patrick.net

Long Term Trends in Precious Metals
Gold, Up and up and up compared to fiat. Notice the flatline before 1971. Also notice the little bump at the beginning of the chart, that's when FDR federalized gold and made it illegal to own. The late 1970's runup coincided with the Hunt Bro's silver fiasco.


Now silver. Notice the little bump up in the mid 1960's when we took silver completely out of our coinage. (Anyone know what "40% silver" coins are?) Then the big peak in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to "corner the market", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1980/04/27/hunt-brothers-thrill-ride-in-silver-takes-us-close-to-disaster/505507ce-a75b-407b-a407-0ed12cb35a5a/
before the SEC, CFTC, and the Fed shut them down. Also notice the "Iwog peak" in 2011 where a couple of market timers cashed out at just the right time. IMO silver has nowhere to go but up.

Mark Dice Trying To Trade 1 oz Gold Coin (worth $1800 at the time of the video) for Worthless Random Stuff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_x8VswuLwU

Onvacation says

FDR federalized gold and made it illegal to own.

That's an exaggeration, was never illegal.

Onvacation says

Now silver.

Not sure there's data, but would rather see this go back to the 1870's when silver standard was removed. Everything else significant in our financial history is pinned to this one moment.

NuttBoxer says

That's an exaggeration, was never illegal.

Yes it was. An individual could have up to 5 ounces of gold bullion meaning coins and bars, anything beyond that was illegal.

People could have gold in the form of jewelry and several things were done to attain that.

It was a voluntary turn in, not mandatory confiscation. Feel free to provide a citation proving otherwise, but Griffin and Sanders both disagree with you. And their collective knowledge on this subject is more than we'll ever forget.

NuttBoxer says

It was a voluntary turn in, not mandatory confiscation. Feel free to provide a citation proving otherwise,

Executive Order 6102 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was a bailout of the Federal Reserve that was counterfeiting money.

Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $487 in 2023)[7] per troy ounce. Under the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, as amended by the recently passed Emergency Banking Act of March 9, 1933, a violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 (equivalent to $235,000 in 2023),[7] up to ten years in prison, or both.

It won't work this time. People who own bullion would rather dump the stuff in the Mariana Trench than give it to the government.

.

time for a correction to gold price ?

.


.

richwicks says

Executive Order 6102 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was a bailout of the Federal Reserve that was counterfeiting money.

Also the Fed 'bought' citizen's gold for 20 bucks and immediately revalued it at $35. That can't have felt too good.

Can someone explain this graph?

Patrick says

Can someone explain this graph?

We might be at the inflection point where the dollar goes to worthlessness and commodities become the only tradeable object, but engh, who knows?

Gold has 3 times become the about 1 billionth of the national debt in terms of ounces. The last time it was 800 dollars when our national debt was about 800 billion in 1981. It did this in 1933 as well, but I'm not looking up the debt. I should produce a graph.

EVENTUALLY this will happen again, but at that point, we might be living in a civil war zone. You'll be able to buy a house for 10 ounces of gold, but you won't want to live there.

What the Federal Reserve has done, I couldn't even imagine 20 years ago. You know what Quantitative Easing was? the Fed created money, it was put into the economy, and Treasury purchased bonds, banks purchased these bonds, and the banks made money off from interest. This is why interest rates were so low, the banks didn't need your money to loan out, they got it from the Treasury.

Austrian Economics says you can frustrate the law of supply and demand, but you cannot stop it. Gold will go up when people perceive it as something worthwhile to own. It is, fairly, a pretty useless metal. It only has worth because "our superiors" think it does.

The bond market has been on the way to implosion for a while. No one has confidence in the US government to repay debt anymore, or in paper money to be honored years from now. That's the high level. Rumor is some VERY powerful buyers have started dumping dollars for real money in the past few weeks. Either way the outcome will be economic collapse. Whether you run to the jails of CDBC, or the freedom of real money on the other side is up to you. If you aren't prepared, I'd guess they'll have some carrots to get you into the cages. Please be prepared...

richwicks says

NuttBoxer says

It was a voluntary turn in, not mandatory confiscation. Feel free to provide a citation proving otherwise,

Executive Order 6102 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was a bailout of the Federal Reserve that was counterfeiting money.

Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $487 in 2023)[7] per troy ounce. Under the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, as amended by the recently passed Emergency Banking Act of March 9, 1933, a violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 (equivalent to $235,000 in 2023),[7] up to ten years in prison, or both.

