He makes a bold assumption wrt loss rates but I don't see any support for it. It also flies against the military truism of attacking force always suffering bigger casualties especially when storming heavily fortified and/or urban positions.
Great piece, this further develops the FP's plausible scenario where the professionalized portion of the Russian Army was unable to present the depth of logistics and follow on units to hold the territory they took.
I did read somewhere in Bahkmut where Militia and Wagner Forces are basically just constantly probing into the city in every direction, exhausting and running down the Ukrainians while tightening the supply lines (but still giving them an easy out).
long article - author really gets into the weeds
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers