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2024 where to invest


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2023 Dec 27, 3:15pm   9,359 views  202 comments

by KgK one   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Housing and stocks can crash in 2024.

Gold holds value but no return.

Berkshire may be good investment

Amazon n microsoft keeps monopolizing so they will do well

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146   WookieMan   2024 Mar 17, 4:27pm  

Misc says

The funny thing about investors is that they would rather lose money in the market than pay even 25% of that amount in taxes.

They've got a goofy way of looking at things.

My dad... 1031'd multiple properties into more. Housing crash hit and he lost his ass. That's why they call it paper assets. I think he was at $8-10M net worth on paper. He had to BK, but as an attorney played some tricks to swap the properties to my mom's name.

After he died in 2019 she slowly sold off what was left. Got roughly $1M net and she has a $90k COL increase pension and a paid off house. So yeah, she's a widow and basically rich. My sister has her issues, but she's an attorney and makes good money. She's a widow as well. So my mom doesn't need to do shit for us. She does take my sister on vacations. I don't care. Her dead husband was a piece of shit.

Real estate as an investment is pretty risky to be honest. Most talk a big game, but you don't see their tax returns. Most RE inventors that said they were doing well were just borrowing from the equity from preforming properties and are leveraged to the gills. It's your own self made pyramid scheme. Sure you can borrow tax free or avoid cap gains taxes, but at some point shit hits the fan. I saw it plenty of times in my 15 years, plus my own dad.

If I could turn back the clock I'd have done commercial RE. Not store fronts. Warehouse and manufacturing. Still thinking of doing it. Just have to build the most expensive house in town.... FML. We need a bigger house though.
147   clambo   2024 Mar 18, 6:02am  

My friend owns a commercial building in Fremont, California.
It's straddling the Hayward Fault; someday it will be torn in two like a piece of paper. When? Nobody knows.
During the "pandemic" California law prevented him from evicting anyone; he immediately had deadbeat tenants who just refused to pay him.
Did he still owe property tax? Of course he did.

To beat a dead horse; if you want capital appreciation, buy a stock mutual fund. If you want income, there are funds whose objective is income.
You can get income from real estate in an REIT and not have to seek tenants or fix toilets.
148   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 18, 10:43am  

stfu says

If you had to pick any combination of the following 3 ETF's, where would you invest this chunk right now?

1) IUSG iShares Core S&P US Growth
2) SCHB Schwab US Broad Market
3) SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity


Depends on how old you are. If nearing retirement or in retirement pick #3.
149   Rin   2024 Mar 18, 12:19pm  

zzyzzx says


stfu says

If you had to pick any combination of the following 3 ETF's, where would you invest this chunk right now?

1) IUSG iShares Core S&P US Growth
2) SCHB Schwab US Broad Market
3) SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity

Depends on how old you are. If nearing retirement or in retirement pick #3.


There's still a Dogs of the Dow ETF, DJD, where the top 10 Dow stocks are chosen by dividend yields and thus, provide income. And then, they add a few other div stocks to round out the portfolio.
150   AD   2024 Sep 17, 11:52pm  

based on valuation, seems like a lot of downside risk

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

,
151   GreaterNYCDude   2024 Sep 18, 6:54am  

Not to brag (ok I'm bragging a little) between paying down debt aggressively (mortgage), growth and contributions to my 401(k) and a bit of appreciation on said home (bogus number to be sure) I'm up 15% so far thus year. Last year I had 20% growth. Buy and hold index funds and a couple of market specific ETFs in a Roth 401(k).

The couple of times I've tried day trading / short term bets with my "casino" money I've lost bigly.

My goal is to be able to retire at 55... Even though I don't see myself hanging it up that early.

As for 2025 I expect the AI bubble to pop, consumer staples to do well, and depending on who wins in November, defense stocks will go either way
152   AD   2024 Sep 18, 10:01am  

GreaterNYCDude says

As for 2025 I expect the AI bubble to pop


Which stocks ? Nvidia ?

Seems like Amzn and Googl are not as at much risk since they are a lot more diversified and also Googl already has been beaten down due to the recent lawsuit by the federal government against it for being an internet search engine monopoly.

Googl is a very large fixture just based on the language saying "Google it" as far as researching a topic online.

.
153   AD   2024 Sep 18, 11:59am  

.

S&P 500 total return was around 26% in 2023

Year to date, S&P 500 is up 19%

seems like a lot more downside risk now just going by valuations and slowing economic indicators

,
154   GreaterNYCDude   2024 Sep 18, 10:41pm  

AD says

Which stocks ? Nvidia ?

That was the one that came immediately to mind. But I think even in the news / ad space you'll see far less hype about AI powered widgets in general.
155   AD   2024 Sep 19, 9:33am  

GreaterNYCDude says

That was the one that came immediately to mind. But I think even in the news / ad space you'll see far less hype about AI powered widgets in general.


very true, and Googl and Amzn both have their "AI widgets" and are also "AI companies"

but are very diversified , and I consider them the "major integrateds" as far as "Artificial Intel companies", just like Exxon and Chevron are the "major integrateds" to oil and gas

Googl: Google Assistant on Android devices, Google Gemini, Google Home and Google Nest (i.e., Google Mini device)

Amzn: Alexa on Android and Apple devices, and Amzn devices like Amzn Fire tablets and Echo Show
156   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Sep 19, 10:23am  

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!
157   AD   2024 Sep 19, 12:11pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!


