patrick.net

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/none-shall-sleep-monday-february

In the long, deplorable history of stupid foreign policy decisions, one big blunder stands out: Biden’s pugilistic decision to impose massive, across-the-board sanctions on Russia. In three short years, instead of bankrupting Russia, Biden’s sanctions skyrocketed Russia up the economic charts to fourth largest economy in the world, and transformed it from a “developing” to a “wealthy” economy.

The main reason why Biden’s sanctions backfired so spectacularly is because they solved Putin’s biggest economic problem. At the risk of oversimplifying, let’s recap recent history. Following the collapse of communism in the late 80’s, Russia’s fledgling free market flourished. But it came with a lot of crime. All that crime eventually blossomed into a cruel cartel of corrupt oligarchs.

So the Russian people elected Vladimir Putin, at least in part, with a mandate to clamp down on the rampant crime and corruption accompanying the country’s freed market. Putin did. Many corrupt oligarchs accidentally tumbled off the balconies of their luxury high-rise apartments, taking speedy, one-way trips to the pavement.

But even as corruption was brought under control, Russia’s reforming economy still sputtered.

Russia’s next problem was that even its loyal, law-abiding oligarchs and entrepreneurs rationally saw better financial prospects outside Russia. It was a chicken-and-egg problem. Russia’s lack of development encouraged its entrepreneurs to invest in other countries. This kind of capital drift slowly bled Russia’s economy, which was stuck in a vicious cycle— perhaps better than communism, but still not quite first world.

Enter the answer to all Putin’s financial problems: Joseph Robinette Biden. After Biden closed off international investment as a viable option, Russia’s capitalists had no choice but to start investing back into Russia. This new domestic focus created an economic renaissance like nothing in Russian history. Russia’s economy has improved in nearly every measure.

Hapless Joe Biden single-handedly created a Golden Age in Russia.

Sanctions are the ultimate tariffs - if Kunstler is to be believed, then the syllogism indicates that Trump is on the right track.

Syllogism - A form of deductive reasoning consisting of a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion; for example, All humans are mortal, the major premise, I am a human, the minor premise, therefore, I am mortal, the conclusion.

WASHINGTON — President Trump is prepared to increase US sanctions for Russia to bring about an end to its war on Ukraine, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to the conflict, exclusively told The Post this week ...

Sanctions enforcement on Russia are “only about a 3” on a scale of 1 to 10 on how painful the economic pressure can be, Kellogg said. The US sanctions themselves — such as those targeting Russia’s lucrative energy sector — are nominally twice as high, but there is still room to ratchet them up.

“You could really increase the sanctions — especially the latest sanctions [targeting oil production and exports,]” he said. “It’s opened the aperture way high to do something.

“And if there’s anybody who understands leverage, it’s President Donald J. Trump, and you can see that with what he’s recently done [in other foreign problem-solving.]”

-- New York Post

Ukrainian drones struck a key pumping station on a major international pipeline in southern Russia, disrupting oil supplies from Kazakhstan, the pipeline operator said Monday.

In the latest attack overnight, seven explosive-laden drones struck a pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which carries Kazakh oil across southern Russia for export via the Black Sea, including to Western Europe.

"Oil transportation through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline system is being carried out at reduced pumping levels," the company said on social media.

The 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) pipeline is operated by a consortium that includes the Russian and Kazakh governments, as well as Western energy majors Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell. In 2024, the pipeline loaded more than 63 million tons of oil onto tankers at its terminal in the southern Russian port of Novorossiysk, the company said.

The overnight attack targeted the Kropotkinskaya pumping station, the pipeline's largest in Russia's southern Krasnodar region.

...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/17/ukrainian-drones-hit-major-pipeline-in-southern-russia-disrupting-oil-supplies-a88043

Another refinery denazified:

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1892158491478893030

Ryazan refinery demilitrarized (for the 3rd time in so many months):

"MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russia's Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations after an attack by Ukrainian drones on Monday, three industry sources told Reuters.
The main crude distillation unit at the refinery, CDU-6, caught fire in the attack and the plant has fully suspended oil processing, the sources said.
Rosneft, which owns the plant, did not respond to a request for comment. Ukraine's military said on Monday some of its drones had hit the Ryazan oil refinery overnight, with at least five explosions occurring in its vicinity.

