patrick.net

Does anyone beleive the market has hit bottom yet? Prices have fallen pretty fall and although there may still be some wiggle room for prices to fall a little bit further, I believe that even if you buy now, you will not take much of a hit if prices continue to slide a bit more.  Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but remember that chances of you buying at the absolute bottom of the market are slim.  Chances are that prices will begin to climb before you decide to jump in.  Actually I beleive once the "bottom" is reached and prices begin to climb again, that they will raise somewhat rapidly at least initially, as people realize they missed the bottom and if they don't buy today, it will cost more tommorrow.  I don't expect the kinds of run ups as we had during the housing bubble years, but there will be an initial surge of 20 to 30% increase in prices as people scramble to get a house while prices are still low. While 30% seems high, you have to remember housing prices are down alot. If a house cost 100k and prices dropped 30%, the house price is now 70k. If that house raises in value by 30%, the price increase is 21k, not the original 30k it lost when it dropped 30% in value.  A better examble would be a 400k Las Vegas house that lost 50% in value, a 200k lost, making the price of the house 200k now.  Even if the housing market dramatically increases and house increase 50% in value, they only regain 100k in lost value, making it 300k.

 I for one can't see the housing market losing more than another 10% in value, perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part.

          

#housing