patrick.net

Well, with some hope he is!

I've seen many companies in Silly Con Valley go under because some immigrant asshole who controlled the company was a bigot. They'd hire only from a select group not based on competence, and as a result, they were outcompeted.

Wouldn't mind seeing Google go under. I hope he's racist as fuck.

Google is a poison and the sooner they go down, the better. I welcome their destruction. They are traitors to our Constitution. Fuck them.

DooDahMan says

Oil company executives would rather find ways to boost their share price than increase production

It's a volume business, you do understand that, right? Oil will always make money. They can pump and refine more oil and make the same profits at $60 or $130 per barrel. They just sell fewer barrels at $130 and the margins are higher.

This is my wife's business. I'm going to have a fantastic year because people are not all that intelligent about the market for crude.

We can shoot the shit here talking about oil, but if you haven't worked in the industry and sold it you're kind of talking out your ass.

Ceffer says

9. Caligulan excess, hot and cold running hookers and cocaine, Satanic world conquest, Babylonian loan sharking to victimize the plebs, plans for psychopathic bloodline political dominance, Swiss citizenship.

I think I'm almost there. Just a few hundred years more of saving.

You forgot a Burisma board seat...

gabbar says

14 percent of men never live long enough to collect social security, which can start at 62

My dad took social security as soon as he could, and he bet right. He died at age 75.

AmericanKulak says

Try not to live in a place where the city you live next to is the only place of employment within any kind of reasonable commute distance.

Right, you want to minimize your dependencies. Dependency is weakness.

clambo says

Another way to pay off credit card debt is to die.
It's an "unsecured debt" so they are stuck with the debt when you finally depart this world.

They're stuck with the debt even if alive or dead. It was a business transaction on their end. They made a bad deal if you don't pay. No one should ever fall into the bankruptcy lawyer trap or the collectors trap. You're broke and you're paying someone to be more broke with BK. My dad handled hundreds if not thousands of BK's so I know the game.

Screen calls. Never say your name answering the phone. If they ask your name say no and what do they want. If you were ever to get served, don't comply. Just say you're watching the house for a buddy and you're not you if you don't know the person.

I've never had to do this, but it's the way to make it go away. Collection companies will not go to court to garnish wages for anything under $20k and likely higher. If you're 1099 or have a stay at home spouse, there's not much they can do either and they know it. I got a Ph.D. in this shit during the housing bust as we did short sales to get commissions. But we also needed to know about other debt and have talked to 100's of attorneys that knew the game. Not honest or ethical, but at some point you need to take care of you. Remember, it's a business transaction. The banks made the game. Sometimes they have to take a loss.

gabbar says

I think most people should retire as early as they can

what exactly do people mean when they say "retire"? Or is it another of those undefinable words like Woman?

Ultra_FJB says

gabbar says

What are examples of good debt?

Asset debt not liability debt. Debt that pays me instead of me paying it.

This is making the spread between the borrowing cost and the return you’re getting. You’re essentially operating as a bank. Banks pay the savers pennies while lending their money out for dollars and making the spread. Bravo. 👏

Eman says

Ultra_FJB says

gabbar says

What are examples of good debt?

Asset debt not liability debt. Debt that pays me instead of me paying it.

This is making the spread between the borrowing cost and the return you’re getting. You’re essentially operating as a bank. Banks pay the savers pennies while lending their money out for dollars and making the spread. Bravo. 👏

Perfect example right now for me...borrowing $138K @ 5.5 APR and lending $50K out at 15%. The rest of the money I can invest in the stock market in high quality companies to manage my risk.

DooDahMan says

Not sure where or how my comment went but here it is again - it was awaiting moderation but then just vanished for some odd reason

@DooDahMan You know it was passive-aggressive and personal.

Please stop doing that.

DooDahMan says

Not really - The top 25 oil and gas companies lost an eye-popping $811 billion altogether in market capitalization between the end of 2019 to the end of March 2020.

You have to understand losses. Take one shit year and make future years more profitable by having a huge write off that carries over year after year cutting taxes to damn near zero.

