patrick.net

RedStar says

Those boomers will likely be passing their homes down to their kids. Doesn't mean the kids will sell them. I rent out my inherited home.

It depends. Many of these homes are several states away. If there are siblings, property management costs, etc. it may not make sense. Also many Millennials have debts or just want to have 'more life experiences' and prefer the cash. Not all siblings would prefer the rental income to a cash injection.

We're talking millions of homes.

(hype) SILVER TSUNAMI!! (/hype)

One thing I remember in 2006 was how many were certain there could be no crash, low inventory, high demand, high household formation rates, etc.

Big_Johnson says

It won’t even be a silver wave. Tsunami is a Zerohedge perma bear hype term.

Remember the forbearance foreclosure tsunami?

Let’s do this, wake us up when inventory goes back to historical trend of 2.5M first before you spread the perma bear-zerohedge nonsense.

Buy now or be locked out FOREVER!!!

I dislike the term "Inventory". If you're only trying to actively sell a fraction of the goods in your warehouse, that's not your "Inventory".

Prices WILL normalize. Count on it. Sell now.

"8x Median Income is Sustainable with 7% interest rates!11!Eleventy!! Forever!"

Big_Johnson says

You can like it or not like or call it something else. Nothing matters except for what’s for sale and you want to measure that and see where we headed.

The trend is your friend until you end.

Big_Johnson says

Remember the shadow inventory narrative of millions of homes that are empty and might come on the market which would crash the price? Every year there is a new narrative (and then every other year an old narrative gets recycled) but none of that nonsense means anything until it actually comes online for sale.

Yes, I remember the 2010s.

Big_Johnson says

The market decides what the price is. At any given time the price is normal.

True if you have a free and open market like Vancouver, Canada. Look at the prices there relative to the median wage. Prices are beyond disconnected or detached from wages and income. That is because of foreign buyers from Asia inflating the housing costs, and I think this applies in some ways to Southern California and San Fransisco Bay Area.

Big_Johnson says

The market decides what the price is. At any given time the price is normal. There is no speculation or loose lending standards in this current market. And there is no forced selling. This could go on forever. No homeowner is hurting. Quite the opposite. Any homeowners “feels” like sitting on a goldmine with the locked in low rates.

You just contradicted yourself.

By that metric the prices in 2004-2008 and 2010-2018 were normal, too ;)

When Betty is 74 and can't walk up the stairs of her Tampa townhouse from a busted hip and needs an oxygen tank on top of that, her Feelz about locking in a low interest rate don't matter. It's necessity, not "look at my low rate when my late husband and I brought this place in 2011 when he turned 65 and were found our retirement home"

It doesn't matter what the interest rate is, the percentage of goods in the warhouse up for sale ("Inventory"), the multiplier of annual median income to housing, the unemployment rate, how the homebuyer feels about the deal they got years ago, or any thing else.

There will be many Bettys in the next few years.

Big_Johnson says

2004-2008 was a ONCE in a lifetime event. Anyone who could fog a mirror could buy a home back then. This will never ever be allowed in the US. We have very strict lending standards…..I know from experience….I bought several homes.

Big_Johnson says

The market decides what the price is. At any given time the price is normal

Was the 2010s normal? How about the early 80s? The Levittown explosion of the 50s and 60s? All Normal?

Nobody went broke from taking profits too soon!

Big_Johnson says

At any given point in time the price is normal and 2008 was a once in a lifetime event. Forget about 2008. The world of RE couldn’t be more different than 2008.

"It's normal, except when my preferred investment vehicle market went loco."

"It's different this time."

We just need "Permanent Plateau" for the trifecta of famous last words.

Big_Johnson says

I remember when people called me crazy for buying bitcoin

Full stop.

Big_Johnson says

Same with RE. People told me I will lose my equity when I bought my most expensive house in 2020. Now 2020 is dirt cheap and I made over 500k on that house alone.

I remember when angry mortgage brokers and Realtors would call in and demand people stop "talking down the market and hurting people" and that "Realtors and Mortgages were DA MOST REGULATED BUSINESSES EVA"

It's never been a better time to buy a Home(tm)

With rates as low as 14.5%!! - Phil Rizzuto, Spokesperson, "The Money Store" 1984

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMpC5eRMcEg

Big_Johnson says

And the last comment about best time to buy a house doesn’t make sense either.
Maybe it’s a great time for me to buy a house if I have the cash and want to hold long term. Maybe it doesn’t make sense for Jack Meyer because he is planning on only living in a certain place for 2 years before he moves. it always depends on each individual to make the decision. Just because some people can’t afford a house doesn’t mean there arent other people where money is burning a hole in their pocket.

Wow, I thought I'd never see Big_Pretender utter some truth. You've been saying since the beginning of this thread that everyone should buy a house no matter what. You've done nothing but cheerlead everyone into buying.

Schokolade says

Onvacation says

Big_Johnson says

Don’t be ashamed of your age.

I'm not going hold your immaturity and lack of experience against you.

When someone tells you this

“I remember when I could go to the store and buy a can of soda for a nickel. Of course minimum wage was $1.60 and a decent salary was $10,000 a year”

A millennial like me is interested in learning when that was. You must be very old to have experience that. I don’t see anything wrong with asking about your age. The fact that you get so offended tells me you might be a woman. Again, not that there is anything wrong with that. She won’t tell….that’s fine…thinking she must be in her late 80’s, early 90’s.

He's not that old man. The oldest boomers are maybe about to turn 80 and not out on treks and sailing boats. Also, you got Reaganed and didn't appear to even know it.

Schokolade says

I remember when people called me crazy for buying bitcoin at 4K. Then they said bitcoin will never be at 20k again and they said I must have bought at 20k (which I never did). Now they are all silent. They really thought bitcoin will never be at 20k again. Of course now they would say you must have bought at 67k. Lol

The haters and perma bears move the goal post every year.

Same with RE. People told me I will lose my equity when I bought my most expensive house in 2020. Now 2020 is dirt cheap and I made over 500k on that house alone.

Some people never learn and will hope for this magic RE crash until their last breath.

Ironically, I'm building duplexes.

Another name change?

Schokolade says

Who doesn’t like Schokolade ?

Schokolade gives some people migraines.

Bump, bursting yet?

AmericanKulak says

.

3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhomes renting for about $2200 a month in Panama City Beach, FL, see below link:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1751-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/125963181_zpid/

average working class pay is around $16 an hour on the beach ... I noticed 3 different people renting these type of townhomes, so that no more than about 32% of monthly salary goes to rent and utilities (water/sewer, electric, and internet)

This townhome unit was sold about 15% below initial asking price (and average "peak sales price" for this style townhome), and could easily rent for $2700 per month :

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1786-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/195623083_zpid/

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