patrick.net

If Schiff is going to run for senate he's going to have to repatriate some of his foreign investments, lest he be called unpatriotic.

Inquiring minds want to know: Democrat or Republican?

Great question!

It is well known that Schiff is a Libertarian, but that label doesn't get you very far in politics. Given the criticisms he has laid upon both the Dem's and Repubs over the years, I bet he runs as an independant.

Republican, but he is extremely independent and more libertarian in his views. Why would party matter? Repatriation of assets? I don't think that will be an issue against Dodd with his ties to firms like Countrywide. Much of Schiff's asset recommendations are commodities anyway.

Hopefully he runs as an independent. It's sad when intelligent people are forced into claiming political party affiliation when they clearly don't agree with the party's objectives at all (see Ron Paul).

I don't see why the interview would be any longer. Schiff and Stewart are actually probably pretty far apart as far as economic policy goes, but Stewart knows that Schiff is a rational and intelligent person whom he wouldn't really be able to have an entertaining debate with (remember, this is a comedy program). In Cramer's case, it's plainly obvious that Cramer is just a self absorbed jackass who doesn't know the first thing about what he's talking about, so Stewart skewered him.

A real interesting debate on economics might be Krugman vs. Schiff. For as much as those guys actually agree on things, you'd probably not get either of them to admit it.

Ask Schiff how his commodities investment have been doing lately. He did extremely well a few years ago but he's lost his ass since last summer. The dollar has not crashed like he promised, commodity prices have tanked, etc. If you bought his books and followed his advice starting last summer, you would be WAY down rt now. Schiff was right about some things but for the wrong reasons. Everywhere I look I still see deflationary pressures and Schiff's investment strategies are setup for a crashing dollar and high inflation. Although I think that will happen I don't see it for a number of years. Invest w/ caution.

I think Schiff's problem is that he doesn't anticipate change very well. He's really good at predicting what will happen if nothing changes, but that's a bit short sighted in times like these.

A good example was his predictions in 2002 that the dow was going to hit 4000 and the nasdaq 500. He failed to predict the credit bubble and the recovery of tech companies following the dot com bubble. If neither of those things had happened, his prediction would have been correct.

So, while Schiff has a lot of value as an economist, I don't think he's necessarily the best person to listen to for investment advice. I'd argue that there's really only one person who has consistently great investment advice, and that's Warren Buffet -- and even he's wrong occasionally.

So, while Schiff has a lot of value as an economist, I don’t think he’s necessarily the best person to listen to for investment advice. I’d argue that there’s really only one person who has consistently great investment advice, and that’s Warren Buffet — and even he’s wrong occasionally.

Kevin, well said. Though even Mr. Buffet has been losing big time recently. It's a tough time out there for everyone.

grywlfbg,

why don't you ask him? Commodities just had the biggest 1 month run in the past 4 decades. Anyone who's stuck to Schiff's strategy had done well. In fact, I dipped into some mining stocks when Schiff called the bottom. They are up 250%. I bought heavily into Silver since October. We know where that is. I bought into Canadian Energy Trusts on his recommendation in February. We all know where oil is. Schiff was begging people to buy into "Skyworth Digital" in his newsletter and in some interviews back in December. The thing is up 250% and pays out 25% on your original investment if you listened to him.

You are still spewing the Mike Shedlock hit piece he published back in January. Fact of the matter is, the second everyone turned on Schiff, it was the best time to invest with him. Meanwhile, Mike Shedlock officially proclaimed it's time to buy treasury bonds again 4 weeks ago....oops. I had an account with Schiff that went down 60% last October. I stuck it out and followed his advice and already erased every loss with my new investments. Oh yeah...and my other stocks that appeared to tank appear to be on their way to recovery.

You don't see high inflation at all? Have you looked at the market in the past 2 months? Astute investors were out of the dollar 8 years ago and it will continue to be the place to be out. Deflationary pressures are meaningless against a printing press.

You don’t see high inflation at all? Have you looked at the market in the past 2 months? Astute investors were out of the dollar 8 years ago and it will continue to be the place to be out. Deflationary pressures are meaningless against a printing press.

