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Yield curve


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2006 Mar 7, 4:00am   18,799 views  183 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Long bond rate is climing and it appears that the yield curve is steepening. What does it mean?

At the very least, fixed-mortgage rate is going up. In the Bay Area, this may not be very relevant because most mortgages are adjustable. However, will there be even more bubble media coverage because of the perceived correlation between long rate and the housing market?

#housing

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81   OO   2006 Mar 7, 12:46pm  

Half of Belmont is on the fault line, and San Mateo is quite mixed (some crime). Millbrae again is an airport community, the only nice areas up the peninsula from geographical point of view is Portola Valley. The other neighborhoods are just hyped up due to its commute distance right in the middle of SF and San Jose. But honestly, I can't imagine why people want to pay a premium to be near a major international airport.

82   OO   2006 Mar 7, 12:51pm  

Los Altos has a better brand than Palo Alto, but you really want to drill down to the details of WHERE in Los Altos and Palo Alto one wants to live. It is after all about what you see and feel every day.

There are parts of Los Altos that is very Mountain View like, close to apartments, non-descript, and the nice part (bordering Los Altos Hills and Western Cupertino, where the downtown is). Parts of Palo Alto is nice, but again, some part around Oregon Expressway feels more like Mountain View and San Jose than Palo Alto. You can say the same thing about almost every West Valley community. Part of Cupertino near foothill is nice, but the rest is just San Jose, the same applies to Los Gatos. The consistenly nice neighborhood all the way through is Monte Sereno, and hence then price tag. The part of Saratoga north of 85 is just like any part in San Jose, and the school district is in San Jose, so there is really no advantage in acquiring the Saratoga address.

83   OO   2006 Mar 7, 12:56pm  

It is not the China-based engineers who are flipping properties in North America. It is the owner / entrepreneur of those outsourcing companies that are doing so, they are typically based in the US/Canada which makes it convenient for them to look for outsourcing projects (yeah, now you know who your anger should be directed at).

I know of two such owners of IT outsourcing firms with operations in China who are flipping properties in Palo Alto and Cupertino. Chinese love Palo Alto more than Cupertino, it is just more expensive to get into the former.

84   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 1:01pm  

By the way, what makes Burlingame so desirable? I’m not all that familiar with the towns in north San Mateo county. I know Hillsborough is nice (and very expensive).

I was told that Burlingame is for those who like Hillsborough but cannot afford Hillsborough. :)

I like some San Mateo town because people are more mature. San Jose looks like a third world country.

85   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 1:02pm  

surfer-x and I are the same guy, but he’s the half from the alternate universe where Spock has a beard.

I see. Mirror Mirror.

86   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 1:04pm  

I guess one advantage that those towns have is that you can commute to either SF or Silicon Valley from there. Does this explain why the prices there are higher than in Santa Clara county?

Probably.

87   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 1:06pm  

Burlingame is the ONLY airport community that I have seen that is considered “attractive”, in other cities, people can’t pay enough to get away.

I thought planes usually take off towards the bay and land from the south. I bet they rarely fly directly above Burlingame. Can someone confirm?

88   OO   2006 Mar 7, 1:50pm  

Fewlesh,

yeah, that strip actually starts from Los Altos Hills, along the foothill, cutting down through western Cupertino, Saratoga, and all the way down to Los Gatos along Highway 9, that area is what you really expect where 1M+ properties should be. I still can't get used to thinking any 40-year home of 1500 sqft on a 5000 sft lot going for 1M.

89   Girgl   2006 Mar 7, 1:51pm  

Peter P Says:
They should be prosecuted to the fullest extent.

These folks know that, if caught, they won't even get their wrists slapped. Nothing to lose, a lot to win. It's a no-brainer.
I can't imagine there's shame in the equation, but probably some high-fiving if it works. :-)

90   Girgl   2006 Mar 7, 1:58pm  

Here's a page with details about what documentation is now required to enroll a child in one of these highly desireable schools:

http://www.fuhsd.org/regINFOns.htm

91   OO   2006 Mar 7, 1:59pm  

Actually you guys are giving the Chinese and Indian families too much credit.

The first generation Chinese and Indian families save like crazy at a serious peril of their quality of life, many of them live the life of a third world country while earning a first world salary, that's how they save up with so much downpayment.

Now, one generation down, the situation is entirely different. Disgusted with their parents' obsessive saving habits, the next generation grow up no different from any white Americans and sometimes they overract by being an obsessive spender. I have this ABC friend who started carrying an 80K-and-growing credit card loan in his early 20s.

So what you are competing against is the survival instinct of a typical first generation immigrant, who always work harder. Then all are on the same playing field.

