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BX Analysis & BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage).....Short BXMT?


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2023 Apr 11, 1:10pm   527 views  6 comments

by 1337irr   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

For giggles I bought one put that expires in May at $14 after their earnings in April on the 26th. I think Blackstone Mortgage is overexposed with office buildings being 40% of their portfolio value. San Francisco's office market doesn't seem healthy. However, I think the serious money was made during Covid and this new work from home era.

These are pages in the annual report that I think are of interest to you all 6, 69, 82 and 87.

https://s26.q4cdn.com/698820489/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/BXMT-2022-10-K.pdf

It seems like there is a conflict of interest with Blackstone Mortgage and Blackstone. Maybe I'm imagining things.

Page 105 says don't buy a put with their dry power....

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001393818/1e768a89-f5d2-48da-a19c-42dc63b45cbb.pdf

...but there is a lot of evidence that says yes...

https://commercialobserver.com/2023/02/blackstone-cmbs-loan-multifamily-special-servicing/

https://commercialobserver.com/2023/03/blackstone-special-servicing-hughes-center/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/blackstone-defaults-on-531-million-nordic-property-backed-cmbs?leadSource=reddit_wall

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradthomas/2019/05/03/blackstone-mortgage-this-k-i-s-s-is-on-my-list/?sh=5275749f2d06

https://www.blackstonemortgagetrust.com/

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592939-blackstone-mortgage-14-percent-yield-but-why-mess-with-the-equity *Good read!!!**

What do you all think?

Comments 1 - 6 of 6        Search these comments

1   AD   2023 Apr 11, 1:27pm  

It peaked around $150 in late 2021. I suspect it will drop to no less than $50. It has more downside risk.

I suspect it will bottom around $60. 2023 is going to be a very difficult year for Blackstone.
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2   1337irr   2023 Apr 11, 1:33pm  

ad says

It peaked around $150 in late 2021. I suspect it will drop to no less than $50. It has more downside risk.

I suspect it will bottom around $60. 2023 is going to be a very difficult year for Blackstone.
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I meant more for BXMT than BX.
3   AD   2023 Apr 11, 1:34pm  

2023's earnings for Blackstone will at best be 50% of its 2018 earnings.

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4   AD   2023 Apr 12, 12:13am  

1337irr says

I meant more for BXMT than BX.


Yes, short the real estate finance company.
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5   AD   2023 Apr 12, 12:14am  

I was looking actually to sell 1 option contract for the $15 Put that expires 19 May.

https://www.stockoptionschannel.com/symbol/bxmt/?symbol=BXMT&month=20230519&type=put&contract=15.00

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6   1337irr   2023 Apr 21, 2:02pm  

We will see what happens on the 26th with earnings. Some office buildings are scary.

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