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Does macroeconomic data finally foretell a hard landing in US housing prices?


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2006 Mar 26, 5:06am   59,164 views  261 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   ignore (0)  

The US edition of the weekend Financial Times ran the following front-page headline: Plunge in sales of new homes stokes fear of a hard landing. The on-line edition headlines Signs of slowdown in US housing. Sales of new US homes plunged 10.5 per cent last month, prices fell and the stock of unsold homes hit its highest level in 10 years, providing the clearest indications yet that the red-hot housing market may be cooling.

A big slowdown could prompt consumers to cut spending and boost savings. Such a shift could help reduce the current account deficit but at the cost of significantly slower growth.

The consensus of unbiased economists and analysts is largely that the US housing market is poised for a slowdown/correction. As of yet, however, there is little agreement as to whether the correction will be a "soft landing" or a sharper crash. In fact, most financial media has tended to emphasize reasoning for a soft landing. That is, until recently. Over the past couple of months articles warning of a sharp correction in US real estate have migrated from obscure columns buried deep inside to large, front-page headlines.

More interesting quotes from this weekend's FT:

* New home sales slid to 1.08m, the fourth consecutive fall. The drop was led by the West Coast, where sales dived 29 per cent, while the price of new homes ... fell 2.9 per cent from a year ago.
* With a flood of new properties on the market, at the present pace of sales, it will take 6.3 months to clear the backlog.
* New home sales are softening fast ... Affordability has declined to a near 15-year low.
* ...economists stressed that the slowdown in February was focused on the West Coast...
* Ian Morris, economist at HSBC, said he believed a hard landing for the housing market over the next 12 months was increasingly likely. "It would not be a surprise if the West Coast were the first market to go.
* The West Coast has the most richly valued property in the US.
* The median house price in California is 9 times median earnings; the average for the past 20 years was 5 times. ... The next most highly valued area is Washington DC at 7.9 times earnings.
* Many buyers have been forced to take on more exotic mortgage products, such as interest-only or negative amortization loans.
* The rising stock of unsold homes could lower prices still further. Research at HSBC suggests seven month's supply of unsold housing will mean a soft landing for the market. But if the figure rises towards nine months it will be a hard landing.

So the question at hand: is broad sentiment finally turning? Many of us have been calling for [what we see as irresistable] reversion to theoretical mean prices/historically supportable averages. Is psychology finally accepting economic reality? What about the "hot-market" Trolls we get here? Last gasp of a bubble-industry?

--Post by Randy H

I'm also running a thread on this subject on my blog. I invite anyone interested in discussing more in depth economic theory, models, or supportable predictions to visit there. (I'm using TrackBack to synchronize with the discussion here.)

#housing

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182   jtfrankl   2006 Mar 28, 10:34am  

I went to a private school in NC (the state). My mom is a teacher who worked a part time job on top of that, father is a salesman- pretty solidly middle class. The school had regular fund drives but there was no big pressure to donate. They call, you say no. Pretty simple. My school got a few million dollar donations over the past few years and chose to spend money on things like mahogany lockers for seniors, multiple tennis courts (i think 8), a gym to make an NBA team proud, etc. They will not be getting any donations from me now or in the future. It is good to be hungry, you are doing them a favor!

183   OO   2006 Mar 28, 10:47am  

Joe Schmoe,

it depends, you need to do research on that school that you are interested in. The snaring attitude is not confined to private schools, in fact, it is more prevalent in public schools of desirable neighborhoods. I don't have to worry about it yet, but I have heard stories about certain Palo Alto public elementary schools being very demanding on parent donations, and if the dad doesn't pay up, the teachers will call upon the kid less, although very subtle still noticeable.

The teachers don't make much around here, seeing parents driving their kids in BMWs and Lexuses day in and day out while they cannot even afford to buy an one-bedder condo may not be the best feelings in the world. Also, these "donations" are usually paid out as a housing allowance to subsidize their low pay so as the keep the most talented teachers around.

184   Peter P   2006 Mar 28, 10:47am  

Private Christian shooling is a great way to avoid the disgusting lib left crap and put your kid in a safe learning environment. There is God, discipline, conformity, heritage and structure.

Although I do not label people as "lib left", I have to agree that knowing God is a good thing for the development of the child.