92   OO   2006 Mar 7, 2:05pm  

Girgl,

wow, that is stringent. I heard the FUHSD has a lot of address frauds, so they are ramping up on the investigation. Perhaps we can all start a business here as an address cop (as opposed to a library cop on Seinfeld?), lol.

93   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 2:16pm  

I FIRMLY agree with seatlledude … there is NO HOPE to compete with CHINESE and INDIAN famlies (to own a home in Bay Area).

Just buy whatever they will not buy. How about a luxury 2/2 condo with asymmetrically sized bedrooms? In ten years, boomers will be downsizing to these condos. Who cares about school districts?

94   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 2:20pm  

I’m in menlo park and I hear airplanes all the time. It depends on their traffic and their holding patterns.

I live in San Jose downtown and I cannot even open my windows at night.

95   Peter P   2006 Mar 7, 2:23pm  

I have always landed coming up the coast from the south, but I think we fly toward the South San Francisco Industrial City or whatever it is sign when we take off.

Yes, I think 28R/L are the primary landing runways. Do you usually take off in a 747? I think smaller planes usually take off using 1R/L towards the bay.

96   B.A.C.A.H.   2006 Mar 7, 4:42pm  

China and India are something like 2/5ths of the world population. Even though they are poor countries, the small percentage that comprise their wealthy is a huge population of elites (and let's not forget all the Chinese in places like Singapore, Taiwan, etc.).

Of course who can blame them? "Tech" has built Bangalore and Hsinchu science park, etc., they've seen it with their own eyes. They smell, or at least think they smell, opportunity in Silicon Valley. Ours will be a desirable location for them to crowd into as long as there's a perception that we have a better quality of life than crowded cities like Shanghai and Bombay and as long as there's a perception among them that "Silicon Valley" means opportunity. High cost of living? We're talking about the "elites" in those countries of two billion. NOT the huddled masses. Sorry, elites are well capitalized compared to humble locals who grew up in "Valley of the Heart's Delight". When the common perception among these elites is that there's no opportunity to "get ahead here" AND our quality of life is worse than smoggy polluted crowded places like Bombay, THEN the young elites will stop coming here, stop crowding out and pricing out the locals.

Think it'll happen soon? Have you been to those crowded cities in Asia? Don't hold your breath. We're still far from being that crowded and polluted.

97   SJ_jim   2006 Mar 7, 5:17pm  

"People buy these houses for 30+ years. It is pretty rare to see turnover. A lot of the people are the old silicon valley money before the dot-commies ruined the place."

But if you drive off of HWY 9 in Monte Sereno, you will see quite a few for sale signs (some pending). I just did this last weekend.
Oh, and there was snow at Saratoga Gap (probably more this weekend).

98   OO   2006 Mar 7, 5:49pm  

Sunnyvale_Renter,

wishing for the realty market to tank so that foolish investors/speculators and irresponsible borrowers will pay for what they deserve is one thing, wishing for a maladie to fall upon a whole region taking innocent people's lives is another. I don't necessarily sympathesize these people enough to do volunteer work myself, but I find it disgusting that someone in a much better situation by the luck of birth wishing much more unfortunate people in the other parts of the world death and illness. They didn't do anything to cause your pain, why should you be so mean to these people who were born to an unfortunate place to begin with?

99   lunarpark   2006 Mar 8, 12:33am  

"And Cupertino is not what Cupertino used to be."

I know what you mean. In my teenage years I used to hang out at Vallco and flirt with the drummer from Half Church who worked at Rainbow Records. Good times.

Honestly I would love to leave the Bay Area in about two years but I don't know WHERE TO GO. So I stay, for now...

100   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 2:28am  

I’m thin, but have really long legs so I am squashed! I wish I took off in 747s! I think they are 767s?

I like 767s. Have you tried British Airways' Economy Plus? My friend said that it is pretty good. It is priced between economy and business.

Economy class is becoming inhumane.

101   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 2:35am  

Funny how a discussion on “Yield Curve” qickly morphs into “Class Struggle”. In Bay Area “class struggle” is so apparent even with SO CALLED HIGH SALARIES (I earn 160K per year).

Ha ha, 160K is nothing. If you cannot make at least 1M a year doing absolutely nothing (other than perhaps playing golf and going fishing if you feel like) you belong to the WRONG class.

There is no such thing as high salary. The fact that you are SALARIED means that you will go absolutely no where.

102   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 2:37am  

Holidays - a legal requirement anyway

Opportunity for Professional Growth - more room to be given more responsibilities with the same pay

Challenging and Rewarding Work Environment - work until you go crazy, thinking that work is good, debt is wealth.

Fun Atmosphere - beef chow fun anyone?

