patrick.net

zzyzzx says

My homeowners insurance is now $5000/yr, flood $6000/ yr.

A $5000 annual HO-3 policy means their home is likely worth at least $800,000. And they have to live within a 100 year flood plain or zone to be paying $6000 a year for flood insurance.

I pay $1550 a year for HO-3 and $500 a year for FEMA flood insurance for a $300,000 townhome (3bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage) built in 2016 and is 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle.

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The problem with central and north Florida lofty RE prices. Their market is based on those in the big markets, selling their house for big profits, and their exit plan it to move to a Central or North Florida town. But what has been attractive about that model was the retiree atmosphere there, and those houses have been below 200K. When it gets over that, what in the fuck am I going to sell my South Florida crap shack for $500 to $700K only to have to move to a back water Central Florida town and have to pay $500 to $700?

Exactly, TPB.

We're in the denial phase, where homesellers and especially "I wanna downsize and retire" types are hoping things "Get back to normal" over the next year with the interest rates.

In about 6-12 months, it'll be panic phase, as housesellers start cutting 5% a month to try to be first to dump.

There is no housing shortage in the mid/upper tiers. All the shortage is in 2 bed, 1-1.5 baths. The housing stock no longer reflects modern needs.

SINK/DINK/SMOKEM millfucks and empty nest boomers don't need more than 2-3 beds. Most of the zero lots and the old 60s-2000s era suburban homes are designed for 4-person families.

SMOKEM: Single Moms One Kid Entering Middleage

By 2030, 40% of Women over 30 will be single and childless, and 30% will be SMOKEM

cisTits says

in a job market that is collapsing harder than it is for tech.

If you can't get a job you're a common retard. That's all. Companies are paying bonuses even if you're not in the field or have a college degree. They need humans to work. I can sign a $10k bonus offer in a week for a whole plethora of real, non-BS jobs. Most tech jobs are shit so managers don't have to do the work.

Some of you guys live in la la land. Maybe it's your region or you're bitching about your luck. I think pretty much most users here (not all) are within 100 miles of a coast. You don't live in the reality the rest of the country does.

No one needs to move besides for work. Most mortgages outside of the last year are all still low interest or paid off. So even if they have to sell they'll be fine. Sales volume drops when interest rates rise. I mean come on, this isn't brain surgery. Investors won't sell because they're cash flowing, so just keep the building/unit/commercial space. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=122RU




https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

The prices are crashing in YOUR location. Just because you're down on your luck value wise in your area and don't have the cash to make a move, doesn't mean people aren't doing well elsewhere. We're literally below the inventory trend line in fucking spring selling season to get in a house by summer and a touch above the trend line for median sales price.

IL had its exodus. You guys in CA are just starting to feel it. Sorry. It's not that way everywhere else. Interest rates will stall appreciation, but this isn't a crash unless Biden or the FED completely fuck something up. Which is 70% likely. Have the gun powder ready, but this will be nothing like 2006-8. High floor on price drops, if any in most areas.

cisTits says

...no matter how much you try to gaslight it.

Iwog 2.0. Discussing arguments and conflict and not talking about actual facts. There are plenty of jobs out there. RE brokers, mortgage brokers, etc. will be just fine because 80% of them make dick. The top performers bring up the average. Here's the reality: https://www.vaned.com/blog/real-estate-agent-salary/

Living commission to commission is a miserable life. I watched it for 15 years. 80-90% of brokers make shit money. 10% maybe break 6 figures after paying the broker split, marketing, MLS fees, etc. Most would have been better off at McDonalds.

You're clearly bitter about something. No one is gaslighting. The top 10% WANT shit to hit the fan. If you can last through a downturn your job becomes massively easier moving forward in RE. But what do I know.... Didn't live it or anything.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-out-sync-rest-us-1880203

Florida's Housing Market Is Out of Sync With Rest of US

Florida is leading the rise in active property listings across the country, according to the latest data from real-estate services firm Redfin, with the total supply of homes for sale in places like Cape Coral climbing more than 75 times faster than the national average between January and February.

zzyzzx says

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-out-sync-rest-us-1880203

Florida's Housing Market Is Out of Sync With Rest of US

Florida is leading the rise in active property listings across the country, according to the latest data from real-estate services firm Redfin, with the total supply of homes for sale in places like Cape Coral climbing more than 75 times faster than the national average between January and February.