At the moment all I see is a bear market rally. Look at charts from the 30's. There were plenty of rallies on the way down - some of them lasting many months.

I bristle against anyone who says they have a "system" for the current times whether it's Schiff, Mish, Krugman, whomever. No one knows what's going to happen or how to "fix" it. The Fed's printing like crazy. The rest of the world is printing like crazy. Credit is being destroyed at a rate never seen before. People have been preaching the death of the dollar forever and so far the rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated.

More unregulated hedge funds gigging the commodities market, just like always. Nothing has changed.

As far as markets go, if you need something in order to survive, (shelter, fuel, food,) then it should be hugely regulated and safeguarded from over speculation.

Krugman is a nutjob. If you want, I can show some articles written by him early in the decade about how he thought low interest rates were need to "stimulate housing" to lead us into recovery. The guy is clueless and talks out of both sides of his ass.

Mish is your classic snake oil salesman. In fact, the guy is running a commodities fund along side his other fund. He's playing both sides of the coin so he can claim he's right no matter what happens.

Deflation never wins. In fact, the printing presses turned deflation into inflation instantaneously in 1933. I suggest you follow some more credible sources on whether the dollar is going to collapse or not. If you want libertarian minded economists, listen to Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, or Marc Faber. If you want progressives, listen to Dean Baker and Nouriel Roubini. Fact of the matter is, they all say the dollar is going to get crushed. When other countries print like crazy, it doesn't prevent us from having inflation (just look at the 1970s.) Stocks can be a crappy investment and go up nominally in an inflationary environment. We'll have a pullback in the near future, and they'll print away some more. Inflation always wins if you want it to.

"More unregulated hedge funds gigging the commodities market, just like always. Nothing has changed."

Yes, something has changed. Those hedge funds would have no money had it not been for the printing press recapitalizing them. That's the inflation. The rising prices are a symptom of inflation. It's going to keep happening.

Deflation never wins. In fact, the printing presses turned deflation into inflation instantaneously in 1933. I suggest you follow some more credible sources on whether the dollar is going to collapse or not. If you want libertarian minded economists, listen to Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, or Marc Faber. If you want progressives, listen to Dean Baker and Nouriel Roubini. Fact of the matter is, they all say the dollar is going to get crushed. When other countries print like crazy, it doesn’t prevent us from having inflation (just look at the 1970s.) Stocks can be a crappy investment and go up nominally in an inflationary environment. We’ll have a pullback in the near future, and they’ll print away some more. Inflation always wins if you want it to.

The key question about the dollar collapsing is what will it crash in relation to? Other fiat currencies? They’re all printing like mad so they’re as weak as the dollar. Commodities? All speculation aside, someone has to eventually consume the commodities and I don’t see demand increasing any time soon so I don’t see how prices will rise. Gold? Well, gold is special because it’s not consumed like a normal commodity. It’s an emotional purchase which could do really well or really poorly depending on people’s fear.


When I look at things I buy I don’t see inflation. Sure, oil has gone up but that’s because 1) it’s summer and 2) speculators are storing tons of oil in tankers to try to drive the price up. Eventually they’re going to have to deliver that oil.


We’re talking fundamentals here. Supply and Demand. We’re in global oversupply for pretty much everything. With no signs that demand is going to pick up I just don’t see a driver for increased prices.

Once you realize you can sell any market as easily as you can buy any market, you then realize you substantially raise your odds for winning.

That’s the inflation. The rising prices are a symptom of inflation. It’s going to keep happening.

Perhaps. I think George Soros got it right in saying that fear of inflation is the greater threat than actual inflation.

we aren't in a global oversupply of everything. Check the world's food inventories. Oil fields around the world have declining reserves. The time frames you are thinking in are way too short. If you extend anything beyond a year or two, the supply/demand fundamentals for commodities only get better, especially for oil. Demand for commodities has already shown signs of picking up in Asia. Producer nations have a giant vault of cash that they have been saving for a rainy day for 20 years. They will consume more.

regardless of what you may think, it's complete nonsense to question Schiff's investment strategy at this point in time. His company delivered near double digit returns for nearly a decade and 2008 was the only year in which they lost. When all his biggest recommendations since October have yielded gains of 200-300% in a 6 month period, I fail to see where criticism is deserved. Hell, even his worst picks have gained 50%. A big mistake people made was selling out after the decline. An even bigger mistake was not buying in. There is no deflationary spiral. There is no paradox of thrift. In fact, there is no depression yet. We do have a crappy economy...but the real bust will be inflationary.

