Respected analyst predicts 'overvalued' San Francisco Bay Area home prices may drop
invite response
2022 Aug 25, 5:02pm 761 views 6 comments
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3
BayArea
2022 Aug 25, 10:01pm
BayArea
2022 Aug 25, 10:01pm
Betting against the continuous growth of US real estate and stock market probably won’t get you very far.
4
Blue
2022 Aug 25, 11:16pm
BayArea says
Especially after "Inflation acceleration act of 2022", "student loan forgiveness super inflation act" along with every act in $Ts spending.
Betting against the continuous growth of US real estate and stock market probably won’t get you very far.
Especially after "Inflation acceleration act of 2022", "student loan forgiveness super inflation act" along with every act in $Ts spending.
5
WookieMan
2022 Aug 26, 3:41am
WookieMan
2022 Aug 26, 3:41am
I just don't think cities are going to do well above 200k+ population. There's no point to live in them anymore. At least for white collar workers.
Crime is higher in most cities. The cost of living is 10-50% higher than even living 50-100 miles away in a rural area. Public transit is shit in most cities, so you still need a car. Dudes don't need to be in cities with dating and hookup apps. Same with chicks. Cities are dirty, even the nice ones, besides some entertainment or tourist area. Zero sense of community. And generally corrupt politicians on city councils.
I think some cities will be fine, but they'll drag down the median price nationally and make it look worse than it really is. People are starting building in my town now after literally 2 decades of no new structures/homes. And this is IL where everyone and their mom is leaving the state. People want small towns.
Crime is higher in most cities. The cost of living is 10-50% higher than even living 50-100 miles away in a rural area. Public transit is shit in most cities, so you still need a car. Dudes don't need to be in cities with dating and hookup apps. Same with chicks. Cities are dirty, even the nice ones, besides some entertainment or tourist area. Zero sense of community. And generally corrupt politicians on city councils.
I think some cities will be fine, but they'll drag down the median price nationally and make it look worse than it really is. People are starting building in my town now after literally 2 decades of no new structures/homes. And this is IL where everyone and their mom is leaving the state. People want small towns.
6
pudil
2022 Aug 26, 9:09am
A weird thing I’ve been noticing about the midsized cities is that they’ve become ghost towns. I’ve been to Raleigh and Savanna over the summer and the number of people there was way down. I think with remote work everyone has left.
The San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley area — lumped together by Moody’s Analytics — has home prices that are overvalued by 11.4%, according to data by Moody's Analytics. Other parts of what's broadly considered the Bay Area, excluding Vallejo (where homes are overvalued by nearly 20%), see smaller or comparable percentages.
Outside the Bay Area, particularly in areas that have had an influx of residents, home values are reportedly inflated. In the Santa Cruz-Watsonville area, homes are overvalued by nearly 36%. And in Reno, prices are 39% higher than expected. That’s not to mention Boise, Idaho, and Austin, Texas, which have seen overvaluations of 72% and 61%, respectively. (In Boise, Fortune notes, housing prices have already been cut.)
These "overvaluation" numbers don’t necessarily mean that prices will decline, Fortune explains. But when housing markets are no longer booming, as has been the case in 2022 so far, local housing markets with wildly inflated home values (over 25%) do typically experience significant price drops.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/san-francisco-home-prices-reportedly-overvalued-17398683.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight