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Housing Bubble Pre-Flight Checklist


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2006 Apr 10, 7:44am   29,596 views  313 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

1. Congress enacts/President signs new Tax Code into law (1997) subsidizing real estate speculation? Check.

2. Cabal of arrogant Fed bankers/Washington politicians/Brokerage firms ignore (or actively encourage) massive Dot.com stock bubble? Check.

3. Aforementioned stock bubble imploding in Fed's/Pol's faces (2000)? Check.

4. Extreme Fed/Pol fear of damage to the rest of the economy by ruptured stock bubble and willingness to flood economy with ultra-cheap credit (to inflate new bubble)? Check.

5. Massive GSEs market intervention, allowing private mortgage lenders to shift default risk from themselves onto taxpayers, FCBs & institutional investors (using the magic of MBS/CMOs)? Check

6. Complete erosion of lending standards, thanks to Fed's easy credit + GSE's MBS/CMO mortgage risk transfer? Check.

7. Cabal of arrogant Realt-whores enforcing monopoly MLS, gaming the numbers and lobbying for federal protection? Check.

8. Public's unshakable faith in the impregnability of real estate ("it never goes down")? Check.

9. Public's complete lack of historical memory, understanding of credit bubbles, the Fed/GSEs, business cycles, etc.? Check.

10. China/Japan underwriting much of our toxic MBS/CMO debt, while secretly hoping we fall on our asses? Check.

11. International carry-trade spawning RE bubbles all over the globe, thanks to ultra-cheap $USD ? Check.

HOUSING BUBBLE, YOU ARE CLEARED FOR TAXI

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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205   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 4:27am  

astrid,

That stuff was da bomb! I thought I had seen over the top in the P.I but that it just plain insane. My wife's cousin worked for years in Ohio for an auto parts supplier. She worked hard and saved her money and built what I like to call a "P.I Peso Palace". Good for her, she earned it. But it looks ridiculous. There are bamboo huts, fishing boats and swaying palm trees and then there's her cousin's monstrosity in the middle of all this tranquility. Oh, and she has a "mini dish" bolted to the side so she won't miss TV for the two weeks every other year she visits. When sge was "fishing" for a compliment from my wife, Mrs. DinOR asked her why she didn't build a hospital instead. That kind of took the wind out her sails.

206   skibum   2006 Apr 11, 4:29am  

DinOR Says:

When sge was “fishing” for a compliment from my wife, Mrs. DinOR asked her why she didn’t build a hospital instead. That kind of took the wind out her sails.

That is f-ing hilarious! Sounds like a line from a Filipino version of Pride and Prejudice, or something.

207   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 4:33am  

The other pictures on the thread are also very nice, some of them illustrate what Chinese countryside used to look like. Decrepit, but quite picturesque.

208   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 4:34am  

"Mrs. DinOR asked her why she didn’t build a hospital instead"

Mrs. DinOR rocks!

209   brightc   2006 Apr 11, 4:35am  

NAR's desperate spin: Check.

http://tinyurl.com/fb9af

Some highlights:

But based on those projections for 2006, both the new home and existing home sectors would see their third-best year, following the booming markets of 2005 and 2004, the trade group said.

Wow. "Third best". Is that the NAR's way of saying "sequential decline"? :-)

"Economic growth and job creation are providing a favorable backdrop for the housing market, but rising interest rates have an offsetting effect," David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said.

Oh shit. Damn the rising interest rate poking on the bubble. Poking -- it sounds just so violent. Sometimes I wish it were more like a souffle. Delicious.

But don't worry. Although your ARM will adjust from 4% to 7%, you can still handle the $900 increase in your monthly mortgage payment. After all, with commodity cost increases and the flatline salary and stock market, we'll get over it just fine.

Houses in the Bay Area will go up another 10% this year! (25% if not for the soft-landing).

210   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 4:37am  

nomadtoons2,

Going nuts? Oh, I'm there man! An old friend just moved to LV (with no intention of buying anytime soon) and he gives me a daily update on their weather. Bastard. I had no idea though that NASA had confirmed the possibility of the PDO! I'll have to check NOAA's ? website. As far as I knew it was the weather guessers at "U Dub" (Univ. of WA) that had made the observation. Years back I had a client that was a hydrologist? and he said that in effect LA had been turned from a desert into an oasis b/c of Mullholland and this may have changed weather patterns there.

211   requiem   2006 Apr 11, 4:39am  

newsfreak, (re: 2-story living rooms)

I know! you could put platforms at different levels, with stairs going up and down, like those 3D Star Trek chess sets.