103   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 2:39am  

Be it 25K, 50K, 100K, 200K a year, it is still a fucking rat race!

104   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:02am  

Stocks Tumble, Bond Yields Climb As Interest Rate Worries Linger
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060308/wall_street.html?.v=13

This news makes me happy ….

This is just the beginning.

Look, if we do not profit from the fall we will go down with the rest.

105   inquiring mind   2006 Mar 8, 3:02am  

"I hate to repeat:

I earn 160K in Bay Area and have NO HOPE of owning a home …. "

Perhaps not in Hillsborough or Los Altos Hills. But "no hope"? Hardly - you have to admit that is somewhat of a hyperbole. You most certainly can afford A home, perhaps not a GREAT home or even a single family home, even at these insane prices. I know people who have bought in the last year who make considerably less than you.

106   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:06am  

I know people who have bought in the last year who make considerably less than you.

Scary, isn't it? The "28% - 33% gross" guideline was established with a reason.

107   inquiring mind   2006 Mar 8, 3:10am  

At 33% of gross income, "ha ha" can afford a $4400 mortgage payment. There are PLENTY of places he could qualify for. Didn't he also say he has something like $150K in cash? If he is single with no dependents, he should have a hell of a lot more saved than that at that level of a salary. I only make $63K/year and have $120K in the bank.

108   DinOR   2006 Mar 8, 3:14am  

I just wanted to thank everyone for their support. Today I have been clean and sober for 2 years! That's right, it's been 2years since I've set foot in a Home Depot! I haven't so much as touched a rubber pond liner or decorative pre-cast concrete block let alone the harder stuff like newel posts and pergraniteel! For me, it all started innocently enough w/re-runs of This Old House but that led to Hometime and by the time I found myself watching Flip this House, I knew I'd hit rock bottom. That's why I always carry this galvanized 10 penny nail with me. To remind me of just how low I'd sunk, and how far I've come. Thanks everyone.

109   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:27am  

At 33% of gross income, “ha ha” can afford a $4400 mortgage payment. There are PLENTY of places he could qualify for.

It is 4400 PITIH.

Assuming property tax at 7000/yr, HOA + Insurance at 5000/yr, 30yr FRM at 6.35%, 4400 will support a 550K mortgage. Even with 150K down, that is about 700K. Perhaps a condo or a small townhouse in an okay neighborhood?

110   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:29am  

To remind me of just how low I’d sunk, and how far I’ve come. Thanks everyone.

Give yourself some credit. ;)

111   inquiring mind   2006 Mar 8, 3:33am  

"Assuming property tax at 7000/yr, HOA + Insurance at 5000/yr, 30yr FRM at 6.35%, 4400 will support a 550K mortgage. Even with 150K down, that is about 700K. Perhaps a condo or a small townhouse in an okay neighborhood?"

You guys need to get out more - Bay Area does not mean just Palo Alto, Mountain View, Cupertino. A $700K house, sans HOA, is possible and in a decent neighborhood in a lot of the East Bay. Sorry, I just have a problem with people trying to get sympathy where none is warranted - "ha ha" is most certainly doing better than most folks out there.

112   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:36am  

A $700K house, sans HOA, is possible and in a decent neighborhood in a lot of the East Bay.

Where? In Fremont, condos and townhouses are already in the high 600's.

113   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:39am  

It is not easy to find actual houses for 700K. Recently, many people spend more than half of their incomes on houses. It is unwise to fight with the kamizakes.

114   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:41am  

I only make $63K/year and have $120K in the bank.

Congrats. If you are able to live on less, you will be out of the rat race sooner. High salary is not necessarily a bless. Being salaried is the curse!

115   inquiring mind   2006 Mar 8, 3:49am  

"Where? In Fremont, condos and townhouses are already in the high 600’s."

I just did an MLS (ebrdi.com) for Fremont. As of right now, ACTIVE listings:

5 under $300K (all 1 bedroom condos obviously)
65 $300K-$399K
45 $400K-$499K
54 $500K-$599K, 28 of which are detached
72 $600K-$699K, 59 of which are detached

Again, get out of Silicon Valley central and it IS a little bit better...

116   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:51am  

Funny, they do not turn up in my searches.

117   inquiring mind   2006 Mar 8, 3:52am  

So there is not one property under $700K in Fremont when you search ? What do you use to search?

118   Peter P   2006 Mar 8, 3:54am  

So there is not one property under $700K in Fremont when you search ? What do you use to search?

ZipRealty. Perhaps I should adjust some parameters.

119   inquiring mind   2006 Mar 8, 3:57am  

Search at realtor.com - they're there.

120   lunarpark   2006 Mar 8, 4:01am  

Fremont? Oh my. I think I would rather move to the Midwest.

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