I hope it does not get to the point that we have to go into extreme homesteading or survivalist mode, like almost out of a Mad Max movie.

That means extreme collapse, and a lot worse than the early 1930s.

.
158   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Sep 19, 12:49pm  

AD says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!


I hope it does not get to the point that we have to go into extreme homesteading or survivalist mode, like almost out of a Mad Max movie.

That means extreme collapse, and a lot worse than the early 1930s.

.


i’m already homesteading lol. more for hobby reasons, i do enjoy it. it is completely unnecessary and more difficult than not doing it.
159   HeadSet   2024 Nov 15, 8:47am  

The day after the election, my stock portfolio shot up by over $50k. However, it has dropped back down now $40k from that high. I think the Fed decision has a little to do with that, but maybe the rest was just an exuberance reaction by the market.

Anyone else have a similar experience?
160   WookieMan   2024 Nov 15, 9:03am  

HeadSet says

The day after the election, my stock portfolio shot up by over $50k. However, it has dropped back down now $40k from that high. I think the Fed decision has a little to do with that, but maybe the rest was just an exuberance reaction by the market.

Anyone else have a similar experience?

I don't watch it. Causes too much stress. I dump and forget. I'm not in anything remotely risky. Still in 7 figure land. Not complaining for my age. So assuming insolvency doesn't happen with SS we'll have two maxed out accounts, plus savings and assets.

We'll have no problem with $10-15k/mo with no kids. We'll be closer to $2-4k in reality at retirement. We've been planning very well.
161   zzyzzx   2024 Nov 15, 9:21am  

It might be safe soon to dump ammo and yams.
162   Patrick   2024 Nov 15, 9:23am  

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.
163   stereotomy   2024 Nov 15, 10:59am  

Permanent portfolio here - PM's, Cash, Treasuries, and Stocks. The funny thing is, in recent times it functions more like a doomer portfolio.This shows how fake and rigged the investment climate is.

Just dropping this here:

https://financology.net/blog/

This is the Finster from iTulip back in the day.
165   HeadSet   2024 Nov 15, 12:20pm  

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

Polish stocks? Sounds like a joke as in:

How many Pollack stockbrokers does it take to change a light bulb?
Two, one to unscrew and drop it, and another to sell the bulb before it crashes.
166   HeadSet   2024 Nov 15, 12:25pm  

stereotomy says

Permanent portfolio here - PM's, Cash, Treasuries, and Stocks. The funny thing is, in recent times it functions more like a doomer portfolio.This shows how fake and rigged the investment climate is.

Your cash should be doing well, especially if you had some CDs reset from the below 1% to the current 4-5%.
167   Patrick   2024 Nov 15, 1:45pm  

zzyzzx says

Patrick says


I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.


https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239676/ishares-msci-poland-capped-etf


Thanks @zzyzzx I appreciate the tip. Maybe you know some other fund too?

I had some ishares funds years ago and they really pissed me off by paying a large dividend right after I bought in. The price dropped by exactly as much as the dividend of course, and then I was forced to pay taxes on my own money which had simply been given back to me.
168   EBGuy   2024 Nov 15, 3:02pm  

Anyone else following in Buffet's footsteps and stashing away some cash? I've been selling indexes into the melt up and waiting for an opportunity to buy back in. Essentially trying time the market, which will probably end badly.
169   KgK one   2024 Nov 15, 3:12pm  

I have MO , it has done well. Also 7 to 10 percent dividend ain't bad. Props to rin for this recommendation
170   HeadSet   2024 Nov 15, 3:17pm  

EBGuy says

Anyone else following in Buffet's footsteps and stashing away some cash?

I am letting dividends pile up in a MMSA that pays about 4%. Where are you keeping your cash while you wait for the indexes?
171   Patrick   2024 Nov 15, 3:49pm  

I use Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for some money.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/

But I think the rate kinda sucks, like 3.5%
172   HeadSet   2024 Nov 15, 5:26pm  

Patrick says

But I think the rate kinda sucks, like 3.5%

Recently rates for MMSA and CDs have fallen to make that 3.5% competitive.
173   clambo   2024 Nov 15, 5:50pm  

Reply to Headset:
I saw my accounts rise from the day before the election, and the next few days.
It's possible, although maybe not so likely, that stocks rise 20% next year.
174   HeadSet   2024 Nov 15, 6:48pm  

clambo says

I saw my accounts rise from the day before the election, and the next few days.

Wow, you pick 'em better that I do. Mine fell from that Nov 6th high starting on Nov 8th and trended down since, taking back $40k from that $50k gain. If someone somewhere had to do an RMD from an IRA, the day after the election would have been the day to do it.
175   clambo   2024 Nov 15, 9:09pm  

I actually didn't keep track except for the day before and the day after the election; I didn't look since then so I don't really know.
My post above may be in error.
My results are likely the same as Headset and I haven't noticed.