(Would be intersting to see, though it'd be of more use for parties than for anything else.)

212   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 4:39am  

"Economic growth...are providing a favorable backdrop for the housing market"

BrightC, good point. What does direct economic growth even have to do with the housing market? I understand if economic growth can be linked to higher household income, but otherwise, there's no reason why economic growth would lead to higher property value. And you're absolutely right, what higher economic growth does directly contribute to is a rising commodities market.

213   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 4:42am  

DinOR,

How did you even close off your two floor living room? At least for McMansions, the 2 floor foyers and 2 floor living rooms are arranged in a manner that make it impossible to isolate from the rest of the house.

214   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 4:45am  

Thanks all!

I think Mrs. DinOR rocks too! It's just that we have seen so many of the "ex-patriots" return with an ugly display of wealth when what is really needed is at the very least a clinic. Many of their relatives are all hunky dory (healthwise) and then they just keel over b/c they have NEVER been seen by a medical professional of any sort in their lives. It's only after they are "critical" that these long term issues surface. If there was some sort of way to tell these people that they had diabetes or high blood pressure (or whatever) then at least the family could make some home health care preparations rather than pumping money into what SFWoman describes as the 1/3 of health care dollars being spent in the last 30 days of life. You know, basic preventative stuff.

215   edvard   2006 Apr 11, 4:46am  

I'm usually very antimate about keeping my beautiful 1996 toyota pizza delivery model truck nice and sqeaky clean. I haven't cleaned it since December because there hasn't been any point. It'lll take me all day to scrape all the accumulated grime off. NASA hasn't definantly confirmed the PDO, but all the evidence and info they gave matches the patterns from this and last year's unusual patterns. It pisses me off to talk to my folks. It was in the 60's most of the winter, and they actually had a drought. I will say that with all the rain, our yard looks amazing. I haven't been able to get grass to grow in the back since I've lived there. Now I can't keep up with it and my lawn mower gets clogged with the thatch. Amazing!

216   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 4:49am  

"McMansioneers"

I have a great idea. Let's sell 2 floor tall rock climbing walls into these 2 floor living rooms. Come on, it'll be a great conversation piece and I bet the Jones don't have it yet!

217   edvard   2006 Apr 11, 4:51am  

I kind of wonder how many deaths have been attributed to people accidentally falling from upstairs railings down to the first floow in some of the open air high ceiling models.

218   skibum   2006 Apr 11, 4:53am  

Robert, DinOR (and others),

RE: McMansions, what's pathetic is these structures are built so close together that if your neighbor farts, you can smell it. It would be that much more energy efficient to build side-by-side, town house style residences instead, but builders are merely satisfying these people's need to feel like they actually have a single, detached house.

219   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 4:54am  

astrid,

For us to be able to "close off" our vaulted living room was actually fairly easy. It had been added as an "after thought" some years before so it was already segregated except for a "bi-fold" door to the dining room which was simple enough to tighten up and then a door was installed toward the back bedroom entrance. The plants seemed to love it so just left well enough alone. This was not standard by any means so I'm not sure how one would make it work in today's McMansion.

220   edvard   2006 Apr 11, 5:02am  

Anyone driven through Sacremento lately? I was in Lincoln, right outside of Sac about 2 months ago.Looks like a weird alien planet. There are THOUSANDS of these hige houses, right next to each other, all the same style, size, color, and all. Even the gas stations, wal-mart, Mcdonalds and other shopping centers around it are styled in the same spanish villa tera cota roof style. It was really odd.
As for me, I want a log cabin. A real one. There are companies in NC that will sell you a kit to make your own.Apparently the resale value is bad. So what. That's what I like.

221   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:02am  

Wow. “Third best”. Is that the NAR’s way of saying “sequential decline”?

Wait until they say 57th best since 1950.

222   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:05am  

As for me, I want a log cabin. A real one. There are companies in NC that will sell you a kit to make your own.Apparently the resale value is bad. So what. That’s what I like.

I want a glide house from Michelle Kaufmann.

To me, the view is more important than the house. I must feel comfortable where I am located.

223   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 5:07am  

newsfreak,

Thank you and it just goes to show you that everything is "in bounds" here! One of the many reasons we sold our old place was that the vault created what the MANY roofers that came to bid described as a "dead valley" We always had problems with that area of the roof and I don't want to tell you how much extra we paid to correct that. It was a mess.

224   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:09am  

Nomadtoons2,

Depending on how real you want to get, log homes are fairly easy to build with wood cords and insulation. They'll last forever and the main problem is that most people don't know how to take care of them properly.

