patrick.net

thomas.wong87 says

Why are so many in denial over the realistic prices back in 1990s?

Most people in the area don't have long-term memory. Recent past history to Silicon Valley culture is essentially invisible. Then there are quite a few local retirees who won't let go of that peak price, not realizing their $1M 50s-era home is indistinguishable from scores of towns in "flyover country". But we'll tell ourselves that weather, jobs, or schools shore up the difference...forever.

What would break that psychology? What would make sellers realize that they are not going to get that price?

Perhaps a decent earthquake would be a good thing overall...

As someone that sent his kids to a Cupertino-Union school district school for one year, I was not impressed. I had previously sent my kids to a "6" school, then the "10" Cupertino school, and now back to a "6". I'll be honest, my kids learn more in the "6" schools than in the Cupertino "10".

One thing I noticed about the Cupertino district is the very high expectations and demands from the parents. The schools aren't necessarily teaching more advanced topics by default, though. The parents request extra work for their kids, and even send them to outside tutors.

It is my opinion that while the Cupertino district offers a safe and sound education, the teachers aren't necessarily better than in other, "lower" districts. The caveat, though, is that the school should at least be a "5" or above. Anything under that and the school probably really does "suck". ;)

The bottom line is, in my opinion, there is no need to pay crazy "Cupertino" money to live in a "10" district unless you like the sound of bragging about it. Save yourself a ton of money and send 'em to a "6". You might be pleasantly surprised that they'll still turn out remarkably literate, with a more realistic view of the world, to boot. ;)

What would break that psychology?

Perhaps when it becomes socially acceptable/expedient to price to sell--versus waiting for a new upswing? The local realtor buzz about "bidding wars" certainly doesn't help, nor does the Wall St. rally. I don't wish for an earthquake; I can imagine various man-made "disasters" will take their toll: a slump in venture capital, foreclosures and numerous retail/CRE fiascos, businesses and grads moving to more cost-effective locales, a repatriation of professionals, an eventual downslope of retirees living in homes--to name a few possible variables. I must be skeptical of the local hype or something?

Since local execs won't contemplate relocation from their prime abodes, admin offices may remain...but not all the same drivers on demand, "Google-effect" or not. And, if professionals pull up and move elsewhere, they won't care about the CUSD anymore.

The parents request extra work for their kids, and even send them to outside tutors.

Right--tutoring and outside curricula seem to question the premium put on CUSD RE. Money saved from renting or living outside CUSD could be directed towards their education just as well. My brother is currently using his Yale PhD to tutor CUSD students, and the stories I hear are scary...some HS kids have no life outside their studies.

I have learned that owning a home is not the dream I was looking for in America....at least not right now. Who in tarnation can live in 800SQFT?

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 926
$/Sq. Ft.: $538
Lot Size: 871 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Townhouse

Heck, I think offshoring is going to drop these prices quick!...we wont be able to afford 300K in 10 years. We might not be able to afford 100K.

stocksjustgoup says

As someone that sent his kids to a Cupertino-Union school district school for one year, I was not impressed. I had previously sent my kids to a “6″ school, then the “10″ Cupertino school, and now back to a “6″. I’ll be honest, my kids learn more in the “6″ schools than in the Cupertino “10″.

You are probably right. You can't say a school is better or worse by some number. But, my reason to seek a place in that area is not so much for education, its pretty safe, accessibility, I take part time courses in De Anza and work in milpitas etc.

What would break that psychology? What would make sellers realize that they are not going to get that price?

Actually, a healthy RE market should have some premium for better schools, not this much in my opinion. I think as long as knife catchers still buy, the sellers' psychology wont change. Free market, no government goof up, that should teach them what they forgot.

4X says

Heck, I think offshoring is going to drop these prices quick!…we wont be able to afford 300K in 10 years. We might not be able to afford 100K.

BTW, things are going, we might be having "Inshoring". China probably would offshore work to us...

