patrick.net

DooDahMan says

The Saudi's just jacked up export oil prices again in the last 48 hours (not for the U.S. temporarily at least) which in turn has caused an even bigger spike in world oil prices. Goldman now is calling for $130 a bbl oil based on global demand. At the current trend $150 a bbl is looking more and more like a sure thing until there is a "Global" demand destruction event or series of events.

We've had oil prices at or above $130 before and outside of a few cities gas prices didn't hit $5/gal during the Bush years. What we're witnessing is insane. Closest I've been to a $100 fill up was maybe $75 two years ago, otherwise always less. I've breached $115 per fill up now and we're near one of the midwests largest refineries.

There's less demand. Even with summer travel. The economics don't make sense. Congress or the White House can do something, they just don't or won't. Biden can do stuff, but we get fixated on party politics and "green" energy or you won't get elected. Things like pipelines are very safe and either way we're pulling this shit from the ground anyway.

Fact is urban city dewellers lean left and consume substantially more energy than rural people. I buy a cow from the local farmer, he doesn't have to load dozens in a trailer and haul them somewhere in a semi spitting out deisel fumes. I grow the veggies we use most of the time that last 6-12 months if prepped well. No urban heat sink where I have to run A/C high all summer. A 2/2 Condo in say Chicago at 800sq ft, consumes way more energy than I do when you factor everything being shipped in. Idleing on a highway for hours in a semi.

Even if no new refineries are being built as you claimed, we just had pandemic where it's okay to WFH and supposedly millions of people died. Oil consumption is down. Or the free handouts made people less likely to work. It's a combination of a lot of things and Biden and Congress could fix this with policy. This is on D's and R's too, not just picking on one side.

WookieMan says

We've had oil prices at or above $130 before and outside of a few cities gas prices didn't hit $5/gal during the Bush years.

Perhaps refining is now more expensive because of Bidenflation.
DooDahMan says

Regardless of political party whoever is in the White House/Congress can do very little now

Build more pipelines, allow drilling on Fed land, stop vilifying oil companies who behave in exactly the same way or even better than so-called renewable energy companies (who suck on taxpayer teat more than oil and make inefficient and not necessarily environmentally efficient product).

About lack of refineries being the only reason behind higher gas prices - I don't buy that. Assuming that gas price is A+B+C+D, where A is oil price which accounts for about 60% of gas price, refining which is about 20% (B), and the rest is transportation, marketing (C), and taxes (D), the higher oil price is gotta have an oversized influence on gas prices. Oil price can be influenced by gubbermint and so can the taxes. It goes without saying that oil companies will try to maximize profits, and it is easier for them to do it at times when we have gyrations in oil price (when it goes up, jack prices up fast; when it goes down, lower slowly), but I think it is not correct to say that gov't has no influence.

You don't understand CA. It's population it has been importing over the last 40 years is ok with the way things are. Most the people that would be against what's going on have bailed or are sheltered. Most under thirty have been indoctrinated.

FarmersWon says

Is Houston completely crime free

no, because they vote D, just like in CA

Bd6r says

FarmersWon says

Is Houston completely crime free

no, because they vote D, just like in CA

Because a bunch of CA libs moved there.

FarmersWon says

West Virgina is blue state as per your logic.

Relates more to D local judges and District Attorneys, who let perps go. Doubt that in WV they are D's; in Houston/Harris county, they are.

This past week I read some articles about the potential new LA mayor - was recently a republican who did an republican > independent > democrat switcheroo over the past few years, and is now leading the LA mayor race by platforming on fixing democrat failures in taxes, crime, and homelessness. The dems are scurred because hes very popular, and have been trying to focus fire on him but supposedly nothing is working and sticking to him.

I hope he wins, but he seems like an infiltrator, and I suspect he may go down soon if he's surrounded by viscous angry libs in all the other govt positions, seething in anger that hes rocking the boat and infiltrating their precious fortified stronghold of LA. He'll need to watch his six lest he catches a dagger from an npc.

I must say I LOVE the last minute registration as a dem trick. It really flings the whole "change what you identify as" turd right back in their fayce.

What happened in our municipality is that many local quality of life ordinances were suspended in the name of compassion. Overnight camping and impromptu RV parks sprung up around town, along with the attendant bad behavior. I did a several mile walk this past weekend and many of the trouble spots have been cleaned up, but a lot of shenanigans still going on off the main thorough fares.

