patrick.net

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/maple-leave-tuesday-january-7-2025

The trouble for capital-S Science is that the climate scientists who worship the current political climate model have long relied on their models to forecast planetary doom unless vastly expensive measures using your tax dollars and curtailing your freedom are undertaken immediately and without argument. ...

The main reason the climate models are wrong is that they don’t account for the higher atmospheric water vapor levels resulting from the historic Hunga Tonga undersea eruption, or the high solar activity producing historic aurora all over the planet’s night skies (but apparently the “experts” think all that extra energy has no effect whatsoever on the climate).

The truth is that, if they want to vacation in Aspen this year, climate model scientists must remain politically muzzled. They may only put variables into their models related to human activity. No permission structure allows them to consider the real causes of what the article described as “far weirder weather” than the models predicted.

Under the rule limiting what variables are allowed to go into them, the climate models are condemned to failure.

The_Deplorable says

Couple things, water vapor absorbance across the far IR spectrum swamps the CO2 windows (first image). But CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR, just far less than water vapor. Earth’s far IR emission range is a rounded, Gaussian-type plot (second image), emitting up to and beyond 15 um, the beginning of CO2’s main absorption range. IR at 15 um is at lower intensity than the 10 um peak, but still present.

goofus says

"CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR..."

No. Earth is not emitting radiation in the far IR range which is -80°F and lower! Given
that the Earth Temperature is about 59°F then Earth is radiating unimpeded into space
at 10 microns.
PROOF: During the Paleozoic, Earth experienced an Ice Age for 40 million years at a
CO2 level of 4,200 ppm. And that high amount of CO2 did not prevent the Ice Age from
happening. Therefore CO2 is not warming anything.

The_Deplorable says

goofus says

"CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR..."

No. Earth is not emitting radiation in the far IR range which is -80°F and lower! Given
that the Earth Temperature is about 59°F then Earth is radiating unimpeded into space
at 10 microns.

Look at the plot above. While earth-emitted IR peaks at 10 um for 303K (30C), it has tails on both sides. Earth radiates at a variety of far IR wavelengths depending on latitude, albedo, etc. 59F may be the planetary average but a whole range of wavelengths (and radiating temps) are covered to reach that average. IR at 15 um is not -80F. Can calculate at home; driving now.

I’m sure not wedded to the idea of CO2 as driver for climate change. Geologic record is enough to realize the fallacy. That and realizing Malenkovich cycles explain the last million years of ice age cycles far better than greenhouse gases. But “our side” should take more care with the claims.

The_Deplorable says

goofus says

"CO2 absorbance IS relevant to the range of earth-emitting far IR..."

No. Earth is not emitting radiation in the far IR range which is -80°F and lower!

You’re right, whoops. Plugging 15 um in for wavelength gives 193K or -80C. Temp drops quickly with this equation..


Physics.stackexchange.com