It won't work this time. People who own bullion would rather dump the stuff in the Mariana Trench than give it to the government.

I just want to say this for all the Ukrainian, Israeli, and US government supporters. The above clearly demonstrates I was wrong, and Rick was right. I have no problem admitting I made a mistake. Feel free to do the same any time, no one will think less of you.

I respect people who hold to the truth, not people who try to win arguments.

If you didn't know, gold and silver have been suppressed for over a hundred years. The connection of real physical to fake paper is gone.

https://www.rt.com/business/595122-west-losing-gold-east/

Patrick says

Can someone explain this graph?

The key here is "real rates"; i.e., inflation-adjusted. If inflation is high, bond rates net inflation plummet, since bonds lag inflation. Gold prices in general follow asset prices, which are the first to rise before general consumer price inflation; i.e. asset price inflation is a leading indicator of general inflation (often by multiple years in advance).

Look at the late 1970's - gold shot up as well has housing prices. Then the Fed put interest rates close to 20% (which was much greater than the inflation rate, so "real" rates skyrocketed) and crashed the banking system, the housing market, gold, and the industrial economy.

"Austin cookie delivery firm Tiff's Treats is branching out from chocolate chips to gold bullion. Riding a wave of global interest in the precious metal, the new initiative is a way for the cookie delivery company to expand its appeal in this Amazon-fueled age of immediate gratification. Instead of paying about $21 for a box of a dozen chocolate chip cookies to be delivered to your friend, coworker or loved one, you can now pay roughly $2,500 for what the company deems its "bullion bundle" — a box of cookies plus a one-ounce, 24-karat bar of gold. The price of the package fluctuates with the daily gyrations of gold.

In South Korea: Aside from ramen and sausages, South Korea’s convenience stores have a new popular item on the menu — gold bars. The country’s largest convenience store chain, CU, has been collaborating with the Korea Minting and Security Printing Corporation (KOMSCO) to offer customers mini gold bars — and they’re selling like hot cakes.

A variety of finger-nail sized gold bars weighing between 0.1 gram and 1.87 gram have been up for sale at CU outlets since April. A 1.87-gram bar sells for 225,000 won ($165.76) and a 0.5-gram bar sells for 77,000 won.

Priced at 113,000 won each, 1 gram bars were sold out within two days, according to local news reports. The bars come with congratulatory messages, birthday wishes and even designs for personality types.

People in their 30s were most active in purchasing these gold bars, accounting for over 41% of the total sales since their launch, according to CU’s commerce phone app Pocket CU. Those in their 40s make up 35.2% of the sales, followed by people in their 50s at 15.6%. People in their 20s accounted for 6.8% of all sales."

- Franklin Sanders

The only problem with the "consumer gold" is when you try to sell it for anywhere near the price at which you bought it - try a 50% haircut at least. The big question for "consumer gold" (as opposed to "collectible" coins or good delivery bars) is provenance. For all anyone knows, it's gold-plated tungsten (which is virtually identical in density to gold). Plus, there is the BSA/AML aspect, "Why do you have so much gold, are you a terrorist or money launderer?" You have to clear 30% just to net out on the collectibles tax, to which gold is subject.

No, gold for most people is an insurance policy against the resolution of the Triffin Dilemma; namely, the dissolution of Bretton Woods / Petrodollar.

Everyone's holding..

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/vast-majority-professional-investors-own-some-gold

It's not quite the Rubicon, but gold crossed $2500 at closing on Friday:



From about $250 in 2000 to $2500 today. Not bad for a lump of metal. But muh Bitcoin . . . suck on a tulip bulb.

stereotomy says

It's not quite the Rubicon, but gold crossed $2500 at closing on Friday:



From about $250 in 2000 to $2500 today. Not bad for a lump of metal. But muh Bitcoin . . . suck on a tulip bulb.

Gold went up about 10% annually over last 24 years.

I would not put no more than $30,000 or 3% of assets (whichever is greater) in Bitcoin as a hedge in a fiat currency environment.

.

From what I'm reading of various Wall Street pundits recommendations to high wealth clients (+$3 million in stocks/ETFs/liquid assets), put 3% of assets in a Bitcoin ETF, 6% in gold and silver, and 6% in an oil and gas ETF.

Well, I have to agree with Stephanie Pomboy - I'll take the short-term hit on gold as long as we don't have globomomo WWIII:

Looks like a buying opportunity is approaching. Maybe. It's still way up.