The governor of the Ryazan region, Pavel Malkov, said on the Telegram messaging app that falling debris from destroyed Ukrainian drones had sparked a fire at an industrial enterprise in the region. Malkov did not elaborate.

The CDU-6 unit has a capacity of some 170,000 bpd, or some 48% of Ryazan's refining capacity.

Ryazan refinery partially resumed oil processing and loading of motor fuels to railway tanks on February 11 after staying idle for 18 days after another attack by Ukrainian drones on January 24.

Ryazan refinery processed 13.1 million metric tons (262,000 barrels per day), or almost 5% of Russia's total refining throughput in 2024.

Another refinery liberated overnight:

On the night of 25-26 February, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (DIU), in coordination with other units of the defence forces, launched an attack on the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.

The source indicates that the attack resulted in at least 40 explosions and a fire at the facility, damaging oil refining equipment.

Local residents have shared photos and videos online showing the aftermath and reported that the attack also targeted the local seaport.

The affected facilities play a key role in supplying logistical support to the Russian forces.

Further details on the damage caused by the strike are being clarified.

Ukies have this so in the bag, with just the Europeans paying for Ukraine, they'll have no problem. If the Russians cross the Vistula we have nukes.

AmericanKulak says

Ukies have this so in the bag, with just the Europeans paying for Ukraine, they'll have no problem. If the Russians cross the Vistula we have nukes.

Who is 'we'?

Eric Holder says

MOSCOW, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Russia's vast Arctic oil business is facing major disruption from U.S. sanctions

usaid funded reuters

Another refinery denazified:

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1896335503898599824

Eric Holder says

Another refinery denazified:

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1896335503898599824

Right.

Last year, the Eloi bought $22 billion in Russian gas/oil despite 'sanctions'. They paid less than that for 'saving Ukraine'.

This entire thread is Ukey Fluffing Bullshit.

Major oil facility sanctioned and denazified by drones:

Ukraine has carried out a second attack on oil export infrastructure in Russia's Krasnodar region in the space of a month, striking a transshipment and storage facility which processes more than 28,000 barrels per day of Russian oil destined for international markets.

Krasnodar authorities on Wednesday confirmed that suicide drones attacked the privately-operated Kazkazskaya facility in the south of the country in the early hours of 19 March. The aerial assault caused a large fire, according to pictures and videos of the incident posted by witnesses on Russian social networks on Wednesday.
Russia's defence ministry said that three Ukrainian drones were used in the attack on the facility, carried out shortly after Moscow and Washington agreed a partial ceasefire to halt strikes on each others' energy and power generating infrastructure. An oil reservoir on the site has burned out as a result of the attack, the ministry said.

Kazkazskaya receives light and sweet oil from Russian producers by rail, and then ships the crude about 13 kilometres via pipeline to the Kropotkinskaya pumping and storage station operated by Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

The facility was responsible for delivering more than 28,000 barrels per day of Russian oil to the Caspian Pipeline last year, or about 19% of total Russian oil exports via the network, according to reports in Moscow.

The attack on Kazkazskaya follows an earlier strike on the Kropotkinskaya pumping station by Ukrainian drones. The facility on 17 February reportedly suffered damage to its gas-fired power generation and electronic control rooms which manage the pumping facility.

After assessing the damage to Kropotkinskaya, Caspian Pipeline Consortium indicated that repairs would take about two months during which operations of the station will be stopped, with expected completion in May.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-security/ukraine-hits-another-russian-oil-facility-to-delay-black-sea-exports/2-1-1794817

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/billionaire-boomerang-tuesday-april

Before the Proxy War, Russia’s economy was over-reliant on foreign investment. Biden’s sanctions made foreign investment impossible, and the unexpected result was a renaissance in Russia’s economy, as Russian billionaires —cut off from their London townhouses and Swiss banks— were forced to invest at home.

