patrick.net

Ammo shortage. very disturbing. 50 rounds of 9MM 38 dollars.....100 rounds (reloads) of 5.56, $75!
Some gun stores wont even sell the ammo because they reserve the little inventory they have for customers who buy guns.

getting contractors (concrete etc) is a real pain. Contractors pick and choose jobs and prices have gone nuts. one neighbor got really upset at me because I referred a contractor to him that did great work for me and had a very competitive price. I thought he would give my neighbor the same deal. He tried to rip him off like you wouldnt believe it. Now I am thinking he just got me a deal to get his foot into the neighborhood.

peopleunited says

Cars

A friend of mine posted a story on Car Museum on Facebook about dealers being short of new cars because they couldn't get a chip that regulated gas mileage. My comment to it was: serves them right for making appliances.

mell says

prepare for shortages everywhere. This looks like severe stagflation at the minimum

1974

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36218381/car-models-affected-chip-shortage/

let’s not forget the Peugeot 308. Sure, it’s not available in the U.S., but Stellantis said this week that instead of the digital speedometers the car was going to have, it will now be produced with analog dials as a way to save chips to use in more popular models.

Almost every automaker has been affected and forced to adjust production schedule in major ways. The consulting firm AlixPartners, cited by the Washington Post, estimated that the global auto industry will make somewhere between 1.5 million and five million fewer vehicles this year than originally expected. Volkswagen alone is down 100,000 vehicles for 2021, with the situation expected to worsen in the second quarter, and doesn't expect to be able to make up the difference this year.

On April 28 when announcing quarterly results, Ford projected it will produce 1.1 million fewer vehicles than planned this year—far beyond previous projections of up to 40,000 fewer vehicles built.

https://fortune.com/2021/04/27/lumber-prices-are-up-232-and-it-could-spiral-out-of-control-in-the-next-few-months/

Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

My wife wanted me to do some shiplap on certain walls. I like doing mini projects like this myself. I had to laugh at the insane lumber prices at Home Depot. For some this isnt funny. commodity prices are out of control. At this point, nobody can dispute the fact the high inflation is here. Stocks, RE and Crypto will continue to trend higher.

Bitcoin says

Lumber prices are up 232%

Home Depot (HD) is doing well lately and I have to wonder if that's partly because they are capturing a lot of the increase in lumber prices.

Patrick says

Bitcoin says

Lumber prices are up 232%

Home Depot (HD) is doing well lately and I have to wonder if that's partly because they are capturing a lot of the increase in lumber prices.

many people are still working from home and have DIY projects. Every time I go to HD, its packed.

Patrick says

Home Depot (HD) is doing well lately and I have to wonder if that's partly because they are capturing a lot of the increase in lumber prices.

It's the lumber mills that are really raking it in right now. Like Weyerhauser.

Couple things..
1) Immigration is restricted in conjunction with the minimum wage to screw the middle class. They can keep the factory jobs just across the border in Tijuana, in the maquiladoras, and pay $2/hr . But you can't have that factory worker coming across the border and helping a middle class guy out for $3/hr, because you might upset Toyota or Ford or whatever business is exploiting the imaginary line. Also, all the barista jobs for expensively but poorly educated college grads would be finito. Then those liberal tears might not flow so freely for the cause du jour.

2) I bought November puts on WOOD. Not anything overboard, but a $5k bet that this is a hustle/scam that's going to shake out as summertime orders finish in July, and the commodities markets have to start taking deliveries on their speculative orders, or offload and crash the price. WOOD is just the ETF of various timber/forestry.

zzyzzx says

It's the lumber mills that are really raking it in right now. Like Weyerhauser.

