value for the capital and labor put into it.

When a bitcoin is "mined" it means a "miner" has been first to figure out the puzzle to update the ledger. All of the coins already "mined" are updated. If the "mining" stopped there would be no record of "ownership". No shiny lump of nothing. It takes a lot of capital and labor to "mine" a bitcoin but that effort is not stored in the "coins". It is consumed by the "miners". Bitcoin is just an elaborate scheme to make the fools think they have "digital gold".

theoakman says

I avoided investing out of fears of government reprisal and better networks making it obsolete. Institutional investment and ETFs holding it is the final piece of the puzzle that ultimately makes this legit. Fact remains, the 3rd world has been successfully using it to avoid the shenanigans of their governments. So far it's been a success.

Success is relative. BTC itself has done this before. It's been pumped and then dumped for 3 years starting in late 2017. Prior 6-7 years is was basically flat and no life changing growth. The market makers are getting in now after the last cycle in 2017/18. This one will result in the same thing as 2018 for crypto. It will crash. It's a game.

I'm sorry, but physical assets of any kind matter. There is no physical asset with BTC and it's traded in fiat, which is why it's doomed. And there was a creator. Likely a group of wealthy people. Or wealthy people took it over and will manipulate it to take your money. This is wealth extraction at its finest.

Key in life is to start a business and extract money from others instead of gambling on a payout from the owners. Be the owner. Be the casino. Crypto is a fraud. Enron paid employees a lot at one point too....

G36 says

Bitcoiners dont sell. Sure, there is new money that panic sells at losses (dumb money) but the majority of Bitcoin holders dont sell. They HODL because they all believe Bitcoin will go much, much higher. Reason why PayPal, Square, TESLA and Microstrategies buy and hold. So why would the price dumb then?
Its miner pools. Mining is a business. They have to sell at some point and they have massive amounts of Bitcoin that they accumulate during bear markets and unload during a bull run. Its actually extremely healthy to prolong the cycle and it gives new money and traders an entry point. During the last Bull run in 2017 we saw 30-40% dips at least 3-4 times before the peak. Its normal for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will see at least 100k this cycle. You can bet the farm on it. Watch and see.

WookieMan says

There is no physical asset with BTC and it's traded in fiat, which is why it's doomed. And there was a creator. Likely a group of wealthy people. Or wealthy people took it over and will manipulate it to take your money. This is wealth extraction at its finest.

Silly Wookie. Don't you know, "It's different this time"?.

G36 says

Rin says

of digital 'gold' may emerge

exactly

With the caveat that what's at present ... doesn't earmark the future.

In 1999, the internet was on the verge of becoming global w/ hi-speed access from nearly anywhere on the globe. Only a dozen years later, that was the case for much of the nations outside of toilets like central Africa.

Global Crossing, the highly capitalized 1 tier telecom conglomerate was suppose to lead that run with cables under all the ocean floors, etc back in '99. Well, thanks for accounting shenanigans and the dotcom bust, they went bankrupt by 2002.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/globalcrossing.asp

Still, the fall of the dotcom giant didn't end the proliferation of the internet. But who'd want to be stuck with Global Crossing shares come 2002?

Likewise, the current wave of cryptos may go belly up but come 2030, perhaps some digital media, held between a basket of nations and their servers' ledgers, may be a sort of international crypto.

2030 sounds good to me. I will be filthy rich by then (got in early with Bitcoin, ADA, ETH, etc)

G36 says

2030 sounds good to me. I will be filthy rich by then (got in early with Bitcoin, ADA, ETH, etc)

On $20k? Lol.

yeah, with your portfolio of 5k in stocks (LUV) you wont be rich, thats correct @wookieMan.

BTW, beautiful weather here in Socal. Sorry its another shitty day in IL (heard this is the case all year).
Sry bud!

G36 says

yeah, with your portfolio of 5k in stocks (LUV) you wont be rich, thats correct @wookieMan.

BTW, beautiful weather here in Socal. Sorry its another shitty day in IL (heard this is the case all year).
Sry bud!

I was in Phoenix spending my gains I got on NCLH and LUV. 30% and 37% ain't bad. Golfed Dove Valley, Rancho Manana, Legend Trail and Quintero. I don't do free activities because I have money.... Enjoy the bike though that cost less than my driver.

Next up is FL. I'm not insane, I like to get out to new places and meet new people. Change is good. You should think about traveling with all your crypto gains..... Let me know if you want to see the view. It was better than your place, I can promise that.

WookieMan says

I can promise that.

I know. You told us you only have 100 shares in LUV. You wont go far with that. No need to promise it.

BTW. beautiful weather here in Socal. Sorry you live in IL and have shitty weather all year. Are you depressed?

maybe we can call it the BSDS?

G36 says

Are you depressed?

Projecting much? You can't even mention ONE place you've traveled. No evidence of anything besides a reused screenshot from someone else's account or frankly just made up. Understand that no one here takes you seriously.

thanks for confirming! I knew we had to put a name on it! BSDS it is!

theoakman says

Nigeria and India are trying to shut it down and it appears they are failing. The system really was an ingenious design.

I'm still trying to catch up (and am about 8 years behind the times with my questions). So every ISP could block port 8333, but then you'd just move the client over to a different port. Hmmmm...

EBGuy says

theoakman says

Nigeria and India are trying to shut it down and it appears they are failing. The system really was an ingenious design.

I'm still trying to catch up (and am about 8 years behind the times with my questions). So every ISP could block port 8333, but then you'd just move the client over to a different port. Hmmmm...

All they have to do it make it illegal with hefty penalties or jail time. The funny part is they don't have to do that. They don't care about it and won't until some super rich guy gets burned on the pump. Then it will be consumer protection and holding or having evidence of BTC will get an immediate warrant to investigate all your electronics.

Because you trade BTC with USD, at least for most those in the states, your transaction is tracked by an exchange. Unless I trusted the person, I'm not exchanging flash drives, and either way to get what you're looking for, USD..... you have to convert it. BTC is not what is being sold and why you won't get an answer from the pumpers.

It being a "sneaky" way to transfer fake coins is of no value if you cannot convert it into usable fiat or currency. It's a video game. Not one BTC lover has been able to dispute that. I don't mind the guys that trade it, but know your risk. The game ends.

WookieMan says

All they have to do it make it illegal with hefty penalties or jail time.

Interestingly, the US government has blacklisted a couple of Iranian bitcoin addresses. They can't block transactions to those bitcoin addresses, but the government can prosecute those individuals who transact with the blacklisted Iranian addresses (as seen on public bitcoin ledger).

EBGuy says

WookieMan says

All they have to do it make it illegal with hefty penalties or jail time.

Interestingly, the US government has blacklisted a couple of Iranian bitcoin addresses. They can't block transactions to those bitcoin addresses, but the government can prosecute those individuals who transact with the blacklisted Iranian addresses (as seen on public bitcoin ledger).

And that will be threat enough for the average person. BTC is skyrocketing because the average person is getting fleeced by people with more money. It's a losing game. You have a guy investing $1.5B of OPM that smoked pot on a video podcast. He knows the game makers. He'll win. The average player won't. Play while you can. It's the wild west now and people made a shitload of money during that time as well.

Let's get to the bottom of this. Ronny Chieng to the rescue.

https://youtu.be/nRItzSX0aCM

Kepi says

Let's get to the bottom of this. Ronny Chieng to the rescue.

https://youtu.be/nRItzSX0aCM

Spot on. No question is ever answered outside of those that understand trading patterns.