patrick.net

The report: https://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EVtransition_FuelingCostStudy_10-21-21.pdf

Your converting energy before using it(in almost every case), always a net loss. Also, and this is rarely thought about, electricity is fully controlled and monopolized, way more than oil could ever be. If you eliminate gas vehicles, you centralize even more authority under a single entity, always a recipe for disaster and totalitarianism.

Where will the electricity be generated to supply all these chargers? Likely from on-site gas and diesel generators.

"Sorry. Your social credit score does not allow you any electricity. We will tow your car and sell it at auction."

HunterTits says

They need to be located near the grid. The article gets into that.

Yes, they will be connected to local power. But how is that local power going to supply the extra demand of electric cars? Or is that problem going to be solved by just having a few connections per site, so very few cars can charge per day? Supplemented by on site generators when people complain about long lines.

Swappable pre-charged batteries would be a better choice, provided they really want Americans to keep their driving habits. Instead, mandated all electric cars with long charging times and a shortage of electricity will result in Americans greatly cutting back on driving. I would be more inclined to believe the exclusive electric car if the idea behind the charging stations was to co-locate the charging station with a large solar field that constantly charged swappable batteries.

Also, it is 2022 - where are the self-driving cars that were promised by 2019?

HunterTits says

That's Australia, right? Says Ministry of Health but the phone number is not North American. That rules out Canada.

Interesting that they have 800 numbers there.

It is New Zealand

HeadSet says

Swappable pre-charged batteries would be a better choice

I don't want someone else's used shitty battery.
Now for fleet usage, I could see swappable batteries.

HeadSet says

Also, it is 2022 - where are the self-driving cars that were promised by 2019?

I'd say Tesla is about 95% there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5oOt8gIGU&source=patrick.net

socal2 says

HeadSet says

Also, it is 2022 - where are the self-driving cars that were promised by 2019?

I'd say Tesla is about 95% there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5oOt8gIGU&source=patrick.net

That was impressive, but appears to be dependent on extremely detailed geo data. How did the car know where the 4 way stops were, unless such info was programmed in. Such a reliance on detailed street data would mean that each time an intersection is changed to a a 4 way stop, for example, that street data would have to be propagated to all self-driving cars in the country.

Ceffer says

"Sorry. Your social credit score does not allow you any electricity. We will tow your car and sell it at auction."

... and donate the proceeds to a cause of our choosing.

HeadSet says

That was impressive, but appears to be dependent on extremely detailed geo data.

I believe the other guys like Waymo are the ones that rely on Lidar and geo-mapped routes. They are basically a trolley service on fixed routes.

Tesla is doing it entirely differently than everyone else relying on their "vision system" which uses it's cameras to read traffic lights, signs, stripes, cars, people, obstacles along with it's AI to figure things out in real time. It uses GPS mapping for basic navigation, but it is getting to the point you can pretty much plop a Tesla in the middle of a parking lot or a field and it can figure it's way out. There are over 60,000 beta testers on the road right now feeding the neural network more data every day making the system better and better.

https://nitter.pussthecat.org/Not_the_Bee/status/1505679545965314054?source=patrick.net

Ben Bergman
@thebenbergman
Mar 20
The very rare time as a Tesla owner I wish I could pay $6/gallon for gas and be on my way. We need more super chargers

Lines at the Tesla charging station!

It's not just how much it costs, it's how long you have to wait to fill up.

Patrick says

It's not just how much it costs

Yes it is.

It's always about how much it costs to have a Status Symbol.

Here’s the cost to operate my Tesla 2017 Model S. I shared these numbers with my friends last week. The drop off in usage in 2020 was due to SIP so less driving. The drop off in usage in 2021 was due to charging for free a little more often.

For people who wait in-line to charge, they don’t value their time, and it’s definitely a loss the moment they do that. We still take our gas car for trips to SoCal. Screw free supercharging. Our time is more valuable than waiting in-line and save a few bucks.

Yeah my electric bill hasn't even budged since charging my Prius prime daily. I rarely ever burn fuel now.

Next vehicle is full electric. So much quieter and smoother than ICE cars.

joshuatrio says

Yeah my electric bill hasn't even budged since charging my Prius prime daily. I rarely ever burn fuel now.

Next vehicle is full electric. So much quieter and smoother than ICE cars.

Personally, I think hybrid makes the most sense. Otherwise, we should be able to stack batteries for longer road trips. To carry 300-mile range worth of battery while only operate 30-50 miles each day is carrying a lot of dead weight.