Cupertino over the last decade or two has undergone a dramatic demographic shift where many of the "complacent" locals have sold to highly industrious and family focused immigrants - mainly Chinese and Indians. Many of them are dual-income professionals. In my opinion these families will be the last to sell under pressure, financial or otherwise. I hate to say it, but for Cupertino, don't expect to see dramatic drops back to "reality". This IS the reality. Another 10% drop from the bubble peak, maybe - but I don't think there will be more than that.

stiles.c says

In my opinion these families will be the last to sell under pressure, financial or otherwise. I hate to say it, but for Cupertino, don’t expect to see dramatic drops back to “reality”

So as any other area of bay area. Do you think the demographic of Evergreen/Milpitas/Santa clara didn't change, there you can find houses 30-50% less than peak, and still falling. I partially agree with you, these people will be the last one to give up, but they will.

stiles.c says

Many of them are dual-income professionals. In my opinion these families will be the last to sell under pressure, financial or otherwise.

Well, it could be equally said that many SFBA couples are dual-income irregardless of their ethnicity, and exert similar demands on the market. In actuality, I would argue that towns with a higher influx of skilled immigrants are more subject to mobility when the local job situation changes--or return to growing career opportunities in their home country. I own property in the CUSD area, and naturally we'll cite reasons why the place is more immune to a bust. I'm not sure it's any different however.

OP: I think you're correct that this TH should be selling in the $270k range.

Back in the early eighties, there were a lot of THs built in that area of Sunnyvale, (94087) particularly in the vicinity of Remington/Saratoga-Sunnyvale/Fremont Rds. And near OSH, there too, off El Camino.

Those THs, especially near the Arboretum, were generally going for $140k for an upscale 2BR/2BA/2-car garage. Reason why I know this is that a relative bought one back in 1982 and held on to it for years eventually selling for about $700k in 2002. 1982 price for a 3/2 TH with attached 2-car garage were going for about $165k in that vicinity.

Reason why the property "values" went up so much so fast is because SV and BA boomers were using house sale proceeds to finance a luxurious retirement, or they were laid-off during various downturns or due to offshoring (which has been going on for quite a while in the SV) and they wanted a large sum to relocate out-of-State, to finance a period of unemployment, or to early-retire. And to "trade-up" - that too - to places in the Peninsula.

While on the subject of trading-up to the Peninsula, imo, Menlo Park is one of those boomer ghettos where you hardly ever see anyone of any age group other than 50's or 60's. Sorry to say, it looks as though they ran everyone else out-of-town. Everytime I go there (MP), I sense this exclusionary attitude which I don't detect in other upscale towns like Santa Barbara or Newport Beach.

Menlo Park: no families, no elderly, no babies, no children, no teens....just older middle-aged people. Los Altos is the same however you do see children at times because parents bring them in from Mtn View, Cupertino, Santa Clara and Sunnyvale to attend private school like St. Nicholas or the Montessori on Grant. Mountain View, imo, is a border-line boomer ghetto. There are some young families there and I do see other age groups as opposed to just boomers.

Wanted to add that its not my intention to specifically nail boomers for the real estate mess, however, and unfortunately, this happened on their watch and generally due to their large numbers (which is not their fault) which fueled housing demands which they profited from at the expense of other age groups.

One more thing about Cupertino schools from the WSJ (please note that this article is written by an Asian at a high point in the RE market):

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20051123-hwang.html

~Misstrial

Misstrial says

One more thing about Cupertino schools from the WSJ (please note that this article is written by an Asian):

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20051123-hwang.html

Very interesting, the article is written exactly at the height of the boom, nov 2005. Thanks for the link, very informative.

yw, dont_getit. I live in the Cupertino SD - I live close to Rancho San Antonio county park.

To add a current dimension to the 2005 WSJ article, some Asians and Indians are leaving Cupertino to return to their native countries simply because there are more economic opportunities there as opposed to here. This phenomenon was reported on recently in a major news outlet this year (2009), sorry cannot remember which one.

