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Will Russia invade Ukraine?


               
2022 Feb 18, 12:20pm   21,250 views  371 comments

by Bd6r   follow (2)  

Poll

Yes
No
Other answer

My take: Yes

see https://nitter.pussthecat.org/newkc14?source=patrick.net

Evacuation of civilians from Doneck, Gleiwitz-style explosions in Doneck, and a lot of shelling along border.

Less probable is that they just want to increase tensions to get something out of the West (higher oil/gas prices, promises about non-expansion of NATO, etc).

If they do invade, ZH and a lot of skeptics owe Bidet & Co an apology of sorts. Everything goes to crap if invasion happens, as in economy of the world, residual civil liberties, etc, and one can blame Russians for inflation, loss of life quality, etc, instead of real culprit Bidet.

If I'd be conspiratorial, I'd say that Bidet agents in Russia will push for Russian invasion, but on other hand current CIA and military here can only shout pronouns at enemies as seen from Afghanistan debacle.

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1   Blue   @   2022 Feb 18, 12:22pm  

No
2   Eric_Holder   @   2022 Feb 18, 12:28pm  

It has already invaded in 2014.
3   mell   @   2022 Feb 18, 12:35pm  

No. But Donbass people may be resettled/reshuffled. I don't consider this an invasion since donbass is majority pro Russia. It's a bit Iike a US state being close to secession.
4   Eric_Holder   @   2022 Feb 18, 1:23pm  

Fun fact: evacuation of civilians from South Ossetia was started on 08/02/2008, 6 days before Russo-Georgian war known as "war of 08/08/08". And two days before that - 07/31/2008 - ended Russian military excersice nearby.
5   Eric_Holder   @   2022 Feb 18, 1:28pm  

mell says
No. But Donbass people may be resettled/reshuffled. I don't consider this an invasion since donbass is majority pro Russia. It's a bit Iike a US state being close to secession.


Fun fact: FSB colonel Igor Girkin who started the fake uprising has famously complained:

“I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect that there wouldn’t be even a thousand of men in the entire region who were ready to risk their lives not in their city on the barricade next to their house, from where it takes half a day to get to the nearest national guardsman by car, but on the front line, where everyone day they shoot. Nevertheless, it is so.

"Donetsk land needs defenders... If men are not capable of this, women will have to be called in. From today I gave the order to accept them into the militia."


Tells a lot about how "close to sessesion" they really are/were.
6   mell   @   2022 Feb 18, 1:51pm  

Eric Holder says
mell says
No. But Donbass people may be resettled/reshuffled. I don't consider this an invasion since donbass is majority pro Russia. It's a bit Iike a US state being close to secession.


Fun fact: FSB colonel Igor Girkin who started the fake uprising has famously complained:

“I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect that there wouldn’t be even a thousand of men in the entire region who were ready to risk their lives not in their city on the barricade next to their house, from where it takes half a day to get to the nearest national guardsman by car, but on the front line, where everyone day they shoot. Nevertheless, it is so.

"Donetsk land needs defenders... If men are not capable of this, women will have to be called in. From today I gave the order to accept them into the militia."


Tells a lot about how "close to sessesion" they really are/were.


So is he saying he was surprised to see more than a thousand? Or that he did hardly find a single "freedom fighter" and thus called in a draft for both genders?
7   Eric_Holder   @   2022 Feb 18, 2:00pm  

mell says
So is he saying he was surprised to see more than a thousand? Or that he did hardly find a single "freedom fighter" and thus called in a draft for both genders?


Huh? He said literally "not a thousand men willing to risk their lives in a firefight". This is what usually happens when a whole "region" is "close to sessesion". I mean, didn't our South have the same problem when they couln't find any volunteers to fight Lincoln's troops? =)) And if some foreign dude who came across the border with a bunch of armed foreigners calls in a "draft", does it really look like a "popular uprising"?
8   mell   @   2022 Feb 18, 2:18pm  

Eric Holder says
mell says
So is he saying he was surprised to see more than a thousand? Or that he did hardly find a single "freedom fighter" and thus called in a draft for both genders?


Huh? He said literally "not a thousand men willing to risk their lives in a firefight". This is what usually happens when a whole "region" is "close to sessesion". I mean, didn't our South have the same problem when they couln't find any volunteers to fight Lincoln's troops? =)) And if some foreign dude who came across the border with a bunch of armed foreigners calls in a "draft", does it really look like a "popular uprising"?


