patrick.net

On Friday we were assured that Russia was going be in Kiev in less than 96 hours, and they were going to decapartite the Comedian.

Tenpoundbass says

On Friday we were assured that Russia was going be in Kiev in less than 96 hours, and they were going to decapartite the Comedian.

They were. In fact, the Russians were on the outskirts of Kiev in less than 24 hours, controlling a large airport. Both Russia and MSM and Ukr Gov confirmed this.

The reason is it's 96 hours is a desire to avoid Urban Warfare casualties. It's also why they avoided any cities of size, bypassing them whenever possible.

They are going to have to take the city now, which explains why a whole new convoy waiting on the sidelines is coming in. That's the heavy artillery and the infantry needed to do the storming, tanks in cities are useless without swarms of infantry working with them.

And why they offered negotiations. No way Urban Warfare isn't hell on earth, but the Russians will almost certainly prevail. They hoped to avoid it.

If taking Kiev goes over a week or two, THEN the Russian Army has problems.

Wait? Russia did really invade?

AmericanKulak says

They hoped to avoid it.

Almost as funny as Putler telling the Ulkranians to lay down their arms and go home.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Almost as funny as Putler telling the Ulkraninas to lay down their arms and go home.

Why wouldn't they?

There's going to be burning buildings and dead civilians aplenty. "Not a good look". If there was a 5% chance of avoiding it, it was worth the delay.

The airport came first, to stop offloading of massive amounts of anti-tank, MGs, etc.

Announcing the release of violent felons from prison if they have military experience is not the act of somebody who has got it in the bag, or at least a good chance.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

AmericanKulak says

They hoped to avoid it.

Almost as funny as Putler telling the Ulkraninas to lay down their arms and go home.

HOW DARE YOU DOUBT PUTIN'S CINCERITY!!! HE SAID HE WAS NOT GOING TO INVADE AND HE KEPT HIS WORD!!!!

It's over, Biden apparently threw in the towel. It'll remain so unless you see multiple US Mech/Armor divisions deployed to Hungary, Poland, Romania.

The real question is, how did this crisis happen?

Why did the West drop their old effective Cold Warrior analysis and resort to brags and bluster instead of proceeding carefully?

And will there be an effective insurgency if the Ukrainians don't surrender?

Kiev cam still sounds and looks peaceful.

AmericanKulak says

Why wouldn't they?

Just to keep the pattern alive. The pattern in which nazis get to the capital of a country which they invade but then stall.

AmericanKulak says

Why did the West drop their old effective Cold Warrior analysis and resort to brags and bluster instead of proceeding carefully?

The United States wants a new Cold War. The "war on terrorism" wasn't working out to fleece the American public, so they we're going back to the 1950s.

mostly reader says

Just to keep the pattern alive. The pattern in which nazis get to the capital of a country which they invade but then stall.

Nah, the most recent pattern is to say "This won't be like Saigon" and oversee a completely assed up evacuation that is worse than Saigon in Kabul:

The day was July 8. The topic: President Biden announced a timeline for a drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, with the military mission of two decades ending on Aug. 31.

After making his remarks, the president fielded this question: "Mr. President, some Vietnamese veterans see echoes of their experience in this withdrawal in Afghanistan. Do you see any parallels between this withdrawal and what happened in Vietnam?"

"None whatsoever," Biden replied. "Zero. What you had is you had entire brigades breaking through the gates of our embassy — six, if I’m not mistaken. The Taliban is not the South — the North Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy in the — of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable."

Politifactcheck: TRUE! Grabbing the wheels of a plane is not the same as being lifted from a helicopter on a roof. We rate this as 100% true using our exacting standard for things we like, and a more nebulous standard of what was really meant for people we don't! Just like we do the reverse "what they really meant" standard for the "New World Order" quote by the Ukr. MP!

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/567872-the-biden-fall-of-saigon-media-narrative-in-afghanistan-presents-worst

AmericanKulak says

Nah, the most recent pattern is to say "This won't be like Saigon" and oversee a completely assed up evacuation that is worse than Saigon in Kabul:

Nah. Doesn't look like the right pattern. Kabul was an internal matter. Nazis cross the boarder to attack Ukraine, not Kabul.

mostly reader says

Nah. Doesn't look like the right pattern. Kabul was an internal matter. Nazis cross the boarder to attack Ukraine, not Kabul.

