patrick.net

Dan8267 says

Finally, this problem is not going to get any better on its own. Millions of seniors are expected to need rental housing in the coming decade.

I.e., millions of seniors downsizing in the next decade, driving house prices down where they will continue to spiral until the last boomer dies.

How can that be possible with a rising population?
1. Population is rising.
2. Dumps like Detroit are being abandoned.
3. Old homes have to be replaced.
People have to live somewhere, and they all want to live in the sunbelt.

Strategist says

Falling house prices will mean less construction of new homes, which means a shortage of homes, which means higher rents.

Houses were being built when they were much cheaper than today.
They were just slightly smaller and more basic.

Today builders all want to build "luxury" houses but they will have to adapt to reality and build houses people can afford.

As long as the demand is there, I'm not sure why some private company would not offer a solution.

Well they do have a lot of that Boardwalk money to pay back to Obama.

New Renter says

The real question is why do burger flippers bother to stay in SF.

Exactly.

There is a point where poor people need to draw the conclusions and move to union city.

It's not a human right to live in one of the most expensive place in the world.

And when burger joints in SF don't find anyone willing to work for them, they will also draw the conclusions and either pack too, or pay their employees better - raising prices if need be.

People just have to adapt.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Falling house prices will mean less construction of new homes, which means a shortage of homes, which means higher rents.

Houses were being built when they were much cheaper than today.

They were just slightly smaller and more basic.

Today builders all want to build "luxury" houses but they will have to adapt to reality and build houses people can afford.

As long as the demand is there, I'm not sure why some private company would not offer a solution.

I here there is a huge demand for the million dollar homes. Toll Brothers, a luxury home builder now averages $675,000 per home.
Want to get rich? Buy the home builders, their stock prices are about to go through the roof.

Strategist says

I.e., millions of seniors downsizing in the next decade, driving house prices down where they will continue to spiral until the last boomer dies.

How can that be possible with a rising population?

1. Population is rising.

2. Dumps like Detroit are being abandoned.

3. Old homes have to be replaced.

People have to live somewhere, and they all want to live in the sunbelt.

If the next generation cannot afford the boomers houses, prices will go down - especially larger more expensive houses.
It is possible to build more cheaper units, apartments etc...

Strategist says

Want to get rich? Buy the home builders

They already ramped up.
And the one that will grow most are not the one making luxury homes.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

I.e., millions of seniors downsizing in the next decade, driving house prices down where they will continue to spiral until the last boomer dies.

How can that be possible with a rising population?

1. Population is rising.

2. Dumps like Detroit are being abandoned.

3. Old homes have to be replaced.

People have to live somewhere, and they all want to live in the sunbelt.

If the next generation cannot afford the boomers houses, prices will go down - especially larger more expensive houses.

It is possible to build more cheaper units, apartments etc...

That will be a decision for the home builders to make when the time comes. Their only goal is to maximize profits regardless of what they sell.
I personally believe our standard of living will keep getting better over the decades, and the average consumer will have a much higher purchasing power, benefiting real estate the most.

Strategist says

New Renter says

Strategist says

So what's the solution?

More section 8 probably.

Oh God, is there any solution that does not cost anyone money?

Yes:

He he he.
Those cave men paid no mortgage and yet no one foreclosed on them.
I think I'll take the hut, it looks like its on a beautiful island somewhere.

Strategist says

He he he.

Those cave men paid no mortgage and yet no one foreclosed on them.

I think I'll take the hut, it looks like its on a beautiful island somewhere.

Well caves CAN be a great way to live. The main problem is light and ventilation. I'm thinking ventilation shafts can double as light tunnels. Put in a few solar panels and or windmills for electrical power with a large water tower for energy storage and you've got yourself a nice little setup.

In the good old days (18th century England) being a hermit was a pretty good gig. Unfortunately like all good jobs demand has dried up.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/aug/20/arts.artsnews

Fourth-quarter earnings for 2013 were $94.9 million, or $0.54 per share diluted, compared to $411.4 million, or $2.35 per share, in fiscal year 2012.

This is when you buy.....when temporary bad news hits the stock.

New Renter says

Strategist says

He he he.

Those cave men paid no mortgage and yet no one foreclosed on them.

I think I'll take the hut, it looks like its on a beautiful island somewhere.

Well caves CAN be a great way to live. The main problem is light and ventilation. I'm thinking ventilation shafts can double as light tunnels. Put in a few solar panels and or windmills for electrical power with a large water tower for energy storage and you've got yourself a nice little setup.

In the good old days (18th century England) being a hermit was a pretty good gig. Unfortunately like all good jobs demand has dried up.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/aug/20/arts.artsnews

Nah! I don't like fixer uppers.
How about flipping it?

tatupu70 says

Actually, that is not at all what I'm saying. How in the world did you interpret my posts as what you wrote above?

Look, if someone does not a find job, there should be a way for that person to start a business on his/her own. That does not happen so easily due to enormous number of regulations. Fortunately, they are little less in the tech industry.

tatupu70 says

If you can find an island with great weather and enough available (free) land, (free) fruits and wild game, to support the current number of unemployed people, please point me in the right direction. I'd like to head there myself.

Well, you will still have to haul your own ass to get them. Or, do you need government assistance for that because of disability?

Danke Amerika...Roll out the Barrel...

Strategist says

Nah! I don't like fixer uppers.

How about flipping it?

Next on TLC - Flip This Cave!

bgamall4 says

Slab city. Is that at the Salton Sea?

Yes

bgamall4 says

You don't want to be there.

You are right about that, however it may have appeal to some as an alternative to Phoenix

boomers have to live some where. they aren't going to move out of their big houses and live in their cars.

prices for small homes will go up. rents will go up and drive prices for small homes to go up even more.

btw, they like warm weather so buy in CA, FL, and AZ.

Bellingham Bill says

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-W-Cliff-Dr-Santa-Cruz-CA-95060/95286785_zpid/

million-dollar lot, $500/yr property tax to keep it undeveloped

If you think they are $1M lots, you should be buying up Bodega Bay instead of complaining.

Over 50% investors in the LV market that eventually ran out of the greater fool to sell to?
Who could have seen this coming?

I wish it was true. I had made offers back in 2009 for Meridian condos, 1 block east of Ceasers Palace on Flamingo. 2 bedroom condos were $60,000 to 70,000, almost 90% off their peak prices. I did not buy as the banks ( all of them were foreclosures) refused to negotiate. A few months ago they were going for around $150,000. After getting all excited after reading this article, I went to Redfin to check what was available. I could not even find one condo for sale at this large complex.
That zero hedge web site has zero truth and zero credibility. It's for suckers.

Whatever happens, eliminate pre-existing coverage for all Rep/Con/Teas.They should not have gotten sick & when they did,they want Free Market insurance companies to cover them for cheap.Private insurance companies should be able to charge whatever they want & refuse coverage to any Rep/Con/Tea that has ever been sick.
This is America. Love it,or leave it.

You guys lost. Get over it.

edvard2 says

You guys lost. Get over it.

When we lose you lose?

Somebody has to work a grownass man's living wage, so the Liberals can tax them and manufacture Unicorn Farts and Pixie social fairy dust.

Consider us the wheels, when we stop turning, you'll have to get out and walk. And let me tell ya brother, it's a long way to the shop if you wanna sausage roll.

And in case you can't read Ducky's graph, Las Vegas inventory is down 10% (year-to-year) for November and sales are up 11%, according to Redfin.

Call it Crazy says

think the 800K people in NJ lost it... (their insurance, that is...), not "us guys"...

Ironic that it happened in a "blue" state......

still lost. too bad.and guess what? It will be the same tomorrow, the next day, and so on.

nope. You are incorrect. But it is correct that you guys lost the election, lost the healthcare debate, lost shutting down the government, and will keep on losing. So keep posting silly articles: Won't make a bit of difference except waste a bunch of time.

Oops. Which election was that 'we' lost? If you're referring to 2010 and 2012, the Republicans won more elections than the Democrats.

And, it doesn't waste time to remind voters exactly who lied to them and exactly who said they could keep their doctors, their healthcare plans, and save an average of $2500 per family if Obamacare passed.

We didn't lose the healthcare debate. One of the most liberal states in the U.S., Massachusetts, elected a Republican to be the deciding vote against Obamacare, but of course, the libs cheated on the process, the Healthcare bill was NOT implemented first in the House as mandated, and rushed a vote before the Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown could be sworn in.

You guys just keep your smug lies coming. Your day of reckoning is on its way.

Obligatory:

Since we are supposed to turn over all our personal info to Obamacare, I wonder if the govt will merge all their databases and simply manage everything from one. For example if you get a parking ticket, the gubmnt may simply deduct the money or tag it on to the premium.

For example Las Cruces, new Mexico is threatening to turn off gas, water and sewer services over unpaid photo radar tickets.

Now if there is a central database, then we are doomed. The NSA may be a precusor to a world controleld by big gubmnt.

jackrusse1l says

Oops. Which election was that 'we' lost? If you're referring to 2010 and 2012, the Republicans won more elections than the Democrats.

Oops. All of those tea party GOPer's who were sent in by their corporate backers failed to do what they were "supposed" to do for their handlers: Stop Obamacare at all costs. Hence like the election of all those Republicans did any good. Fail.jackrusse1l says

We didn't lose the healthcare debate.

Yes... you did.

Peter P? You mean tovarichpeterbot?

I predict the bubblebrainians of bubbleland will confuse their local market for the rest of the country and confuse this bifurcated housing market for one big raging bull market.

21. Roberto makes a comeback as Machete.

errc says

Peter P? You mean tovarichpeterbot?

Yes, corrected. I forgot to sort by number of postings and assumed he changed the name of the bot.

Dan8267 says

I predict that during 2014....

I agree with most or all of your predictions, but I will wait for video confirmation of #8 (AF and the realtor) - mostly because I think the video would make a great addition to PatNet.

curious2 says

Dan8267 says

I predict that during 2014....

I agree with most or all of your predictions, but I will wait for video confirmation of #8 (AF and the realtor) - mostly because I think the video would make a great addition to PatNet.

AF is smart enough to cannibalize anyone recording him skullfucking a realtor and to destroy the evidence.

Hi Dan, post of the year!
only thing is, to keep in character, you should have had at least 3 paragraphs per point.

"But it said last week that the federal government wouldn’t allow it to renew what it calls its Basic and Essential plans, which cover about 90,000 customers. Those plans capped the amount Horizon agreed to pay annually for benefits such as diagnostic tests, diabetes benefits and wellness visits"

So basically, they were saying, "Oh, you still have medical expenses? Sorry, we aren't paying any more." And you guys are mad because they aren't allowed to do that now. Seriously?

You know why New Jerseyans are going to have to pay so much for insurance? Because that fat fuck Chris Christie vetoed the bill to establish an insurance exchange. Way to look out for your constituents, there.

Yep
I wrote in June that this was going to happen
http://patrick.net/?p=1226117
http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/