225   skibum   2006 Apr 11, 5:11am  

astrid, newsfreak, and others,

The vaulted living room climbing wall idea won't fly - those walls probably won't be able to hold up a normal rock climber's weight, much less that of a fat FB and their fat kids.

226   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:11am  

Peter P,

Have you looked into recycled shipping container structures? You can fit a lot of floor length windows into one and there's no termite problems.

227   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:12am  

skibum,

I was thinking of one of those climbing rocks like you'd find at REI...unless the poorly poured foundation won't support that either...

228   skibum   2006 Apr 11, 5:13am  

nomad,
Instead of a log cabin (a little to Abe Lincoln for my tastes), have you ever considered a post-and-beam home? These can be do-it-yourself setups too, and they are NICE. Probably along the lines of what I'd do if I could ever custom build a home someday. That, or complete modern w/ all the energy efficiency stuff built in. I'm torn between the two.

229   edvard   2006 Apr 11, 5:13am  

Actually, the coolest thing I saw recently was a company in NC buying up retired passenger jets, gutting the innards, engines, etc, and offering for around 250k to deliver it to your property. You have to do the interior, but can you imagine? Those planes have a lot of interior space, plus being made of alluminum, the maintence would be zilch. You could freak out the neighbors too.

230   skibum   2006 Apr 11, 5:15am  

re: last post,
- to
+ too

231   edvard   2006 Apr 11, 5:16am  

Post and Beam? Actually, a friend of ours makes those. They don't come cheap either. But they still have that rustic feel. A family friend is putting his father's house up for sale in TN. It is a vintage 1860's log cabin, 2 stories, a built on garage, and other collection of hodge-podge add ons that makes it look sort of charming and unusual for 130k. I'm so tempted. If anything, it would probably make a nice bed and breakfast.

232   skibum   2006 Apr 11, 5:16am  

nomad,
Ironic post given this thread topic (bubble flight plan)!!

233   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:17am  

Have you looked into recycled shipping container structures? You can fit a lot of floor length windows into one and there’s no termite problems.

Hmm... I rather have a wood or concrete home. The idea of living in a container feels uncomfortable to me.

234   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 5:17am  

nomadtoons2,

I believe they call it the world's 7th largest air force, Monthan-Davis Air Base just outside of Tucson, AZ. You can see abandoned airplanes from space! I think you could get one alot cheaper!

235   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:19am  

Actually, the coolest thing I saw recently was a company in NC buying up retired passenger jets, gutting the innards, engines, etc, and offering for around 250k to deliver it to your property.

With or without wings?

236   DinOR   2006 Apr 11, 5:19am  

Peter P,

Yeah, uh huh, 57th best year since back in 1950! I hear ya! 2007 just around the corner.

Btw, what is a "glide house" and who is Michelle Kaufman?

237   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:20am  

The vaulted living room climbing wall idea won’t fly - those walls probably won’t be able to hold up a normal rock climber’s weight, much less that of a fat FB and their fat kids.

Too funny!

238   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:20am  

Btw, what is a “glide house” and who is Michelle Kaufman?

http://www.mkd-arc.com/whatwedo/glidehouse/index.cfm

239   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:33am  

Nomad,

Watch out, aliens probably single out redneck houses for abductions1

Peter P,

I do find her Breeze house to be even nicer. Too expensive though. The QuikHouse gives similar space with about half the cost.

240   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:36am  

I do find her Breeze house to be even nicer. Too expensive though. The QuikHouse gives similar space with about half the cost.

Somehow I am more attracted to the simplicity of the glide house. Need to find a lot with a good view though.

241   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:41am  

Peter P,

What I really love (and can't afford) are the LA study houses from the 1950s/60s. They have the most beautiful bones + amazing views.

242   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:44am  

One other way to approach the high density housing problem is to look at how the Japanese deal with it. They build beautiful interior courtyards to let in light.

243   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 5:47am  

What I really love (and can’t afford) are the LA study houses from the 1950s/60s. They have the most beautiful bones + amazing views.

Don't worry, make more money and buy two!

244   edvard   2006 Apr 11, 5:50am  

I formerly really liked Arts And Crafts style homes..until I moved out here. Every other home in the Bay Area is an arts and crafts home, and it seems that all of them have the same front doors, little alcoves, and interiors. I like the simple clapboard farmhouses I saw a lot of in my region. They are fairly straightforward and functional inside and out. I also like the old school car garages seperate from the house with the 2 large front doors. That's the style of garage we have at our rental, and it is nice to work in there on a sunny day with both doors swung open.
For some reason I also like the work of IM Pei, and his all-glass house from the 50's.

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