Kabul is inside the USA?

I'm debating patterns.

And BTW, avoiding cities in the initial attack has been used by the US in Iraq, as well. The Marines bypassed Nasiriyah but the 3rd Infantry Div took the airport on the outskirts in the initial invasion. On the 3rd day of the ground war, is when Jessica Lynch was captured when her convoy was ambushed when they took a wrong turn and entered the city itself. There was a armored reece in force into the city itself on the 4th day, but we didn't fully invest the city for a while. We encircled in this way with many other Iraqi cities, taking the airport but leaving the dense areas alone, preferring to break the back and demoralize the Iraqi Army whenever possible.

Some Iraqi cities weren't invested due to stubborn resistance, esp. by foreign fighters, until April, two or three weeks after the ground assault.

Kiev has 2.8M people

AmericanKulak says

Kabul is inside the USA?

Kabul is inside Afghanistan. It was overtaken by forces from within Afghanistan. Kyiv is now under siege by external nazis. That's why one pattern works and the other one doesn't.

mostly reader says

Kabul is inside Afghanistan. It was overtaken by forces from within Afghanistan. Kyiv is now under siege by external nazis. That's why one pattern works and the other one doesn't.

Ah, so you missed my point about the real pattern being promises broken.

In any case, Kabul was under American/Allied control, and then lost. Biden's resounding failure wasn't that he failed to take Kabul, but leave it safely, despite promises it wasn't Saigon. Repeating another prestige-busting event in history he promised specifically to avoid last Summer mere weeks ahead of the disaster.

Just like Biden had claimed to have had gone "Toe-to-Toe" with Putin before, which apparently simply means he will ban Russian vodka but still buy their oil. A reminder that Biden removed Trump's hold on Nordstream2 and, like most Democrats, said Trump was irresponsible for berating NATO members. Now we reap the whirlwind of German military weakness and overdependence on Russian Gas (Not just Germany, but also the Netherlands and others).

Seeing all these missteps and disasters is no surprise when you realize Biden's State Department is basically Obama III with most of the same people in high positions.

I did miss your point, because it was somewhat unrelated to mine. You asked (rhetorically, I presume) - why don't Ukrainians lay down their arms and go home? I answered - to keep the pattern alive. The pattern in which Nazis get to the capital of a country that they invade, but then they stall.

The heavy arty and infantry on the way to Kiev:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/satellite-images-show-russian-convoys-creeping-up-on-ukraine/?source=patrick.net

“Putin may circle Kiev with tanks, but he’ll never gain the hearts and souls of the ‘Iranian’ people.”-Joe Biden, March 1st.

Actually, thanks to a Russian being the chief negotiator in the IAEA brokered Iran Deal, that may also not be true.

Either way, Americans win: Ukrainian armed citizenry with molotovs and AK-47s slap down a full Russian onslaught into Kiev, proving an armed citizenry is effective. OR, Putin takes Ukraine (or just out of NATO), giving an unmistakable slap in the face to the Internationalists in State and the Deep State, a solid defeat.

Defeat begets defeat, and it already appears the NWO decided to take a step back, at least in appearance, by suddenly embracing borders again. Don't trust them for shit, but we might get a breather to buy more ammo and YAMS!

AmericanKulak says

The heavy arty and infantry on the way to Kiev:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/satellite-images-show-russian-convoys-creeping-up-on-ukraine/?source=patrick.net

Sure. Kyiv is in a desperate state. I never argued against that, although miracles do happen. Sometimes those miracles even make a pattern (i.e. Nazis getting close but then stalling).

AmericanKulak says

Why wouldn't they?

Why wouldn't you, if Russian invaded the USA?

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Why wouldn't you, if Russian invaded the USA?

If Russia, China, and NORK were talking to the Mexican Government about joining NATO, at what point would you invade and overthrow the Mexican Government?