The double negation in the quote threw me off. If nobody wants to join Russia then they shouldn't need any help to fend off a bunch off infiltrators. I happen to know pro and against Russian Ukrainians and I don't have a reason to doubt referendum results more or less than any Western election results, so anything is possible, but nobody seems overly worried no matter which side they're on. I do believe the donbass region to be in a pro Russian majority (while overall quite a minority), of course the question is what are the actual numbers and does it justify a split off? Europe had many such conflicts over the years and usually we sided with the ethnical/religious minority which wanted to split.
9   Onvacation   @   2022 Feb 18, 2:24pm  

Bd6r says
Other answer

Distraction from Ottawa Square.
10   mell   @   2022 Feb 18, 2:45pm  

Onvacation says
Bd6r says
Other answer

Distraction from Ottawa Square.

Agreed
11   Bd6r   @   2022 Feb 18, 3:04pm  

Onvacation says
Distraction from Ottawa Square.

Possible. But then why Pu is playing into their hands?
14   Patrick   @   2022 Feb 18, 5:47pm  



The war is actually in Canada, at the moment.
15   gabbar   @   2022 Feb 19, 5:54am  

16   RWSGFY   @   2022 Feb 19, 5:30pm  



Can they make ICBMs? Sure thing. They did in the past and they continue making Zenith and Antares space rockets now. Can they make nukes? It's not exactly rocket science and they do have many nuclear reactors.

Bye-bye nuclear non-proliferation BS?
17   Bd6r   @   2022 Feb 19, 8:01pm  

FuckCCP89 says
they make ICBMs? Sure thing. They did in the past and they continue making Zenith and Antares space rockets now. Can they make nukes? It's not exactly rocket science and they do have many nuclear reactors.

Bye-bye nuclear non-proliferation BS?

Yes to all that but i am not sure they have sufficiently large cajones. They could have stopped russian gas export to europe in 2014 which would make russia go broke and europe would start caring but they chose not to
18   mell   @   2022 Feb 19, 10:13pm  

Bd6r says
They could have stopped russian gas export to europe

Why would one want to stop commerce? We've been importing oil from the middle east for decades and buying crap from China forever. Keeping Russia away from doing business with Europe by any means is a failed strategy. It would be better for European countries to be energy independent - fuck going "green" - but nobody dictates the US whom to do business with. As useful as NATO once was, the world today would be better without it. Trump was right about that.
19   fdhfoiehfeoi   @   2022 Feb 19, 10:40pm  

Heard Fox or some propaganda network is circulating some shoddy footage of a reporter pretending to run from some war zone. I will say that in general, the amount of absurd, lying, bullshit in the past two years has been off the charts, to the point where they want us to believe up is down, left is right, and good is evil.

As to the pole I'd like to suggest we're asking about the wrong country. I think the more accurate question is "Will the United States invade Russia?". Right now I'd say most likely no.
20   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   @   2022 Feb 19, 11:38pm  

mell says
As useful as NATO once was, the world today would be better without it. Trump was right about that.


Esp. when you know it's the US that would send 90% of the troops and carry 99% of the expense, despite Europe having multiple G-7 members and being as if not more populous and wealthy (the EU as a whole) as we are.

"Oh, but Germany's sending a company of medics and a section of GSG Special Forces". Germany is what, the 3rd Richest Country in the fucking world with almost 100M people, and that's it?!
21   Bd6r   @   2022 Feb 20, 2:05am  

NuttBoxer says
Heard Fox or some propaganda network is circulating some shoddy footage of a reporter pretending to run from some war zone. I will say that in general, the amount of absurd, lying, bullshit in the past two years has been off the charts, to the point where they want us to believe up is down, left is right, and good is evil.

As to the pole I'd like to suggest we're asking about the wrong country. I think the more accurate question is "Will the United States invade Russia?". Right now I'd say most likely no.

One side lying does not exclude the other doing the same
22   fdhfoiehfeoi   @   2022 Feb 20, 7:48am  

Bd6r says
One side lying does not exclude the other doing the same


For sure. Putin is ex-KGB, and a total dictator. I don't think anyone here would deny that. But when Ukraine and Russia media, government, and citizens are all reporting one thing, and US is the only one reporting something different, it's pretty fucking clear who the liars are.

And just to be clear, even if Russia was attacking the Ukraine, and every other Eastern European country, I still wouldn't support US imperialistic war-mongering. And that seems to be the popular sentiment of a majority of this country. Our days of playing world police are done.
23   richwicks   @   2022 Feb 20, 8:18am  

No Russia won't invade Ukraine, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if our press claimed they had.
24   HeadSet   @   2022 Feb 20, 9:42am  

1994 Budapest Memorandum (where Ukraine gave up nukes in exchange for security guarantees from the West and Russia) being declared void by Ukraine unless Ukraine gets more security guarantees now? New take - Russia had to invade Ukraine to prevent nuclear proliferation.
25   Bd6r   @   2022 Feb 20, 11:17am  

NuttBoxer says
Our days of playing world police are done.

Sadly, no one will ask me or you about it

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