patrick.net

@Randy H,

Check out what Scott's mom had to say (7:28 post) --I wouldn't waste any more time on him.

@SFWoman,

Excerpt from "Greetings from Idiot America"
Nov 01 05 Esquire:

"The rise of Idiot America is essentially a war on expertise. It's not so much antimodernism or the distrust of intellectual elites that Richard Hofstadter deftly teased out of the national DNA forty years ago. Both of those things are part of it. However, the rise of Idiot America today represents—for profit mainly, but also, and more cynically, for political advantage and in the pursuit of power—the breakdown of a consensus that the pursuit of knowledge is a good. It also represents the ascendancy of the notion that the people whom we should trust the least are the people who best know what they're talking about. In the new media age, everybody is a historian, or a preacher, or a scientist, or a sage. And if everyone is an expert, then nobody is, and the worst thing you can be in a society where everybody is an expert is, well, an actual expert.

In the place of expertise, we have elevated the Gut, and the Gut is a moron, as anyone who has ever tossed a golf club, punched a wall, or kicked an errant lawn mower knows."

Please SFWoman, don't... take... the... bait.... :roll:

What the Bay Area has, that the rust belt does not, is a nexus of top-tier feeder universities, a thriving and broad pure research community, a well established and world recognized capital investment infrastructure, and a lot of intangibles like weather and culture. Never forget, the BA has "died" twice before, only to be re-established in a new domain of dominance. I'm decidedly bullish on the BA, especially being a student of globalization. The irony of globalization is that local proximity only becomes more important. (I cite Greenwald's work on this subject).

There are other areas that meet similar standards: Boston, the Golden Triangle, maybe others. But this combination is rare, and enables virtuous circle economies. Why do you think Europe is subsidizing places like Sophie Antipolis et. al. to replicate the BA's model? It's to keep their best researchers, scientists, entrepreneurs and venture capitalists from moving to the BA.

(Now only if we can keep from screwing it up)

Nexis, schmexis…….the bottom line is where things end up. That is why we have 6 people from our Manila office learning how to code and maintain our application.

You are assuming today's industry, software. The BA has an ability to create new industries; a process that is already in progress. It will be a while yet, but I expect to see biotech, nanotech, or QPs to displace software as the BA's core industry in the next couple decades. Why is it whenever I'm called in to do analysis on a new venture the founders are inevitably from somewhere else, come here to have access to research facilities, talent and capital they couldn't find in Mumbai, Frankfurt, London or Tokyo?

I post the following link just to prove that 150K is NORMAL salary in Bay Area. I earn 160K per year and this is just a tiny bit above NORMAL …

I wanna work where you work, they pay me 162K? Maybe? Ok, because they pay idiot like you 160K ebbbberyting all fucked up.

Nobody mentioned that Lexus is rated number 1 in new car smell.

Nobody mentioned that Lexus is rated number 1 in new car smell.

Huh?

You know, that smell a new car has when your first get into it.

without beer, "your" = "you"

Ray W,

NYC has been like this for many decades. There are only two classes in NYC, the upper class and the lower class, and if you don't belong to any one of them, you move elsewhere. When one is young, you go to NYC to try out your luck to see if you have a shot at the upper class. By the time you are 30 and you know you won't make it, you move to a place where you can have a decent life.

That is what BA will become. Two classes left. This is not what I want it to be, but this will turn out to what it becomes. Top talents will go wherever the weather, geography, rapport structure is, regardless of what the cost is, and there are always fresh supply of new dreamers who want to strike it rich, some will do, most won't. There is nothing unsustainable about that, essentially all top metros in the world are like this. You think middle class can make a good living in London or Paris, or even Shanghai?

In case anyone’s not been listening to the news, the Vallco shopping center roof fell in today!

Vallco, Condotino?

Perhaps there is no housing bubble. It is a housing fortress. However, some crane falls through the roof and there goes the housing fortress. :)

Ray W Says:

I work in software also, but I don’t think everyone in my company is making over 100k. Maybe a few but most in the 60 to 85k range.

This where I part company with most people in the Bay Area. This place isn’t that special. We are losing people and jobs because arrogance runs deep and swift and it is sucking the jobs and people down.

Just as the Steelbelt turned into the Rustbelt because of cost and the unions, the Bay Area is going to lose to other areas for the pretty much the same reasons except replace unions with liberals.

*************Good Post**************

I heard one of America's leading theoretical physicists, Dr. Michio Kaku, say on a radio show a while back, something to the effect that Moore's law--about doubling computing capacity every six months--will eventually make chips so cheap that profits will dry up, and Silicon Valley will eventually become a high-tech ghost town.

His case was a little more compelling and comprehensive but one wonders about cheaper labor in other places.

I wouldn't mind moving back when housing prices tumble to sane levels.

Ray W Says:

I work in software also, but I don’t think everyone in my company is making over 100k. Maybe a few but most in the 60 to 85k range.