Although I think theoakman is cherry picking numbers for Schiff, I don't think you can ignore the obvious inflationary pressures here. All of the stimulus money hasn't hit the economic bloodstream yet. The Fed dumped dollars to push down Treasury yields, but they've already hit a reflex point where the gain (amplification, not profit) is less than 1. So all they've succeeded in doing was unleashing artificial greenbacks into Congressional spending, and have now lost the ability to control the interest rate on that debt.

Once the banks finally realize their losses with government cash, we're going to flip from deflationary to inflationary in a very short timeframe. I doubt we'll see true hyperinflation, but I think 1970's style stagflation is in the cards... unless we stupidly opt for an American Lost Decade.

Of course I cherry picked numbers from Schiff. The whole argument that Schiff lost money was based upon cherry picking numbers on a 6 month time frame. Now that I already erased whatever losses I had with Schiff by listening to him for the past 9 months, that argument is complete nonsense. Fact is, Schiff posted good returns for the past 10 years and only had one bad year (2008). 2009 appears to be his best year so far, according to him. What's hilarious is that the time when all the Schiff bashing articles came flying out in January was when his portfolios were set for their biggest run in history. What's sad is that a dishonest blogger like Mish scared a bunch of Schiff's clients into liquidating their portfolios which made those losses real. I don't know if we'll see hyperinflation. What I do know is, we won't see the cost of living go down any time in the near future.

You are never supposed to listen to anyone's advice without filtering through your own analytical lens. Mish and Schiff both have good points to make and I listen to them both, but never accepting at full value whatever they preach.

I really feel sorry for all of those who bought US treasury in the last few months, and I will feel even more sorry for them 2 years down the road. These are simpletons who actually have savings (a rarity in the US!) and they don't deserve a government that is working against their interest.

I am not a believer of a replay of Zimbabwe or Weimar in the US. But we are heading in that direction, with a much, much better outcome. One thing I would like to point out is, at the initial stage of decline of Weimar, and the complete trashing of Weimar's Deutsch Mark, the currency actually gained significant ground against USD (the gold standard back then) for about 2 years before a total collapse.

You are never supposed to listen to anyone’s advice without filtering through your own analytical lens. Mish and Schiff both have good points to make and I listen to them both, but never accepting at full value whatever they preach.

Bingo!

You win a gold star.

I read a lot of this in many internet arguments, when I talk about individual issues, then I talk about the people who have helped me form opinions.

Just because they were nut-jobs at an earlier time and were wrong, doesn't discount the argument now. I agree, and can really wrap my head around the arguments Krugman makes now, so I read him regularly.

Anyway, whether or not he is right or wrong (Shiff), why the fuck would people put a money person in power? It's like shooting yourself in the foot! Christ, you think people would learn . . .

Don't put bankers into power. Smart or not, a banker in power is a walking conflict of interest.

In time this overhang will be worked off. Meanwhile, economic policy should encourage other spending to offset the temporary slump in business investment. Low interest rates, which promote spending on housing and other durable goods, are the main answer.

-Paul Krugman October 7, 2001

Beware listening anything to Paul Krugman says...You can search through his entire archive of writings and find that he's been consistently awful since about 1982.

<blockquote>
</blockquote><blockquote>
In time this overhang will be worked off. Meanwhile, economic policy should encourage other spending to offset the temporary slump in business investment. Low interest rates, which promote spending on housing and other durable goods, are the main answer.
-Paul Krugman October 7, 2001

Beware listening anything to Paul Krugman says…You can search through his entire archive of writings and find that he’s been consistently awful since about 1982.

</blockquote>
Yeah, anyways, like I was saying. . . I am not going to read all this. As I am sure it is a matter of opiniion. The man won the Nobel prize in Economics, there has to be something behind that. Of course I am not going to fall into the appeal to authority trap . . . You have to filter things based on logis and precedent.