patrick.net

Now, back to reality…

Yes, let's face reality, there is no bubble!

@ Hitman,

Here's a quote from your DQNews link that you conveniently omitted: "Last month's sales count was the lowest for any January since 2001."

Dude, if you are going to post a link, throw us a friggin bone that helps us celebrate the absence of the Bubble.

Hitman, go quail hunting with Cheney, will ya?

Hi guys,

looks that HBs are trying to rush to market ASAP.

Housing Construction Surges in January at Quickest Pace in 30 Years, Government Says
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060216/economy.html?.v=4

That is great news, the more they build, the harder it will crash. I can just see 12 months down the road, all the flippers trying to rush for the door to compete with the big money. It will be fun to watch.

You know... I was thinking the other day that my 11 year old toyota truck was looking a bit 1990ish. Thanks to the good news that there's apparently no bubble, I can now go out and buy that brand spankin' new Mercedes C class SUV with heated ass warmers, and lots of other whistles and doohickies. It will all be possible because I'm going to place a bid on my neighbor's chicken coop, kick out all the chickens, install marble countertops, a Subzero stainless fridge, and plaster it with liberal amounts of stucco, then resell it for a handsome profit. Say... 743K? It can be a starter home for a young innocent couple, or maybe a few boomers hungry for another investment opportunity.

What, no bubble? Gosh, I'm really sorry to have been so negative. It seemed obvious to me, but a million Realtors(TM) can't be wrong.

I'll post a link to this right away.

Patrick

So it looks like we've finally faced the facts: real estate has no ceiling.
Like it or not, we'll probably pay $15,000/sqft someday.

Seeing how real estate will continue into the stratosphere, I plan to take my speculation up there. Remember our talk of blimp condos? Get in before all the "prime" airspace is taken!

"Hitman, go quail hunting with Cheney, will ya?" --UnAlloyed

He can't, HITMAN is still too busy trying to convince people that a basis point is 1/10 of a percent. Here's his post on that again if you need another reminder of his stupidity:

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=151#comments

KC:

Well I'm sure you are aware that values fell in SoCal solely because of the aerospace bust in the early 90s. No chance of anything like that happening this time around (wink, wink). Even though unemployment never got above 8% in the early 90s San Diego. Even though the bulk of jobs created in the last 5 years have been thanks to the real estate boom itself.

I had a nightmare last night. No kidding. I dreamed that me and my wife were on a cruiseship, sailing past Sacremento.( how this could be possible is beyond me) There were thousands and thousands of cranes and lots of condo complexes half finished. My wife suddenly had an urge to buy one of these condos. We walked in and the inside looked like the camper me and my parents went camping in as a kid..little weird gas grille and ugly yellow and brown skotch patterned wallpaper. It was 600k, yet we both thought it was some amazing deal, so we bought it. You had to go outside and use an outhouse, and there was no fridge. Just a tiny bed in an alcove and ugly shag carpeting.I woke up from that one and for a split second thouht" good god, what have I done!" then realized, thankfully, that I was still laying in bed in my rented victorina home. Weird dream.. but I bet there are weirder things in the real estate world.

Anyone noticing a jump in BA inventory lately ? S.San Jose #'s I'm tracking went from 460 to 540 in 2 days.
But I'm glad there's no bubble...now there are plenty of properties that I can over-bid on. Would it be strange to offer 5% above list price if I'm the only bidder? Or maybe I'll find a "reduced price" property and offer them the original asking price???
I sure would like to do my fair share to contribute to this great american bull market....

But I’m glad there’s no bubble…now there are plenty of properties that I can over-bid on. Would it be strange to offer 5% above list price if I’m the only bidder?

5%? I am going to overbid 25% just to be safe. What if there are phantom bidders? More inventory means more buyers! A price dip means a future frenzy. Expensive homes are bargains!

I'm sorry I missed it. I am always late to the party. So there is no housing bubble after all? Sigh. So that three quarters of a million dollar shack in the boondocks of Marin is fairly valued afterall. How could I have been so wrong? Well, nothing left to do but shut down the blog.

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble

I just saw this link posted yesterday that summarizes the monthly premiums you have to pay to buy vs. rent in some of the bubble cities:

http://www.expertclick.com/NewsReleaseWire/default.cfm?Action=ReleaseDetail&ID=11732

For example, in San Franciso you've got to pay a premium of $1308 per month for the priviledge of being a homedebtor! More and more people are going to start realizing that the desperate avoidance of "being priced out of the RE market forever" is actually not worth the cost, and that is why they won't have to worry about "being priced out forever" in the long run!

Well, nothing left to do but shut down the blog.

No, you will have to turn it into a housing bull blog, just to show how wrong you have been. :)

More and more people are going to start realizing that the desperate avoidance of “being priced out of the RE market forever” is actually not worth the cost, and that is why they won’t have to worry about “being priced out forever” in the long run!

Huh? We need to let them know that if they continue to think like a bear they will indeed be priced out.

@nomadtoons2,

Nightmare??? What you've described is tthe AMERICAN DREAM, buddy! Get out there and buy your $600K camper-condo right now, and you'll never have to dream about it again --I guarantee it!

@Marinite,

You could always call rename it "Marin Real Estate Un-Bubble".

If you don't mind, I have to feature this on the blog.

