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WRT Asians sticking to themselves,all I can say is dude…….have you ever lived in a foreign country where your grasp of the language was less than 100% and everything seemed strange? It is not that easy. Cut people some slack.
Wow, I never thought I'd find myself saying this, but... I agree with Deo Vindice 100%. Though I don't mind discussing race/immigration issues (as long as there's an arguable point), this thread has taken on a real nasty edge with regards to asians/Indians.
I've worked in I.T. with/for 1st generation asians and Indians, and in my experience (can't generalize/extrapolate for everybody), they have been no better or worse overall than native-born Americans. Most of the (legal) immigrants I've worked with have been really nice people and not xenophobic, but of course there are always nortable exceptions. Many of the native-born and/or white American bosses I've had, OTH, have been real two-faced a-holes. I've also noticed that after a generation or two, immigrants --regardless of country of origin-- start to think/behave more and more like Americans, so racial nepotism/xenophobia becomes less and less relevant the longer they are here.
My point: it's easy to overgeneralize/stereotype from a few bad experiences. As anyone following this blog for the last few months knows, I am not a fan of illegal immigration or third-world wage arbitration/outsourcing. Even so, let's cut some slack for those who choose to come here LEGALLY and are working hard to follow the rules and respect American culture.
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I think the extent of the real estate bust in the Bay Area will surprise even the pessimists. In addition to the ubiquitous effects of the bursting of the credit bubble, there are a few fundamental factors unique to this area that are all becoming relevant or more powerful at the same time: now.
- the demand overhang is becoming much smaller. I have only anecdotal evidence, but in 2005, the last renters at my workplace have finally caved in and bought. Some bought "before it's too late", but for many, the ultimate trigger was that they married, the babies were coming, and the yuppie life had to come to an end. Life goes on, after all.
- jobs are still leaving the area. There's continuing consolidation in the local industries, in addition to outsourcing. Being present in the Bay Area is just not worth the cost anymore for some employers.
- as soon as the fear of collapsing house prices will start to materialize and the green spots on the weekly SJ Mercury RE appreciation map spread, many of the substantial number of unemployed or "underemployed" folks who have been hanging on by their fingernails and their home equity in the last 5 years will finally pull the trigger and try to sell. Some because they have made the decision to do so, some because they have to.
- people who could afford to live here start facing the grim reality - that quality of life around here ultimately stinks because of the high cost of living, even though the sun is still shining bright and the mountains and the ocean are really purty. Some of these folks will pack up and leave.
- most of the valley was built out in the 60s and 70s, and the original owners are now old. They or their heirs will sell their houses over the next decade, which will generate that "extra something" in supply that's been missing so far.
- last but not least, the super-low interest rates were coming to the rescue just as the Bay Area was about to correct for the local real estate excesses created in the internet bubble era. So the anxiously expected correction never happened, and that gave buyers that extra "it will never go down" psychological boost, allowing even more outrageous levels of overvaluation.
What do you think? Are these factors significant? Which positive factors could outweigh the negatives? Which ones of the negatives are relatively weak, which ones strong?
Or could it be just like in 2001 - a painful, but short episode of slow sales, high inventory and moderately falling prices, and then it's back to business as usual?
#housing