patrick.net

Elena has been concerned as of late about mainland China forcefully retaking Taiwan. Before we get into the military challenges of such an action, let us look at the geopolitical considerations. The US and Chinese economies are intertwined to a great extent. If one party pulled away, their economy would collapse. The world economy would follow. Let us look at the special case of Taiwan and mainland China. Taiwan provides the mainland with a lot of FDI-foreign direct investment. When a Chinese company has a desperate need for skilled workers, the first place that they look is Taiwan. There is a huge volume of trade between the mainland and Taiwan. A military action would destroy all this economic activity.
Now let us look at an actual military operation where the Chinese military attempts to invade Taiwan. Ask the Nazis and the US Navy; it is very hard to invade an island. Nazi Germany could not even mount an invasion to overpower the UK. The US Navy struggled with all its island invasions in World War II. To invade an island, you need absolute air and naval superiority. Mainland China has an impressive military with large numbers. They would face US forces, Taiwan forces, and possible Japanese forces. They would not have absolute control of the skies and the sea. The Chinese military could not afford to inflict too much damage on Taiwan for the economic reasons cited above. They would also be sensitive to world public opinion.
In the end of the day, their only route to reclaiming what they see is rightfully theirs is "winning through intimidation." They will have to use psychology to intimate all opponents. The Japanese did this brilliantly in Singapore at the start of World War II.