patrick.net

Case Shiller Composite is around 140-145 right now. It still has a way to go to get to 100-110.

The question that those who are vested in RE bottoming now and going back up can never answer is, who is going to buy their house for these inflated prices? Incomes are what they are, and granted some areas have higher incomes than others, they should also have higher house prices. But the fact remains that if someone like me, who has a household income that is roughly double the area median and is in the top 15%, AND has 20% cash down for a house that I could afford on a 30 year fixed even at these low interest rates can only barely afford a house that is around the MEDIAN listing price, then who is going to buy a house for double the median? i.e. Someone who has roughly double my income and double my downpayment. The important thing is double my income. That would be four times the median income for my area (Jacksonville), the population of which in Jacksonville is less the 3% of the total. I'll never buy a median house on my income, because frankly, I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods. Either they are small bungalows in neighborhoods struggling with the gentrification process or mid sized homes in the exurbs that would give me an average one hour commute each way. Especially not when I can rent a home in a good neighborhood with a 15 minute tops commute (like I am currently doing) for about 60% of what it would cost me to buy and pay the mortgage, insurance and taxes on the home that is for sale right next door.

That is a home that only a family that makes 3-4 times the median could afford. About 160-215K per year, less than 5% of the population here. I'm sorry to say but I bet close to 5% of the homes in Jacksonville are waterfront. Not all of it would be desireable, but a significant portion of the waterfront homes here are. I guess my point is if you are trying to sell a house that only the top 5% of the population could afford, then it better be close to one of the nicest 5% of houses in the area.

There are those that will….those that want to….and those that never will...yada, yada, yada

"Marina is Prime"--is that you? I recognized the same old "haves vs have-nots" banter that will somehow keep RE stratospheric. So, how is bubbly Marina doing these days--not quite as uppity in 2009? No surprise...not even SF can subsist on leverage and parental trickle-down economics forever.

Dear rblack or whoever commented on my loan: I still have my amortization table for my original loan in 1994 (117K at 8.75%). It shows that at the end of the 30 years I would have paid $232,574 total for the loan had I stayed in it. I don't know where or how you got $1.5 million, but it is definitely ridiculous. I have the proof.

This is from the actual loan document dated 10/7/1994:
Loan Amount: $117,000.00 Term of Loan: 30 years Interest Rate: 8.750% Monthly mortgage payments: $920.44 Total interest paid over the life of the loan: $214,358.21.

Do the calculation yourself, and please tell me how you came up with $1.5 million total cost of loan over 30 years. I am dying to know.

Sorry, typo. Total loan cost $332,574.

Oooh, NBUFH -- Marine Prime of yesteryear(s)? Could very well be.

Use this to calculate how much you pay at the end of 30 years
http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/loan-calculator.aspx

Bap33 says

“Professional Bubble Sitter”….. lmao … me too!!
“”there are bidding wars for starter homes”"
The next time your REALturd tells you there are “multiple offers” … “bidding war” … “it will go way above asking” … “now’s the time” … “this is the bottom” …… slap them right across the face with a rolled up collection of printed out facts from the Patrick.net front page. “Starter Home” = “A REALturd needs to dump this unrentable POS with Section8 renters on both sides that are in opposing gangs”
Do not believe there are any other offers until you are sitting at a desk with your offer and the other offers all spread out infront of you. Here’s why, REALturds are liars. Just like usedcar salesmen are liars, only worse — much much worse.

Bap33, you speak the truth.

- Professional Bubble Sitter #3

Tude says

Well after last night I am just sickened. There’s absolutely no hope for the future, the world (esp the Bay Area) is full of idiots.
Sitting around with a few people shopping for homes right now, listening to their total sense of urgency and desperation as they wailed “prices are going back up, we need to buy now or be priced out again!”. I am dead serious, this is the mentality of many if not most of the people I work and socialize with.
Those that do have homes they want to sell? All sitting around waiting for the market to “come back”. Which should be next year…
Seriously, we’re doomed.