This where I part company with most people in the Bay Area. This place isn’t that special. We are losing people and jobs because arrogance runs deep and swift and it is sucking the jobs and people down.

Just as the Steelbelt turned into the Rustbelt because of cost and the unions, the Bay Area is going to lose to other areas for the pretty much the same reasons except replace unions with liberals.

*************Good Post**************

I heard one of America's leading theoretical physicists, Dr. Michio Kaku, say on a radio show a while back, something to the effect that Moore's law--about doubling computing capacity every six months--will eventually make chips so cheap that profits will dry up, and Silicon Valley will eventually become a high-tech ghost town.

His case was a little more compelling and comprehensive but one wonders about cheaper labor in other places.

I wouldn't mind moving back when housing prices tumble to sane levels.

ScottC's Mom,

Thanks so much for picking up Scottie at the Security Desk! We weren't sure what meds to give him and thought perhaps going next door to get something "medicinal" to rub on his gums might help. Really, he was no bother at all!

Sheesh, anyway "knocking down HUGE commissions" seldom equates to making a contribution. The guys that were the lead underwriters for Global Crossings probably had a fat takedown too. That didn't make it a good investment! BIG RIPS! Everyone else struggles to do more with less and realt-whores (see C/L link) struggle to do as little as possible for as much compensation as the market will bear. The perfect relationship! Can I please cover ALL of your prospecting expenses until your next "thick deal" please can I, can I?

While not quite a "day late and a dollar short" the first article linked for today gives about all the evidence I need to continue the cry for overhauling the entire RE industry.

Evidently of 20 recent sales in So. FL, 6 sales were "doctored" as to their final sales price by as much as 75K over what TAX RECORDS reflect. Because the "agent" can not fudge the square footage of the home or lot the one thing they can manipulate is the sales price! The incredible part is that the author (lic. FL agent) hasn't been able to get anyone's interest. Like, what's the big deal? Every one that bought a home in that area after the willful corruption of this data should contact the Law Offices of! People. Can you BELIEVE this? This is a direct attempt to keep the bubble inflated by whatever means available! Legal or otherwise. This whole thing is such a deliberate mess that we don't know where to start. We would have to be introducing legislation at every level of government, directed at every individual or group that has virtually any connection to your RE transaction. Could take awhile.

SFWoman,

I KNEW Dan Brown was a fraud!

@Ray W,

It's all in the spirit of healthy debate. What we all agree on is that affordability in the BA is a huge problem. Thus the reason we're all here discussing the ongoing correction.

SFWoman,

My daughters got me the "pre-quel" for Christmas but with taxes and all I haven't gotten around to it yet. The Holy Grail, or is it graille is all very fine but the quest will have to go without me for now. I find myself much more interested in watching RE IMPLODE! The first article linked today got my blood boiling. Do have any idea how many people have been fined, censured or flat booted out of the securities industry for reporting bond prices "out of sequence"? Granted some where done for economic gain or to "win favor" with that special client but most were honest omissions where there was nothing to be gained! If a bond issue was "falling apart" and you showed the "last sale" at a greatly inflated price or held it in your "hip pocket" to give the appearance of price support you would be soooo busted! But in "realty world" I guess this passes for "taking initiative". There is NO COMPLIANCE SUPERVISION in real estate. Anything goes.

SFWoman, PS

Thanks for the feedback! My question though is will the major RE firms, lenders, title companies and appraise-whores simply view this as "the cost of doing business" much as Ameriquest has done by becoming a "serial settler" and just going on status quo?

David Barry (the Open MLS Act guy) will probably be willing to guest-author a blog thread here in a couple of months, once he gets through the current round of state ballot initiative obligations.

I'm noting that the CAR and it's interest groups are already gathering for the defense. I'm seeing things like "a slimy trial lawyer is trying to keep people from pursuing the American Deam(tm)" kind of stuff.

Randy H,

Any idea as to just how much Mr. Barry (St. David) will be able to share? I know that fiduciary obligations kept you from being able to "divulge" certain sensitive issues here. Just a quick aside; there was a fellow here in OR that took on the almighty Public Employees Union and as far as I know they have vandalized his group's headquarters, seized some of his personal assets (or tied them up in court) forced him to pay fines and court costs and driven him from the OR political scene. Other than that his life is pretty normal.

SQT,

Given that Sacto is like "ground zero" for the crash this 7% YTD appreciation must be outside of the fallout zone. How far can radiation travel anyways?

SQT,

Suspicious? I counted 25 Zip Codes (some of which had 50-75%+ reduction in sales volume) maybe 4 Zips that showed any kind of an increase and yet prices are generally up? Oh, this I gotta see! I'd love to have the access to drill down into THIS data. This has gone way beyond tweaking or skewing the results. This is "sculpting" for crying out loud! This is exactly what realt-whores have promised the buying public. "Oh, volumes may taper off, but don't look for any big correction in home prices". They're trying to "pencil whip" their way out of this!