I’m not going back to ICE although I still look at Corvette occasionally. I still have the love for it.

However, I have a feeling I’ll likely get a Roadster in a few years to show the kids in the family that it’s possible if they dare to dream.

joshuatrio says

Yeah my electric bill hasn't even budged since charging my Prius prime daily. I rarely ever burn fuel now.

Next vehicle is full electric. So much quieter and smoother than ICE cars.

The drive of EV's is amazing. Ultimately they're not cheaper. 1,000%. It's negligible on paper, but it's not some massive savings if at all. Literally one of my top 5 friends is a Toyota engineer that I've mentioned before. He's not selling to me and doesn't care. EV's are not cheaper overall. It's math and I trust his word. EV's are not cheaper (yet).

Electric costs money and the car costs more. Higher interest rate with higher purchase price. Ultimately everyone knows their margins as a business. I can promise you a Nissan Versa is substantially more efficient than a Tesla (I like them). This really is indisputable.

I'm a point A to B guy. Move me to where I need to go. I don't need status or the feel good of an EV. It's not cheaper. I don't hate people that get them. As with everything in life it's a decision. Unless you harm my family you're generally good by me.

It costs me about $8.00 to fill up my Model Y when I charge at home during off peak.

If you compare my Tesla to a comparable high-end sedan or SUV (BWM, Mercedes, Volvo etc.) I am pretty sure it costs me less to own and operate.

If you compare my Tesla to a mid-range car like a Honda or Toyota, it is probably about even considering the price of gas in California.

I picked up my new boss from the airport yesterday and the Tesla blew him away. He drives a Porsche Boxster and placed an order for a Model 3 last night.

WookieMan says

I'm a point A to B guy. Move me to where I need to go. I don't need status or the feel good of an EV. It's not cheaper. I don't hate people that get them. As with everything in life it's a decision. Unless you harm my family you're generally good by me.

It's because you're not trying to prove something to others, about how much smarter you are than them, or how much more you can afford to drive a Status Symbol than they can.

Some folks are a bit disingenuous about how cheap it is to charge their EV, at least those who buy their electricity from PG&E (Bay Area). I own a plug-in hybrid so I was keenly interested in saving money by charging it at home. It's true, some folks have boasted on Patrick's blog, those kwatt-hrs are (relatively) cheaper than kwhr for appliances and lighting. But in order to get that rate, I would have to agree to pay HIGHER rates for non-EV charging electrons. Much higher. They leave that part out of their discussion.

RWSGFY says

- Cost of commercial electricity

Lets be clear, the report is mainly about the high cost of commercial charging. Many folks with EVs use them for local trips and charge at home. As the saying goes, YMMV...
While the ChargePoint network allows the property owner where the charger is situated to set rates, Blink charges between $0.04-$0.06 per minute or from $0.39 to $0.79 per kWh, in states where that’s permitted.
Chevrolet says its Bolt EV will get back an average 25 miles of operating range per hour of Level 2 charging. That’s a cost of between $2.40 and $3.60 at the above rates, compared to the EPA’s estimate of $2.15 to drive a gas-powered Chevrolet Cruze for 25 miles.
From https://www.myev.com/research/ev-101/what-it-costs-to-charge-an-electric-vehicle?source=patrick.net

Driving a plug in hybrid with a large 40-50 mile battery is probably the cheapest option if you have a short commute. But not many of those exist anymore.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Driving a plug in hybrid with a large 40-50 mile battery is probably the cheapest option if you have a short commute. But not many of those exist anymore.

Short commutes? Yeah, most of commutes - both short and long - have turned into non-existent commutes, bwahahahaha.

Not sure why some people keep referring to Tesla as a status symbol. Would this make driving a Porsche, MBZ, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Infinity, Cadillac, etc….a status symbol?

It’s simply a car for enjoyment, or to get one from point A to point B. Is making $500k/year a status symbol compared to someone making $100k/year? Is living in a $3M vs a $1M home a status symbol?

Each person enjoys different thing. If one can afford it without breaking the bank, why not? Can’t take anything with us when we’re gone so why not buy something we like, eat what we like, and live in a home we like if we can afford them?

Eman says

I’m not going back to ICE although I still look at Corvette occasionally. I still have the love for it.

Meh, a sprotscar w/o manual trasmission is ghey.

