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FOMO: Dallas fed Warning for bidding too high on housing.
invite response
2022 Mar 31, 10:27am 732 views 5 comments
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2
Ceffer
2022 Mar 31, 10:42am
Ceffer
2022 Mar 31, 10:42am
Last listing in my hood in tri valley for house my model increased nominal sale price 20 percent over last sale. My hood is usually a 'trailing indicator', meaning it drags ass on pricing but eventually catches up to the average going rates. This is over a couple of months. I am not into prediction, but this has to be a peak leading into price collapse, unless fiat money is truly circling the drain.
This is the biggest short term increase percentage in nominal price since we lived here.
This is the biggest short term increase percentage in nominal price since we lived here.
3
TechBrosWon
2022 Mar 31, 10:54am
TechBrosWon
2022 Mar 31, 10:54am
Are they actively trying to diffuse it or slaving to NAR and construction industry.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329?source=patrick.net
Importantly, experience from the housing bubble in the early 2000s and the subsequent development of advanced tools for early detection and deployment of warning indicators—some illustrated in this analysis—mean that market participants, banks, policymakers and regulators are all better equipped to assess in real time the significance of a housing boom. Thus, they are in a more-informed position to react quickly and avoid the most severe, negative consequences of a housing correction.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329?source=patrick.net
Importantly, experience from the housing bubble in the early 2000s and the subsequent development of advanced tools for early detection and deployment of warning indicators—some illustrated in this analysis—mean that market participants, banks, policymakers and regulators are all better equipped to assess in real time the significance of a housing boom. Thus, they are in a more-informed position to react quickly and avoid the most severe, negative consequences of a housing correction.
4
Patrick
2022 Mar 31, 11:47am
Patrick
2022 Mar 31, 11:47am
FarmersWon says
@FarmersWon
I ignore the market and look only at the price of any particular house I want to buy compared to what it would cost to rent that.
If I can find a house I like which is cheaper than renting the same thing, I would buy it. I can't find any of those in California, and not sure I want to stay in California anyway.
I think in most of the country it is normal to find houses that are cheaper than renting the same thing, but not here.
If the housing bust happen, Would you buy this time?
@FarmersWon
I ignore the market and look only at the price of any particular house I want to buy compared to what it would cost to rent that.
If I can find a house I like which is cheaper than renting the same thing, I would buy it. I can't find any of those in California, and not sure I want to stay in California anyway.
I think in most of the country it is normal to find houses that are cheaper than renting the same thing, but not here.
5
TechBrosWon
2022 Mar 31, 11:49am
TechBrosWon
2022 Mar 31, 11:49am
Patrick says
Fair enough.
I think prices are also rising fast in other parts of country.
FarmersWon saysIf the housing bust happen, Would you buy this time?
@FarmersWon
I ignore the market and look only at the price of any particular house I want to buy compared to what it would cost to rent that.
If I can find a house I like which is cheaper than renting the same thing, I would buy it. I can't find any of those in California, and not sure I want to stay in California anyway.
I think in most of the country it is normal to find houses that are cheaper than renting the same thing, but not here.
Fair enough.
I think prices are also rising fast in other parts of country.
Monitoring Emergence of Housing Bubbles in Real Time
An asset—in this case, housing—is in the primary expansionary phase of a bubble when price rises are out of step with market fundamentals. Rapid real house-price appreciation, such as that observed now, does not in itself signal a bubble. Shifts in disposable income, the cost of credit and access to it, supply disruptions, and rising labor and raw construction materials costs are among the economic reasons for sustained real house-price gains.
But real house prices can diverge from market fundamentals when there is widespread belief that today’s robust price increases will continue. If many buyers share this belief, purchases arising from a “fear of missing out” can drive up prices and heighten expectations of strong house-price gains.