How do I know this data is "tortured"? Well given that the Santa Barbara Realt-whores are no longer reporting data it's not MY credibility that's at stake here! Let's do what every auditor does. Rather than take on the whole pack of lies let's deal with them one by one, look for the loose thread, tug on it and watch as this thing unravels.

O.K, we're not contesting all of your numbers or even saying that there is anything less than above board going on here. We JUST want to look at your closings for the month of JAN for the XXXXX Zip Code. That's all. See, now that wasn't so hard! Peck peck peck. Oh JUST one quick question!

Jack,

David Bach, author of "The Automatic Back-Peddler" at again is he? He quickly ends the article on a high note with that chic upper east side condo being at 2mil didn't he? Does that mean I should buy it on 28FEB06?

No bad news … people like this (H1B ASIAN) are compelled to buy due to immense pressure from wife and peers … I would be happy to see them servicing massive debt in a rising interest rate environment …

Now that's just cruel --and I like it! :twisted: :mrgreen:

No bad news … people like this (H1B ASIAN) are compelled to buy due to immense pressure from wife and peers … I would be happy to see them servicing massive debt in a rising interest rate environment …

Won't they just walk, I mean fly, away?

Off-Topic:

Peter P, any strategies for playing GOOG volatility with options at the moment? Wish I'd bought those 360 March puts when they were at $2.00.

From the Vallco roof collapse article:

"When complete, the renovation will include additional retail space, a 16-screen AMC cineplex, an ice rink, an upscale bowling venue, a slate of fine restaurants, and multimillion-dollar condominiums and townhouses."

Multimillion-dollar condos? Who would pay that much to LIVE AT THE MALL?!?! Also, if you really wanted to live at the mall you could buy at Santana Row for much less. It's all because of Todai, right? Is that it?

Further, I think a mall condo could be dangerous long term. Mall areas tend to decline over time - new malls open, etc. What if Vallco goes into the dumps again after the renovation? Then what is your multi-million dollar McCondo worth? Not much.

Although if Nordie's gets some condos going at Stanford I might move in just to stalk the sale rack.

Randy H,

But GOOG has a 12 mo. T/P of $490!

What did you think of SQT's stats? Some Sacto Zip's w/78% declines in sales, but prices? Holding the line. Pretty neat trick huh? So based on what realtors have been beating us over the head with for the last 6 years supply and demand should start kicking in here, no?

Peter P, any strategies for playing GOOG volatility with options at the moment? Wish I’d bought those 360 March puts when they were at $2.00.

Randy, 360 seems to be a rather solid support (it is the confluence of two fib levels), it was violated a few times but the stock quickly snap back below the level. The market seems to be in denial, I will not surprised that it may rally above 400 just to begin the long descend.

Regarding volatility, I think the IV is still quite low relative to the stock movements, so I am not going to sell naked options. :)

Further, I think a mall condo could be dangerous long term. Mall areas tend to decline over time - new malls open, etc. What if Vallco goes into the dumps again after the renovation? Then what is your multi-million dollar McCondo worth? Not much.

Very true. Ghost town condos with collapsing roofs. :)

But GOOG has a 12 mo. T/P of $490!

What? I heard $2000!

Multimillion-dollar condos? Who would pay that much to LIVE AT THE MALL?!?!

Same reason why there are people buying condos in Santa Row. This reminds me of a line in "The Simpsons", in which there's a carnival being demolished to build a condo. The sign posted on the construction: "Condos for Rich Idiots".

Also, if you really wanted to live at the mall you could buy at Santana Row for much less. It’s all because of Todai, right? Is that it?

By having more people living near Todai's, the number of its patrons will increase, so Todai's will charge you less (say, $21/each) for dinner.

I'd say it's a bargain. Take it!

DinOR,

Realtors(tm) manipulating statistics? No, couldn't be. It's not like the State of California has been questioning the CAR's "official" economic reports lately or anything. All one needs to do to convince themselves of the misinformation from the Realtor(tm) industry is see how readily they swap the two averaging techniques when it suits their purpose (mean versus median). They also never provide any descriptive statistics, like std dev, variance, or confidence.

In other words, their "data" is useless.

You cannot pay me to live in Santana Row.

Stanford Shopping Mall? Perhaps. That mall has survived the test of time.

PS,

The Realtor(tm) cartel is not beyond extreme measures to protect their syndicate. There is an OpenMLS project at www.openmls.org which was hobbled by the RE legal arm. Funny how they villify lawyers on one hand but quickly resort to their own legal pit bulls at the same time.

I believe, but can't back up with anything I can find at the moment, the CAR has been the target of anti-slapp actions recently. For those not aware, CA has laws prohibiting slapps (strategic lawsuits against public participation). In a nutshell, you can get a suit thrown out if you can show it is intended to cull your public participation in democracy, and then countersue for damages and penalties. Disclaimer: IANAL. Perhaps one of our legal experts knows more about this.