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I would like to post things like "Regression analyses on the Keebler-Palmolive model have shown that a 37% decline in RE prices contradict both the Bernanke Flipper hypothesis and the NAR estimate for Q1 of '06," or "The assertion that the NorCal condo market is 43% over-valued is supported by the Bubblicious Dirigible Theorem, a widely alluded to but not so widely understood metric," but alas I don't possess the education in economics.
RE is so over, how do I know? Watch the super bowl? Did you pay attention the ameriquest commerical? The one that said "don't judge too quickly, we won't". Nice. I recall with fondness the dot.com superbowl and the implosion the next year.
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From SFWoman's post.
I just had coffee with a couple of friends and of course the discussion turned to real estate. I said I would like to buy a larger place in SF, but since I am comfortable in my place now I’ll wait for the prices to come down. Instantly I got a stern lecture on how San Francisco prices could at most level off, and how ‘there is no place to expand the city, they aren’t making land anymore, San francisco is desirable and everybody is moving here, prices never drop here..etc…’.
I pointed out that I paid $157,000 LESS for my place in 1994 than the previous owners had paid in 1989, but my friends said that was a blip/anomally/earthquake specific. I pointed out that Tokyo had tanked and was a much more important city but thay said Tokyo had run up much more than SF (I have to look into that). Nothing I said about ARMs, interest only loans or even negative amortization could convince them that people hadn’t been rational about real estate for the last few years. I even said San Francisco had a lot of brownfields in which to expand and there were something like 30,000 condos approved in the South of Market area.
Is there a sort of mental illness (in that people can’t recognize reality) that goes along with real estate transactions in California?
It was amazing, they really believe that the real estate bubble is based on something more solid than very easy credit.
#housing