Yup. Inventory. Has this not been mentioned before....?? Boomers and snowbirds have already moved there permanently. Young people cannot afford it or want to live in geezerville. Won't be a crash because of no income tax, but FL has some future issues coming.

WookieMan says

Yup. Inventory. Has this not been mentioned before....?? Boomers and snowbirds have already moved there permanently. Young people cannot afford it or want to live in geezerville. Won't be a crash because of no income tax, but FL has some future issues coming.

That is a good post, zzyzzx

True Wookie, but I think Florida panhandle will fare the best in Florida because of various reasons.

One is that it is a 1 day drive to many major metro areas like Nashville, Atlanta, etc.

Its about 900 miles from Chicago to Panama City Beach, so that could be done in one day based on 14 hours at 65 miles per hour. That makes it within 1 day drive of visiting family like grandchildren.

Also, the beaches are better since they are white sand and the water is emerald averaging about 50 feet visibility.

Also I'm seeing more work-from-home residents, and even the candidate (Stuart T.) running for Panama City Beach mayor is a Silicon Valley exec who works from home.

But track the sales trends in Panama City Beach such as townhome communities like Hathaway Townhomes and Waterfall Townhomes.

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The older homes get flipped and get a premium put on them. The first example house with all white everywhere is a dump with staged images.
Boomers cash out and pay all cash on their forever house and there are millions of them doing. IMO anywhere near the coast you have too many people and to much demand. 40yrs in Anaheim we had enough shit, Chinese techies buying everything in site at whatever price. The more money the government prints the more cash people will end up with except for the retires fixed income.

It can by cheap in Florida you just have to go outside the line of commuting like anywhere.

zzyzzx says

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-out-sync-rest-us-1880203

Florida's Housing Market Is Out of Sync With Rest of US

Florida is leading the rise in active property listings across the country, according to the latest data from real-estate services firm Redfin, with the total supply of homes for sale in places like Cape Coral climbing more than 75 times faster than the national average between January and February.

WookieMan says

Yup. Inventory. Has this not been mentioned before....?? Boomers and snowbirds have already moved there permanently. Young people cannot afford it or want to live in geezerville. Won't be a crash because of no income tax, but FL has some future issues coming.

What goes up, comes down - especially in Florida. Each time the developers, real estate agents, and homeloaners deny the obvious until it's more than obvious.

Inventory is starting to skyrocket and rents are down almost 10% YoY generally in the state.

The FL State Condominium Act is resulting in 25-30 year old buildings from the 80s and 90s being forced to inspect and add to reserves. Grouchy Grandpas can't bully or control condo boards and push it down the line anymore by law. The Result is either exploding condo fees or big 5 figure one-time assessments, then the issue of telling a buyer the building needs major structural work in the next decade and the condo fees are doubling from $300 to $600, or the seller has to give up $20k to cover the assessment.

Another $300/month when you're already covering a big 7% mortgage payment on $300k is a killer.

When Condos get sick, SFH gets a nasty sneeze.

Everybody knows it's the peak.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell back to 147.2 (1985=100) in February from 154.9 in January. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—slipped to 79.8 (1985=100), down from a revised 81.5 in January. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals recession ahead.

“The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.”

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

AD says

True Wookie, but I think Florida panhandle will fare the best in Florida because of various reasons.

It should be fine, but there are sections at risk. St. George Island I think might take a beating at some point. Places like Pensacola, Panama City, Navarre, Destin, etc. along the coast should do okay.

The drive is one thing, which I've done at least 20-25 times, but as much as people crap on flying, you have Pensacola, Destin and Panama City airports. So combined with airfare it's going to be a popular spot. I know I love it. We're going to central FL this year for spring break. My mom and sister will be in Navarre Beach next week.

Weathers not looking the best for us, but whatever. Better than 55ºf and windy. Just get me out of IL. Pays well, people near me are good, but it's as bland as can be. Why we travel so much.

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Rent is at best stabilizing in Panama City area ... I've noticed that its a lot easier to be a renter now as they are still charging 2021 rates

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looks like rent is going down even in the nicer part of the Florida panhandle

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Panama City Beach down about 3% from peak prices set July 2022. Consider also income has gone up about 10%.
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In Bradenton, FL currently. Haven’t looked at real estate but I can tell when an area goes south. Pretty normal here. Didn’t see a lot of for sale signs.

We’ll see over the few days. Our Orlando leg seemed pretty normal considering the Disney backlash. Every chair was taken at Typhoon Lagoon waterpark. Not a super warm day either.

