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1
Glock-n-Load
2025 Dec 15, 10:06am
I’m not a financial expert but I “feel” the same way. But “feeling” something doesn’t make it true.
Saying that, it is certainly true that the Gods of finance and monetary policy have true power. It’s obvious because they tell you what they’re doing. Well, at least they tell you some of what they’re doing. I’m sure there are many happenings going on in the background as well.
The question, as far as I’m concerned, is how long can “they” control the ups and downs? And if/when they can’t control those ups and downs anymore, what will happen? There is no shortage of “experts” telling us all hell is going to break loose.
Personally, I think “they’ve” found a way to forever kick the can down the road and the economy will become more and more bifurcated.
Saying that, it is certainly true that the Gods of finance and monetary policy have true power. It’s obvious because they tell you what they’re doing. Well, at least they tell you some of what they’re doing. I’m sure there are many happenings going on in the background as well.
The question, as far as I’m concerned, is how long can “they” control the ups and downs? And if/when they can’t control those ups and downs anymore, what will happen? There is no shortage of “experts” telling us all hell is going to break loose.
Personally, I think “they’ve” found a way to forever kick the can down the road and the economy will become more and more bifurcated.
2
Tenpoundbass
2025 Dec 15, 10:19am
Tenpoundbass
2025 Dec 15, 10:19am
The new thing to do, is for CEO's to direct their companies to gouge the fuck out of everyone. Which in turn their suppliers gouge them, the commodity futures gouge us, the producers gouge us, there are no sound economic reason for it. The more they gouge the more their customer base has to cut back, the less they sell. You would be fool to invest in this market.
I remember in the 80's and 90's even when the country was having inflation and economic down turns. Companies based their value on numbers, the volume of goods they moved. As that was the bench of a healthy economy as a whole. What good is a widget company that sells one item for as much as they can, while their suppliers only benefit from them on the rare occasion they need more materials. The business mantra then was "I would rather a million loaves of bread with a thin margin, than sell only a hand few with a large margin."
Today the corporate norm is to chase the few sales with a large margin. Even though if their suppliers weren't chasing that same goal, they could sell a hell of a lot more, for a hell of a lot less, and make a hell of a lot more.
You can't fix stupid, but you can wait it out.
I remember in the 80's and 90's even when the country was having inflation and economic down turns. Companies based their value on numbers, the volume of goods they moved. As that was the bench of a healthy economy as a whole. What good is a widget company that sells one item for as much as they can, while their suppliers only benefit from them on the rare occasion they need more materials. The business mantra then was "I would rather a million loaves of bread with a thin margin, than sell only a hand few with a large margin."
Today the corporate norm is to chase the few sales with a large margin. Even though if their suppliers weren't chasing that same goal, they could sell a hell of a lot more, for a hell of a lot less, and make a hell of a lot more.
You can't fix stupid, but you can wait it out.
3
SharkyP
2025 Dec 15, 11:11am
SharkyP
2025 Dec 15, 11:11am
It’s a market filled with land mines. I tend to invest in high momentum stocks for maybe 30% of my portfolio and never fall in love with them. The problem in today’s market is wild volatility, so placing a 10% stop on a company can end up hurting you, because it might bounce back two hours later. I currently believe the 2nd half of 26 will be a Runaway train to the upside, after the changes Trump has made kicks in and interest rates drop. ON the other hand, making any predictions is foolhardy, as I’ve learned time and again.
4
GNL
2025 Dec 15, 12:03pm
GNL
2025 Dec 15, 12:03pm
SharkyP says
What are the specific changes Trump has made that make you feel this way?
It’s a market filled with land mines. I tend to invest in high momentum stocks for maybe 30% of my portfolio and never fall in love with them. The problem in today’s market is wild volatility, so placing a 10% stop on a company can end up hurting you, because it might bounce back two hours later. I currently believe the 2nd half of 26 will be a Runaway train to the upside, after the changes Trump has made kicks in and interest rates drop. ON the other hand, making any predictions is foolhardy, as I’ve learned time and again.
What are the specific changes Trump has made that make you feel this way?
I’ve lately been thinking about how disconnected markets feel from reality. Asset prices seem propped up by monetary policy and government intervention rather than true supply and demand. Because of that, the market do NOT feel like a real supply/demand system, but like something being actively managed.
For years, analysts have predicted major corrections based on fundamentals, yet those outcomes keep getting delayed by new policy tools: stimulus, liquidity injections, mass flood of illegals, acronym factory at the FED, or other interventions. This creates an environment where imbalances persist instead of resolving. Where problems only get bigger and failure gets bailed out over and over instead of letting markets correct. Where things that don't work are artificially kept alive at expense to things that do work but get no sunlight.
So traditional financial analysis, which relies on market data and historical patterns, is not just unreliable, it's pointless, because fundamentals don't matter when economy is "managed". When outcomes are driven by policy decisions instead of market forces, understanding government actions matters more than analyzing the market itself.