As a democrat-> independent, I think Shellenberger has the best chance to make a run for the governorship...

https://babylonbee.com/news/chicago-schools-gun-free-zone-sign-riddled-with-bulletholes

Booger says

At what point do I sell off, or at least start selling covered calls on my oil stocks?

A lot may depend on President BIden's trip to The Kingdom. All bets are off if MBS brings out the Orb of Covfefe...

DooDahMan says

tressing that even if the submarine should spring a leak, she was prepared to go down with the ship.

I think it's more like, "When you have sold your soul to the devil (Globalists, Chinese, whoever), the devil never lets you rest."
You notice all the crumbles who stay in power forever. About the age of 60 or so, most people just want to relax, travel, spend time with their kids, read, etc.

These politicians have been burnished as criminal emplacements, and they got rich doing it.

However, the criminal code is that once you stop producing, you are then nothing but a potential State's witness, or a smarmy deathbed confession waiting to happen. Plus, you are an investment as a brand name and a figurehead.

These guys may have to stay on the job to stay alive. They have to show up to the makeup and dressing wagon every morning for their coupla hours of primping while reading the ticker tapes from Switzerland for their day's performance. I don't think they have a say in their retirement as much as most people think they do.

They got the dough, but can't relax to enjoy it as long as they have a breath to impose their fuckaciousness. Devil's bargain.

Well, with some hope he is!

I've seen many companies in Silly Con Valley go under because some immigrant asshole who controlled the company was a bigot. They'd hire only from a select group not based on competence, and as a result, they were outcompeted.

Wouldn't mind seeing Google go under. I hope he's racist as fuck.

Google is a poison and the sooner they go down, the better. I welcome their destruction. They are traitors to our Constitution. Fuck them.

DooDahMan says

Oil company executives would rather find ways to boost their share price than increase production

It's a volume business, you do understand that, right? Oil will always make money. They can pump and refine more oil and make the same profits at $60 or $130 per barrel. They just sell fewer barrels at $130 and the margins are higher.

This is my wife's business. I'm going to have a fantastic year because people are not all that intelligent about the market for crude.

We can shoot the shit here talking about oil, but if you haven't worked in the industry and sold it you're kind of talking out your ass.

Ceffer says

9. Caligulan excess, hot and cold running hookers and cocaine, Satanic world conquest, Babylonian loan sharking to victimize the plebs, plans for psychopathic bloodline political dominance, Swiss citizenship.

I think I'm almost there. Just a few hundred years more of saving.

You forgot a Burisma board seat...

gabbar says

14 percent of men never live long enough to collect social security, which can start at 62

My dad took social security as soon as he could, and he bet right. He died at age 75.

AmericanKulak says

Try not to live in a place where the city you live next to is the only place of employment within any kind of reasonable commute distance.

Right, you want to minimize your dependencies. Dependency is weakness.

clambo says

Another way to pay off credit card debt is to die.
It's an "unsecured debt" so they are stuck with the debt when you finally depart this world.

They're stuck with the debt even if alive or dead. It was a business transaction on their end. They made a bad deal if you don't pay. No one should ever fall into the bankruptcy lawyer trap or the collectors trap. You're broke and you're paying someone to be more broke with BK. My dad handled hundreds if not thousands of BK's so I know the game.

Screen calls. Never say your name answering the phone. If they ask your name say no and what do they want. If you were ever to get served, don't comply. Just say you're watching the house for a buddy and you're not you if you don't know the person.

I've never had to do this, but it's the way to make it go away. Collection companies will not go to court to garnish wages for anything under $20k and likely higher. If you're 1099 or have a stay at home spouse, there's not much they can do either and they know it. I got a Ph.D. in this shit during the housing bust as we did short sales to get commissions. But we also needed to know about other debt and have talked to 100's of attorneys that knew the game. Not honest or ethical, but at some point you need to take care of you. Remember, it's a business transaction. The banks made the game. Sometimes they have to take a loss.

gabbar says

I think most people should retire as early as they can

what exactly do people mean when they say "retire"? Or is it another of those undefinable words like Woman?

Ultra_FJB says

gabbar says

What are examples of good debt?

Asset debt not liability debt. Debt that pays me instead of me paying it.

This is making the spread between the borrowing cost and the return you’re getting. You’re essentially operating as a bank. Banks pay the savers pennies while lending their money out for dollars and making the spread. Bravo. 👏

Eman says

Ultra_FJB says

gabbar says

What are examples of good debt?

Asset debt not liability debt. Debt that pays me instead of me paying it.