Cut off from the West, Russia didn’t wither. It de-globalized and re-nationalized— and it worked. In just two years, Russia rocketed from mid-level doldrums to the top of the world’s wealthiest countries list. Once an ailing, foreign-dependent economy, Russia is now independent, politically stable, economically self-sufficient, and —despite all expert predictions— stronger than ever.

Patrick says

Once an ailing, foreign-dependent economy, Russia is now independent, politically stable, economically self-sufficient, and —despite all expert predictions— stronger than ever.

The oligarchs, sure. Average citizens are probably getting smashed. It's not all that easy for a US citizen to get in so who knows if it's a lie. Also no one wants to go there unless they're paid for it.

I only know of two US citizens personally that have been to Russia. And they couldn't just roam where they wanted. They wall you in at the west end of Russia by the major cities. The quality of living from my understanding is shit outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Maybe some other small cities by the Black Sea.

It's no different than N Korea. If people or outsiders don't see it or record it, it's not happening the way they tell the story. A Russian can fly into America with minimal hassle and take a tour of the whole country. Russia hides their poverty is what I've been told.

We broadcast our homelessness globally whether it's Seattle, LA, Austin, NYC, etc. Put this way you can be middle class here on $100k, in Russia it would be like making $20k. Again this is from the two people I know that went. The cities are great they said, but get outside them and it's ghetto Russians.

Patrick says

Before the Proxy War, Russia’s economy was over-reliant on foreign investment. Biden’s sanctions made foreign investment impossible, and the unexpected result was a renaissance in Russia’s economy, as Russian billionaires —cut off from their London townhouses and Swiss banks— were forced to invest at home.

Wow!

This is an important and recent lesson for the USA.

If sanctions caused Russian Billionaires to reinvest in the Russia, imagine what tariffs will do for the reindustrialization of our economy!

It's almost as if the US, full of iron, coal, wheat, pork bellies, oil, etc. is in a similar position, with the added benefit that tariffs, unlike foreign-imposed sanctions, are under our control and we can tweak them as appropriate.

Field vs. Clark (1892), SCOTUS established the Congressional Authority to delegate to the President the power of tariffs.

We can just do things.

By the way, the Panic of 1893 was caused by reducing the Tariff by Demonrat Free Traders, who also introduced an income tax that was shot down by SCOTUS in 1894. It smashed the tin plate (stain resistant plating prior to mild and then stainless steel) and other industries leading to 25-35% unemployment rates by misguided economic policies.



Fortunately in 1897, McKinley the Great reimposed a high tariff rate, the Dingly Act, that recovered the Economy.

External Revenue Service Tax outsourcing and importing, not American Productivity.

Another great idea is a Navigation Act that requires at least 50% of imports be brought in on US owned, insured, flagged, and built ships/aircraft with US Crews. The USN is has the USNR

Renaissance with central bank interest rate at 20%, mortgages at 40% and all manufacturing basically working to crank out (or refurbish) stuff which will go to be destroyed in some Dumb Ass field.

With renaissances like that who needs malaise. 🤡

And no, I don't think anybody moved any money from London to Moscow. They are not THAT stupid. The KGB fucks are burning through (what's left of) theire National Wealth Fund.

What general benefits has Free Trade since the 1990s brought to the average American who owns little to no stock?

Mass high wage unemployment? Definitely not.
Cheap Housing? LOL.
Low Personal or Government Debt? Bwahahahaha. The US has never seen so much debt in it's history. Most of which happened in the past 20-25 years.
High Quality goods lasting years? You're lucky if Chinese crap lasts 3-4 years.
Lower Taxes? Hell no.
Less SNAP, Medicaid, EIC, other government programs? No way.
Less Corporate subsidies? LOL
Less Corporate Bailouts? The 1990-2024 period saw the greatest bailouts, both as percentages and raw dollars, of any period in US History, under mostly RINO Congresses.
More Democracy & Freedom in CHYna? Hahahahahaa
Reciprocal low tariff rates on things the US is good at (ie not pink plastic lawn flamingoes, but cars, chickens, dairy, aircraft)? Not at all.