NOT to do so would be naive and irresponsible.

mostly reader says

Sure. Kyiv is in a desperate state. I never argued against that, although miracles do happen. Sometimes those miracles even make a pattern (i.e. Nazis getting close but then stalling).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Warsaw_(1920)

AmericanKulak says

at what point would you invade and overthrow the Mexican Government?

And the Mexicans should rise up and fight back.

Yes, the Poles beat back a Russian COUNTER-offensive against the Polish invasion of Russia (and Ukraine.)

Ah, Wikipedia. "Liberate Kiev". Kiev was many hundreds and hundreds of miles from the Polish Border set by the Treaty that created it at the end of WW1. The only liberating the Poles were going to do is Liberate the Idea of the Polish Imperial Commonwealth.

Pilsudski is stll awesome though, but this was a counter-attack of a Polish Invasion, not an invasion of Poland beaten back.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

And the Mexicans should rise up and fight back.

And be smacked down.

Would you invade Mexico or not if POTUS?

Ethnic Russians make up about 17% of Ukraine.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Ethnic Russians make up about 17% of Ukraine.

Would you invade Mexico if it was just begging China/Russia/NORK to open up bases in Mexico?

AmericanKulak says

Would you invade Mexico if it was just begging China/Russia/NORK to open up bases in Mexico?

Would Mexicans fight to repel the invaders?

AmericanKulak says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Ethnic Russians make up about 17% of Ukraine.

Would you invade Mexico if it was just begging China/Russia/NORK to open up bases in Mexico?

Just for begging?

AmericanKulak says

Kiev has 2.8M people

Well, before evacuation anyway. 2.8 million may mean lots of defenders, but it also means lots of food and water needed. The Russians just need to surround the city and cut off all supplies, electricity, fuel and water.

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

Kiev has 2.8M people

Well, before evacuation anyway. 2.8 million may mean lots of defenders, but it also means lots of food and water needed. The Russians just need to surround the city and cut off all supplies, electricity, fuel and water.

Spend 14 years modernizing your military and constantly crowing about all the precision munitions and sophisticated aircraft. End up resorting to medieval tactics using 1940s tech.

HeadSet says

The Russians just need to surround the city and cut off all supplies, electricity, fuel and water.

Huge river runs right through the city, so water won't be a problem.

AmericanKulak says

Very likely could begin tomorrow

It already began a few days ago.

Continuing the Mexico analogy, Mexico backs Mexican seccessionists in South Texas, and recognizes two breakaway republics, formerly part of the USA. I wonder what role the US military might have in the argument.

https://t.me/greatreject/31532?single=&source=patrick.net

Woman tells truth about Ukraine live on French media. Hosts are stunned.

Summary: Ukrainian government is no better than Russian government, murdering journalists, dubious election, bad economy. She also says that Zelensky is a puppet.

So even though the Ukranians want independence from Russia, they are not terribly motivated to support their own corrupt government either.

Patrick says

So even though the Ukranians want independence from Russia, they are not terribly motivated to support their own corrupt government either.

Yuuge difference between "gubbermint" and "country".

Patrick says

https://t.me/greatreject/31532?single=&source=patrick.net

Woman tells truth about Ukraine live on French media. Hosts are stunned.

Weird with the guy actually gaslighting the murder of journalists by Zelensky as a big nothing.

Patrick says

https://t.me/greatreject/31532?single=&source=patrick.net

Woman tells truth about Ukraine live on French media. Hosts are stunned.

Summary: Ukrainian government is no better than Russian government, murdering journalists, dubious election, bad economy. She also says that Zelensky is a puppet.

So even though the Ukranians want independence from Russia, they are not terribly motivated to support their own corrupt government either.

Yeah, because a pronouncement from one random woman whose identity and even nationality cannot be verified in a language we don't understand is THE GOLDEN TRUTH and DOES NOT REQUIRE PROOF!!!! Everything else does, but not this!

Besides, even if any of that is THE GOLDEN TRUTH, it still doesn't make Russian unprovoked and unjustified attack neither legal nor moral.

RWSGFY says

Spend 14 years modernizing your military and constantly crowing about all the precision munitions and sophisticated aircraft. End up resorting to medieval tactics using 1940s tech.

Either that or simply carpet bomb the place and kill everyone. How do you think that would go over?