I'm just happy that my taxes are not going up just yet; taxes have a real impact on my net investment returns.
176   gabbar   2024 Nov 16, 4:14am  

WookieMan says

I'm not in anything remotely risky.

It is said that rich minimize risk while the poor and middle class maximize risk, what do you guys think?
177   SharkyP   2024 Nov 16, 4:56am  

I am up 33% so far, have recently moved much of my money into CEFs
178   clambo   2024 Nov 16, 6:34am  

Once you are rich, you may expect to live well from dividends, interest, rents, business profits, etc. and may avoid risk since you don't need any more capital.

If you want to accumulate more capital, you probably can assume some risk; mutual funds usually help lower risk.

I was determined to avoid being broke during my retirement, which was a terrible thing in my mind; buying stock mutual funds didn't seem nearly risky by comparison to me.

I have a friend down here in Baja Sur Mexico who is English and not well off; because he doesn't have much dough he had hip replacement surgery here, and there were complications. His quality of life is poorer now because he didn't have the money to be in England for 6 months so he could be treated there. Their system has rules about guys coming home after living overseas evidently.

Insurance is for spreading the risk of something to a pool of many other people; statistically this helps lower your risk of ruin.
I applied for a Mexican resident visa for the purpose of buying private health insurance while I'm down there.
179   HeadSet   2024 Nov 16, 10:43am  

gabbar says

It is said that rich minimize risk

For a person to go from poor to rich, some risk taking was in order. For those who married into wealth or inherited it, I suppose those are the rich who avoid risk.
180   HeadSet   2024 Nov 25, 3:21pm  

My stocks have now surpassed the day after election rally. I suppose others on Patnet have the same results. I wonder what is driving the increase.
181   Patrick   2024 Nov 25, 3:32pm  

I'm also way up.

I suppose it's optimism about the economy, but that could be "irrational exhuberance" as Greenspan once said.
182   clambo   2024 Nov 25, 4:22pm  

What is making the stock market exhuberant: 1. the prospect of lower interest rates, especially if Trump gets the economy moving 2. the prospect of tax cuts or no tax increases 3. the prospect of lower oil and energy prices.

Whether the above comes to pass, stock investors like the possibilty of it.
183   EBGuy   2024 Nov 26, 1:47am  

HeadSet says


I am letting dividends pile up in a MMSA that pays about 4%. Where are you keeping your cash while you wait for the indexes?

For the Vanguard account, funds sweep to VMFXX, which is all right by me. ETrade is total sh*t since being bought by Morgan Stanley. I think they sweep to a MS bank account (for you safety! I was told when I called) that pays like .1%. So some of that I put in CLIP (short term treasuries) and the rest to VMFXX. These are all in retirement accounts. YMMV.
184   stfu   2024 Nov 26, 2:19am  

SharkyP says

I am up 33% so far, have recently moved much of my money into CLOs.


I had to look up CLO - first hit was "Collateralized Loan Obligation". How does a retail investor move into CLO's and why would you?

TIA.
185   WookieMan   2024 Nov 26, 2:30am  

clambo says

the prospect of lower oil and energy prices.

This. The inflation has happened already. Prices will stay where they are and margins will increase. Some brands might have to cut prices a bit. In my world Biden actually did a good thing for Trump. Not intentional.

Hauling shit up and down the Mississippi. LA to Denver. Chicago to Indianapolis. New York to Nashville. If that shit gets cheaper to ship profits go up. I know some energy prices are contracted at a set price like airlines and probably ships. But if you're the guy eating ramen noodles because you can't pay for gas, you're going to end up spending more with cheaper gas.

Also profits on LNG being exported to Europe will go up. I don't like predictions, but if Trump is drill baby drill it's gonna be good. Anyone on here have oil fields, fracking, natural gas pipelines around them? Natural gas is a biggie by me. Cleanest sites for a major energy corporation. The environmentalist just need to get over it. Get over the gay and trans shit as well.

Hopefully the Democrats will finally open their eyes (not actually hopeful). You know who benefits from lower gas prices equally? LGTBQ weirdos. Us right wing nut jobs WANT to help you. Have a 401k, lower energy HELPS you. No one is out there beating gays and trans people... besides Juicy Smolett, self inflicted.

I don't trust the MAGA transition is done, but it really is a party of the people. I think people are seeing the Dem party has failed them. R's ain't perfect with the RINO class, but it's better in the House for sure.

Gotta get these geezers out of office, specifically Congress (sorry patnet geezers). Congress should be 35-55 at oldest. I like Clarence Thomas, but he needs to retire so SCOTUS is secure and hope Sotomayor drops dead. Not a threat as I have ZERO interest in going to DC. Been there done that. And whoever plans to run in 2028, plant your seeds now. The Dem bullpen is empty so get a head start. Simple as just stating I want to run. Trump is a lame duck, so it won't bother him.

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