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble blog soon to become the Marin Real Estate Allways Goes Up at 20% Appreciation Forever blog

Just curious: How many of you have friends that are Realtors that you avoid like the plague now? I have a Realtor friend that I'm avoiding having lunch with. Why? 1. I haven't bought yet and she knows it. and 2. Her business is really drying up. In all fairness she has been a good friend over the years despite her profession and the topic will inevitably come up. I certainly won't bring it up but she definitely will. Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?

"Marin Real Estate Bubble blog soon to become the Marin Real Estate Allways Goes Up at 20% Appreciation Forever blog " --Marinite

20%?! You need to Face Reality son. 20% is chump appreciation, Real Estate actually goes up at 105% forever. You know it's true. It's okay to admit that you were wrong if you just buy in now, otherwise you will be a poor landless peasant forever paying tithes to your Lord, er landlord.

@athena,

Why would all those "CHUMPS" (Cunning Hard-eyed Ultra-savvy Market ProfessionalS) WANT to sue their lenders?? Your lender is your FRIEND. He brings you great wealth and prosperity through the magic of debt leveraging! Why would anyone want to take them to court?

The Realtorâ„¢ is my Shepherd; I shall not want.
He maketh me to lie down in green pastures
He leadeth me beside the still waters.
He restoreth my soul
He leadeth me in the paths of appreciation for Amerika's sake.

Surely bounty and wealth shall follow me all the days of my life,
and I will dwell in the House of Everlasting Appreciation forever.

I am chump.

PS Continuatiion of my question above regarding my Realtor friend:

The last lunch we had last summer together ended with her saying rather bluntly: "it's NEVER going to get any better, tannenbaum". With that the topic of conversation abruptly changed.

Her business is really drying up. In all fairness she has been a good friend over the years despite her profession and the topic will inevitably come up. I certainly won’t bring it up but she definitely will. Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?

tannenbaum,

I recommend you call your Realtorâ„¢ friend asap, apologize and make up. A silly little thing like being right about the housing bubble is NOT worth losing a free lunch over, trust me.

"Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?" --Tannenbaum

I recommend that you try a Surfer-X style approach with your Realtor friend:

"Fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuckin' Realtors! Fuck 'em all"

Hope that helps!

"My fuckin’ $hitbox is gonna explode with equity, huh Bubba realt-whore?
HUH?"

I gots Equity drippin' out the wazoo so's I kin buy mad bling-bling like I'm on MTV cribs yo!

DQ News is out with the lastest on Norcal. Bad news for bulls.

Check out dqnews.com.

I'm going to go pull some equity out of my million dollah chicken coop so I can go buy some new rims for my H2. I'm OUT. Later jealous bitter renter losers! Get some skills so you can get a real job and buy a house ya fuckin' trash!

@DinOR,

Got'cher Amerika.

@newsfreak,

"Bubble Gump" :lol:

Lunarpark, don't worry, be happy. From dqnews:

A decline from December to January is normal for the season.

Indicators of market distress are still largely absent.

Soon, triple digit appreciation will return!

I’m going to go pull some equity out of my million dollah chicken coop so I can go buy some new rims for my H2.

Must get those shinning, spinning rims!

"Indicators of market distress are still largely absent."

You forgot the part about down payment sizes being stable.

You forgot the part about down payment sizes being stable.

What are "down payments"? We don't have those in Kalifornia.

"What are “down payments”?"

I don't know. I will ask my grandpa. He might be familiar with the term.

athena,

Had this good friend. Worked in a bank. Sold retired guy THE MOST secure investment after a money market. AAA rated, well run bond fund for God's sake. The prinicpal eroded about 1% (1% of a million is 10K). Old guy goes berserk, threatens legal action if he doesn't get his 1% back. Bank manager buckles and writes old guy a check. Wrong! This is called "riskless" investing. Example; guy calls up and says buy me xyz shares. O.K, xyz goes up 5 points and the guy says just sell me out and send me the profit. Well, O.K but you have to pay for the principal first! The guy was never AT RISK! I have NO compassion for the slick bastards. How is I/O w/zero down any different? They never had any "skin" in the game! Peace out yo.

Here's a direct link to today's released Bay Area report from DataQuick:

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0206.shtm

SF Woman,

Can I be the manager? I've always wanted to say that I was a REIT manager. Like George Costanza telling people he's Art Van Delay, an architect. A B/A REIT w/positive cash flow? This I gotta see. While we're in Fantasyland, can we start it in 1989?

SF Woman,

Normally to retain exemption from "double taxation of dividends" we'd have to pass 90% of the profit thru to the shareholders but since we've utterly trampled traditional financial architecture anyway? Besides, what profit? New Volvos and vacation homes are expensive! That is part of my comp. package right?

And there you have it. At the core of many of the issues we face here in Ameruka center around many of us wanting "our dessert first"! Dues? Too painful! Short cuts, that's what I want!

From the DQNews report:

"The annual price increase was the lowest since prices rose 13.1 percent to $474,000 in March 2004. It's probable that appreciation will dip into the single digits during the next month or two."

Hmmm...which statement doesn't belong???
Why don't they that 13.1% is the absolute lowest YOY appreciation that can be expected in the BA? I fully expect a bounce-back to +25% YOY in the coming months. What is wrong with all of these nay-sayers lately? Don't they know...(?)