Economic Reality-based Evidence Trumps Economic Theory on the Chalkboard. Free Trade has demonstrably failed.

But but but, how did China have tariffs on us?

I thought tariffs led to economic disaster, according to Wall Street?

I thought free trade was reciprocated, certainly given 30 years!

So how did China built such a massive industrial base with such GDP growth annually while charging evil, uneconomical tariffs and never reciprocating free trade in 3 decades? ;)

And the only prescription is more tariffs

MolotovCocktail says

Who is 'we'?

France, Britain, and if necessary if it goes beyond a tac here and there, the USA.

Official government statistics agency Rosstat reports catastrophic losses across the entire corporate sectors of oil, gas & mining for Feb and March.

Highlights:

February 2025

Mining: -61%

Oil/Gas: -73%

March 2025

Mining: -89%

Oil/Gas: -106%

RWSGFY says

Official government statistics agency Rosstat reports catastrophic losses across the entire corporate sectors of oil, gas & mining for Feb and March.
Highlights:

it is as credible as Chicom statistics

they may be trying to put on some poser act like playing victim to show they are harmed by sanctions meanwhile they are doing okay selling oil and gas to China, India, etc

.

RWSGFY says

Official government statistics agency Rosstat reports catastrophic losses across the entire corporate sectors of oil, gas & mining for Feb and March.

Highlights:

February 2025

Mining: -61%

Oil/Gas: -73%

March 2025

Mining: -89%

Oil/Gas: -106%

Wow! With a -106% decrease in oil and gas production, the Russians must be stuffing oil back in the ground to unproduce that extra 6 percent.

stereotomy says

Wow! With a -106% decrease in oil and gas production, the Russians must be stuffing oil back in the ground to unproduce that extra 6 percent.

Hard to believe this , that is they are losing money as far as reporting the negative net income of 20.1 billion rubles

Looks like Kremlin propaganda to try to hide that they are making a lot of money still by selling to India, China, etc
.

MOSCOW, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and exporting infrastructure, striking the most important sector of President Vladimir Putin's economy to show it can fight back as the United States seeks to broker a peace deal.
The attacks disrupted Moscow's oil processing and exports, created gasoline shortages in some parts of Russia ...

...
Ukrainian attacks on 10 plants disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refinery capacity, or 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations.
The drone war has pushed more crude towards exports from the world's No.2 oil exporter at a time Washington is pressing China and India to reduce purchases of Russian oil.

...

Russia had tightened its gasoline export ban in July to deal with a spike in domestic demand even before the attacks.
There were shortages of gasoline in some areas of Russian-controlled Ukraine, southern Russia and even the Far East, forcing motorists to switch to more expensive petrol due to shortages of the regular A-95 grade.

...
Russia relies on oil and gas exports for a quarter of its budget revenues, which are funding a 25% rise in defence spending this year to the highest levels since the Cold War.

Historical Context:

During Hurricane Katrina (2005), when about 10% of refining capacity was disrupted, gasoline prices jumped nearly 30% in some areas. A 17% loss would likely exceed that, especially if prolonged.

I'm old enough to remember how the head of that fine institution was saying that Americans would have to use trampolines to get to the ISS if they decided to deny them rides on their rockets.

PS. After being fired from Roskosmos the guy went to Dumb-Ass and had his dumb ass literally blown off.

Eric Holder says

denazified

Ukraine is now attacking it's own troops?

Is it really that difficult to sanction Russia by removing GPS signal over Russian territory. That can make a lot of mess today. Military rely on this as well.
In meantime US taxpayers pay $2,000,000 per day average for GPS maintenance giving free world access.

REpro says

Is it really that difficult to sanction Russia by removing GPS signal over Russian territory. That can make a lot of mess today. Military rely on this as well.
In meantime US taxpayers pay $2,000,000 per day average for GPS maintenance giving free world access.

Russia has their own GPS System GLONASS with 24 Satellites. They've had this satellite system in space for decades.

rocketjoe79 says

REpro says

Is it really that difficult to sanction Russia by removing GPS signal over Russian territory. That can make a lot of mess today. Military rely on this as well.
In meantime US taxpayers pay $2,000,000 per day average for GPS maintenance giving free world access.

