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Two Years is Generous


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2022 Jul 22, 4:18pm   11,529 views  88 comments

by fdhfoiehfeoi   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I think we have months left. Lots have been in our place before, and denied history like many will now. But the arrogance of thinking somehow we're special, that the rules don't apply to us will end bitterly. Prepare while you still can.

"Today the US government’s debt to GDP ratio is about 120% and its budget deficit is forecast to be about 7% of GDP this year A 300 basis point [interest rate] hike should increase the budget deficit to about 11% of GDP. Since 1991, all 18 other governments with deficits exceeding 11% of GDP and debt to GDP ratios exceeding 110% defaulted within two year. Thus, the Fed could soon be trapped: raising rates could trigger default and not raising them could leave inflation unchecked. Similar dilemmas in other countries have often caused extreme crises, e.g., Argentina Brazil, and Venezela; the US may soon join the club.

- Luke Gromen in FFTT Tree Rings, 15 July 2022, quoting Hirschman Capital Year-End 2021 Letter.

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82   WookieMan   2023 Jul 6, 1:38pm  

NuttBoxer says

Along with record number of people quitting and credit card debt going sky high. I trust government job numbers as much as I trust Hunter Biden to watch my coke.

I agree with the Hunter comment. But you're in CA or basically East CA in Yuma. The rest of the country is fine. You're witnessing the collapse of CA, not the United States. CA would be the 5th largest country on the planet as a stand alone. It's going to seem dire when you're living it. I did in IL for about 10-15 years.

At some point even the richest of the rich aren't going to want to be there. Once the real exodus is done CA is toast. The tax revenue will plummet. We're talking 30-50% of state income taxes and other fees. I know you guys love it out there, but it's only going to get worse. Not a little. A lot.
83   Eric Holder   2023 Jul 6, 3:06pm  

Shaman says


Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.


Aaaaand here we are next summer and gas pricise in Europe are lower than prior to the Soviet aggression. No sanctions dropped in meantime.

Uncle Joe (Stalin) was right: nobody is irreplaceable. Especially if your main product is something as crude and unsofisticated as, well, crude oil and natural gas.
84   richwicks   2023 Jul 6, 3:13pm  

Eric Holder says

Aaaaand here we are next summer and gas pricise in Europe are lower than prior to the Soviet aggression. No sanctions dropped in meantime.


How are they cheaper? Though some manipulation in the commodities markets?

It's the WEST that breaks supply and demand rules. It's the WEST that now ignores capitalism and Austrian economics. Supply / Cost / Demand are artificially disconnected. This will just lead to shortages in time.
85   Eric Holder   2023 Jul 6, 3:14pm  

richwicks says


How are they cheaper?


Literally. More supply, more export routes. Cheaper. Fact. No amount of reeeee can change that.

I know, it's unfair to the accolytes of Soviet Inevitabilty*, but real life has this habit of gut-checking ideas.

*)The idea of Soviet Inevitability is that since Soviets always win the best everybody else can do is surrender quickly and on somewhat less horrible terms.
86   stereotomy   2023 Jul 6, 3:24pm  

NuttBoxer says

Funny you bring up mis-labeling. If you read into the case more you'd find the FDA sprays all meat with non-organic chemicals, and it's never labeled anywhere. I'm actually looking for a new source of local meat because my current CSA will only guarantee no FDA if I buy whole animal.

Same boat here. Every place I move to, I try to find local farmers that optimally sell by the cut or, worst case, by the quarter. I've seen what good meat does for a body. My son is growing like a weed - he eats 1-2 lbs of meat a day.
87   Onvacation   2023 Jul 6, 3:25pm  

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88   fdhfoiehfeoi   2023 Jul 7, 9:03am  

stereotomy says

Same boat here. Every place I move to, I try to find local farmers that optimally sell by the cut or, worst case, by the quarter. I've seen what good meat does for a body. My son is growing like a weed - he eats 1-2 lbs of meat a day.


My wife was moving away from a lot of animal products, but noticed some health issues. Now that she's eating more meat, and drinking bone broth daily, she has more energy, sleeps better, and hair and nails have improved.

Still using my same CSA farmer. His FDA processing facility only sprays citric acid. And most important test, we always feel great eating meat from his farm.

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