patrick.net

I think the conclusion of the video was not to expect to inherit a home, as aging boomers will need to sell it to pay for nursing home care. That will increase supply, as people have been saying.

anon5525 says

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U12TK2Sa5HQ

When the largest generation, with the biggest birth year yet-unmatched in US history (1957), passes away or downsizes or needs to go into Assisted Living or a Nursing home, and most of that time, the housing will be transfered.

There is no equivalent sized population coming, even IF the current levels of insane hyper-mass migration that exceeds the 1900-1925 time period for quantity or percentage of foreign born continues another decade.

If you don't think population decline or emmigration is a thing, consider Sicily. Where once somebody needed a sack of gold to buy a few acres of olive grove, the government is giving it away in return for a promise to rehab.

Not everybody can or will move from Illinois or New Jersey to a Gated Townhouse Community Arizona or a 55+ RV park near Ocala Villages, FL. Or vice-versa, having a job and already established elsewhere. You don't give up your job as a Evanston, IL teacher making $90k a year to go make $45k a year in Florida. These homes will then go on the market. There aren't enough GenXers, both foreign born and domestic, to make a dent - then add the mild (relative to Millies) but measurable Genx vs. Boomer Wealth Gap.

We built at least 55M housing units since 1991.

2035 is the turning point.

Japan or Canuckistan. Pick your poison. Japan is better.

Yes, the Millennials might inherit the 55+ Gated Community Townhome in Indian Dump, NM

But they don't want to move from Mankato, MN where they are making $90k as an Associate Dean of LGBTQ Student Issues to make $35k as Asst. Manager of the Indian Dump Family Dollar.

Who do they sell or rent to? GenXers, including all immigrants of that age cohort, that would be retirement age are 7% more likely renters over Boomers which speaks to their fiscal shape. And there are millions LESS of them.

How old is the housing the Boomers are living in? I hear from so many on this blog about the "1950s crap shack." It seems that no small number of houses that may have been old when the Boomers acquired them will be so aged as to need replacement.

There are a ton of 1960s Space Race Era Concrete Block Starter Home Ranches around here... And they are only marginally cheaper than the 90s onward larger houses as well as the new ones, though they're also closer to shopping and work, but by a few minutes, not half hours or hours. Nor are they meaningful in terms of School District, since FL is not CA when it comes to School Selection within the County.

Both in Santa Cruz and Tri Valley, we have inheritors (some bequeathers as the elders moved into simpler care housing) all around us. If you scratch people at a gathering, you'll soon find quite a few who inherited their places. The economics with Prop 13 encourage it, though some will cash out and use their filthy Cali lucre to go fuck up a cheaper place.

Inheriting is what makes it affordable to the lucky sperm club. I calculated the costs of living in our modestly upper middle class place in Tri Valley if we bought it new with an 80 percent loan and the prevailing taxes, would be pretty outrageous for the yutes. Berry high salaries with both working required if just jobs, or the family backing or some combo plate.

The Asians obviously are upper caste types and have a lot of parental outpatient care to live there, but also in Santa Cruz anybody younger than 45 who have a medium 1500 sq ft. home are either inheritors, have some fabulous IT job, have cushy teacher's union or government jobs ( police or fire dept) or Mumsy and Dadsy gave them the down payment and help them with their life expenses.

When we have gone out to look at real estate, it is pretty common for a young couple to have Mom or Dad or both in tow, because the parents are going to be the ones footing the bill.

San Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019, Condo Prices to 2015, as Tech Jobs in the City & Silicon Valley Evaporate after Drunken Hiring Binge
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/26/san-francisco-house-prices-drop-back-to-2019-condo-prices-to-2015-as-tech-jobs-in-the-city-silicon-valley-evaporate-after-drunken-hiring-binge/

People generally only spend a few of their last months on earth in nursing homes.

AmericanKulak says

2035 is the turning point.

That’s assuming we still have a country in 2035. But are you saying that housing prices won’t change dramatically until 2035?

clambo says

People generally only spend a few of their last months on earth in nursing homes.

Most people still die at home, but there are old people without owned homes or with mental deterioration requiring more advanced care. There are home nursing and home hospice available.

A guy around the corner in Santa Cruz died and nobody knew for quite some time because he apparently did not have visitors. They called him '4 o'clock' because he always went someplace every day at 4PM come rain or shine right on the clock. It was only after several weeks that neighbors noticed he wasn't leaving at 4 PM any more and called for a wellness check which resulted in discovering his death. After whatever probate when the place sold to another dope smoking SC geezer, my wife still called him 4 o'clock because we didn't know his name.

There will never be any supply as long as the pockets of the SFH Rent seekers are flush. They are willing to bid war the price of RE to keep their houses valued in the millions. It wont matter how much they have to bid, they will get it back by raising the median rent for a 3br house to $5K a month.
Or rent it out to Air B&B for $1200 a night.

Who do you think will win over the last scrap of meat you or the hungry wolf?

Ceffer says

Most people still die at home, but there are old people without owned homes or with mental deterioration requiring more advanced care. There are home nursing and home hospice available.

I think everyone that needed to move, especially boomers did it after the housing crash. Sold their house in 2006 at high prices, college aged kids and bought cheap down south somewhere to retire. https://nypost.com/2024/09/19/real-estate/boomers-own-38-of-americas-homesbut-more-than-half-never-plan-to-sell/#:~:text=Now%20in%20the%20age%20range,up%20to%20a%20certain%20point.

They own 38% of the homes and half don't plan to move. Most are likely paid off by now. There's not some coming crush of inventory to bring down prices. That ship has sailed.

Factor two. A lot of kids of boomers and slightly younger watched their parents lose their home. Home ownership might not be high on the list. So they rent. All the building outside my town is rental developments. In my town you have to build new if you want to live here. Most the existing homes for sale are trash. Work from home so you don't have to move. I just don't see prices moving that much 5% negative or positive in either case. Really a nothing burger if you don't "have" to move.