patrick.net

based on valuation, seems like a lot of downside risk

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

,

Not to brag (ok I'm bragging a little) between paying down debt aggressively (mortgage), growth and contributions to my 401(k) and a bit of appreciation on said home (bogus number to be sure) I'm up 15% so far thus year. Last year I had 20% growth. Buy and hold index funds and a couple of market specific ETFs in a Roth 401(k).

The couple of times I've tried day trading / short term bets with my "casino" money I've lost bigly.

My goal is to be able to retire at 55... Even though I don't see myself hanging it up that early.

As for 2025 I expect the AI bubble to pop, consumer staples to do well, and depending on who wins in November, defense stocks will go either way

GreaterNYCDude says

As for 2025 I expect the AI bubble to pop

Which stocks ? Nvidia ?

Seems like Amzn and Googl are not as at much risk since they are a lot more diversified and also Googl already has been beaten down due to the recent lawsuit by the federal government against it for being an internet search engine monopoly.

Googl is a very large fixture just based on the language saying "Google it" as far as researching a topic online.

.

.

S&P 500 total return was around 26% in 2023

Year to date, S&P 500 is up 19%

seems like a lot more downside risk now just going by valuations and slowing economic indicators

,

AD says

Which stocks ? Nvidia ?

That was the one that came immediately to mind. But I think even in the news / ad space you'll see far less hype about AI powered widgets in general.

GreaterNYCDude says

That was the one that came immediately to mind. But I think even in the news / ad space you'll see far less hype about AI powered widgets in general.

very true, and Googl and Amzn both have their "AI widgets" and are also "AI companies"

but are very diversified , and I consider them the "major integrateds" as far as "Artificial Intel companies", just like Exxon and Chevron are the "major integrateds" to oil and gas

Googl: Google Assistant on Android devices, Google Gemini, Google Home and Google Nest (i.e., Google Mini device)

Amzn: Alexa on Android and Apple devices, and Amzn devices like Amzn Fire tablets and Echo Show

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!

I hope it does not get to the point that we have to go into extreme homesteading or survivalist mode, like almost out of a Mad Max movie.

That means extreme collapse, and a lot worse than the early 1930s.

.

AD says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!

I hope it does not get to the point that we have to go into extreme homesteading or survivalist mode, like almost out of a Mad Max movie.

That means extreme collapse, and a lot worse than the early 1930s.

.

i’m already homesteading lol. more for hobby reasons, i do enjoy it. it is completely unnecessary and more difficult than not doing it.

The day after the election, my stock portfolio shot up by over $50k. However, it has dropped back down now $40k from that high. I think the Fed decision has a little to do with that, but maybe the rest was just an exuberance reaction by the market.

Anyone else have a similar experience?

HeadSet says

The day after the election, my stock portfolio shot up by over $50k. However, it has dropped back down now $40k from that high. I think the Fed decision has a little to do with that, but maybe the rest was just an exuberance reaction by the market.

Anyone else have a similar experience?

I don't watch it. Causes too much stress. I dump and forget. I'm not in anything remotely risky. Still in 7 figure land. Not complaining for my age. So assuming insolvency doesn't happen with SS we'll have two maxed out accounts, plus savings and assets.

We'll have no problem with $10-15k/mo with no kids. We'll be closer to $2-4k in reality at retirement. We've been planning very well.

It might be safe soon to dump ammo and yams.

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

Permanent portfolio here - PM's, Cash, Treasuries, and Stocks. The funny thing is, in recent times it functions more like a doomer portfolio.This shows how fake and rigged the investment climate is.

Just dropping this here:

https://financology.net/blog/

This is the Finster from iTulip back in the day.

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239676/ishares-msci-poland-capped-etf

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

Polish stocks? Sounds like a joke as in:

How many Pollack stockbrokers does it take to change a light bulb?
Two, one to unscrew and drop it, and another to sell the bulb before it crashes.

stereotomy says

Permanent portfolio here - PM's, Cash, Treasuries, and Stocks. The funny thing is, in recent times it functions more like a doomer portfolio.This shows how fake and rigged the investment climate is.

Your cash should be doing well, especially if you had some CDs reset from the below 1% to the current 4-5%.

zzyzzx says

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239676/ishares-msci-poland-capped-etf

Thanks @zzyzzx I appreciate the tip. Maybe you know some other fund too?

I had some ishares funds years ago and they really pissed me off by paying a large dividend right after I bought in. The price dropped by exactly as much as the dividend of course, and then I was forced to pay taxes on my own money which had simply been given back to me.

Anyone else following in Buffet's footsteps and stashing away some cash? I've been selling indexes into the melt up and waiting for an opportunity to buy back in. Essentially trying time the market, which will probably end badly.

I have MO , it has done well. Also 7 to 10 percent dividend ain't bad. Props to rin for this recommendation

EBGuy says

Anyone else following in Buffet's footsteps and stashing away some cash?

I am letting dividends pile up in a MMSA that pays about 4%. Where are you keeping your cash while you wait for the indexes?

I use Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for some money.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/

But I think the rate kinda sucks, like 3.5%

Patrick says

But I think the rate kinda sucks, like 3.5%

Recently rates for MMSA and CDs have fallen to make that 3.5% competitive.

Reply to Headset:
I saw my accounts rise from the day before the election, and the next few days.
It's possible, although maybe not so likely, that stocks rise 20% next year.

clambo says

I saw my accounts rise from the day before the election, and the next few days.

Wow, you pick 'em better that I do. Mine fell from that Nov 6th high starting on Nov 8th and trended down since, taking back $40k from that $50k gain. If someone somewhere had to do an RMD from an IRA, the day after the election would have been the day to do it.