Edited to add: This wasn't the article I read, think it was in the Mercury News, however, this piece supports the gist of the article:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2009/tc20090228_990934.htm

Even the numbers of Asians at Whole Foods off Stevens Creek have noticeably gone down - probably due to relocation back to Asia.

In addition, there is an entire strip mall located off of De Anza, with signs in Chinese or other Asian characters, that has been abandoned with all shops closed. Others off De Anza that cater to the Asian crowd look distressed. Its rather sad that they focused their sales efforts to one demographic only since this Depression will probably affect them even more than most.

In my neighborhood, house sales are slow with sellers holding out for their wishing price.

~Misstrial

What would break that psychology? What would make sellers realize that they are not going to get that price?

Already seeing it.. large well known employers like Sun Micro going under in 2009 as did Tandem and Ask Computers back in 'the day'.

Its been now 9 years since the Tech Peak in 2000 and so far there isnt "the next big thing coming from Silicon Valley" or wealth from stock options some have been hoping. Eventually the news of shrinking, VC funding, job force and employers will sink in.

Well Misstrail, Your right.. many from Hong Kong who settled in early to mid 90s were escaping the take over by Communist Mainland in '97-99. They thought HK was going to loose out and become a backward city in China. It turned out the Communist Party was more capitalist and pro-business friendly than the state of California. And since costs are less many tech companies have moved jobs overseas.

LOL! it wouldn't surprise me regarding the closure of malls. As was the case back in 1989-91, we had lots of distressed small retailers, restaurants, and night clubs which eventually went under.

China's growth accelerates to 8.9 percent in 3Q

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091022/ap_on_bi_ge/as_china_economy

8.9% under rough times isnt bad, more growth and jobs in China which
has a global impact...

... certainly will make double digit sooner them than us.

It's clear... China is taking our recovery, and we are giving it to them.

thomas.wong87 says

LOL! it wouldn’t surprise me regarding the closure of malls.

Yep, and it's already happening in a big way. Sunnyvale's ambitious $750M "Santana-Row" style retail/office/residential complex is now in foreclosure, without any finished space except that parking garage.

KurtS says

thomas.wong87 says

LOL! it wouldn’t surprise me regarding the closure of malls.

Yep, and it’s already happening in a big way. Sunnyvale’s ambitious $750M “Santana-Row” style retail/office/residential complex is now in foreclosure, without any finished space except that parking garage.

Indeed I heard that as well. Man, talk about wrong timing. It would have been sold out if it was done like 3 years ago.

stocksjustgoup says

It’s clear… China is taking our recovery, and we are giving it to them.

China didnt spend money on the banksters, rather on infrastructure. thats why their GDP is 8.9% in 3rd qtr.

thomas.wong87 says

Well Misstrail, Your right.. many from Hong Kong who settled in early to mid 90s were escaping the take over by Communist Mainland in ‘97-99. They thought HK was going to loose out and become a backward city in China. It turned out the Communist Party was more capitalist and pro-business friendly than the state of California. And since costs are less many tech companies have moved jobs overseas.
LOL! it wouldn’t surprise me regarding the closure of malls. As was the case back in 1989-91, we had lots of distressed small retailers, restaurants, and night clubs which eventually went under.

Hey t.w87: :)

Yeah, Marxist politicians, some well-known financial institutions, some corporations, and voters here in the USA, their thinking shaped by the 60's radical left, are in charge and are actually outdoing the communists in China. They don't think there's anything wrong with Marxism; they think the problem is that Marxism/socialism hasn't been *administered properly* in the former USSR and China and that's why its failed to one degree or another. So, things will actually be worse here in the USA as these folks attempt to outdo the Soviets and Red Chinese, if you can imagine that....

My across-the-street-neighbors in Irvine came here from China when Mao came into power. Their father was a general in the Chinese army prior to the communist take over. He and his immediate family came here at the time of the Cultural Revolution to avoid execution.