Weyerhauser looks good over the last year, and I almost bought some, but then I looked at the very long range view:



Same price as literally 30 years ago! Pays an ok dividend of 1.7%, but I want more bang for my buck.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/rental-companies-buy-up-used-cars-as-microchip-crisis-gets-worse

“We’re seeing some eye-popping numbers. We’re seeing average rates in Florida of $100 a day, $200 a day in Hawaii and $600 a day in Puerto Rico,” Weinberg said. “We think it will get worse in the next couple of weeks. Vehicle travel is up and vehicle inventory is down.”

Zak says

puts on WOOD. Not anything overboard,

You so punny!

zzyzzx says

vehicle inventory is down.”

Way down. Got a higher up with a manufacturer I know (no doxxing here). This stimulus has been a huge boon to auto manufacturers. I didn't notice, but in IL when you get basic plates for the car, newer/used cars get a new sequence of numbers/letters at the start of the plate.

We just got a new car. There's a fuck ton of new cars on the road here (could be used of course). CS is the new plate start if that makes sense. Seeing a shit ton of CS plates when I'm looking. I'd say maybe 1-2 of 10 cars I see start with CS plates. Might also be the reason for higher oil prices. Low fuel costs might have people buying bigger, less fuel efficient cars due to the stimulus.

Money grows on government trees now I guess...

Chip supplies have been a bit dicey.

WookieMan says

Money grows on government trees now I guess...

I watched Obama actually say that when he was in CA running for the first time.

Chip shortage could last a couple of years:
https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/33027-intel-ceo-says-chip-shortage-will-persist-for-couple-of-years

Bitcoin says

Every time I go to HD, its packed

That's been the case for decades now.

Auto inventories that are normally a 90 days supply down to around 24-45 days supply.

People need to fix their car instead of getting a new one.

Gasoline:
https://nypost.com/2021/05/11/southeast-coast-suffers-gas-shortage-amid-pipeline-shutdown/

The American Automobile Association (AAA) said that the biggest problem was actually panic buyers draining supplies.

“People hear something and panic,” Tiffany Wright, spokeswoman for AAA Carolinas, told the Citizen Times, insisting supplies were otherwise normal.

Colonial said Monday it hopes to get most of its operations back online by the weekend, but that’s not soon enough to avoid shortages and price hikes as supply has already started to dwindle.

About 7.6 percent of gas stations in Virginia were out of fuel by early Tuesday, according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick DeHaan’s estimates. He added that nearly 5 percent of gas stations in North Carolina, 3.3 percent in Georgia as well as 2.4 percent in Florida are also reporting that they’ve sold out of fuel.

Panic buying appears to have exacerbated the limited supply. DeHaan said that across Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, demand for gasoline rose more than 40 percent.

after my bad dream the other night, I typed this into the URL bar of my chrome browser:

"How much lumber in a typical coast redwood tree?". The answer: 6500 board feet. Sounds about right, I suppose.

There's fabulous redwood trees all over the urban bay area. In municipal parks, in school yards, the city-owned strips between the sidewalks and streets. There's also huge redwood trees on private property, including even the small 60x100 parcels for sh*tbox tract homes. Many of these developments are decades old now. The trees are massive. You don't need to go to Muir Woods with all the tourists, to "see the redwoods"

The night before I typed the query, this was my bad dream:

I was walking through a neighborhood in West SJ where I've seen many huge redwood trees. As I was walking past a middle school site that had a long row of such trees along the property, a commercial timber company was cutting them all down. A guy in a hardhat at the site told me that due to declining enrollment the district needed to sell the lumber to avoid cost reduction measures.

Reports that Chik-Fil-A is out of condiments.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/chick-fil-a-is-experiencing-a-major-shortage-of-this-staple/ar-BB1gCovm

B.A.C.A.H. says

As I was walking past a middle school site that had a long row of such trees along the property, a commercial timber company was cutting them all down.

I've also seen workmen chipping trees that fell over in high winds around here. Tragic loss of wood there, and wouldn't they want the money from it?

Maybe it's just too inconvenient to mill and toast urban lumber from fallen trees. Or maybe the price of wood will make it worthwhile now.