This is making the spread between the borrowing cost and the return you’re getting. You’re essentially operating as a bank. Banks pay the savers pennies while lending their money out for dollars and making the spread. Bravo. 👏

Perfect example right now for me...borrowing $138K @ 5.5 APR and lending $50K out at 15%. The rest of the money I can invest in the stock market in high quality companies to manage my risk.

DooDahMan says

Not sure where or how my comment went but here it is again - it was awaiting moderation but then just vanished for some odd reason

@DooDahMan You know it was passive-aggressive and personal.

Please stop doing that.

DooDahMan says

Not really - The top 25 oil and gas companies lost an eye-popping $811 billion altogether in market capitalization between the end of 2019 to the end of March 2020.

You have to understand losses. Take one shit year and make future years more profitable by having a huge write off that carries over year after year cutting taxes to damn near zero.

Oil companies never "lose" money. The drillers maybe if they made a bad bet. The likes of Exon, BP, Shell, never "actually" lose money. They wouldn't be in business if they did. They take the losses for a year or two and pump the price and pay no taxes on the gains. Rinse and repeat. I'm young, but this seemingly should be obvious to everyone. It's been going on for decades.

Our tax code makes it okay to suck for a year or two, not pay taxes and then win for a year or two and still not pay taxes. Carryover.

they spent billions on that shit? fuck we getting hrift fucked in the ass by these people.

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That was just spammer I think.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/dozens-of-low-mile-2-7l-ford-bronco-engines-have-already-failed/ar-AAWKNOQ

In October 2021, a now-deleted Bronco6G account posted that the failures were attributed to a bad batch of valves that Ford received from one of its suppliers.

Chinese quality strikes again!

Too bad. FORD: “Fix or Repair Daily”

I want a Toyota Hilux, the 4x4 comes with a straight 4 cylinder Diesel.

No

If the thai baht really crashes hard, then it's my turn to move to thailand where my dollars will elevate me to king status among the local hos. me thinks many americans did this decades ago.

House prices falling any significant value in the near term would equate to the undoing of the mass devaluation of the dollar that has occurred over the last 27 months. So, NO.

Looks like a good time to go to Europe, since the Euro is down relative to the dollar:



On the other hand, maybe higher fuel costs for the flight negate that advantage.

Also, I'm not going anywhere that requires masks at any time, much less the dangerous and worse than ineffective vaxx.

ARE HOME PRICES ABOUT TO FALL?

About to? Nope. Later this year or early next year, probably.

If I ever get a Toyota Hilux it will be in Mexico, but I can drive up to California for a visit sometime.

thanks, helpful info

Home prices come down to affordability as most are bought with a mortgage or they are bought with cash and then long term rented.

Those bought with cash are intended to earn at least a 7% annual return on investment, so they have to charge enough rent and minimize expenses to realize that.

Housing cost (rent or mortgage/property tax/property insurance/hoa fee/home repairs) should not be more than 38% of household income.

With the 30 yr mortgage rate nearly at 5.9%, and it was 2.8% months ago, that means housing has to drop to late 2019 price levels at least.

.

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DooDahMan says

t. In other words, the probability that a big one-day rally occurs during a bear market is nearly twice as high as you'd expect on the basis of randomness.

It may be long term investors buying stocks at a desirable price level. They think they are getting value by buying it then and holding onto it for at least 3 to 5 years.

Look at Carnival Cruise this past Friday and see how much the stock went up in early trading. If it goes up that much that means so major investors or "whales" are buying shares.

.

ad says

Look at Carnival Cruise this past Friday and see how much the stock went up in early trading. If it goes up that much that means so major investors or "whales" are buying shares.

Soros bought RIVN at 103 plus, Buffett bought SNOW at 251. Whales can be wrong too.

I think the term here is 'Reversion to the Mean' trading.

In other words, when the bear market sell off is huge, creating a huge gap between the price and the 200 day EMA, then, there's a tendency to rally back to re-test the 200 EMA or at least, the middle of the Bollinger bands (in effect), before re-commencing with another sell off.

A picture is worth a 1000 words. Here's the SPY with a 200 day EMA in red & a Bollinger Band which uses the 66 day (approx 3 mos) as its EMA with the standard bands.



So whenever the market seizes to be bullish, i.e. when the below 200 EMA price is a daily phenomena, ala bear market, you can almost see the reversion to mean, counter-rallies, trying to get back to good.

So the question then is to what extent is one an active trader? If one's not glue to the ticker tape w/ all his software tools, then perhaps, it's best to only take trades, once the 200 EMA is re-tested and the price action closes above it.