patrick.net

High energy prices in Europe have not created viable alternatives. In Briton where gas goes for something like $5 a gallon, where are the alternative energy sources breakthroughs that make a real difference?

Alternatives are pie ala mode for the future. Pie in the sky will not run our industries now or in the intermediate future.

@SFWoman,

For definition on Internet Troll, see my above post from January 31st, 2006 at 3:22 pm.

I agree that bubble-myopia has induced a pollyanna-ish inability to connect reason to what they see around them. But this is the way it has always been during every asset bubble, from the Dutch Tulip Bubble, to the South Sea Bubble, to Dot.com to now. Speculative euphoria takes hold of the collective psyche in a way that mystifies non-believers.

For some good in depth analysis, I recommend "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation", "A Short History of Financial Euphoria" and Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance".

This is totally OT, but do you swear?

In Briton where gas goes for something like $5 a gallon, where are the alternative energy sources breakthroughs that make a real difference?

I read (in the Eonomist?) a couple years back a study that showed that, if you exclude Nuclear (the renewed interest in Nuclear had not appeared at the time of the study), the price point for gasoline would need to be something close to $28/US Gallon to make non-nuke alternatives cost efficient. I forget the analysis including nuke, but it was below $10 per gallon.

Robert Cote,

I'm no Euro-phile, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Europe get a lot more of their energy (esp. electricity) from alternative sources, inlcuding nuclear? I've seen stats that say France is getting 75% of their electricity from nuclear alone.

Agree with you in general about taxes skewing the costs, though. If it costs $1.60 a gallon for producers to bring gas to the market, then that's the baseline that alternative fuels must match or beat. Of course, European governments have also known to heavily subsidize said alternative fuels, which would skew that baseline somewhat.

Few weak sellers’ supply will be met with legitimate demand in top half of zip codes in SF. Less overbidding in SF, but still overbidding and still pent up demand.

Of course, real estates always go up. There are not making any more land. :)

Mr. Right, Dec. -12% in SLO. Bbaaahahahahhahahahahahahha

However I am sure that most if not all of the SLO elite, such as yourself, are well insulated from such "seasonal fluctuations".

As I am not a weatherman, are there seasons in SLO? I thought they outsourced them to Idaho.

DinOR / Linda,

Can we call a truce here?

barnum

Real Estate bubbles do bust. It is not naive to review recent events:

December 1996: The IMF praises the Thai Government’s ‘consistent record for sound macro-economic management policies’.

July-1997: Thai property companies get into difficulties after a real-estate bubble bursts, wiping a third of the value off the stock market and leading to the collapse of the banks which backed them. Foreign investors lose confidence and start pulling out. The Thai currency’s peg to the dollar wobbles. Currency speculators move in for a killing. The Thai baht is floated and the currencies of the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea also suffer. A wave of devaluations follow, triggering a massive haemorrhage of funds as panicky foreign investors sell up their stocks and bonds. The economies of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines go into free fall.

December 1997: By now millions are without work and decades of social and economic progress have been thrown into reverse. Of 282 firms on the Indonesian stock market only 22 are technically solvent.

So my advice to you would be to use your Development experience along with the CFA to move toward a more financially-oriented software company. There are a lot of them. And the key is that you don’t want to do purely Dev work, you will also need to get your hands a bit dirtier and delve into operations and/or consulting.

SFRenter, thanks for your advice. I will look into it. :)

Go try and buy a SFH for under $1M in a top 10 zip code.
94123
94133
94127
94118
94114
94121
94131
94117
94103
94116

You can have these ZIP codes. Didn't I say that there is no bubble for homes above 2M or so?

Truce accepted. DinOr can come over anytime for an inspection.

Can we use your house for the next blog party? ;)

What’s a blog party?

Just a get together. Usually, we do that in a restaurant.

I’m no Euro-phile, and please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Europe get a lot more of their energy (esp. electricity) from alternative sources, inlcuding nuclear? I’ve seen stats that say France is getting 75% of their electricity from nuclear alone.

France is an exception within Europe (excluding Russia). They are the modern-world leaders in nuclear energy, and they continue to support its further development widely. They, for some reason, established a strong cultural acceptance whereas everywhere else (US included) developed a strong revulsion against nuclear.

Germany, for example, is executing a plan to decomission all nuke power within the next 20-25 years. This is *very* popular amongst the people. Even the recent natural gas crises caused by Russia has not jolted the German people into reconsidering shutting off their only alternative. In fact, when their energy minister suggested a delay in the plan, there was a near revolt within his own party (and these are the conservatives).

Europe does have much more advanced wind energy. But this isn't even 2% of the production in Germany (when I last read). Some smaller countries produce more from wind, but they're *small*, we're not, nor is Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, etc.

Add to that the popular sport of "demonizing" nuclear power here in the US. Hell, I walked past my wife Tivoing "The West Wing" last week and I almost wrenched to see yet another big bad nuclear boggyman disguised as entertainment piece. If nuclear power is so dangerous, then statistically why aren't all the French dead, given the density of nuclear reactors is 10,000X that here in the US?

I am a supporter of nuclear energy, I do not mind if they put a nuclear power plant in the Bay Area (they need to find a way around the earthquakes though).

Nuclear waste is a valid concern, but I think we can find enough sites for storage before we move on to fusion power.