patrick.net

Misc says

Looks like the State is on the hook. Just don't expect any timely resolution.

Yes, the state of Florida is the last resort to bail out the property insurance companies. Ovation Insurance does have some protection through reinsurance.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article313193271.html

Summary: Miami’s housing market, after years of rapid price growth, is finally showing signs of cooling. A new real estate index reveals that home prices in Miami-Dade have begun to flatten and even decline in some areas, marking the first sustained slowdown since the pandemic-era boom.

🏠 Key Points from Douglas Hanks’ Miami Herald Article
• Cooling Trend: The real estate index shows Miami housing prices are no longer climbing at the double-digit pace seen in recent years.
• Market Shift: After a “hot run” fueled by migration, investment, and low interest rates, the market is now adjusting to higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures.
• Regional Impact: While Miami-Dade remains one of the nation’s most expensive housing markets, the rate of appreciation has slowed significantly, with some neighborhoods experiencing outright declines.
• Buyer Behavior: Rising mortgage rates and insurance costs are dampening demand, leading to longer listing times and more price cuts.
• Economic Context: The slowdown reflects broader national trends, but Miami’s market is particularly sensitive due to its reliance on out-of-state buyers and investors.

🔎 Why It Matters
• Affordability Relief: For local residents, the cooling may offer some relief after years of surging prices that pushed homeownership out of reach.
• Investor Caution: Speculative buyers may pull back, reducing volatility but also slowing new development.
• Policy Implications: The shift underscores the need for affordable housing initiatives as Miami balances growth with livability.

In short: Miami’s housing market, once red-hot, is now entering a cooling phase, with price growth slowing and affordability pressures reshaping buyer demand.

AD says

with price growth slowing

That still means prices are increasing.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/florida-home-prices-drop-2026-forecast/

As expected, Florida real estate will drop a few percentage points while household income increases 2 to 3% a year. The soaring insurance cost is mostly in the beach high-rise communities as far as complying with state law and property insurance requirements after the Sunrise tower collapse.

Speaking of collapse, a Cold Snap coming around December 9th.

Might get into the 40s and 50s at night in parts of the Panhandle and Central FL!

It'll be interesting whether rock bottom FL wages ($7,000 below national average of $60k) will rise to average US levels, or whether FL housing costs will move closer to the US average (with 7-10% drop needed).

Post-COVID, FL is a mess with 10% below average national worker pay but 7-10% above national average housing costs. Pre-COVID, it was normal as lower than national average wages were offset by lower than average housing. Florida used to have bottom 20% wages AND housing of all states, which cancelled each other out - and far lower prop tax and insurance.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Speaking of collapse, a Cold Snap coming around December 9th.

Might get into the 40s and 50s at night in parts of the Panhandle and Central FL!

It'll be interesting whether rock bottom FL wages ($7,000 below national average of $60k) will rise to average US levels, or whether FL housing costs will move closer to the US average (with 7-10% drop needed).

Its beach weather in Florida panhandle from first week of March to Thanksgiving weekend, or about 9 months.

Whereas in Miami I suspect its beach weather at least 11 months out of year.

The local economic development alliance said similarly that housing costs will stay flat while household income increases 3 to 4% a year.

I'm hearing more locally in Panama City Florida about property and car insurance decreasing, and also property taxes are remaining flat as well.

Gas is around $2.60 a gallon and a dozen eggs are around $2.50 at Publix, all a lot less than during the Birdbrain Biden regime.

Through the end of February, Origins Resort (across the street from beach in west end of Panama City Beach walking distance to Pier Park) is running $45 a night deal (with tax and fees likely more like $70 a night)

All these vacation rentals in Florida panhandle like Panama City Beach that were purchased 2020-2023 likely are offering deals to increase vacancies (and improve solvency) during offseason or non beach season (first week of December to end of February), but at least warm enough to go golfing, fishing, and sailing/boating.

I just saw Annabells Townhomes in Panama City Beach is lowering its 2026 regular assessment by about 8% (from $420 to $386 a month) and it has never had a special assessment. The HOA is run like a condo in regards to ensuring townhomes (i.e., drywall out) and HOA responsible for roof and exterior, in addition it is responsible for garbage, landscaping, roads, etc, as well as has a clubhouse, pool and gym.

And now I see a major condo resort (Treasure Island) on Panama City Beach is lowering its regular assessment by 18.5%. I've noticed a trend in Panama City Beach as far as HOAs lowering assessments.

https://www.clickorlando.com/features/2025/12/11/floridas-not-the-best-place-to-live-study-claims-how-low-does-it-rank/

Florida is ranked 6 and California is ranked 32 as far as best states to live.

Midwest booms as young people love the balance of affordability with good wages and real jobs, don't mind shoveling snow at their age.

Sunbelt suffers housing collapse as prices are still too high relative to local incomes of the working age.

https://www.thedailyupside.com/economics/real-estate/the-us-housing-market-is-bifurcating-by-region/

Sunbelt might recover the end of next year or the year after if the prices continue to rationalize away from COVID fever dreams.

Maybe Mamdani will cause an exodus of NYC firms, with good paying jobs.

FreeAmericanDOP says

Sunbelt suffers housing collapse as prices are still too high relative to local incomes of the working age.

Not case for Panama City Beach as rents are now at 2020 to 2021 levels for townhomes. Also new jobs like "Project Kilowatt" and the aerospace campus are going to add at least 2200 new jobs to the Panama City area.

Also the Florida State teaching hospital down the street from Panama City Beach city hall is almost finished with construction.

I like how Panama City is diversifying its economy and not totally relying on the booming tourism industry.

I gotta sign up for the Reventure App at some point.

But yeah, nice big drops up there. 5% here. Orlando is starting to tank and normalcy return.

American prosperity secret: high, boss cursing wages with labor shortages that make him aggressively pursue mechanization and moan every quitter, and low food and housing costs. Low wages at any cost (but often with expensive housing) is the Turd World Trap

Interestingly, Colorado. Worse than Florida that got mindblowing way out of hand and still has a ways to go as we enter the Boomexit phase and deportations ramp up.

(this is a forecast for next year, based on recent trends)

I would say the Florida TOURISM market is strong, at least by numbers, with a record 34M+ visiting the state.

Rents are collapsing as well. Massive amounts of apartments were built in much of the state.

Countless older Condo buildings on Fannie's blacklist.

Welcome to the permanent plateau of the next decade or so: