patrick.net

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

I think it was the US that actually pushed the launch button.

US has the launch button to Russian cruize missiles that landed on Kyiv at 4am on 02/24/22? Wow, aren't US omnipotent!

RC2006 says

Title is completely wrong.

Yep: should be "Putin started a major shooting war in Europe and got an economic war in response"

Rin says

Only 2 decades ago, paralegals could get a GED and start work. Today, even paralegals are expected to have some BA degree, even if it's in ancient Etruscan bong making because HR & managers want to see that certificate.

Yep. 30 years ago, a HS Diploma got you working as a Bank Teller and you could work up to Loan Officer and weren't required to have a degree. You could have a modest career at banks with a HS Diploma. That was back when the forms were in triplicate carbon copy and if you or the applicant made a mistake, it took days to found out when the sheets came back from the home office, instead of computers that instantly say "Did you accidentally add another zero?" if you have a fat finger.

Much of the C64 hardware and firmware was hooked up by a one-term US Army Enlisted Guy from Pennsylvania without a college degree, just the US Army's course for Electrical Repair. And he was in his mid 20s and had only worked for Commodore for a year as a "Fetch this and Solder that" guy when an engineer quit and Jack came downstairs and just gave him the task.

AmericanKulak says

And he was in his mid 20s and had only worked for Commodore for a year as a "Fetch this and Solder that" guy when an engineer quit and Jack came downstairs and just gave him the task.

That's how it works. I was a history major. I learned accounting, websites (wordpress, not much to learn), marketing, photography, etc. all on my own to hit $20M in sales for the brokerage. I was average with tech, but all the other business aspects I had no clue and just learned it on the go. My college degree had nothing to do with it. Hated my boss, but he gave me the leeway to learn and I did on my own. Over 15 years I probably saved him $200k in costs because I could do it instead of hiring it out.

I don't get what he's doing. I don't mind it, but with $1B he could easily create a competitor. Half the users are fake. No different than any site.

WookieMan says

I don't get what he's doing. I don't mind it, but with $1B he could easily create a competitor. Half the users are fake. No different than any site.

He gets it today all the user even if they are 200-300M only.
He has money, Why wait for 5-6 years to get to same level... He is not going to live forever.

Wow that’s huge

FarmersWon says

He has money, Why wait for 5-6 years to get to same level... He is not going to live forever.

He built a car company against entrenched competitors. Competing against Twitter is a joke. He has fuck you money and is trolling people. I'm convinced of this. I don't mind it, but he doesn't care about the value one bit. This was to piss off enemies and probably trying to control the narrative to some extent.

DooDahMan says

Walking Upright - The earliest humans climbed trees and walked on the ground. This flexibility helped them get around in diverse habitats and cope with changing climates.

I don't think that's right at all.
Although humans starting walking upright before major tool use, freeing up the hands was a major benefit for tool use later on.

DooDahMan says

Bodies - As early humans spread to different environments, they evolved body shapes that helped them survive in hot and cold climates. Changing diets also led to changes in body shape.

Brains - As early humans faced new environmental challenges and evolved bigger bodies, they evolved larger and more complex brains.

What are the odds that both these statements together lead to the conclusion that different races of humans have different brain function?

If he tried to make a competitor, he would face enormous pressure from the censorious left for every move he made. Servers going down, internet connection failures, DNS lookup snafus, a barrage of harassing legal attacks from hundreds of jurisdictions around the globe, etc. The left knows that if even one platform allowed free speech, the game is up.

The thing I'm worried about is internal sabotage from the woke employees currently at Twitter.

SDC adoption will likely include external developments as well. Such as transponders/reflectors on road edges, signs, and curbs. Plus info transponders like speed limit and location markers, with sensors to measure traffic density. May even have people required to have a wearable transponder, so the SDC has you in sight with know motion vectors regardless of being hidden from view.

richwicks says

How pathetic that you are still getting the vaccine

Sorry to offend you by getting a booster, lol.
First, this is a RE thread and second its my body my choice.
I actually cant wait to get the next shot! I like the convenience of travelling to Europe without testing every so often. I travel a lot for work. Next one will be pfizer again, probably. Unless you know a better one available in the US :)

At 17, I worked at a Dairy Queen and used the money to rent Cessnas. Planes were cheap to rent back then, and I buzzed a few friends houses flying really low. Never got caught, even though i was low enough to see people looking up at me. I took a buddy or two up as well as the girl next door.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

But then the borrower of the $90 buys a vintage unopened Band of Gypsies album from his little old lady neighbor, who deposits the money in her bank account. The bank retains $9, and lends out the $81 to a borrower. At this point, the original $100 deposit has created $90 + $81 = $171.

I still do not follow. The borrower buys that Album, but now he does not have the money. When the old lady deposits (loans to the bank) the money, she no longer has the money. If the bank loans out $81 dollars while retaining $9, the bank will not have the money to pay the little old lady if she decides to with draw her $90. What you are describing is like a colonist using a tobacco leaf to barter for corn. Then the corn guy barters that leaf for butter. Then the butter guy uses the leaf for a fish. There is still only one tobacco leaf, all the leaf did was facilitate barter, it did not multiply itself.

Onvacation says

Rin says

And it was beaten up to a pulp

How do you know that there are not long term effects?

In the environment I'd created, at best, 2-9% of the adenovirus would have any chance of surviving. The rest can't survive in either the blood or within the cell structure.

They have a 'payload', the gene vector. Now, if you read through that article, the vault DNA (the intermediary staging 'tables' for the virus to perfuse into one's DNA) is highly limited, then at best, you're looking at perhaps 1-3% of the total injection having any shot of generating Spiked protein intracellularly.

Any person, with 4000+ mg of Quercetin in one's blood real-time, can handle that paucity of viral glycoprotein by-products. Realize, Que mops up loose Spiked protein rather well.

The minimal effects are very short term; in the long term, the gunk is gone.

Yes, if all of the depositors simultaneously wanted to withdraw their money, it would be a bank run. You must have seen It's a Wonderful Life, when there was a run on Bailey's Building and Loan. Now while the bank credits the little old lady with having $90 in her account, it really isn't there, just $9 in this 10% fractional reserve scenario. The bank is legally allowed to regard 10% of the tobacco leaf as being a whole leaf, and so it can lend out the other 90% of the leaf, while showing the colonist that the entire leaf is there in his account.

I'm curious how they calculate 97%, that's a very odd number.

Most of what's listed in OP is bogged down in the needfully complex jargon of the steal.. err central banking system. But if we simply look to that same system for an explanation, it is given:

"Modern monetary systems have a fiat base -- literally money by decree -- with depository institutions, acting as fiduciaries, creating obligations against themselves with the fiat base acting in part as reserves. The decree appears on the currency notes: "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private." "

(St Louis Federal Reserve, courtesy of Griffin).

Also, in the past few years, even the slightest pretense of restraint is been removed. Banks are free to leverage their federal reserve debt notes at much higher rates than 90%. For every dollar they take in today, banks are loaning at 99% minimum. Also, lest we forget, each of those loans is then loaned out itself, meaning for every debt not in existence cannot cover even 1% of existing debt. But don't take my word for it. Griffin has 600 pages, with foot-notes consisting mainly of primary sources, like the above quote.

HeadSet says

Seems to me that if:
Assume a deposit of $100.
$10 is maintained on hand as a required minimum reserve.
$90 is loaned out. That $90 is in the hands of the borrower, it is not available to be loaned out again.
The bank just hopes the depositor of that $100 does not want more than $10 withdrawal.

This type of restraint went out the window in the late 1800's when silver backing was removed. It is many, many multiples greater than what you describe. I am not exaggerating in the slightest.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Yes, if all of the depositors simultaneously wanted to withdraw their money, it would be a bank run.

No. If 1% of depositors wanted their debt notes, it would be a bank run. A cool summer breeze would topple this Creature.

HunterTits says

Credit and Money are two different things.

Not really, operationally they are the same.

Somebody that has $100,000 credit versus somebody that has $100,000 in cash, they can buy the same thing, the only difference is that the person buying on credit is depending on inflation to alleviate their burden of debt.

I have a deep distrust of the system, I suspect the people on credit are soon to be bankrupted, and those that actually have the money won't be. This will hurt the largest group of people possible, and I suspect that our government aims to do as much harm as possible.

We'll see.

NuttBoxer says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Yes, if all of the depositors simultaneously wanted to withdraw their money, it would be a bank run.

No. If 1% of depositors wanted their debt notes, it would be a bank run. A cool summer breeze would topple this Creature.

No, bank runs are no longer possible.

They will just borrow money from the Fed, at 0% interest. Currency is created at will now. There might be a delay in getting cash, if you want cash, but there's no delay in using a credit or debit card. Our entire monetary system is one of fraud, and has been for decades.

When the tide REALLY goes out, we'll see who is naked. I think the vast majority of the population is in debt and their investments are in Ponzi Schemes. I know ONE PERSON that has their house paid off. ONE. As interest rates rise, it will get interesting. Landlords are generally borrowing from the bank to have properties, they are basically agents for the bank, slaves to them. I don't know a single "wealthy person" that isn't deeply in debt.

Chernobyl mini series was pretty good.

This has been happening for years.

You will see in many job listings for higher paying jobs (say $75,000 and above) in various professional fields will say "Experience in lieu of degree", basically allowing substitution of real world experience for degree requirements. I believe it's usually 1 year of experience for 1 year of education.

... and then, 36 years later, a horde of mongoloid baboons with superior edumacation showed up and decided it was a good idea to run tracked vehicles and dig trenches in the fucking Red Forest, leading to elevated radiation levels in the whole region.

richwicks says

I know ONE PERSON that has their house paid off. ONE.

Actually, about 40% of the homes in the US are mortgage free.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2019/07/26/nearly-40-of-homes-in-the-us-are-free-and-clear-of-a-mortgage/?sh=34aa811e47c2&source=patrick.net

I paid cash for a house in 1995, and then paid cash for this house I moved to in 2014. Since both houses were new construction, paying cash got me a deal with the builder, plus no loan origination fees, points, etc.

DooDahMan says

If you understand the war in the Ukraine

This is where anyone with a brain shoud stop reading. For a very obvious rason.

HunterTits says

Do you at least use a script for that?

One of the dumbest business models I've ever seen. Their retail locations are excessively expensive. It's one thing to have a lot with a gate, but another thing to have a car elevator. I've seen the structures here in Oak Brook, IL and other states. Those structures are $2-3M alone without land/lease costs. I don't understand how you can turn a profit selling used cars that way.

I'm no genius otherwise I'd be a billionaire, but I lol'd the first time I saw a Carvana. Was like who the fuck thought that would be profitable?

Using a once every 50 year tragedy as an excuse for a land grab. The wife and I were driving through Surfside and Golden Beach yesterday, we were noticing the new towers vs the older ones built before the 80's. Even though they looked like they could go another 50 years, you know there are politics at work that is eventually going to drive the residents out, and they will level it and build a new tower.

Not every building is cracking and is in danger of one day collapsing unexpected like the Champlain tower. Many are, but there are many that weren't built the same methods those 70's and 80's tension slab construction buildings were. Those older buildings were poured with 3 and 4 foot walls, they may need gutting one day and the plumbing and electrical redone, but the structure is fine and will continue to be. The problem is, those buildings look dated and are under 10 floors small square footage vacation and snowbird accommodations, Those were built with a different customer in mind. The thrifty retiree moving to south Florida to spend out their Golden years. As the demographics have changed to rich foreigners who have millions to spend on RE assets. They are just itching to replaced those Retirement flats, with 30 floors of modern state of the art Luxury suits.

RWSGFY says

RC2006 says

Title is completely wrong.

Yep: should be "Putin started a major shooting war in Europe and got an economic war in response"

No more like keep Russia as a boogeyman to keep NATO relevant and US industrial complex rolling. Russia has weak military full of old shit that cant even quickly crush a third world state on its border, boy what a threat. Taxheed Marten thanks you.

Bitcoin says

richwicks says

How pathetic that you are still getting the vaccine

Sorry to offend you by getting a booster, lol.

You're not offending me. You are confusing me.

It's like you touched a surface that was red hot, and and flinched, and now you're touching it again, surprised it's hot.

It's weird to see people that don't learn the first time.

Bitcoin says

First, this is a RE thread and second its my body my choice.

Yes, I won't even object if you decide to drink a bottle of bleach, but having said that, that will kill you.

Bitcoin says

I actually cant wait to get the next shot!

Yeah, like a good slave. You're well trained. It's astonishing. The last 2 years has made me realize how many many people I respected, are not respectable. They are pathetic. Disgust is how I feel about many many people now. Just disgust. You'd be turning Jews in in 1939 and tattling on your neighbor in 1920 Russia but you're in good company. I understand finally the contempt that the powerful has for people. So many people, they are just constant suck ups, how could they respect you? Do you respect yourself?

Well, get your booster, or you don't have PRIVILEGES, you already abandoned your rights.

Newsom has $300 dinners, Boris Johnson throws parties, Nancy Pelosi gets her hair blown out, and you're still "I'll take the shot please". They don't believe any of this shit, do you? It seems to me either you're pathetic or dumb - what are the additional options? Help me to understand.

DooDahMan says

Supply has gotten worse and worse this year, every single week in 2022 on a year-over-year basis.

How much of the housing is vacation rentals (i.e., VRBO, AirBnB, etc.) or second homes for wealthy people ?

I wonder if that is the reason why supply cannot keep up with demand enough to keep housing affordable.

I've been following the ETF that goes by the ticker "ITB". It already has been beaten down bad but not as bad as Facebook, AMD, etc.

.

richwicks says

Well, get your booster

Yep! In a few months!

Will be sure to let you know, so you can keep hijacking our real estate posts again with your vaccine conspiracy/the world is ending and 911 was an inside job fantasies.

Just remember buddy.....my body my choice :) And btw....you should buy your first house soon! Inflation can be a bitch!

Bitcoin says

you should buy your first house soon! Inflation can be a bitch!

I'm not sure. Inflation leads to a recession which leads to over correction of assets like housing and stocks.

Look at how much housing got beat up from 2008 to 2012.

.

Bitcoin says

Just remember buddy.....my body my choice :) And btw....you should buy your first house soon! Inflation can be a bitch!

You've never looked at what happened during the Great Depression have you?

We're not going to have inflation. We're hitting the Mises Crack up boom.

https://www.patrick.net/post/1335674/2020-10-20-we-will-never-go-back-to-normal

I posted that 2 years ago. This whole bullshit pandemic was our LAST bailout. All this bullshit about having to get boosters, having to wear masks, all this bullshit - that is the distraction. It only exists to make you ask "why are they doing this?"

To distract you from the true purpose of the "pandemic".

Russia is a distraction as well. Every 100 years or so, we go through a reset because everybody that was alive at the time, is dead, and their kids and grandkids never listened. We just keep repeating the same mistakes, over and over and over again - but they aren't mistakes, they are completely planned.

richwicks says

We're not going to have inflation.

Right, sure. The inflation is a conspiracy. Not real. Enjoy those rent hikes!

I always chuckle when people who missed the buying opportunities of the past tell us about their wild conspiracy theories and how they know so much more. If the crash (sry meant big collapse) doesnt happen tomorrow, it will surely happen the day after. If not this year, than surely next year.

I see a pattern with those people. They dont own assets and its because of the bad, bad FED or XYZ. One guy even said, its because of us "fucks", the homeowners. Because we bought, he cant afford a home. ROFL

Just writing this makes me laugh out loud. Hey, its always someone else' fault, right? Cant be you, who doesnt have a high paying career or you who tried to outsmart the market (by trying to time it)?

My advice, get off zerohedge and start investing. Your life will change quickly. For instance....why not dollar cost avg into the stock market right now? Ah, i forgot....because perma bears never buy.....because it always will go lower in their mind!! One guy even said, you will have nothing left! S&P500 to zero!

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 8.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22, 2022.

... The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 71 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“With mortgage rates increasing last week to the highest level since 2009, applications continued to decline. Overall application activity fell to the lowest level since 2018, with both purchase and refinance applications posting declines. Refinance applications were 70 percent below the same week a year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was in the 3-percent range,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types. Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months
.”

Added Kan, “In a period of high home-price growth and rapidly increasing mortgage rates, borrowers continued to mitigate higher monthly payments by applying for ARM loans. The ARM share of applications last week was over 9 percent by loan count and 17 percent based on dollar volume. At 9 percent, the ARM share was double what it was three months ago, which also coincides with the 1.5 percentage point increase in the 30-year fixed rate.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.37 percent from 5.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. emphasis added

The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

The refinance index is at the lowest level since December 2018.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

Mortgage Purchase Index According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 17% year-over-year unadjusted.



https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_01084909843.html?source=patrick.net

Elon will turn it around.

1) A bunch of libturd crybabies are getting pink slips, this is a fact. If Elon is anything like the Elon of Tesla, he will be very quick and decisive with this. Good bye Vijaya Gadde, good luck sucking dicks on the side of Bay Bridge on ramp. Make sure they are extra sloppy.

2) Elon is going to make the subscription model work. The $2.99 a month blue check idea? BRILLIANT. You eliminate bots, or at least drastically remove their effectiveness, and you give people an ego boost for $3 a month for hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

3) Twitter is about to get a membership boost of about 20%. All the moderates and conservatives who avoided the platform because of libturb banning policies will swarm back to challenge every woke lefty idea now with reckless abandon. Every shitlord in their basement to every blue check Ben Sharpiro wannabe is going to challenge "gender is a spectrum" on every single damn tweet, which is GOOD.