Well, just don't become one of those poor fools you are talking with, and you'l be ok!

'waiting for the market to "come back"'. Yeah, sure, just tell 'em, "good luck with that".

a lot of people do not know the the housing bubble. they think there are problem with the market, and the government is trying to fix them so that the prices can go up again.

i have a friend who bought a 2BR condo in Daly City for 500K. he is underwater now, and paying only the interest.

his ARM will reset in 2 years, and he is hoping he can see before that, which means "the market will come back" before his loan resets

Tude says

Well after last night I am just sickened. There’s absolutely no hope for the future, the world (esp the Bay Area) is full of idiots.
Sitting around with a few people shopping for homes right now, listening to their total sense of urgency and desperation as they wailed “prices are going back up, we need to buy now or be priced out again!”. I am dead serious, this is the mentality of many if not most of the people I work and socialize with.
Those that do have homes they want to sell? All sitting around waiting for the market to “come back”. Which should be next year…
Seriously, we’re doomed.

you seriously speak the truth! its absolutely RIDICULOUS the mentality of most people looking to buy/sell. Literally 98% of them have no idea what's going on with the market, economy, etc. I listen and watch my friends participate in this housing frenzy that still exists. I can only sit back and watch, with my jaw dropped at their comments/actions...

maybe in 30 years things will be back to normal, however, I'm starting to doubt that even...

Nowhere but up from here, if you haven't figured it out yet 99% of us are serfs. Do yourself a favor and educate yourself about the hx of banks, ie, the Federal Reserve.

Some of us are just trying to figure out how to live a moral, ethical, comfortable life. Hard to do when you get stomped on by the greedy, the ignorant, and the top 1%. And then we get to bail them all out.

Bankers and other thieves have ruled the globe for centuries. Their aim is to control and conquer, and such has been the course of history and the fate of nations for thousands of years. It's our turn now.

Yes, and there's a great insight about that in the book "Who Rules America": what they really want is control over labor.

They want you to control you, make you work for them, do things for them, serve them. Money is just a proxy for that.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

The index has already returned close to the mean ( 100 - 110) in 2009.

Oh you havent seen anything yet. While only one has corrected the declines have crept from the east and south
taking out future buyers from buying in Santa Clara and San Mateo. LOL! not even close to the mean!

Real Estate Market May Show `Irrational Exuberance' Bloomberg 2003.

http://news.infoshop.org/article.php?story=03/09/22/3969212

And this was before the toxic loans.

Foreclosures spiking, personal bankruptcies spiking, unemployment continues to climb...this party is still swinging!

Leigh says

Foreclosures spiking, personal bankruptcies spiking, unemployment continues to climb…this party is still swinging!

Even after all of these starts to turn around it's going to be a while...... to get back to party mood.

Yes, the opportunity of a lifetime to lose money. Gotta admire stupidity.

nowhere but up from here says

The only thing you can do is carve out your own piece of the pie with wits, guts, savvy and lots of luck.

Don't get priced out forever. Buy with GUTS.

Said by someone who inherited (with GUTS) most of the properties he owns.

nowhere but up from here says

And all the charts, insight, blogs and babble here is not going to change a single thing….EVER!!! Right, wrong, moral, ethical or otherwise…..but I do enjoy the entertainment. The only thing you can do is carve out your own piece of the pie with wits, guts, savvy and lots of luck. For some, this has been the opportunity of a lifetime. I have never seen anything like it.

In what way have you taken advantage of the situation? You said your family handed you several houses (and probably a good amount of money) which you basically held on to, aside from one that you sold which you didn't even sell near the peak. Your rents are back where they were before. It seems like you haven't done anything other than sit on what you've been given. Where's the wits, guts, savvy? In your case, it was 0% wits, 0% guts, 0% savvy and 100% luck of being handed everything. If anything, you bring the comedy to this site by trying to be a hero when in reality you haven't accomplished more than a 5-yr old trust fund baby could accomplish.

nowhere but up from here says

Cheesy…I mean Campy…how on earth do you know WHAT my rents are????