I don’t frequent this part of FL too often, but the vibe is good. I know some are tourist but have noticed they’re pretty fat in this part of FL. Unattractive 20-35 year olds. I think the chicks that age from TN, AL, GA, MS all drive to rich parents rental properties in the panhandle and not this far south. Or go to Miami.

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https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/01/us/surfside-champlain-towers-condo-board-members-quit/index.html

See above. In October 2018 the engineer who inspected Champlain Towers in Surfside (Miami Beach) said that they needed major structural repair.

In September 2019 the HOA President and most of the HOA board resign out of disagreement. They estimated $9 for repairs.

By 2021 the board agreed to $15 million for starting the repairs.

They waited at least 3 years to make those repairs ? If they started those repairs in 2019 then it could have prevented the collapse.

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AD says

See above. In October 2018 the engineer who inspected Champlain Towers in Surfside (Miami Beach) said that they needed major structural repair.

In September 2019 the HOA President and most of the HOA board resign out of disagreement. They estimated $9 for repairs.

Five members of the Champlain Towers South condo association’s seven-member board – including its president, Anette Goldstein – decided to resign in the fall of 2019, when the association was debating multimillion-dollar repairs, the Washington Post reported, citing board meeting minutes and Goldstein’s resignation letter.

I bet a lot of the other condo association seven-member board had something in common with Anette.

zzyzzx says

I bet a lot of the other condo association seven-member board had something in common with Anette.

Well man, its the Miami metro area so its like you asking if there are any soul food restaurants in Atlanta or south Chicago, or kosher delis in Hollywood or Los Angeles :-/

Its just that there is a relative decrease in their demographic size. Look at the Presidential vote for Palm Beach County in 1988 to 2000.

Then examine how it was in 2020 for the Presidential race and also the Governor's race in 2022, particularly for Palm Beach County.

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As predicted about 2 years ago with the insurance legislation signed by Governor DaSantis.

The governor even stated he expected to see more insurance companies to enter the Florida insurance market when the legislation was being debated in the state house and senate.

https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/8-new-property-insurance-companies-approved-to-enter-florida-market

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https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-slashed-multiple-cities-1887185

Florida House Prices Slashed in Multiple Cities

Some prices are being slashed by sellers in Florida at a much faster pace than in the rest of the country, according to the latest data from online platform Zillow.

February data released by the real estate brokerage show that 33 percent of home listings in the Tampa metropolitan area had a price reduction in the same month—the highest number for a metropolitan area in the entire country and up 3.7 percent compared with a year before. At the national level, 20.1 percent of home listings had price cuts, up 2 percent from a year ago.

Headline should probably say match instead of exceed:

AD says

looks like rent is going down even in the nicer part of the Florida panhandle

Back to normal! $1500 in Orlando for a 2 bed. Two years ago it was close to $2000. $1250 would be pre-COVID, I'd be surprised to see it go that low given costs and inflation increases.

zzyzzx says

Five members of the Champlain Towers South condo association’s seven-member board – including its president, Anette Goldstein – decided to resign in the fall of 2019, when the association was debating multimillion-dollar repairs, the Washington Post reported, citing board meeting minutes and Goldstein’s resignation letter.

I posted that story. The board was in favor of an assessment for structural repairs. Then some smartass owner came in to the meeting and yelled about fixed income and not being necessary right now, and the property owners themselves agreed with him and voted against the assessment.

The President resigned in disgust that the majority of owners voted against the structural repair work and was frustrated that with an entire year of hearings and reviews over the damage and expense required to fix it, nobody showed up or expressed concerns until the day of the final vote.

So Ms. Goldstein was for fixing the problem.

A year after a 2018 engineering report showed the Champlain Towers South condo was in dire need of extensive structural work, squabbling about what to do next led to board resignations, inactivity and confusion that delayed repairs. The cost, which at the time would have been an estimated $9 million, skyrocketed over the next few years. In an internal letter obtained by The Washington Post dated Sept. 4, 2019, Champlain Towers South Condo Association president Annette Goldstein announced she was quitting as the board’s president, citing frustration over the inability to proceed with the work. Five other members of the seven-person board quit later that fall. “We work for months to go in one direction and at the very last minute objections are raised that should have been discussed earlier and resolved right in the beginning,” Goldstein wrote in a letter sent to all 135 unit owners.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article252505623.html#storylink=cpy

Sorry, that JQ puzzle piece can't be trimmed; it just don't fit! Although in fairness it was probably some other cheap Brooklynite that marshalled the against repairs/assessment vote. But that just proves that the magik Jew telepathy command broadcast tower doesn't exist

zzyzzx says

Some prices are being slashed by sellers in Florida at a much faster pace than in the rest of the country, according to the latest data from online platform Zillow.