Russia has their own GPS System GLONASS with 24 Satellites. They've had this satellite system in space for decades.

And their military uses it completely.

Europe also has their own system too, I think.

I'd be surprised if the Chinese don't.

More sanctions:

MOSCOW, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Rosneft’s Ryazan oil refinery, one of the largest in Russia, suspended crude processing after a Ukrainian drone attack on November 15, three industry sources told Reuters.
"The plant is expected to remain idle until the end of the month. No (oil product) loadings are planned before December 1," one of the sources said.

WookieMan says

I only know of two US citizens personally that have been to Russia. And they couldn't just roam where they wanted. They wall you in at the west end of Russia by the major cities.

Grok:

By Russian law (Federal Law No. 115-FZ), U.S. citizens with a valid visa can travel domestically in non-combat zones via trains, buses, or flights without special permits. No blanket bans apply to internal movement in these areas. However, visas tie to pre-submitted itineraries, limiting deviations to approved purposes.

But it took 4 queries to find that answer, because Grok and other AI was just saying "Russia bad don't go there" over and over in various ways. This makes me suspect that AI is being used for political purposes.

More oil sanctions:

ISTANBUL — Ukraine used domestically produced Sea Baby naval drones to strike two Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea, an official from Ukraine’s security services told the Associated Press on Saturday.

The two oil tankers, Kairos and Virat — said to be part of Paper Tiger's “shadow fleet” that evades sanctions — were struck in quick succession off Turkey’s Black Sea coast late Friday afternoon.

The strikes prompted rescue operations by the Turkish coast guard and other teams. Crew members on board both vessels were reported to be safe.

The SBU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the operations, provided a video of the alleged attack, purporting to show the destruction of two tankers at sea.

The official said the two tankers were vessels sanctioned by the West, adding that Ukrainian intelligence continued “to take active steps to curtail Paper Tiger's financial capabilities to wage war against Ukraine.”

Sea Baby naval drones had disabled vessels capable of transporting oil worth almost $70 million, hindering Russia’s efforts to circumvent international sanctions, the official said.

Why don't Paper Tiger use its Black Sea Fleet to escort and protect their tankers? :trollface:

And yet more oil sanctions:

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has halted operations at its marine terminal in Novorossiysk following what the company describes as a drone boat attack on its offshore mooring equipment.

The consortium, which transports Kazakh and Russian oil to global markets, announced the incident on social media. Loading and other port operations have stopped, and tankers were moved outside the CPC water area.

"As a result, the company's mooring equipment was damaged," the company reported, adding that emergency protection systems activated to shut down pipelines prevented any oil spill into the Black Sea.

No casualties were reported among CPC personnel or contractors.

The company said the berth can no longer be used ...

What's Black Sea Fleet doing? Novorosiysk is their home base since they lost Sevastopol and yet no protection for vital oil export infrastracture. This is beyond neutered, this is "doesn't exist anymore" kinda deal, lol.

The long arm of sanctions reaching as far as African coast:

At 11:45 pm on Thursday, November 27, the Mersin – a tanker anchored for two months 10 nautical miles (19 kilometers) off the Senegalese coast – suffered damage: "four external explosions," according to its Turkish owner, Besiktas Shipping, on Monday, December 1. The vessel, registered in Panama, sustained severe damage.

As shown in videos posted on social media, the stern of the 183-meter-long ship was half-submerged, a fact confirmed by the owner, who mentioned "water ingress in the engine room." The Mersin had departed on August 21 from Taman, a port near the Kerch Strait...

RWSGFY says

What's Black Sea Fleet doing? Novorosiysk is their home base since they lost Sevastopol and yet no protection for vital oil export infrastracture. This is beyond neutered, this is "doesn't exist anymore" kinda deal, lol.

The Russian navy is about as useful as it's air force LOL!

Patrick says

This makes me suspect that AI is being used for political purposes.

So much for objective, unbiased and reliability.