185   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 10:50am  

Joe Schmoe
I live in S Cal (obviously) and am well versed in the public school/private school thing. We made the concious choice to go public for elementary. There is something wholesome about public elementary...we are the world..tolerance..all kinds of sweet, caring parents. If you read, don't worry, your kids will learn to read. We moved to a great neighborhood for the school. Luckily, the house appreciation was *excellent*. Kids in elementary are safe, and if they are smart, they will rise to the top regardless. For middle school, however, we have gone private. Much better peer group(and in middle, peer group means a lot)and you need to be positioned to feed into the *right* high school. Our son is positioned to go to Notre Dame High in the Valley. Great school..and yes...lots of drugs...but in high school...if you want drugs..its always easy,they're everywhere. So...my son is at the top 5% and WANTS to go Ivy League...so he needs the proper High School to get there. Positioning is everything.
Also,we donate very little to the school past tuition...and nobody has scoffed at us..and no suffering grades..only straight A's. :)
Feel free to ask questions if you want.

186   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 11:00am  

Yes, Christian Private school has been WONDERFUL...and there all all kinds there...even some liberals and tree huggers...but then this is Calif! I love the diversity and wouldn't want it to be too whitebread, vanilla, boring.
Public school,however, for elementary teaches some amazing lessons in tolerance and that we're all not really that different. Public school has to deal with special needs kids and I think it's invaluable for kids to be exposed to and even friends with a handicapped kid,visually impaired kid, or a kid whos needy in another way. Compassion at a young age is a beautiful thing and may just last a lifetime.

187   Peter P   2006 Mar 28, 11:01am  

I still consider the year my daughter learned to drive, the worst year of my life. Middle school is hormones and boys talk to girls, high school is cars, drugs, car wrecks, funerals, parties, “Mommmmm, can I go….”

Legal driving age ought to be raised to 21.

188   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 11:04am  

Newsfreak
Oh no! Is that what I have to look forward to??
I guess we lose some of our control when they drive!
Mines 13 and I'm not looking forward to it!

189   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 11:11am  

Yes. I actually like the noise. Life is juicy around here.

190   jtfrankl   2006 Mar 28, 11:12am  

I am not sure that I understand the positive aspects of "teaching" conformity (there's an oxymoron- teaching = showing someone how to think (fish?), conforming = blindly accepting another's viewpoint). History is the story of non-conformists, including Jesus, if in fact he did exist.

191   Joe Schmoe   2006 Mar 28, 11:24am  

SFWoman, Linda, NABNALB, Owneroccupier, BAP33-

Thank you very much. That is a relief, and I very much appreciate the advice. Thank you.

It's funny, I am looking for LESS diversity where my children's education is concerned. I am a working class midwestern white guy, my wife is a formerly wealthy hispanic (her family lost it all when the Communists took over). We live in a community that is almost 70% Asian. I figure we've got the diversity angle covered!

I want a school that is very traditional. The three R's all the way, ties and blazers if possible, strict decorum and good manners. I am not worried about the academics, my kids seem pretty smart and I am sure they will do well. Mostly I want a place that will teach them to behave like civilized people and give them manners and a sense of decorum.

I have thought about religious schools and am not at all opposed the idea, especially since we are conservative. However, while I actually place greater importance on non-academic factors where selecting a school for my kids is concerned, the academics are still very important. Here in my town, the super strict religious schools aren't that great academically, and the academically good religious schools are pretty liberal. I know that it is different in other parts of the country, but that is the way it is here.

The downside to these elite private schools is, of course, elitism and a sense of entitlement. You sometimes encouter decadence, too; one of my old coworkers sends his kid to a school with lots of children of Hollywood stars, and that would make me uncomfortable. I thought long and hard about sending my kids to one of these schools, but in the end I just think the education is worth it. I will do my utmost to prevent them from becoming little preppie shits; trips back home to Chicago, a small allowance, and a few summers working on a landscaping crew with illegal aliens should see to that. And if there are too many drugs, etc., we'll move. For now, though, I think we can do this.

192   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 11:24am  

Oh Newsfreak! You have suh a way with words! :)

193   surfer-x   2006 Mar 28, 11:30am  

I think historically the existence of Jesus is well established, the debate between people would be as to the issue of his divinity.

