patrick.net

Rental market is down as much as 30% in SF from pre corona highs.

What about the real estate market in SF?

The Bay Area suburbs are absolutely in dire with high demand, low inventory, and low interest rates.

Do you mean to buy an apartment and rent it out on AirBNB?

I think San Francisco is still sliding downward fast. Prices are nowhere near as low as they should be.

But if you do this, consider VRBO instead. They are far less politically oppressive than AirBNB.

https://www.vrbo.com/

Patrick says

Do you mean to buy an apartment and rent it out on AirBNB?

I think San Francisco is still sliding downward fast. Prices are nowhere near as low as they should be.

But if you do this, consider VRBO instead. They are far less politically oppressive than AirBNB.

https://www.vrbo.com/

Is there a marketplace to look for buying "vacation" property in San Francisco?
Would be interesting to know if the price slid significantly to cause buying opportunity.
I have no experience in "vacation rentals".

I am sure not every apartment can be made into vacation rentals due to regulations.

No way! California real estate is not even net positive. Plus we have people leaving and terrible regulations. RV ratio good metric to look at. Plus we're in the everything bubble wait until stuff's on sale.

Here ya go he explains it well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0EEheBAVQ

You're right that California real estate is a loser if you intend to rent out by the year, but the high weekly rates for places like VRBO are enough to swing it the other way if you can keep your place full more than half the time.

mich says

No way! California real estate is not even net positive. Plus we have people leaving and terrible regulations. RV ratio good metric to look at. Plus we're in the everything bubble wait until stuff's on sale.

Here ya go he explains it well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0EEheBAVQ

Yes, making money on rent when you have to buy for high prices is likely not profitable, unless you do vacation rentals as Patrick mentioned, but I've heard the same thing about house prices in CA forever, yet they have been keeping climbing. Now, if a city turns fully deranged leftoid like SF, you will see an exodus and dropping prices but they are still HIGH. The nicer parts of CA without crime and hobos are being bid up and that will not change unless there's more inventory which there won't be for many reasons, prop 13 being one of them. It's largely irrelevant so far that people are leaving CA as those are 80% renters who can't afford to buy a house anyways, the further away from SF the more areas have been bid up. I'd leave some safety space and would not buy in the immediate bay area, but so far people in the suburbs are doing well. Another reason are insane zoning laws and insanely high costs for permits, construction and delays in obtaining permits. Building homes in CA is simply not an easy venture so that even experienced builders have been shy. That's why you see shit shacks and track houses bid up. I don't see house prices going down at all for now, rather the opposite, if you exclude SF, and even there renting makes more sense than buying to live or to rent.

While I wouldn't buy for an investment, I'd say that on avg. prices will go up with inflation plus some, at the minimum 5% on avg per year over the next 10 years, so buying to live is fine if you can afford it, but avoid metropolitan areas and opt for suburbs or even better rural areas. The flight from the cities towards rural areas will continue.

Another factor is the huge tech profits from the Wuhan Virus conspiracy. (And it was a conspiracy used against democracy, whether or not the virus itself is real.)

So a lot of tech companies suddenly got a lot richer at the expense of mom and pop operations, so you might think that would cause Bay Area real estate to rise. But on the other hand, a lot of those same companies are getting out of the Bay Area themselves.

Schwab, for example, is now moving its headquarters to Texas after years of moving the rank and file from SF to Arizona and Colorado (I was there when they were doing that).

I think this will continue with other tech companies as well.

Patrick says

Another factor is the huge tech profits from the Wuhan Virus conspiracy. (And it was a conspiracy used against democracy, whether or not the virus itself is real.)

So a lot of tech companies suddenly got a lot richer at the expense of mom and pop operations, so you might think that would cause Bay Area real estate to rise. But on the other hand, a lot of those same companies are getting out of the Bay Area themselves.

Schwab, for example, is now moving its headquarters to Texas after years of moving the rank and file from SF to Arizona and Colorado (I was there when they were doing that).

I think this will continue with other tech companies as well.

I agree, but ironically this should raise the standard of living in the bay area even if it would make prices less affordable and thus slow the rise. The endless commutes and overcrowded cities may be a thing of the past, definitely devastating for commercial real estate, but much better for livability and charm.There's a lot of generational as well as new found tech wealth in the bay area, and if SF leftoid corrupt politicians and SJWs hadn't done the worst job ever in promoting city life who knows where the prices would stand now. It's tough to say how much more house prices in SF will fall and nobody wants to catch a falling knife, but I see some eventually getting sold after enough discount, so currently there's still demand, just not at $1200 sqft, but certainly at $600/sqft.

I mean SF has like 80 people with Covid in the hospital now - a city with nearly 1 million people! - and around 50 "cases" per day, and they're still in the "red tier" while surrounding counties have already opened up indoors again! WTF!

Thanks all for info!

