patrick.net

Big changes are underway for U.S. visas, quietly.

The age of cheap, temporary H-1B labor is ending.

The Trump administration isn’t just slowing new approvals.
It’s laying the groundwork to make visa sponsorship financially painful.

Under the H-1B Modernization Rule and USCIS’s new fee schedule, costs are rising.
And now, wage floor increases are back under review, targeting exactly how much employers must pay to keep a visa worker.

This isn’t about protecting workers.
It’s about shrinking demand without needing Congress.

These changes affect existing visa holders.
If your role is up for renewal, transfer, or amendment, your employer may soon face higher wage requirements or new documentation standards.

Promotions may be delayed.
Transfers could be reconsidered.
And companies are already rethinking whether H-1B staffing is worth the long-term cost.

They’re starting to prioritize workers they can keep permanently.
That means U.S. citizens.

If you're on a visa and in a cost-sensitive role, understand this clearly.
The pressure is already building.

Citations in comments.
Shout out to my checkers who caught a citation error. Thx.

The age of cheap, temporary H-1B labor is ending.

Doubtful. I do not think selling Teslas in India is an issue. This sounds like a completely contrived hit piece.

H1B Workers and FICA Taxes (Relation to US-India Context)
The UK-India FTA’s Double Contribution Convention is relevant to your query about H1B workers and FICA taxes, as it mirrors India’s push for social security totalization agreements. However, the UK deal does not directly involve H1B workers or FICA taxes, which are US-specific. Here’s how it connects:

UK NICs vs. US FICA: The UK’s NIC exemption for Indian workers is analogous to a potential US-India totalization agreement that would exempt Indian H1B workers from FICA taxes (7.65% for Social Security and Medicare). India has sought such an agreement with the US to reduce costs for its IT firms, but no deal exists.

US-India Trade Deal Status: No finalized US-India trade deal addresses H1B workers or FICA exemptions. Discussions have been speculative, with posts on X suggesting India seeks FICA exemptions to save $4 billion for its firms, but these lack official confirmation.

UK Precedent: The UK-India deal’s social security provision could serve as a model for US negotiations, allowing Indian H1B workers to pay into India’s social security system instead of FICA, avoiding double contributions. However, US political resistance (e.g., concerns about cheaper foreign labor) makes this unlikely without broader trade concessions.

UK Precedent: The UK-India deal’s social security provision could serve as a model for US negotiations, allowing Indian H1B workers to pay into India’s social security system instead of FICA, avoiding double contributions. However, US political resistance (e.g., concerns about cheaper foreign labor) makes this unlikely without broader trade concessions.