Jeebus loves all of you.

tinyurl.com/2a5vv

194   Peter P   2006 Mar 28, 11:31am  

I have thought about religious schools and am not at all opposed the idea, especially since we are conservative.

Well, it is good to be in a school that is not afraid to teach creationism at least as an alternative to evolution.

195   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 11:33am  

Joe Schmoe
It's true about the celebrities and the decadence. My kid thought it was normal to grow up and see all of his friends mothers and fathers on TV! The more expensive the school is, the more celebs. Do you want your kid to be the poorest one there? Or go to school with Robert Downey Jrs kid?(example only) Publicly F-cked up parents??? Talk about a drug culture. In LA it's hard to insulate from that. Entitlement is not only in the welfare culture...but in the celebrity culture on the opposite end of the $ scale. ...and it isn't pretty..or good for kids.

196   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 11:39am  

SF
I sat on an ivy league west coast schools admission committee for a few years. The book ‘A for Admission’ by Michele Hernandez is pretty good.

Thank you. I'll look into it

Newsfreak

Yes. I shall bend like a reed in the wind...on good days. I know Santa Cruz well. My dad had a condo by there for a while. A lot of piercings.
But I don't have anything against piercings...just drugs combined with teens. That sounds like a bad road.

197   StuckInBA   2006 Mar 28, 11:47am  

I apologize to divert from current topic to something related to the actual thread :-) (Just kidding, being a parent I really liked the schood discussions.)

Why is the mortgage rate tied - somehow - to US trasury bond ? In terms of risk an MBS is as far away from US Treasury as stock of GE to GOOG. So a buyer would demand completely different risk premiums on both. Just because US Trasury seem more safe on a given day, does not mean that writing a new mortgage is safer.

So even if the yield on 10 year treasure does not move, the mortgage rate can increase substantially.

(This may be a good time for the more informed folks to suggest a free web based primer on bonds)

198   OO   2006 Mar 28, 12:24pm  

Pete,

not so fast yet. The Fed certainly wants to talk tought. Talking is also a very important tactic, the former Maestro Greenspan is known for his trademark murky talk to spin your head round and round, while our new Chief's style is yet to be decided. My assessment is, Ben is still trying to overcome his helicopter image so he had to appear particularly hawkish towards inflation, particularly in his speeches. Also, he may be overcompensating for it as well.

So far he has left the door open for both possiblities. My hunch is he needs another hike to assert his ego (see who's in charge here), and we will be on our way to rate cut starting as early as 2007. In 2007, the Fed will get a first taste of how reliant our economy is on RE when the first significant bunch of ARM reset happens.

Hard landing won't be visible in the first 12 months, especially in the BA. It won't be exciting at all in the initial phase when the weakest flippers are weeded out. The real excitement will come in 2008 when the biggest wave of ARM reset hits, which will last all the way into 2009, the tail end of the reset. Then, it is up to too many factors that we cannot possibly forsee or model today to determine how fast the bubble deflates and we can get back on our feet again.

But this blog will have to run another 3 years for sure, from the Bay Area crash continues to the Bay Area crash still continues to I can't believe it, the Bay Area crash is still going on.

199   OO   2006 Mar 28, 1:57pm  

Returning,

welcome back. Just sit tight in a nice rental home as your watch the tide turns. The housing price is ridiculous I agree, but here you get very reasonable rentals.

I totally understand what you mean. The people here are the number 1 reason why I stay in the bay area.

Haha,

you really shouldn't buy anything before the last tail end of reset is over. I won't look at anything seriously until 2010. I expect to upgrade or buy a piece of land outright by 2011/2012.

200   Garth Farkley   2006 Mar 28, 2:07pm  

Newsfreak,

I would defend to the death your right to call this country "Amerika." And I mean that literally--like so many other men and women who have served this country in combat.

That doesn't mean your catchphrase isn't offensive. It is.

I just believe that the answer to hate speech is not less speech but more speech. So I'm exercising my own 1st amendment right to let you know.

201   Randy H   2006 Mar 28, 2:17pm  

But living in Woodside is less elitist than going to a private school?

In her universe, yes.

But doesn't Woodside HS catch all of South of Woodside Road and lower Emerald Hills unincorporated Redwood City? I didn't think Woodside HS was really all that good compared to places like Palo Alto HS.