I heard that there is minimum day requirement for vacation rental .
I heard someone say like month minimum.

This will shut down vacation rentals market., Who vacations for month..?
I smell sabotage by hotel lobby.

If you seek rental income, buy funds.
Some own storage units and other very profitable rental property.

I have a friend who has a building in Hayward.
He has tenants who don’t pay rent, but he can’t evict them.
The building actually is on top of the Hayward Fault; someday the building will be torn in two pieces.

I would like to live in San Francisco for a few weeks, it’s nice as cities go.

clambo says

Some own storage units

Yeah, I've heard it described as "same as rental appts but without headaches like clogged toilets and if the tenant doesn't pay you get to sell all the stuff stored there".

According to the CA Dept. of Finance, the 10 county SF Bay Area (yes, I'm including Santa Cruz county) decreased in population last year, and this count only includes the first half of the pandemic (through July 1, 2020). I imagine this fiscal year will be a blood bath as well.
Short term rentals are (essentially) illegal in Ess Eff unless you live in the unit.

I would assume that rent vs buy for most of CA favors renting, hence don't buy as an investment property for slum-lording purposes (unless you can mark it as exclusive airbnb vacation rental and get a decent number of days rented out). If it's your primary home, then buying is ok.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-SF-Bay-Area-exodus-migration-USPS-data-15983559.php

"
Bay Area's migration is real, but Postal Service data shows California exodus isn't. ... Only 3.7% of the households and businesses that filed address changes in five Bay Area counties from March to November 2020 left California, a total of 4,264 move outs, according to the data.13 hours ago
"

mell says

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-SF-Bay-Area-exodus-migration-USPS-data-15983559.php

"
Bay Area's migration is real, but Postal Service data shows California exodus isn't. ... Only 3.7% of the households and businesses that filed address changes in five Bay Area counties from March to November 2020 left California, a total of 4,264 move outs, according to the data.13 hours ago
"

Uhaul. Do different searches. It's what I use to judge cities people in IL are moving to. I then avoid them. I personally think an exodus of people from an area is a good thing. Reshape the community after all the idiots are gone.

We were close to moving to Denver or north of San Diego. Both would have cost us ~30% more annually and income would have been the same, potentially lower. I feel like certain areas get popular and the followers and idiots just start flocking there. Yeah.... count me out. Sometimes it's easier to rehab a house than build a cheap new one.

WookieMan says

I personally think an exodus of people from an area is a good thing. Reshape the community after all the idiots are gone.

Yes, provided that it is the idiots that are leaving. If it is the productive people who are leaving, you get a town full of welfare bums and the local government bum support mechanisms. Mechanisms like schools that are workfare for ethnic diversity who resist change that would be better for students but more work for themselves. Plus local welfare agencies that have no interest in getting people off of welfare roles.

City councils love to ban Airbnb and vrbo and vacation rentals. They did it to several towns in MT. My friends from OC lost out on rental income on condos they bought in Whitefish.

clambo says

If you seek rental income, buy funds.
Some own storage units and other very profitable rental property.

I have a friend who has a building in Hayward.
He has tenants who don’t pay rent, but he can’t evict them.
The building actually is on top of the Hayward Fault; someday the building will be torn in two pieces.

I would like to live in San Francisco for a few weeks, it’s nice as cities go.

There you go regulations and guess who gets first dips if he loses the property? Newsom yup just signed in recently. SB 1079 right poor people get first dips but we know how that goes.

mell says

mich says

No way! California real estate is not even net positive. Plus we have people leaving and terrible regulations. RV ratio good metric to look at. Plus we're in the everything bubble wait until stuff's on sale.

Here ya go he explains it well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0EEheBAVQ

Yes, making money on rent when you have to buy for high prices is likely not profitable, unless you do vacation rentals as Patrick mentioned, but I've heard the same thing about house prices in CA forever, yet they have been keeping climbing. Now, if a city turns fully deranged leftoid like SF, you will see an exodus and dropping prices but they are still HIGH. The nicer parts of CA without crime and hobos are being bid up and that will not change unless there's more inventory which there won't be for many reas...

I'm here I think it's better to rent and will not purchase anything here. Rather go where I'm treated best. Plus the regulations are getting out of hand like SB 1079.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I personally think an exodus of people from an area is a good thing. Reshape the community after all the idiots are gone.

Yes, provided that it is the idiots that are leaving. If it is the productive people who are leaving, you get a town full of welfare bums and the local government bum support mechanisms. Mechanisms like schools that are workfare for ethnic diversity who resist change that would be better for students but more work for themselves. Plus local welfare agencies that have no interest in getting people off of welfare roles.

Also not if the city doesn't get its act together, likely those staying are the bums. CA often is beautiful outside of SF, and even SF used to be a vibrant, highly sought after tourist destination. Well anyways before the leftoids ruined it. It wo take a while to dig out of that shithole.