Oil companies never "lose" money. The drillers maybe if they made a bad bet. The likes of Exon, BP, Shell, never "actually" lose money. They wouldn't be in business if they did. They take the losses for a year or two and pump the price and pay no taxes on the gains. Rinse and repeat. I'm young, but this seemingly should be obvious to everyone. It's been going on for decades.

Our tax code makes it okay to suck for a year or two, not pay taxes and then win for a year or two and still not pay taxes. Carryover.

they spent billions on that shit? fuck we getting hrift fucked in the ass by these people.

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That was just spammer I think.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/dozens-of-low-mile-2-7l-ford-bronco-engines-have-already-failed/ar-AAWKNOQ

In October 2021, a now-deleted Bronco6G account posted that the failures were attributed to a bad batch of valves that Ford received from one of its suppliers.

Chinese quality strikes again!

Too bad. FORD: “Fix or Repair Daily”

I want a Toyota Hilux, the 4x4 comes with a straight 4 cylinder Diesel.

No

If the thai baht really crashes hard, then it's my turn to move to thailand where my dollars will elevate me to king status among the local hos. me thinks many americans did this decades ago.

House prices falling any significant value in the near term would equate to the undoing of the mass devaluation of the dollar that has occurred over the last 27 months. So, NO.

Looks like a good time to go to Europe, since the Euro is down relative to the dollar:



On the other hand, maybe higher fuel costs for the flight negate that advantage.

Also, I'm not going anywhere that requires masks at any time, much less the dangerous and worse than ineffective vaxx.

ARE HOME PRICES ABOUT TO FALL?

About to? Nope. Later this year or early next year, probably.

If I ever get a Toyota Hilux it will be in Mexico, but I can drive up to California for a visit sometime.

thanks, helpful info

Home prices come down to affordability as most are bought with a mortgage or they are bought with cash and then long term rented.

Those bought with cash are intended to earn at least a 7% annual return on investment, so they have to charge enough rent and minimize expenses to realize that.

Housing cost (rent or mortgage/property tax/property insurance/hoa fee/home repairs) should not be more than 38% of household income.

With the 30 yr mortgage rate nearly at 5.9%, and it was 2.8% months ago, that means housing has to drop to late 2019 price levels at least.

.

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DooDahMan says

t. In other words, the probability that a big one-day rally occurs during a bear market is nearly twice as high as you'd expect on the basis of randomness.

It may be long term investors buying stocks at a desirable price level. They think they are getting value by buying it then and holding onto it for at least 3 to 5 years.

Look at Carnival Cruise this past Friday and see how much the stock went up in early trading. If it goes up that much that means so major investors or "whales" are buying shares.

.

ad says

Look at Carnival Cruise this past Friday and see how much the stock went up in early trading. If it goes up that much that means so major investors or "whales" are buying shares.

Soros bought RIVN at 103 plus, Buffett bought SNOW at 251. Whales can be wrong too.

I think the term here is 'Reversion to the Mean' trading.

In other words, when the bear market sell off is huge, creating a huge gap between the price and the 200 day EMA, then, there's a tendency to rally back to re-test the 200 EMA or at least, the middle of the Bollinger bands (in effect), before re-commencing with another sell off.

A picture is worth a 1000 words. Here's the SPY with a 200 day EMA in red & a Bollinger Band which uses the 66 day (approx 3 mos) as its EMA with the standard bands.



So whenever the market seizes to be bullish, i.e. when the below 200 EMA price is a daily phenomena, ala bear market, you can almost see the reversion to mean, counter-rallies, trying to get back to good.

So the question then is to what extent is one an active trader? If one's not glue to the ticker tape w/ all his software tools, then perhaps, it's best to only take trades, once the 200 EMA is re-tested and the price action closes above it.

Rin says

'Reversion to the Mean'

Yes, and the PE is below 20. How far does it drop ? To 15 ? https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

,

And the annual return for the S&P 500 has been only 6.5% since January 2000. That is based on reinvesting dividends and is the rate before inflation.