202   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 2:22pm  

-Schmed
+Schmend Rick

203   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 2:36pm  

@SFWoman, thanks for the tax/state data link --lots of excellent data.

@Randy H, thanks for the Google spellcheck toolbar link. I'm embarrassed to admit I'd never heard of it.

RE: public vs. private education, I don't really have enough time to do this issue justice. However, as someone who has had personal experience with many different aspects of the U.S. education systems, (except I haven't attended a private elementary school --not for long anyway), I can say the following:

--Public education can be every bit as good as private (if not better) if you live in a community where parents take an active role in their children's education and overall well being. This is a far more important predictor of your children's future happiness and success than money, IMO. I'm from a working class family and a product of CA's public education system and yet I still managed to attend an excellent private college (on scholarship, student loans & work-study). It's not easy, but it can be done --even by relatively poor families.

--I also recognize that public education in CA has deteriorated in most neighborhoods since I was growing up (1970s-80s). In some cases, the decline has been pretty drastic. During my 3-year stint as a public school teacher (early 90s), I personally saw how many school administrators & union bureaucrats had politicized the curriculum to an unacceptable degree, with PCness. I also witnessed how the public money was being grossly misspent and outright wasted. Those out there not from L.A. can Google "Belmont Learning Center" --a perfect metapahor for L.A. Unified S.D. if I ever saw one. School districts are like mini-governments. When they get too big and too complacent, they tend to get corrupt.

--I have nothing against private schools and home schooling. The more choices for parents out there of all economic classes, the better. Vouchers may actually turn out to be a great "equalizer" for families of limited income. In some CA neighborhoods, they may be the only viable options left for parents seeking quality education.

204   jtfrankl   2006 Mar 28, 2:40pm  

SFWoman Says:
"I think historically the existence of Jesus is well established"

Fair enough. Another case of me going too far to make a point...

205   LILLL   2006 Mar 28, 2:45pm  

Randy
What's with this guy Schmend?
Would you say he's a troll or a flame?
Do we have flame-b-gone?

206   StuckInBA   2006 Mar 28, 3:20pm  

Does anyone watch CBS Series "Unit" ?

This is about a team of special ops soldiers. In the episode that concluded just minutes ago, their wives discuss how they can make more money as their husbands are dedicated patriots, and won't leave the service.

Yes, you guessed it. "We will buy some underpriced property, do some fixes, and then FLIP it". So they are now pooling money to do this. Except one, who works at some Realtor, others have shown to be completely clueless about this.

I think I am going to watch the next episode to see how that flipping goes. It would be interesting to see if the producer is a bear or a cheerleader. I think since a tragedy often engages viewers, they will mess up. But it will be because some evil RE agent cons these innocent women. I mean, the plan to flip it is flawless, just some villain would get the blame.

207   Unalloyed   2006 Mar 28, 4:05pm  

Has anyone considered the impossibility of processing the millions upon millions of "immigrants" under any proposed system? I think all the talk and debate is hot air because absolutely nothing will be done on this issue. It's all politics and posturing by our highly esteemed representatives.

208   Peter P   2006 Mar 28, 4:16pm  

I think all the talk and debate is hot air because absolutely nothing will be done on this issue.

True. I think this issue will probably die down after the mid-term election.

IMO the guess worker program is a great idea, but it should be applied mostly to people who have not been knowingly and blatantly violating immigration laws for years.

209   Peter P   2006 Mar 28, 4:23pm  

This will devestate the middle class even more than it already has.

I think there will be a fair value of labor at all level. The fair wage is quite a bit lower than the current US wage, I afraid, because of global labor arbitrage.

Be optimistic. Perhaps the legalization of undocument workers will allow us to have affordable maids (or other domestic helpers)! I can really use a cook and a cleaner if they are cheap enough.

210   Phil   2006 Mar 28, 4:31pm  

@HaHa,
store.nehaflix.com/ackpanchatantrabrahminstories.html
this website says panchatantra was probably written in Sanskrit in 200BC but evidence suggests that Sanskrit became a language in 150AD - probably influenced by Christianity in South India.