B.A.C.A.H. says

But in order to get that rate, I would have to agree to pay HIGHER rates for non-EV charging electronics. Much higher.

I usually have a seizure whenever I look into the alternative rate schedules. Just playing around with my "heat pump in box" this winter I got bumped up into the next tier above baseline on my vanilla E1 schedule.
So here's the EV2A rate schedule from PG&E (to show that BACAH ain't kidding)...

socal2 says

It costs me about $8.00 to fill up my Model Y when I charge at home during off peak.

If you compare my Tesla to a comparable high-end sedan or SUV (BWM, Mercedes, Volvo etc.) I am pretty sure it costs me less to own and operate.

I'm pretty sure you did not read the article.

Eric Holder says

I'm pretty sure you did not read the article.

I did read it. I leased a Chevy Bolt for the last 3 years before getting a Tesla and am well aware of "MY" driving requirements.

I am able to charge at home 98% of the time at very cheap electricity rates. Over 90% of my driving is less than 50 miles a day so I almost never use superchargers. I take maybe 2 roadtrips a year.

Since my Tesla (which I got before all of the price increases and no incentives) is equal to even a little bit less than an equivalent BMW - I am still saving nearly $200 a month in fuel and no oil changes.

socal2 says

Eric Holder says

I'm pretty sure you did not read the article.

I did read it. I leased a Chevy Bolt for the last 3 years before getting a Tesla and am well aware of "MY" driving requirements.

I am able to charge at home 98% of the time at very cheap electricity rates. Over 90% of my driving is less than 50 miles a day so I almost never use superchargers. I take maybe 2 roadtrips a year.

Since my Tesla (which I got before all of the price increases and no incentives) is equal to even a little bit less than an equivalent BMW - I am still saving nearly $200 a month in fuel and no oil changes.

Then you should know that he did address your corner case there.

Eric Holder says

Then you should know that he did address your corner case there.

I don't think it is a corner case.

Anecdotal only, but every EV driver I know in California relies almost exclusively on home charging and only use the Super Chargers for the occasional road trip.

I would not recommend an EV (at current prices) if the person has to rely on public charging and couldn't charge at home.

Eman says

Not sure why some people keep referring to Tesla as a status symbol.

It is. So are the other models you mention. I simply don't give a shit though. I'm unique in that I give zero shits about gas prices as I don't have to. The higher they are the more my family makes. If someone likes $50-100k cars cool. I have two sitting in the driveway with a 4-Runner and Armada and the 3rd is a $10k Nissan Versa from 2009.

My take is that it's not more efficient or cheaper long term. The only savings is oil changes (air filter, oil and oil filter). And that's 4 times a year for 90% of people if you're going by 3 months.

Function is and always will be the hurdle for EV's for me. I don't see anything in the near future that can 100% charge in 5 minutes or less, drive 300-400 miles, tow up to 10k lbs that's the size of an Armada or Sequoia. I don't want a pickup truck with 3 kids. I'm in the demo that can't and will likely never buy one until the kids move out. We also just like bigger cars for safety. I know it's different in CA, but that's the demo in flyover country outside of cities.

Fact is we cannot rely on electric either. Fuel can be stored to an extent if there was an attack on the country. If we went mostly EV we'd be fucked. I can't rely on the electric grid as someone that loses electric for hours 4-5 times a year.

RWSGFY says

He also gets satisfaction in knowing that driving an EV benefits the environment, he said. 

So it sounds like his main thing is the virtue signaling points no matter how misguided they are...Nothing new here.

Eman says

Not sure why some people keep referring to Tesla as a status symbol.

Virtue signaling points

Eman says

Not sure why some people keep referring to Tesla as a status symbol. Would this make driving a Porsche, MBZ, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Infinity, Cadillac, etc….a status symbol?

Duh.

There were no electric vehicles in Mad Max.

Eman says

Would this make driving a Porsche, MBZ, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Infinity, Cadillac, etc….a status symbol?

Yes.
Eman says

Is making $500k/year a status symbol compared to someone making $100k/year?

Yes.
Eman says

Is living in a $3M vs a $1M home a status symbol?

Yes.

There is one additional major cost for operating an electric vehicle: The cost of replacing the Lithium battery every 8 years.

In the news recently, a guy from Finland destroyed his electric vehicle after he learned he needed to spend $23,000 to replace the battery. Therefore, if you need $23,000 every 8 years to replace the battery then your annual cost for operating the electric vehicle is $2,875 - a very significant cost!

The_Deplorable