Based on what you said, genius. This is a quote from a prior thread:

nowhere but up from here

The last two homes in our rental property “area” sold and both have been moved into. Now there are zero homes on the market and I’m getting as much for rent as I did during the “boom” years in ALL my rentals…..yeah, it may suck in your world but mine is moving right along…..America…still the land of opportunity if you have the BALLS to make it work……

Sep 2, 8:05 AM — [ ] — Welcome To The Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)

It's a good thing mommy and daddy gave you lots of money and houses. From your postings here, I don't see how you would have made it on your own.

lol .... someone needs to let 'ol nowherebutup in on the secret .... when you die you leave all the paper and shiney rocks here. Good luck collecting.

It's almost as if wealth collection is his "compensation device" ... if you catch my drift.

don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll. don't feed the troll.

Bah, finally setup the account for this board now that the old one appears totally toast. Amusing thread. I'm not seeing a bottom soon here in the mid willamette valley of Oregon (Salem). A couple of rentals I've looked at seem to be around 2004-05 prices. Rents are a bit higher than they should be I think but supply is low for quality. One place I looked at last month had just sold for 212k, its 05 price according to zillow. In 07 it was bought for 279k or so IIRC. 50k right off the top in 2 years. The owner mentioned he was glad it was done, it had taken a long time to get everything all negociated. Though he hushed up beyond the time factor, which I'm guessing meant short sale/bank issues.

I too see the bidding going for entry level stuff that stuns me somewhat. Its not too surprising as that part of the market was/has been going pretty well the past 2-3 years while anything 250-300k+ has been taking 1yr on avg to sell. Still, folks are buying into the emotional jargon and the "its a deal!" mentality. I'll look seriously when the market hits 2000 price levels or certainly mid 1990s levels. When family could buy a nice 3/2 home in Vancouver WA for 140k in 02 thats now at 212k and falling...

Oh and Nowhere, I was/am lucky in my fortunes and I'm not interested in buying, as much as it would provide me with more stability and ease in my life.

Oh and and hi to PDX housing blog folks. :)

I'm betting the Cali bubble bux that ran to Oregon are going to raise hell there for a while

Oh, they have Bap and prolly will continue. Last to start up, last to pop. Bend and Southern Oregon being the worst hit.

Yeah, and the Portland area didn't party in the sub prime room, we'd much rather drown in the Alt-A kool-aid!

Leigh says

unemployment continues to climb…this party is still swinging!

This came up from a headhunter. Read the last line..... Mfg, R&D, Accounting leaving our shores..
so much for the talk about high paid dual incomes couples....

Director of Philippines Accounting Operations Center
This outstanding opportunity is in the Philippines!
As Director of Accounting/Finance, you will be responsible for overseeing all aspects of the Accounting Operations Center located in the Philippines. These responsibilities include supporting both Philippines and U.S. operations.
The Philippines perspective of this position involves hiring, training and oversight for Accounting Operations Center employees; coordinating the month end, quarterly, and annual financial close processes with the Dallas and India accounting and finance staff; processing A/P, payroll, and all internal and external reporting of financial results and analyses of the Philippines operations on a consolidated basis; ensuring the Philippines operations are compliant with all reporting requirements and monitoring the adequacy of certain reserves.
Support of U.S. operations will involve certain invoicing, payroll, cash application and accounts payable functions for field operations and corporate accounting, process documentation, ad hoc projects, identification of additional processes to migrate and subsequent transitioning of those tasks to the Philippines.
This position also provides support to the company's independent auditors regarding transactions and accounting processes to ensure results are properly stated.
• Manage the Philippines Accounting Operations Center (U.S. support) – 70%
• Hire, develop and oversee the continuity of Philippines accounting department employees
• Oversee the transition of various accounting processes from U.S. to Philippines
So now your employers accounting will come from overseas....

here is the link...http://monster.com