211   Phil   2006 Mar 28, 4:39pm  

Why does the H1B proposition have to be clubbed with the Illegal Immigration issue. Those are two totally different issues and should not be clubbed into one single bill.
Cant these idiot senators and congress vote on one issue at a time.

212   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 5:27pm  

Don't worry, Shmend Rick,

I'm sure those 2 million H1B workers will only "take the jobs that Americans won't" :roll:. Stop being such a lazy, whiny uncompetitive American! :evil:

213   OO   2006 Mar 28, 5:49pm  

ps,

I am amazed that you are still following news in Iraq, I have long given up and written this entire thingy off. Do we have a plan? 3 years into this sh*thole and we are asking for a plan? How about do we have a budget?

I thought the whole point of going into Iraq was to have a democratically elected government in Palestine? No? Never mind.

214   Unalloyed   2006 Mar 28, 6:01pm  

What the F.U.C.K. is going on in Iraq? Do we have a plan?

The plan is to foster a perpetual state of war so that the totalitarian regime in Washington can keep the U.S. population in a perpetual state of fear. Other than that, things look pretty good.

215   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 6:06pm  

The immigrants(legal) are not robbing your future, your future is up for grabs, for sale and big-capital bought it. we deserve nothing more than the government we allow. nothing will change we are all pitted against one another, its a global market place for products and labor.

I was being sarcastic in my earlier post to Shmend Rick (duh), but actually I agree with this reasoning. Global wage arbitrage is here to stay, and regardless of whether this particular bill passes the House or not won't make much difference in the long run. American workers really do not have much choice in the matter, other than try to adapt to the new reality. Companies seeking out cheaper skilled IT labor can either (a) relocate overseas, or (b) import it here via H1Bs, depending on which is more cost effective (and least politically inflammatory).

This is actually a very powerful argument against the idea that somehow rapid wage inflation will somehow "rescue" housing prices from a steep decline. When you average Chinese/Indian IT wages with U.S. IT wages (regardless of formula/weightings used) you most certainly do NOT end up with a result that is HIGHER than current wages.

216   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 6:12pm  

@astrid,

Posted before I read your comments --totally agree. I'll take productive tax-paying H1Bs anyday over unskilled, non-tax-paying illegals. Pick your wage arbitrage poison, I guess.

217   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 6:19pm  

@Sunnyvale_Renter,

Awww.... c'mon, man, that's just mean. Most Indians/H1Bs I've worked with aren't so bad, hygiene-wise or as co-workers. Overall, they seem to be pretty decent people. Can't personally vouch for the one's hanging around Trader Joe's though. ;-)

218   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 6:24pm  

@panicearly,

I'm very sorry (and embarrassed) to hear you were treated that badly here. No excuse for that kind of disgusting racism.

219   HARM   2006 Mar 28, 6:25pm  

@Shmend Rick,

Huh?? (you're kidding, right?)

220   Unalloyed   2006 Mar 28, 6:49pm  

Americans live a tenuous existence. The American dream we were sold has been replaced by the fear of poverty, homelessness and slow economic death. You don't work for a better life for yourself and your family. You work to keep a roof over your head, and you hope you don't lose it. We became slaves when fear replaced incentive as our reason for working. It doesn't matter if you're a white collar employee. If you're American, you're paid too much. There are billions of people who want your job, and the U.S. government is doing all they can to see that you lose it to them. Yes, we're slaves living in the global village. Oh, and the Social Security retirement age has been raised to match your life expectancy, so the bottom line is you're expected to work until you're dead.

221   Different Sean   2006 Mar 28, 7:21pm  

Duhhhhhhhhhh… I was going to buy in 2005, no i’ll wait until 2006 when the market really crashes… no wait, the market is still going up, i’ll wait until the market crashes in 2007, no wait, no 2008, no wait, 2009 etc.

You guys are going to be old and grey!

That's true - the next generation is being completely disenfranchised while they wait for a market reversal, by which time it may be too late to buy.

Oh well, the govt will have to pay extra pensions and set up free retirement homes for all the renters otherwise forced to rent through their retirement. A social catastrophe is looming - if you haven't paid off a house or otherwise amassed significant equity or savings by the low income years of retirement, you'll be screwed. Hopefully you chose your parents wisely - ones that had the foresight to buy numerous properties berfore the boom! Oh well, that's the market for you... ta ta!

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