My dad was a Vietnam Vet. He told me that the Chinese communists, allied with Vietnamese communists (Viet Cong) beheaded anyone who didn't go along with their Party line in S or N Vietnam. Anyone: old grandmas, elderly men, their children - anyone who didn't kowtow to them was executed in Vietnam. A whole lot of deaths.

This country (USA) hasn't seen anything yet. The Marxists/communists rule by death.

~Misstrial

No, that's not quite right. Our problem is that corporations, especially banks, have turned the US into a communist system in which corporations get massive welfare (the $700B for banks is just a bit of it) and don't have to compete, and are not allowed to fail.

So it's not that we have state-run corporations, but rather we have corporations running the state!

And they use a false "left vs right" divide to conquer us. While we're arguing about everything BUT their takeover of government, they are busily looting the US treasury and leaving us all with the debts.

No, that’s not quite right. Our problem is that corporations, especially banks, have turned the US into a communist system in which corporations get massive welfare (the $700B for banks is just a bit of it) and don’t have to compete, and are not allowed to fail.
So it’s not that we have state-run corporations, but rather we have corporations running the state!
And they use a false “left vs right” divide to conquer us. While we’re arguing about everything BUT their takeover of government, they are busily looting the US treasury and leaving us all with the debts.

ty Patrick, I added "some well-known financial institutions" and "some corporations" to my post above.

And you are correct, there are those on both sides of the political aisle who are contributing to this.

~Misstrial

@dontgetit

BTW, things are going, we might be having “Inshoring”. China probably would offshore work to us…

Dont Get it, explain in-shoring? Does this mean that China will have to many jobs and not enough talent? or...are you referring to a influx of people from China picking up their properties and businesses bought during this downturn?

4X says

@dontgetit

BTW, things are going, we might be having “Inshoring”. China probably would offshore work to us…

Dont Get it, explain in-shoring? Does this mean that China will have to many jobs and not enough talent? or…are you referring to a influx of people from China picking up their properties and businesses bought during this downturn?

I was just kidding. Forgot to put the sarcasm cap on. Anyways, on a serious note, with so much T-bills, I dont care if they buy real estate, but I think their corporations are buying water/mineral rights all over the world. Thats pretty scary. Down the line 20-30 yrs from now, I think the country that controls the water/mineral can very well be the dominant one.

Corporations buying water rights in Bolivia did not work out so well:

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/bolivia/thestory.html

Misstrial says

No, that’s not quite right. Our problem is that corporations, especially banks, have turned the US into a communist system in which corporations get massive welfare (the $700B for banks is just a bit of it) and don’t have to compete, and are not allowed to fail.

Like I said before the "massive welfare bailout to banks" was to make your personal bank account along with other corporate, government and other business entity cash balances whole. The expected return of 'your' deposit with interest revenue to the bank by borrowers didnt happen since homeowners defaulted on their loans leaving your bank balance exposed to loses.

Had banks failed, your checking and savings account balance would have disappeared, along with your employers account who had payroll and vendor obligations. Local, state, and federal governments would be unable to pay its workers and we would be far worst. Yes! to big to fail.

Where do you think Apple, Intel, GM, State of California and Ma&Pop small business keep their money to pay their bills. And no they are not covered by FDIC or any other plan.

Sorry for the long explanation.

So it’s not that we have state-run corporations, but rather we have corporations running the state!

LIke some of Obama "friends" from the valley who keep talking about Solar and Clean Coal. While ignoring Nuke plants
which isnt in their interest.

dont_getit says

@dontgetit

BTW, things are going, we might be having “Inshoring”. China probably would offshore work to us…

Dont Get it, explain in-shoring? Does this mean that China will have to many jobs and not enough talent? or…are you referring to a influx of people from China picking up their properties and businesses bought during this downturn?

We can beg! but why would they want to ? whats in it for them ?