February data released by the real estate brokerage show that 33 percent of home listings in the Tampa metropolitan area had a price reduction in the same month—the highest number for a metropolitan area in the entire country and up 3.7 percent compared with a year before. At the national level, 20.1 percent of home listings had price cuts, up 2 percent from a year ago.

Have you seen the SW, like Port Saint Joe and Clearwater? Collapsing.

According to my understanding, one of the big issues facing the FLA real estate market is the dramatic increase in home/flood/hurricane insurance, that is, if you can even find a policy to purchase. Many FLA insurance companies have either pulled up stakes or have gone out of business. Add to that the big increases in property taxes and maintenance fees for Condos and FLA real estate loses a lot of its appeal. All of that should result in an ongoing negative impact on prices.

RayAmerica says

one of the big issues facing the FLA real estate market is the dramatic increase in home/flood/hurricane insurance

https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/8-new-property-insurance-companies-approved-to-enter-florida-market

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We're having some insurance cancellations in CA. State Farm has all but pulled out. Mostly fire risk.
Thanks, PG&E!

rocketjoe79 says

Thanks, PG&E!

Thanks, Coastie Greens who think Forests don't need management, that prohibited PG&E from trimming back undergrowth and dead branches and trees all set to go up in smoke.

AD,

Thanks for the update ... it appears that the FLA insurance situation is improving.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-slashed-multiple-cities-1887185

Florida House Prices Slashed in Multiple Cities

IMO, FLA could be just the beginning of another real estate collapse along the lines of 2006-2008.

Virtually all of the abuses that led to 2006/8 were amplified during this long, artificial run up in prices. Added to those abuses was nearly a decade of historically low interest rates. We're now witnessing what happens to the real estate market when interest rates increase, and there appears to be no decrease in sight.

zzyzzx says

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-slashed-multiple-cities-1887185

Florida House Prices Slashed in Multiple Cities

But the R/E Experts on PatNet (mostly circa 2022)....

Florida is not going to have a "collapse" in real estate prices, because they've already gone up 100% in a few years.

clambo says

Florida is not going to have a "collapse" in real estate prices, because they've already gone up 100% in a few years.

They won't be the only area to have a collapse. It's going to happen across the board ... IMO.

The worst possible combination for real estate prices:

1) Artificially inflated prices.

2) Historically low interest rates that were artificially kept at those levels for over 10 years.

3) Poor economy, along with high inflation and rising interest rates.

4) Terrible housing market for 1st. time homebuyers. Not only is the inventory low, but the borrowing power for the 1st. timers is extremely poor, as the high paying jobs are simply not there, and, many are saddled with tuition loans, which count against them on the debt side, further diminishing the amount that they can borrow.

5) VERY few 'investors' such as pension funds, insurance companies, etc. that are willing to buy the all-important Mortgage Backed Securities, which provides literally 95+% of all financing for residential real estate.

6) With prices coming down, more and more homeowner's that have mortgages will find that they are 'upside down' on their mortgages. Look for foreclosures to come back in a big way in the next 12-18 months.

RayAmerica says

6) With prices coming down, more and more homeowner's that have mortgages will find that they are 'upside down' on their mortgages. Look for foreclosures to come back in a big way in the next 12-18 months.

So, what about Blackrock and the other corps buying them up? They have to value them mark-to-market on their books, right?

And they are having problems renting them out for what they want/need, especially in Florida

So when do you think there will be a follow up dump onto the market with these properties?

clambo,

What happens to the FLA homeowners if they 'bought' at or near the peak and prices come down to say, 20%, which isn't beyond the realm of possibility at all. For them, it's going to be a 'collapse,' and it will be a potential repeat of '06.

RayAmerica says

What happens to the FLA homeowners if they 'bought' at or near the peak and prices come down to say, 20%

If the homeowner doesn't plan to move, what difference does it make? He has the same payment as before, and his real estate passement may even go down and thus lower his tax. a 2.5% loan at peak price may be pretty much the same payment as a 7.5% loan at that 20% lower price.