Obligatory:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-car-shoppers-paying-5-145328080.html

Some U.S. car shoppers are paying $5,000 over a vehicle's retail price - Cox Automotive

May 12 (Reuters) - Many U.S. consumers are willing to pay $5,000 more than the sticker price of a new vehicle, as a global semiconductor chip shortage has led to a supply crunch at a time when demand for cars is soaring, a poll by research firm Cox Automotive found.

The chip shortage has forced car manufacturers to idle factories and cut production, which has created a scarcity for new vehicles in the market, sending prices of both new and used vehicles surging.

"More than 40% of car shoppers are willing to pay above manufacturer suggested retail price right now, and those willing to pay over MSRP are willing to accept a 12% premium," Cox Automotive said on Wednesday.

While vehicle inventory is tight, access to auto loans has become more available for shoppers, further boosting demand, the research firm said.

Maryland is fortunate to have an outstanding Port of Baltimore already receiving product by water transportation. Working with the Port Administration and our petroleum distributors, we are ready to assist in providing critical gas supplies that keep our economy moving forward."

According to spokesperson with AAA Mid-Atlantic, hardest hit areas so far include Central Virginia and places near the North Carolina border. The vast majority of gas stations in Baltimore area appeared to have gas Tuesday night.

Washington DC 8% stations no gasoline. Baltimore 7% stations no gasoline.

Belgian beer. The selection has become miserably poor. Booze shops are now filled with aisles and aisles of wine for Karen's instead.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a36430248/shoppers-pay-over-msrp-cars/

40% of Car Shoppers Willing to Pay $5000 over MSRP for a New Car

At the end of April, there were less than 2 million new vehicles on dealership lots in the U.S., which was 42 percent lower than April 2020. Cox said it believes supply will continue to be low until at least the end of the year.

zzyzzx says

40% of Car Shoppers Willing to Pay $5000 over MSRP for a New Car

#fuckingmorons

Jarlsberg cheese has been missing from Trader Joe's for a while now.

Not that it's such great cheese, just that they are always out for some reason. They say supply chain problems.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYxI2rXqTnk

Mentioned dealers charging $20,000 over MSRP for some vehicles.

zzyzzx says

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYxI2rXqTnk

Mentioned dealers charging $20,000 over MSRP for some vehicles.

There are no cars. I don't know about CA or the East coast, but all our smaller dealerships have almost empty lots. Bigger lots are hard to tell and I don't go East too often. My Toyota guy is in Hawaii right now, but want to pick his brain about WTF is up.

I personally think the manufacturers didn't think there would be demand and cut back on production. They didn't realize our government would give everyone (well families) a hefty down payment on top of whatever they were going to spend. IL has a numbering/lettering system for non-vanity plates and the amount of obvious new cars is staggering. We got a steal on our recent purchase because of my guy, but I wouldn't be buying a car right now, that's for sure.

Broke my old bicycle, can't buy a decent new one for last 6 months.

LAND SHORTAGE - my friends are looking for a place in rural TX - few people are selling, and prices have skyrocketed.

Rb6d says

Broke my old bicycle, can't buy a decent new one for last 6 months.

How broken?

Booger says

How broken?

Frame warped.

WookieMan says

There are no cars.

It's the same with rental cars, too. How short-sighted to get rid of their cars when it was clear this would be a temporary situation.

"At the pandemic’s outset, rental car companies sold off their fleets to right-size for the cratering demand."

NDrLoR says

WookieMan says

There are no cars.

It's the same with rental cars, too. How short-sighted to get rid of their cars when it was clear this would be a temporary situation.

"At the pandemic’s outset, rental car companies sold off their fleets to right-size for the cratering demand."

MBAs are sooooo smart....

want to go with some buddies to a fishing trip in Alaska....apparently there are no rental car's available. Lol. Thinking of buying a car, hopefully not wreck it and sell it at the end of our trip....