Mr. Robinson, who was wearing a cap and name tag identifying him as a survivor of the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941, was a seaman first class on the battleship Arizona. The ship became a watery morgue for 1,177 sailors when she was sunk in the Japanese attack that sleepy Sunday morning 50 years ago.

"The shooting war is over, but the economic war has begun," said Mr. Robinson, after meeting the President.

- circ. 1991 meeting with President George Bush remembering Pearl Harbor.

If the Chinese are moving to anywhere outside of China, you will find them in Australia which does far more export business in raw material and food stuffs. Australian economy is also expected to grow,

Australia hikes interest rates
Reserve Bank of Australia is first of G-20 central banks to raise rates as financial crisis eases.

October 6, 2009: 5:31 AM ET
SYDNEY(Reuters) -- Australia's central bank raised its key cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Tuesday and heralded more to come, saying it was safe to row-back on stimulus now that the worst danger for the economy had passed.

The Australian dollar jumped to a 14-month high and interbank futures slid as investors rushed to price in at least one more hike by Christmas, and rates above 4% in a year.

Markets elsewhere in Asia also moved to factor in expectations for more hawkish central banks.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision made it the first of the Group of 20 central banks to hike as the global financial crisis eases and came as a surprise to many analysts.

Markets, however, had been abuzz with speculation about a move given the strength of recent economic data.

"The RBA had widely advertised it was near to edging up rates from their extraordinary lows, and now it's done so," said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie.

"It will be a gradual move from an emergency rate of 3% to a still-easy 4%," he added. "If everything goes well over time, then we could get back to a more normal 5% in the next year or two."

Corporations buying water rights in Bolivia did not work out so well:
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/bolivia/thestory.html

Sure, not all pays the same dividends, but doesnt mean 100% failure. You cant really compare Bolivia to US or any other developed country:

"Bolivia is the poorest country in South America. 70% of its people live below the poverty line. Nearly one child in ten dies before the age of five. The Bolivian economy, never strong, was wrecked by hyperinflation in the 1980s."

"The water warriors who ousted Bechtel took control of the water system, vowing to run it as a human right, not as a commodity. But without new investment, they have been unable to improve or expand service."

So the capitalist Yankee comes into one of the poorest South Americans helps their nation migrate
from illegal cocaine industry, employes local workers to run the plants, create a distribution system,
teaches the population in a new trade to be self sufficient in return for a 15-17% return.

Now the local lefties "Warriors", students of Che, were angry enough to instigate economic coup d'etat calling it 'human rights'. Perhaps we should pull out such foreign investments, and let them starve for a change.

Horrible evil Yankee corporations!

"The Bolivian economy, never strong, was wrecked by hyperinflation in the 1980s.”

Were they even complaining back in the 1980s when they were shipping cocaine to the US raking in millions in profits.

I am so tired talking about this crap, when is Obama going follow through with his "Change" agenda and let the markets reset?

4X says

I am so tired talking about this crap, when is Obama going follow through with his “Change” agenda and let the markets reset?

Why would you ever think Obama is going to let the markets reset? Everything they have done is just throw money at problems - they are trying to reinflate the bubble. I don't mean this as political, but if you think Obama is going to let markets reset, you have been seriously mislead. He has always said he is going to help homeowners and "keep people in their homes." That's not letting the market reset.

Perhaps it could be posed as a question--how many big companies want the credit party to end? They're going to push for market extensions as long as possible--because that's all they know. I'm also sick of this "too big to fail" argument. "Creative destruction" is a popular "free market" concept-- provided it's not your company facing the axe.

@camping

I was being sarcastic. I dont think Mcain, Palin or Clinton would have done anything differently...the only thing that would have been executed differently would have been the amounts of money thrown that the issue and where the money wound up. In this case, Obama put a lot of ral money into the middle class tax breaks where by Mccain would have lowered taxes on businesses hoping for a trickled down of peanuts.

So, actually if i look at it that way...we are actually getting our money back. LOL

Ok, I didn't get the sarcasm.