patrick.net

CCP agents are always funny.
You don't grow your "debt" multiple times in decade for nothing.

https://twitter.com/ruima/status/1420060835313971200
China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

Very few understand this.
(Which is bizarre, since it's all the gov't talks about.)

farmer2021 says

China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

There is no doubt that chinese are smart but they also have big flaws especially their ruling class.
Spending vast majority of sums on production on backs of impoverished masses toiling in inhuman conditions will let to big failure.
They have ruined their environment and built mountain of debt for this foolhardy exercise.

China will fail like it always did in past. The biggest flaw in Chinese is extreme conformity to authority... But when it eventually bursts it is like a volcano.
CCP is always afraid of it, But it has set the course for that event to happen. Peasants will eventually come for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rebellions_in_China

Those factories lose viability as they rust and the knowledge of how to run them is lost.

Patrick says

Those factories lose viability as they rust and the knowledge of how to run them is lost.

Some would be lost even without China to technology improvement or market change.
Also China has peaked and lot of rust belts(10x more than US) will be created there soon.. probably many already. The environment cleanup of this will bankrupt china.
CCP is just trying to save skin from peasants by creating useless manufacturing... See the videos I posed on "china poor construction" thread. It is already boxed by economic principles and have no way to run for long.
https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-share-of-global-manufacturing-output/

@HunterTits
China is fraud economy. They think "poor disposable stuff" and rebuilding it again and again is economic growth.
Unfortunately corrupts corporates like walmart etc. bought into this notion as it is good for retail.
Strange part is that so called "green economy" guys couldn't muster anything against this extremely polluting exercise.

This article explains it well:
https://chinaeconomicreview.com/china-housing-shoddy-building-quality-energy-incentives-gdp/
To Qiao Runling, deputy director at China’s top planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, the short lifespan doesn’t simply indicate how long the housing is livable in but how long developers wait to tear down one project in order to raise a more expensive one

“Chinese like to demolish buildings just so they can build new ones,” Qiao said, speaking at a real estate investment forum in Shanghai last week.
he buildings aren’t torn down because they’re dangerous but rather because local officials want to drive the economy with new construction projects. It’s “political willingness” that often cuts short the life of many otherwise healthy buildings, Qiao said, “The local government wants to stimulate GDP growth and they choose the crudest way to do this: Demolition then rebuilding.”

The practice isn’t just a waste of valuable real estate, it’s a major polluter and consumer of energy. The energy needed to fuel China’s construction industry accounts for about one-third of the country’s total energy consumption, Qiao said. Where energy consumption is high, so is pollution. The unceasing cycle of building and demolition adds to China’s already dire environmental conditions. On top of that, China has little capacity to reuse construction waste, unlike countries such as Japan. Some reports say that construction refuse has literally encircled cities like Hangzhou.

HunterTits says

It takes DECADES to build up a decent blue water navy.

I'm afraid it will also take decades for the US to recover its lost manufacturing ability, and that if and only if there is a determined push to bring back manufacturing here, as Trump advocates.

Now that the oligarchy has subverted democracy to get Trump out of office, I don't see that happening any time soon.

In the meantime, China has great power over us to cut off supplies of finished goods and parts.

Patrick says

HunterTits says

It takes DECADES to build up a decent blue water navy.

I'm afraid it will also take decades for the US to recover its lost manufacturing ability, and that if and only if there is a determined push to bring back manufacturing here, as Trump advocates.

Now that the oligarchy has subverted democracy to get Trump out of office, I don't see that happening any time soon.

In the meantime, China has great power over us to cut off supplies of finished goods and parts.

I don't agree. Most of what we import from China we don't really need.
It was just greed of walmart types to push on us for their retail dollars.
If it had any market power, They would be raising prices crazy not squeezing their workers even when struggling to find few and high attrition.
(During COVID time they made killing sending sanitizing products, But US quickly ramped up... thats the time they had market power for small time window)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183399/walmarts-net-sales-worldwide-since-2006/

farmer2021 says

I don't agree. Most of what we import from China we don't really need.

Remember during the beginning of the pandemic when there were shortages of antibiotics made only in China, and the US couldn't make them because the raw materials also come only from China?

I remember that.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

I don't agree. Most of what we import from China we don't really need.

Remember during the beginning of the pandemic when there were shortages of antibiotics made only in China, and the US couldn't make them because the raw materials also come only from China?

I remember that.

This does happen in trading partners. It is exception not rule.
China's 5G ambitions are also biting dust due to lack of semiconductors.(They are spending like trillion $ to gain self sufficiency).

US can produce antibiotics too. The issue is not "trade" but loyalty of US govt.. If US govt folks have made treason their main business, Nothing can work.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02884-3
Why big pharma has abandoned antibiotics
A lack of financial incentive has meant large pharmaceutical companies have left the market

farmer2021 says

US can produce antibiotics too.

The question is how quickly and at what cost.

I think it would take years to recover US antibiotic manufacturing ability.

Take the PRC off of SWIFT.

Terms of restoration of interbank payment functionality:

Everyone in the PRC guaranteed weapons and a 20 year supply of ammo, even if they have to fire 10 rounds a minute, three shifts a day.

Multiparty elections.

Unions.

Otherwise, no buy slave-made shit.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

US can produce antibiotics too.

The question is how quickly and at what cost.

I think it would take years to recover US antibiotic manufacturing ability.

Two solutions:
1) subsidy
2) Increase price.
... otherwise import. It is just not profitable.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/oneill-amr-3
We Need Antibiotics. They’re Not Profitable To Make. Who Pays?

SumatraBosch says

Take the PRC off of SWIFT.

So this means to isolate their banking system, right?

Yes.

Let them pay their bills with rocks and Ramen.

Technically that should be "rocks and lo-mein".

"Ramen" is just the bad Japanese pronunciation of the Chinese word lo-mein.

But then it wouldn't alliterate. Unless you're Japanese.

Look at hard to fake parameters of economy to estimate How much is China lying on size of economy.

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/ChenEtAl_web.pdf
A Forensic Examination of China’s National Accounts

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-quietly-sets-new-buy-chinese-targets-state-companies-us-sources-2021-08-02/

China quietly sets new 'buy Chinese' targets for state companies

WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - China's government quietly issued new procurement guidelines in May that require up to 100% local content on hundreds of items including X-ray machines and magnetic resonance imaging equipment, erecting fresh barriers for foreign suppliers, three U.S.-based sources told Reuters.

Patrick says

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-quietly-sets-new-buy-chinese-targets-state-companies-us-sources-2021-08-02/

China quietly sets new 'buy Chinese' targets for state companies

WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - China's government quietly issued new procurement guidelines in May that require up to 100% local content on hundreds of items including X-ray machines and magnetic resonance imaging equipment, erecting fresh barriers for foreign suppliers, three U.S.-based sources told Reuters.

Biden will pretend nothing happened.

Patrick says

The Chinese are pretty smart. That's why they got all the factories. That's what gives them power over America now.

That and all the politicians they own.

Patrick says

But then it wouldn't alliterate. Unless you're Japanese.

That's racist!