Adjusted for inflation, and the annual return is 4% since January 2000. What happened to the S&P 500 returning 11% a year ?

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

.

ad says

Yes, and the PE is below 20. How far does it drop ?

I'm not too sure if the PE, or better yet, the Schiller PE10 (which uses 10 years of trailing earnings to average out the periodic poor quarterly sales), give ambiguous results when used globally.

https://www.topdowncharts.com/post/2020/04/09/10-charts-on-the-pe10-valuation



If you look at ETFs which track Singapore (EWS), Korea (EWY), Poland (EPOL), Norway (ENOR), etc. They seem to also be dealing with their own bear markets.

Rin says

Schiller PE10

Yeah the Shiller PE ratio, which uses the last 10 years of earnings, continues to trend down. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

.

At level 4. Won't be at level 5 until the house is paid off. Goal is to be at level 6 by the time I retire.

Level 7 only if I become independently wealthy via some of my patents / innovations / inventions. To date they only exist on paper. None have gained traction, but I still tinker in my spare time.

Eman says

This is making the spread between the borrowing cost and the return you’re getting. You’re essentially operating as a bank.

That's right! I make loans (about wrapped up now though) on lending club too but I was mostly speaking about real estate.

I'm into a lot of things. That's real diversification.

Pay cash for house (with enough elevation that it won't flood). Make house hurricane proof. Add sprinkler system. Drop homeowner's insurance.

DooDahMan says

Does this include backed up toilets / sewers or someone leaving a faucet(s) on or just one of those I forgot it is going to 20 below tonight and I was supposed to keep a trickle of water running so the pipe don't freeze moments ?

I've never had pipe freezing, because they run through my basement, which doesn't freeze. In so far as the other things that you mentioned, those only happen to stupid people.

DooDahMan says

Is homeowners insurance required in Florida?

Only on a Mortgage, and the bank is the one that requires it.

Out of control rising premiums is the main impetus for me deciding to double up my mortgage payment and pay off the remaining 20 years of my scheduled payments, in less than 5 years. I paid it off at the end of 2020, and the first damn thing I did was canceled my Insurance and got the premium back. It renewed through my escrow account about one month before I paid it off.

My Premium was already $3500 when I canceled it, it would probably be well over $4000 by now.
If I were to put 4K in a rainy day fund, I would have 20K within 5 years. That would be plenty to make any hurricane repair with or without sweat equity.
Face it, if my house were to totally blow away, then so would every other house in South Florida. The insurance company would go belly up and Fema would have to step in and pay for it all anyway.

DooDahMan says

Not sure I will live long enough to see such a creation

Hurricanes are about storm surge. A quality built house can sustain a hurricane easily, you just have to spend $$$$ up front. Modern houses should not sustain wind damage unless 120mph plus. Obviously it depends on the builder and what you're willing to spend.

I'm in a tornado prone area and when they hit (not my town) many of the houses stay in-tacked with maybe some roof damage or a broken window from debris. Sure an F-5 tornado or a Cat 5 hurricane could fuck your shit up, but flooding is the biggest concern with hurricanes, not wind until it's Cat 4 plus.

We're used to seeing Weather Channel people standing at the beach acting like they cannot stand up to get ratings and views. EVERYTHING is a business. It's not about informing you. And yes, hurricanes and tornados are dangerous. If you can make money off them you exaggerate the experience of them. Everyone I know in IL goes outside if the tornado sirens go off to check the weather. Always be safe, but rare and extreme events rarely result in death or damage.

As someone who worked in the mortgage bank industry, I recommend just increasing your deductible limit to lower the cost of insurance. Some repairs can be financially devastating such as a tornado, fires or sinkholes.

The nice thing about renting is if you don’t like the neighbors or your situation you can leave.

The bad thing about renting is if you really like your situation the owners can tell you to leave, which is inconvenient.

Getting a good situation with cheap rent is a lucky event, but sometimes you get lucky.